Hey Mom, Can I Have the Keys to NFL Profits?

Hey Dad, Can I Have the Keys to NFL Profits?

The 2020 NFL MVP Wager

We like Kyler Murray this year as a long shot pick. He’s got some talent around him and he’s most likely going to take a step forward in his second year.

Statistical Keys to Winning Bets in the 2020 NFL Season

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Office Sports Betting  winning season  This guide should be on every bettor’s bulletin board:

Josh Appelbaum (VSIN.COM) writes:

Week 1 provides several profitable edges that bettors should be aware of. According to Bet Labs Sports, Week 1 divisional underdogs have gone 51-32 ATS (61.4%) since 2003. This is due to the built in familiarity between divisional opponents, which levels the playing field and benefits the team getting points. Big Week 1 dogs getting 6.5 points or more have also been a smart bet, going 38-22 ATS (63.3%).

Another profitable opportunity in Week 1 is backing teams that missed the playoffs the previous year against teams that made the playoffs. They’ve gone 59-46 ATS (56.2%). This is the ultimate buy-low value play because you’re capitalizing on recency bias. The public will be inclined to blindly back teams who made the playoffs because that’s the last thing they remember from the previous year. In turn, they’ll blindly fade non-playoff teams. This creates a contrarian spot where you’re taking advantage of shaded numbers.

Aside from studying the Week 1 lines, another key aspect of the 2020 schedule is focusing on bye weeks and Thursday Night Football matchups. These unique scheduling spots have provided a significant edge to bettors in the past.

NFL teams coming off a bye are 254-228 ATS (52.7%) since 2003. However, we see a massive difference between underdogs and favorites. Dogs are just 105-125 ATS (45.7%). However, favorites are an impressive 148-103 ATS (59%). Road favorites are even better, going 62-28 ATS (68.9%). This is likely due to the fact that the betting public overvalues home field advantage, providing road favorites an increased contrarian edge.

Why are favorites off a bye so profitable? Because the extra week off disproportionally benefits the “better” team. Not only do they have more time to rest and rehab injuries but the coaching staff has two weeks to game-plan for the next opponent.

Bye weeks start in Week 5 and run through Week 13. Here are the bye weeks for all 32 teams.

Week 5: Lions, Packers

Week 6: Raiders, Patriots, Saints, Seahawks

Week 7: Colts, Jaguars, Vikings, Titans

Week 8: Cardinals, Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Steelers, Redskins

Week 9: Bengals, Browns, Rams, Eagles

Week 10: Falcons, Cowboys, Chiefs, Chargers

Week 11: Bills, Bears, Dolphins, Giants, Jets, 49ers

Week 12: No bye teams

Week 13: Panthers, Bucs

After bye weeks, the next scheduling spot to look out for is Thursday Night Football. The short week provides another pronounced edge bettors should be aware of. Since 2003, Thursday Night favorites have gone 113-83 ATS (57.7%). Home favorites are even better (73-50 ATS, 59.3%). Just as the extra time off benefits the “better” team, so does the short week. With both teams on a quick turnaround, the team with better players and a superior coaching staff has the advantage, especially if they’re at home at don’t have to travel.

Here’s the complete list of Thursday Night games this season

Week 2: Bengals at Browns

Week 3: Dolphins at Jaguars

Week 4: Broncos at Jets

Week 5: Bucs at Bears

Week 6: Chiefs at Bills

Week 7: Giants at Eagles

Week 8: Falcons at Panthers

Week 9: Packers at 49ers

Week 10: Colts at Titans

Week 11: Cardinals at Seahawks

Week 13: Cowboys at Ravens

Week 14: Patriots at Rams

Week 15: Chargers at Raiders

Week 12 is Thanksgiving. The three games on Turkey Day include Texans at Lions (12:30 p.m. ET), Redskins at Cowboys (4:30 p.m. ET) and Ravens at Steelers (8:20 p.m. ET).

Historically, favorites have crushed it on Thanksgiving. Since 2003, they’ve gone 31-13 ATS (70.5%).

Who will Win the NFL 2020 Top Player Awards?

Welcome to NFL Betting

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting Web Resources  welcome betting  All over the USA, football is currently the most popular sport to bet on. Whether you want to bet on the NFL or even on college football, you have a myriad options when it comes to betting – from different types of bets, odds, bookies and more, it’s a vast but highly interesting world. It can get a little daunting for beginners though, so today we’ll be taking a look at all the NFL betting essentials, ensuring you can get started with ease and get involved in all the excitement. Whether you’re a rookie or just a little rusty, we’ll get you all up to speed. Without further ado, let’s dive in!

