Chicago Bears Bad News Again In 2015-6 (archival post)

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Sports Betting Team News  chicago bears again

How many games will the Chicago Bears win this year? Sportsbooks have set the betting line at 7.0.

 

 But our artificial intelligence computer  has the Bears ranked 29th of 32 teams with only Washington,  Oakland and Tennessee ranked lower. With Green Bay, Detroit and Minnesota ranked 4th, 11th and 19th ,respectively, Chicago is simply outmatched in their division. The bottom line is that the Bears are very weak on defense, careless and aging on offense and  face a  tough schedule in 2015-6. Newly acquired coach John Fox is in for a long season.

 

Despite a lot of offensive talent on the roster, 2014 was a disaster for the Bears.  They only won 5 games and averaged less than 20 points per game. This led to the firing of coach Marc Trestman and the trading away   of wide receiver Brandon Marshall to the New York Jets. In 2015 Alshon Jeffery will assume the top wide receiver spot and be paired with  rookie WR Kevin White out of West Virginia. We also see newly acquired Eddie Royal and TE Martellus Bennett being targeted. This is only an average group of receivers. Last season, QB Jay Cutler had the highest completion percentage and most touchdowns thrown in a season in his career. But sadly, Mr. Cutler simply did not deliver at critical moments. He was responsible for 21 turnovers!

 

If Cutler, does not improve, look for him to be yanked early in the season and the tumultous process of finding a suitable replacement beginning. Although he rushed for more than 1000 yards last season, Matt Forte  carried the ball less than in recent previous years. In 2015, we see Forte possibly having a big year with increased workload as the play calling will be more run-oriented with  coach  Fox. But it is equally possible his durability will start slipping at this point in his career. The Bears offense is also crippled by a poor offensive line.

 

On top of these troubles the once feared defense gave up 27.6  points per game. The defense has not been significantly upgraded in the offseason.  As evidence, in the third preseason game against Cincinatti the defense was completely flat and listless in a 21-10 loss in which the Bengals completed their first 13 passes.

 

And, unfortunately, The Bears schedule is brutal with their opponents having a combined .531 winning percentage, 5 of their first 8  are against playoff teams from 2014! Specifically, they play Green Bay, Arizona, at Seattle, Oakland, at Kansas City, at Detroit, bye, Minnesota, at San Diego, at St. Louis, Denver, at Green Bay, San Francisco, Washington, at Minnesota, at Tampa Bay, and finish with Detroit at home. With Jay Cutler, a weak defense  and a challenging schedule it is very hard to envision where 7 or more wins will come from.


Why Smart Bettors are Flocking to the Buffalo Bills for 2015-6 (archival article)

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Archival Sports Betting Team News  week 2 computer smart flocking buffalo bills bettors

 

 

How many games will the Buffalo Bills win this year? Sportsbooks have set the betting line at 8.5.  Surprisingly, our Artificial Intelligence computer Beardog has the Bills ranked 5th behind New England, Seattle, Dallas and Green Bay due to its strong defense.

 

Buffalo has a new coach in Rex Ryan whose unusual formations, blitzes and overall defensive expertise should further strengthen the defense. We project the defensive line to have about 62 sacks this season. Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus and Jerry Hughes are as deadly a unit as any in the NFL. They forced 6 fumbles last year.Last year Buffalo was fourth in yards and points given up. There is absolutely no reason that prowess shouldn’t continue this season.

 

If Tom Brady’s suspension is upheld the Bills and their awesome defense will face a green Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 2. Ralph Wilson Stadium is one of the most difficult stadiums for opposing teams to play in due to the rowdy fans and bitter weather.Most of the Bills strong opponents in the next season will be played at home.

 

Hopefully Rex Ryan is smart enough to not play E.J. Manuel. With Manuel on the bench, Tyrod Taylor or Kyle Orton will be in, thus their quarterback problems should dissipate especially if Taylor plays the first game. But in any event Sammy Watkins is a highly talented receiver who we project to have 70 catches and 1000 yards in 2015.

