Luck Retirement Shakes NFL Betting Markets

2025-26 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings shakes retirement markets betting Market insights from Josh Appelbaum . . .
The dust has settled on Andrew Luck’s shocking retirement announcement from the NFL. The 29-year-old star quarterback unexpectedly called it quits over the weekend. Luck cited injuries and being “mentally worn down” as the main reasons he hung up the cleats. 

Colts’ fans aren’t the only ones who will miss Luck. Bettors will, too. 

Luck went 49-34 against the spread (59%), winning +12.52 units with a 14.6% return on investment (according to BetLabsSports.com). This means a $100 spread bettor made $1,252 riding every Luck start throughout his 7-year career. 

On the moneyline, Luck went 53-33 (61.6%), winning +21.13 units with a 24.6% ROI. This includes a 17-20 record (45.9%) but +15.65 units as a dog (42.3% ROI).

The fallout from Luck’s retirement has been swift. At Circa Sports, the Colts moved from -180 to make the playoffs to -210 to not make the playoffs. Indianapolis also plummeted from -120 to +350 to win their division, +700 to +2100 to win the AFC and +1500 to +4500 to win the Super Bowl.

Indy’s season win total was adjusted from 9.5 (over -115) to 8 (under -120). In other words, the Colts were expected to go 10-6 or better with Luck and now are likely to go 7-9 or worse with Jacoby Brissett. 

How much is Luck worth to the spread? After opening at +3.5 for Week 1 against the Chargers, the Colts are now +7.


FOOTBALL ALMANAC – Expert Interview

Football Almanac is an NFL Prediction Guide that we can strongly recommend though we definitely don’t always arrive at the same conclusions.

Find out here who they are forecasting for Superbowl 54!

 


Video Lecture: Computer Power Rankings and Football Analytics

2025-26 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings video rankings power lecture football computer analytics

This video covers the basics and some of the nuances of developing and using computer models to forecast football games.

 


FF-Winners.com Reveals: Top Wagers for 2018 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year

2025-26 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings winners wagers rookie reveals offensive There’s no question that the 2018 NFL Draft will be defined by the five quarterbacks who were taken in the first round. But, it’s hard for most quarterbacks to see immediate success, given the steep learning curve they face when transitioning from the college game to the NFL.

Given that, who are the favorites to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award after this season? Here are three names to consider:

Ronald Jones (+3300) – They say the best gamblers aren’t so much looking at who’ll win, as much as they are looking for the best value for their wager. If you happen to be among the latter group, then running back Ronald Jones of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers might be right up your alley. Somewhat overlooked as the fifth running back taken in the 2018 NFL Draft, Jones was one of the most explosive running backs in the nation last year, finishing with 1,550 yards and 19 rushing touchdowns (both of which were top 10 among all running backs in college football). Playing within an offense that features skill position guys like Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson (and young talents on the cusp of breaking out, like O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin), there is plenty of space for Jones to gash defenses. It’s just a matter of time before he assumes the full-time job as the Buccaneers’ starting running back.

Sam Darnold (+1600) – Baker Mayfield was the surprise and Josh Allen was the prototype, which led to everyone forgetting the fact that Sam Darnold was the guy that most teams had declared as the best quarterback in the 2018 NFL Draft. The New York Jets – and their fans – should be thanking every religious being of their choosing for the fact that he fell to them at the #3 overall pick, because they might’ve finally solidified the position for the next decade. Darnold’s ability to scramble around the pocket and create big plays by delivering well-time darts down the field makes him eerily reminiscent of a bigger Tony Romo. Anyone paying attention to the happenings in the Tri-State area knows that Darnold looks like he has a stranglehold on the starting quarterback job for the Jets. If he has a good year, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him emerge as a surprise challenger for this award.

Saquon Barkley (+140) – In reality, everyone knows this award is Saquon Barkley’s to lose. The running back with the generational physical talents and well-rounded game is a virtual lock to accumulate at least 250 touches this year (if not substantially more), given the fact that the New York Giants invested the #2 overall pick in the draft on him. At 5’10 and 230lbs, with the strength of a linebacker and the speed of a cornerback, Barkley is like a human cheat code. An accurate comparison that many have made for him, given his talents as a runner and a pass catcher, as well as his size and his strength, is Todd Gurley – that’s the reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year. Without any sense of hyperbole, Barkley possesses that level of talent.