Ways to Bet on the NFL

You’ve got a wide array of ways to bet on the NFL. The most simple type of bet, and one of the most popular, is the moneyline – this means you’re simply betting on which team will come out the winner, regardless of the margin of victory. Odds will translate into how much you get paid back for your bet. For example, if a team is a strong favorite, they’ll be listed with a negative odd – such as Patriots (-200) – which means that if you bet $200 on them to win and they do come out victorious, you’ll get $100 profit.

Then, you can start to go deeper and more complex – and either go with your gut or dive into the books, records, statistics and more to make a careful, informed decision, it’s as shallow or deep as you want it to be. Some more detailed bets are:

  1. Bet on a pass completion
  2. Betting on whether the following play can be first down, turnover, score or kick
    3.Betting on what kind of play the offense will call next: Run or pass
    4. Betting on NFL futures – betting on which team will be the eventual Super Bowl champion, divisional champion or number of wins that a specific team will earn during the regular season

These are just a few examples of the bets you can place – and lots of bookies allow you to place them when the game’s paused all throughout the game. If you’re into these, it’s important to feel when the play’s momentum starts to change so you can react appropriately.

The Pointspread:

 The point spread (also simply known as the “spread”) is one of the most common bets as well when betting on NFL or college football odds. The spread entails assigning a betting line that a team is either favored to win by or predicted to lose by. Negative betting lines such as -5.5 show that the team is the favorite out of the two and expected to win by a margin of 5.5 points. On the other hand, positive betting lines such as +8.5 indicate that a particular team is an underdog and expected to lose the game by 8.5 points.

How to Improve Your Chances

While betting on the NFL is a fun and exciting experience whether you win or lose, it’s always better if you get a sweet payoff at the end. In order to improve your chances of making the right bets you’ve got a few strategies you can take advantage of.

Only use money you can afford to lose – not only will this keep you safe at all times, but it will also relax your mind and ensure you make better, more rational decisions when betting. Less stress = better bets.
Only bet around 5 percent of your bankroll at a time – if you’re starting bankroll is $2000, only bet around $100 each time. This will allow you to recover from losses and slowly but surely turn a profit.

Do your due diligence – even though you can bet with your gut for fun, you will want to study up before you make larger bets with confidence. Learning the main history of the teams, the players, the stadiums, the coaches, how the weather will be like, among other details, is all part of doing your due diligence. It can be exhausting but also quite entertaining – if you want to skip this step and still get the rewards you can always go with some pro NFL betting advice, picks and information from experts that have already done all the work for you. There are a few excellent services out there – you can read this guide to discover the best ones.
Practice – you can read and theorize as much as you want, nothing beats hands-on experience. If you really want to get good at betting you need to go out there and place some bets. Learn from your mistakes and constantly improve, aiming to turn yourself into a confident, successful NFL bettor.  Of course, for free computer-based picks  you should be using FF-Winners.Com!

Conclusion

And there you have it folks – a quick, straightforward but highly effective introduction to the world of NFL betting. Reading this article while the NFL season hasn’t yet begun? Well, you can always take the opportunity to start getting ready for it! We hope this handy guide has been helpful but remember – this is just the start. Familiarize yourself with the teams, with the coaches and with the game, go out there and place some paper bets first (fake money) to get some hands-on experience and always keep the tips we’ve discussed above in mind. Thank you for reading and as always – good luck!

Amazing NFL Betting Statistic

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Sports Betting  statistic betting amazing

 

No NFL Superbowl Champion(currently Denver)  has covered the pointspread for the first 5 games of the following year :).  Denver is 4-0 Against the Spread this year!

 

NFL 2020: Who Will Be Drafted When? You Can Bet On It!

The 2020 NFL Draft doesn’t begin until April 23, 2020 in Las Vegas but it’s never too early to look at NFL Draft odds for the No. 1 overall pick.

14 of the 20 No. 1 overall picks this century have been quarterbacks, so keep that in mind with the NFL Draft odds below.

PODCAST: Sports Betting: Be Cool. Not a Fool

FF-Winners believes that flat betting is the way to go. That is, bet the same amount for each play. Chasing, or increasing bet size based on your last bet (or series of bets), is not recommended.