 

Finally, the running back by committee should keep the backfield healthy for what looks like a productive season. LeSean McCoy, recently acquired from the Philadelphia Eagles, is expected to have  recovered  from a hamstring pull and will be supported by capable veteran Fred Jackson. In addition, the Bills also have Boobie Dixon as well as Karlos Williams the impressive rookie from Florida State. Look for Ryan to pound the ball on the ground, attack with his defense and roll easily to 9 victories or more!

 


WEEK 6 BETTING NOTES

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  notes betting   Today marks the 6th Sunday of the NFL season. Through five weeks of play, we’ve seen a distinct advantage for underdogs. Dogs have gone 46-32 ATS (59%) according to Bet Labs Sports. A $100 bettor taking each one would be up $1,075. Not too bad. Road dogs have been especially profitable, going 34-18 ATS (65.4%). Divisional dogs have gone 15-9 ATS (62.5%). 

With these trends in mind, let’s take a look at five games receiving heavy smart money on Sunday. 

9:30 a.m. ET: Carolina Panthers (3-2) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3)

Who’s ready for an early morning NFC South London sweat? The Panthers started the season 0-2 with Cam Newton, but have now gone a perfect 3-0 with backup Kyle Allen. The Bucs have been Jekyll and Hyde through five weeks, rotating losses and wins each time out. This game opened with the Bucs listed as short 1-point favorites. Despite receiving just a slight majority of bets, we’ve seen a huge line move to Carolina (+1 to -2.5). Sharps hit the Panthers everywhere from +1 to a pick’em to -1.5. One big advantage to Carolina: Favorites have gone 13-9 ATS in London (59%) since 2003 according. We’ve seen some smart money drop the total from 48.5 to 47.5. Tottenham Stadium is expecting 15 mph winds, an edge to the Under. 

1 p.m. ET: Houston Texans (3-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)

The Chiefs lost their first game of the season last week, falling to the Colts at home 19-13 as 10.5 favorites on Sunday Night Football. The public says Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City are a powerhouse and are due for a big bounce back win and cover at home. But sharps are buying low on the Texans to keep it close. Houston is playing well as of late, winning three of their last four including a 53-32 blowout over the Falcons last week. This line opened with KC listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Despite two thirds of bets backing the Chiefs, the line has fallen all the way to -4. This sharp reverse line movement was caused by pros loading up on the Texans plus the points. Since 2003, dogs receiving at least 2.5-points of reverse line movement have covered 55.7% of the time. Sharps also love this under. The total opened at 55.5 and the public is pounding the Over, yet it’s fallen to 54.5. 

1 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks (4-1) at Cleveland Browns (2-3)

This line has been all over the place. The Browns initially opened as 2.5-point home favorites. The public remembers Cleveland being embarrassed 31-3 by San Francisco on Monday night and wants nothing to do with them. This line opened with Cleveland listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Nearly seven-out-of-ten bets are backing Seattle. This lopsided support caused the line to move to Seattle -2.5. But then sharps hammered the Browns plus the points, causing the line to fall down to a pick’em. Essentially, sharps waited for heavy public betting to move the number bigly to Seattle so they could get extra points with the Browns at home. Teams coming off a 20-point loss or more have covered the next game 54.1% of the time since 2003. Pros have also targeting the under. The total opened at 47 and has been bet down to 46. The Dawg Pound is expecting 15 mph winds.