SHOCKING 90% Reliable NFL Betting Edge!

SUMMARY: IF THE POINTSPREAD IS SIX POINTS OR LESS, THE WINNER OF THE GAME (Underdog or Favorite)   WILL COVER THE POINTSPREAD 90 PERCENT OF THE TIME!  DOES THIS HELP YOU??

PODCAST: 4 Surprisingly Profitable NFL Betting Angles

These “systems” may provide you some excellent  betting ideas this season.   They agree with the principal that “Parity” in the NFL can be exploited by astute bettors. Most of the public and sportswriters “overreact” to recent performance.  By definition, “recent performance” is only a small sample.  Even sadder is all the experts and pundits making bold predictions in the off season when NO football is even being played! If you do “Big Data” computer analysis, you will discover that there are many things about predicting the NFL which are systematic but not always intuitive.

Tips for Betting on Football Underdogs.

Watch this Podcast:

 

 

SIMPLE: How to Use Regression Analysis to Help Predict NFL Scoring

This video is rather basic – but should give you some idea how a simple statistical method, “regression”, can be applied to predict NFL outcome.

PODCAST: Betting the NFL Win-Loss Numbers for 2019

We do not agree with some of the opinions is this video – but if you are a Win-Loss total bettor it should give you some good things to think about.

PODCAST: How the NFL 2019 Season will Play Out

Colin Cowherd can be annoying, but we find him to be a very sensible  NFL analyst – much better than those who get caught up in hype or create hype. To bet profitably – stay cool!


Is Tony Romo an NFL Psychic or is it a Scam?

2025-26 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings psychic Mr. Romo seems to have advance knowledge of NFL plays. Where is he getting his information from? Astute bettors want to know!

CLICK HERE!

WATCH: Fox Sports’s Colin Cowherd and FF-Winners AI Computer in Full Agreement on Divisional Playoff Bets

Colin Cowherd is an excellent  (though sometimes annoying) NFL analyst. We are pleased he agrees with all 4 of our picks this week!

PODCAST: How Mr. Whale Capper Uses Seismic Engineering to Predict Football Games

2025-26 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings whale seismic predict podcast football engineering capper

Listen and Learn!

CLICK HERE

PODCAST: What Every Bettor Must Know NOW About the Vegas Pointspread!

We think that you will find this video very informative. Among other things it
helps to explain why the FF-Winners power rankings and computer game picks are likely
to be consistent winning tools for years to come: they do not contain human bias , favoritism and they are not shortsighted. Moreover they adapt to evolving football strategy and performance. Enjoy! It is our pleasure to help you be successful.

PODCAST: Two Humanoids Pick NFL Week 13 Against the Pointspread

This show is entertaining? obnoxious? instructive?  accurate?

 

PODCAST: NFL Opening Line Report for Week 10 Bettors

 

Listening to this podcast weekly can improve your betting acumen. Recommended…

NFL WEEK 9 Opening Line Report (2018)

As is often the case ,The FF-Winners  AI Computer finds some of these lines to be way out of whack!

Each Week’s Picks are Available Monday 10PM PST at game-specific predictions

Week 8 NFL Best Bets by Humanoid

Colin is hitting 60 percent this season!

What Bettors Must Know Now About NFL Passing Versus Rushing

2025-26 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings versus rushing passing bettors about Can you identify the following crucial football concepts? For the answers CLICK HERE!

  • The shocking approach Bill Belichick took for the Giants defense in the 1991 Super Bowl
  • The problem Bill Walsh had in Cincinnati that changed the NFL forever
  • The type of play that sets a team back on the scoreboard
  • Whether running the ball sets up play action
  • How to save time handicapping the NFL

PODCAST: Picking Every Week 2 Game Against the Spread

One of These Guys was 12-4 ATS Last Week. Not bad…