Over time, you may hear about various systems where you increase your bet size “knowing” that you are due to win sooner or later. In general, these systems don’t work. Eventually, a bad streak occurs and you are betting a recklessly large amount to recoup losses.

In general, many of these approaches might seem to improve short-term performance, but at the huge expense of increasing your risk of ruin. A bad stretch could endanger your bankroll fairly quickly.

Professional money managers, as well as sensible sports investors, will agree that you should minimize the chances of blowing out your investment portfolio. Flat betting will help you ride the ups and downs of sports investing!

OMG! Bookies Cheat!

They don’t really “cheat” usually!  But they may be clueless about the future outcome of the game!

NFL Guru’s Betting Notebook Exposed!

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  notebook exposed betting  Inside this secret black book we uncovered some real gems!

1. “Since 2005, road underdogs with a losing record have covered the spread at a shocking 55.5% clip from 2005 to 2019!”

2. “In Week 1, non-playoff teams cover the spread at an amazing 65% rate when facing off against a team who made the playoffs the year prior.”

3. “When a team loses a game by more than 21 points, they cover the spread the following week at a 59% rate since 2005”.

4. “From 2000 to 2018, an NFL team that rushes for 30-plus yards more than their opponent covers the spread at an almost unbelievable 75% rate.” (The difficulty with applying this statistic to your betting strategy is that you can’t rely (necessarily) on past data, but rather, you must predict how the rushing yards will play out for each team.)

5. “From 2003 to 2018, teams that have a winning percentage of .800 or better after Week 12 have a 43.6% win rate against the spread.” Thus, underdogs in these situations are a particularly profitable play.

WATCH: NFL Betting 101 – What You Should Know.

NFL betting is fun and really not very complicated. If you have any questions,  just ask us at  customerservice@ff-winners.com.

Guru’s NBA Betting System Has Finally Been Revealed!

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Sports Betting  system revealed finally betting  “Yesterday, we  saw the Lakers upset the Clippers 112-103 as 2.5-point dogs. The important takeaway, however, was the total. It opened at 227.5, closed at 226.5 and landed on 115, easily cashing the under. Historically, when two elite teams go head-to-head the under has been a smart bet. This is likely due to an added emphasis on defense, a more competitive effort and also a heavier-than-usual public bias toward betting the other between two great teams.

When two teams with 60% win percentages or higher face off the under is 974-797 (55%) since 2005 according to Bet Labs Sports. If the total falls by at least one point (a sign of sharp action), the elite team under improves to 57%.

The trend is even better if the elite teams come from the same division. This is due to built in familiarity. Each team knows what to expect from the other, specifically when it comes to game planning and defending. When two elite teams face off from the same division, the under is 195-135 (59%) since 2005. “

–Josh Appelbaum 2020

Don’t Bet Parlays! Do This Instead!

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Sports Betting  parlays instead  By Josh Appelbaum (VSiN.com)

“Parlay Patz,” a 23-year-old sports bettor from New York, was charged on Wednesday with “transmitting threats in interstate or foreign commerce” by the Justice Department. Benjamin Tucker Patz’s sports betting renown emerged over the last year for cashing in on a series of massive parlays totaling more than a half-million dollars. But now he is in deep trouble for allegedly making violent online threats to college and pro players who struck out or missed shots and caused him to lose bets. If convicted, Patz would face up to 5 years in prison.

The first and most obvious takeaway is that this kind of behavior is totally unacceptable and, worst of all, criminal. If you’ve been betting sports long enough, you know that tough losses are part of the game. Bad bets can be crushing, but that’s no excuse for threatening players who fail to come through for you in the clutch.

The second takeaway has to do with parlays themselves. Public bettors love betting parlays because they represent the ultimate get-rich-quick money grab. By combining multiple bets into one, you can quickly turn $10 into $100 or $100 into $1000. However, parlays are dangerous and considered the penny slot of sports betting: highly attractive but also a big loser for the bettor and big winner for the house. As I detail in my book The Everything Guide to Sports Betting, the average hold on an individual bet is about 5% according to the Nevada Gaming Control Board. However, the average hold on a parlay is closer to 30%. This means the house makes a killing off parlays.

It’s hard enough to win one bet, so the more bets you layer on the more risk you assume. A better approach is to employ flat betting. This means betting each game individually and only risking one unit and 3% of your bankroll per play. Think of it this way: if you have a 5-team parlay and you go 4-1, you lose the entire parlay. But if you bet all five games individually and go 4-1 you win roughly three units.