1 p.m. ET: New Orleans (4-1) at Jacksonville (2-3)

On paper this looks like an easy layup with New Orleans. After all, the Saints are 4-1 and have won three straight. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is 2-3 and just lost to Carolina 34-27. So why on Earth did the oddsmakers open this game as a pick’em? Public bettors are hammering the Saints. But despite New Orleans receiving two thirds of bets, the line has moved to Jacksonville -3. Why would the books continue to hand out additional points to public Saints backers when they’re already on New Orleans to begin with? Because pros have been getting down hard on the Jags, creating big liability for the house and forcing the books to move the number bigly in their favor. An added bonus to the Jags: Jerome Boger is the lead referee. Since 2003, home teams have 55% ATS (+12.96 units) with Boger as the lead official. Smart money has also hit the Under. The total has fallen from 44 to 42.5 since opening.

4:05 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers (4-0) at Los Angeles Rams (3-2)

This late afternoon NFC West showdown is the most popular and heavily bet game of the day. The Rams have lost two straight, including a 30-29 heartbreaker to the Seahawks last Thursday night. The public says Los Angeles is a great team and “due” for a big bounce back win and cover at home. But sharps aren’t buying the conventional wisdom. They’re backing the undefeated 49ers in a rare contrarian road dog spot. The Rams opened as a 4-point home favorite. Two thirds of bets are backing Los Angeles. This heavy betting pushed the line up to 4.5. That’s when you saw wiseguys get down hard on the 49ers, causing the line to fall all the way down to 3. Todd Gurley’s injury was also a factor in the line movement. The stud RB is out with a thigh contusion. The 49ers are contrarian in a heavily bet game and also a road divisional dog (10-5 ATS this season). Pros have also hit the over, pushing the total from 48.5 to 50.5. 

More sharp action

Dolphins +4.5 to +4 vs Redskins
Vikings -3 to -3.5 vs Eagles


How to Excel at Sports Betting

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Sports Betting  sports excel betting   Introduction

The world of betting and gambling often draws mixed reactions. The people who bet regularly have all praises for it while those who have not tried or have  not got  had good experience with it, do not vouch for it. However, like any other game or profession, betting too is often more than fun and can  become a serious business.  Read this article and find some useful information on getting started with sports betting.

Getting started

There are different forms of betting. The regular way to bet is to visit a reputed casino like bcasino and play different kinds of card games or similar games and to put your money as bets. However, there are other forms of betting as well. In sports betting, you have to bet on different kind of sports as per the situation and options available for you.  To get started, you have to first select a sport on which you are interested in betting. It is not required to have  any skills to bet. However, it does require skill to make a successful bet – and to do it successfully on a regular basis requires much more than luck or chance. So let’s find out how the world of sports betting works!

Knowledge and grip of the sport

When you have to bet on a sport, you should first of all select a sport. So the next question arises is what kind of sport you should pick? Well you should basically pick a sport on which you have knowledge about. There are hundreds of popular sports in the world and it might be that you are aware of most of them. However in order to do better, you should have a firm grip and grasp on the sport on which you would like to bed.

You might think that you know lots of things about the sport and you can bet on it on any given day. However, there are different factors and refinements that are needed to enhance your knowledge of the sport. Let’s try to understand it with help of an example:

Let us pick up a sport first. If you like to bet on tennis, then you should be a Tennis fan. You might know who is the present world number one in the men’s tennis and you might be aware about lots of other things. But in order to bet, you have to analyze a particular match or a tournament. In case of tennis, if you concentrate on the present situation, the hot bids to  would be on whether Nadal  would overtake Novak Djokovic and end up  also as well number one by the end of the year? Now in order to get this correctly, you have to analyze different factors.

Unbiased analysis

First of all, you should check out the present points difference between the two players. If the difference is too much, then it is unlikely that Nadal is going to over take Djokovic. The next thing that you have to analyze is the schedule of the two players. You should ensure and confirm the kinds of tournaments that they are going to play in the next few months till December. These are the tournaments in which they can gain points.

At the same time, you should be aware about how tennis rankings system works. In some cases, a certain player does not participate in a particular tournament that he has participated last year, then he would lose those points. Another important factor that you have to analyze is the fitness level. If the fitness level of the players is questionable, then it is unlikely that they are going to participate in tournaments and even if they do they are not likely to perform well.

Now as you can understand,  all this analysis is required for knowledge and great understanding of the sport concerned. The same case is with the other sports. 

Learning from experience

Apart from the knowledge of the sport, you should also understand other aspects of a profession. If you would like to become successful in sports betting or any other profession, there is a mental aspect that you also have to deal with. You should know how to deal with the tough times. You should be aware of handling the situation and when things are not working your way. This is the most important thing to learn in life. You should be able to hold your emotions and be patient with results.

If you can survive the tough times, then you can always look back and learn from the past mistakes that you have made and improve  on them.  Maintain this on a regular basis, and grow your experience of the game of the sport of the profession and ultimately you are able to use that experience in future to enhance your gambling or sports betting skills. If you follow these instructions and  learn from your own experience and use your own brain and common sense  when required, you would gradually be able to master the art of sports betting or any other profession for that matter.

Final words

 A final word of advice would be to not rush  things and start betting great amounts of money. This can cause  heavy losses. Until and unless you are sure about your bets, try to start with small amounts and gradually learn from the experience and then increase the betting amounts. In this way, you will develop yourself as a good professional and successful sports bettor.


The Quickest & Easiest Ways To Winning NFL BETTING

Using Multiple Sportbooks is a no-brainer for those who care about growing their bottom line. Always, shop around for the best odds!


PODCAST: NFL WEEK 5 NFL Betting Preview

This program gives some pretty strong betting trends and angles. But which ones will continue?

Thursday Nite Betting Preview: Eagles Versus Packers

8:20 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-0)

Tuley’s Take on Thursday Night Football . . .
After two Must-Not-See TV games the past two Thursday nights, we get a marquee NFL matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles visiting the Green Bay Packers (8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network).

It has lost some of its luster with the injury-plagued Eagles’ slow start (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS), but QB Carson Wentz wasn’t in a panic in his press conference the other day and I almost expected him to pull an Aaron Rodgers and tell fans to “R-E-L-A-X.” Despite their relative woes, Wentz and the offense is still averaging 25.3 points per game (the Packers only average 19.3) and their losses to the Falcons and Lions both could have been wins (though admittedly they were lucky to escape with a come-from-behind victory over the Redskins in the season-opener).

Still, I still have the Eagles rated as the better team and there’s definite value in getting more than a field goal.

Granted, the Packers are off to a great start (3-0 SU & ATS) and are a 4-point favorites as of Wednesday night after getting bet at high as -5.5 on Monday, but I’m ready to fade them as they’re not as good as their record indicates. I’m especially not buying the narrative that they have a dominant defense (allowing an NFL-best 11.7 points per game) as they benefited from catching the Bears before their offense got in sync and the Vikings would have scored more and beaten them if not for Kirk Cousins’ unforced errors.

While the best bet is on the Eagles +4, I also like Over 46 as both offenses should have success and this total is shaded a little low as Unders are 8-2 so far in NFL primetime games this season (and I’m willing to fade that trend as well).

The play: Eagles +4

Get Tuley’s Takes in this week’s Point Spread Weekly or on VSiN.com.


The Best Sports for Betting

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Gambling Sports Betting  sports betting   If you are a sports enthusiast who loves to place bets on your favorite teams, you need to consider the following;

  • How many sports to bet on?
  • Which sports to bet on?

It is easier to make decisions if you are a sports fan first then a bettor. You can decide to wager on all of the sports that you are familiar with and love to watch. This approach proves logical since those are the sports that you understand best. It is easier to bet on those sports as it will give you a better opportunity of winning money.

However, it is not easier to make such decisions. It is normal for most people to follow diverse sports, and thus, not certain if they want to bet on them all or just select their favorite. There are others who only follow a single sport, and are therefore not sure if they need to limit themselves to just that one particular sport. There are also those who would like to try their luck in sports betting but rarely follow any sports closely.