If you want to bet a parlay every once in a while, all the power to you. Just don’t make it your most common form of betting. You are playing right into the sportsbook’s hands. Also, reading about “Parlay Patz” makes you think betting parlays can be a huge success. But how many losses did Patz suffer in order to cash his big hits?

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Three Free Agents that Could Scramble the NFL Betting Markets in 2020

NFL  football is definitely a team sport. But one player added to the right team at  just  the right time can have a ripple effect throughout the entire team and organization. 


PODCAST: How to Bet On the NFL and Win?

 

We disagree with this video’s statement that “everybody knows everything about the NFL!”

A more precise statement would be  “everybody thinks that they know everything about the NFL!”.

We have found that most of the betting public is biased by  the boring and usually redundant NFL views of the national media and only have a weak understanding of how  to use probability and statistics over time.   Our AI has taught itself to bet contrarian to these biases and weaknesses.

 


Amazing Tips for Betting on March Madness

Remember: Try to keep all your wagers for the same amount. This is the number one rule of sports betting money management.

PODCAST: What is the Sports Betting Moneyline?

The money line allows you to bet on the winner of the game, ignoring
pointspread. The odds are adjusted to make them approximately equal.


Long Shot Picks for Superbowl 55!

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  superbowl picks  Super Bowl LV: Early Longshot Projections  

Kansas City captured its first Super Bowl in 50 years when MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to a come-from-behind victory over San Francisco in Super Bowl LIV. Heading into the offseason, it’s never too early to begin looking at next year.

The Chiefs (+500) are, of course, the early favorite to win it all again in 2020. What Kansas City – and New England and everyone before them – has shown the rest of the NFL is a certain recipe that makes a Super Bowl possible. First, it’s all the about the quarterback. A running game is nice and a top-level defense is even better.

With that in mind, what teams might be a nice longshot value pick for 2020? We thought you’d never ask.You might want to wager on  one or more  of these outcomes at a USA online casino!

The Not-So-Longshot

The Philadelphia Eagles won their last four regular season games in 2019 to capture the NFC East. They were ousted in the first round of the playoffs by Seattle, but the 2020 Eagles could be a value pick at +1400 to win next season’s Super Bowl.

The Eagles have the quarterback in Carson Wentz (4,039 yards passing, 27 TDs) as well as a solid running game and a defense that features two very good edge rushers in Brandon Graham (8.5 sacks) and Derek Barnett (6.5).

If you want a bit more value, Green Bay and Seattle check in at +1500. For Seattle, it appears all the Seahawks need is QB Russell Wilson. He almost wills Seattle to victory. The same is true in Green Bay where veteran Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to a 13-3 finish and an NFC North title in 2019.

Dallas (+1600) always has one of the NFL’s best rushing attacks and QB Dak Prescott finished second in the NFL in passing with 4,902 yards. The Cowboys success will hinge on getting Prescott signed this offseason.

True Longshots

If you want a true longshot, look no further than the AFC South. Houston (10-6) won the division with QB DeShaun Watson (3,852 yards, 26 TDs) and a top-10 running game led by Carlos Hyde (1,070 rushing yards). The Texans led the Super Bowl champion Chiefs 24-0 in the postseason but imploded and lost 51-31. If the Houston defense can return to form in 2020, it might make them a nice longshot pick at +2000.

The better longshot pick is Tennessee. At +2200, the Titans offer tremendous value especially after surprising everyone by playing for the AFC title last year. NFL Comeback Player of the Year Ryan Tannehill is back at quarterback and the Titans will return the league’s leading rusher in Derrick Henry (1,540 yards, 16 TDs). Under head coach Mike Vrabel, the Titans are always sound on defense and, as a result, could find themselves right back where they left off in 2019.

The Ultimate Longshot

Remember, Kansas City’s opponent San Francisco was 4-12 the year before playing the Super Bowl. Thinking along those lines and remembering the recipe for success, the 2020 ultimate longshot bet to win Super Bowl LV is…the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Steelers are given +2600 odds to win, which would be a nice payout should it happen – and it could. QB Ben Roethlisberger will return from an injury last season and the defense is loaded. T.J. Watt could have easily won the NFL’s Rookie of the Year after recording 14.5 sacks, 55 tackles, 23 tackles for loss, eight pass breakups, eight forced fumbles, and two interceptions. An experienced quarterback and one of the NFL’s best defenses could propel Pittsburgh to a surprising Lombardi Trophy.