Definitely, there are sports that we presume are better, though it may not be everyone’s opinion. Your best sport to bet on might be a terrible option for someone else. Therefore, one should consider a number of factors before you place that bet. You need to consider whether it’s perfect to wager on one sport, several sports, or diverse sports. 

The best sports for betting highly depend on what part of the world one is located. Some sports might be well-known in some regions, but not so favored in others. However, a few sports can be popular with bettors all around the world. In terms of the total number of people who bet on them, some sports definitely rank higher than others, these include soccer, American football, basketball, tennis, boxing, and formula 1. Therefore, you need to consider what’s best for you.

Those sports that regularly attract huge viewing audiences, are also the ones that people wager on the most. The reason why most bettors would consider placing their bets on these sports is that they offer many betting opportunities. Information on such sports is also easily accessible and widely available. Bookmakers also offer lots of betting options for these sports.

How to make the best decisions

The more information you have at your disposal, the better the chances of making good decisions. If you find making money more important to you than having fun, then you need to consider;

  • How much time are you willing to dedicate to your betting?
  • What will give you the best chance of making good money?
  • What are the best betting options?

 


How Vegas Views The LeSean McCoy for Kiko Alonso Trade (archival article)

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Archival Sports Betting  views vegas trade mccoy lesean alonso

When ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported Thursday night that the Eagles have agreed to trade All-Pro RB LeSean McCoy to the Bills for LB Kiko Alonso, it came as a major shock to many NFL observers: “How could the Eagles, on the brink of Super Bowl contention, let their best player go?”

But Las Vegas sports books barely blinked. Neither the Westgate LV SuperBook nor MGM Resorts, in fact, made any adjustments to their Super Bowl odds. Station Casinos shortened the Bills from 30-to-1 to 25-to-1 and kept the Eagles at 22-to-1. The only move made at The Wynn was a lengthening of the Eagles’ futures price.

“No movement on Bills – they are already low at 50-1 due to bets,” said Wynn sports book director John Avello. “We can’t go much lower until they show they are a contender. We took Philly from 15-to-1 up to 20-to-1. Who will run the ball for them?”

Right now, those running the ball for Philly are Darren Sproles, Chris Polk and former Oregon Duck Kenjon Barner.

Apparently, McCoy and Eagles coach Chip Kelly’s relationship had soured recently, and as we saw last season with All-Pro WR DeSean Jackson, you either get with Kelly’s program or get out. In this case, Kelly was able to grab another one of his Oregon guys in Alonso — he now has nine former Ducks players on his Eagles roster.

Kelly’s offensive system has proven to be effective with interchangeable parts, and by trading McCoy and earlier releasing DE Trent Cole and CB Cary Williams, Philly is projected to be $48 million under the 2015 salary cap. As great as McCoy has been, the Eagles should be able to find a suitable system back either in the draft or through free-agency.

Among the interesting free-agent RBs available is C.J. Spiller, who now knows he won’t be back with Buffalo. The prized free-agent back is DeMarco Murray, and Kelly could kill two birds with one stone by signing him – fill the void left by McCoy and make the Cowboys weaker within the NFC East.

For the Bills, new coach Rex Ryan has inherited a defense on the brink greatness, and a back like McCoy boosts his chances to compete with the Patriots in the AFC East. The Bills have reportedly also made a trade with the Vikings to acquire QB Matt Cassel.

Bills fans should be excited about 2015, and Eagles fans should trust that Kelly has a plan. After taking over a 4-12 squad, Kelly has gone 10-6 in each of his first two seasons. McCoy’s replacement may not have 2,146 yards from scrimmage like McCoy did in 2013, but the system will produce numbers regardless of who in running the ball.

The best bet is that this trade is a win for both teams.


PODCAST: Walter Sharp’s NFL Week 2 Preview!

This show teaches some of the basics of NFL handicapping that the average bettor has never
been educated on. You can learn a lot from Walter Sharp!