Earth-based Humanoid “Brent Musburger” Bets on This Week’s Championship Games

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting Team News  musburger humanoid games earth championship brent based   January 17, 2020 03:06 PM by Brent Musburger:
Championship Sunday last year produced an anomaly. Both road teams won.

Before those overtime victories by New England and the Los Angeles Rams, home teams had won 10 titles in a row. I am calling for a return to the norm this year but for only one of our new champions to cover the spread.

Tennessee (O/U 53) at Kansas City (–7)

3:05 p.m. EST Sunday (CBS)

For underdog lovers, the Titans are the flavor of the playoffs. I cashed tickets backing them against the Patriots and then last week against the AFC’s No. 1 seed, the Baltimore Ravens. I’m tempted, because the Saturday divisional playoff winners are 5-1 ATS on Championship Sunday the last three years. The Titans fit that description.

Patrick Mahomes has convinced me otherwise. Broadcasting from the Raiders’ radio booth the last two years, I have watched Mahomes demonstrate why he’s the NFL’s No. 1 quarterback. In dominating K.C.’s four victories, Mahomes threw for 1,194 yards and 11 touchdowns to seven receivers. The Chiefs outscored the Raiders in those four games 143-55.

Titans backers love to point out that they beat the Chiefs in Week 10 in Nashville and that when championship games are rematches, the winners of the first games are 6-1 over the last five years. Strong stuff. But in that wild 35-32 loss, Mahomes threw for 446 yards and three touchdowns.

Mahomes is the real deal, and I believe he would have played in the Super Bowl a year ago had the Patriots not won the overtime coin flip and scored a touchdown, ending the game before the Chiefs got a fair chance. (Yes, I hate the overtime rule.)

Derrick Henry has been fabulous for Tennessee, and I’m predicting he’ll rush for 150 yards. Ryan Tannehill is the comeback quarterback of the year. Mike Vrabel is the AFC coach of the year. But Mahomes and the Chiefs will rule the day.

Chiefs 34, Titans 24. Give the 7.

Green Bay (O/U 46) at San Francisco (–7½)

6:40 p.m. EST Sunday (FOX)

Another rematch. But for this game, the first meeting was far more convincing.

The 49ers embarrassed the Packers 37-8 on the Sunday night of Week 12. For this title game, I’m listening to the rematch stat in championship games, the one that strongly points toward the first game’s winner repeating that earlier triumph.

The 49ers proved an easy cover last week against a Minnesota team on short rest. I did sweat out the Packers’ win over Seattle because Russell Wilson never exits quietly.

One big edge for the Packers: quarterback. Aaron Rodgers is a future Hall of Famer. Jimmy Garoppolo remains a work in progress.

Rodgers’s primary target is Davante Adams, who has 35 receptions for 472 yards in the Packers’ last four games. But in that earlier meeting against the 49ers, Richard Sherman held him to 43 yards.

As Jimmy the Greek would have said, this rematch features an intangible. Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur’s brother, Mike, is a member of Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers staff. If brothers think alike, did Mike’s input help the 49ers stomp the Packers earlier?

Whether Rodgers has forgiven his boyhood favorite NFL team, the 49ers, for selecting Alex Smith as their quarterback instead of him in the 2005 draft, I have no idea. But like Don Corleone in the “Godfather” classic, I can imagine Rodgers saying, “Revenge is a dish that tastes best when it is cold.” (Editor’s note: That is the quote. He did not use the word “served.”)

Perhaps cold enough after 15 years, and Rodgers is the reason I’m not giving 7½.

Packers hang tough, lose by a field goal, 27-24. San Francisco and Kansas City head to the Super Bowl.

 


Betting on the NFC Championship Game? Things to Know!

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  things style color championship betting 013369   Sunday 6:40 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers (14-3) at San Francisco 49ers (14-3)

This true heavyweight battle features the top two seeds in the NFC. Both teams are 14-3 and both are coming off a first round bye followed by a home win and cover in the Divisional Round. Green Bay raced out to a 21-3 against the Seahawks and held on for a 28-23 victory, covering as 4.5-point favorites. The Packers are riding a six-game winning streak and have gone 11-6 ATS on the season, including 5-3 ATS on the road. The 49ers took care of business in their playoff opener, beating the Vikings 27-10 as 7-point home favorites for their third straight win. San Francisco has gone 10-6-1 ATS on the season but just 4-4-1 ATS at home.

The NFC Championship game opened with the 49ers listed as a 7-point home favorite. Two-thirds of bets, including some early sharps, are backing San Francisco which has pushed the line up a half point to -7.5. Similar to the AFC Championship game, the juice is leaning on the road dog (Packers +7.5 at -115), signaling a possible drop back down to 7. Green Bay has value as a playoff dog +7 or more (37-26 ATS, 59% since 2003, including 6-2 ATS, 75% in conference title games). Home favorites like the 49ers are 14-12 ATS (53.8%) in conference title games. When the line moves toward a team in a conference title game (think -7 to -7.5), those teams have gone 16-9 ATS (64%) since 2003, including 10-5 ATS (66.7%) for favorites.

The total opened at 45. Two-thirds of bets are taking the over, yet the total hasn’t budged. Conference championship overs are 18-11 (62%) since 2003. But outdoor playoff unders are 77-58 (57%), including 4-2 this postseason. John Hussey, the lead ref, has historically favored home teams (54.7% ATS) and unders (56.6%). The forecast looks clear in Santa Clara with temperatures in the high 50s with little to no wind. The under is 10-7 in Packers games and 8-8-1 in 49ers games. San Francisco beat Green Bay 37-8 as 3-point home favorites in Week 12.


Betting on the AFC Championship Game? Things to Know!

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  things championship betting

Sunday 3:05 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans (11-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)

The Titans have quickly become the top storyline of the playoffs. Tennessee snuck in as the 6th seed and then proceeded to upset the Patriots 20-13 as a 4.5-point road dog on wild-card weekend then take down the top-seeded Ravens 28-12 as a 10-point road dog in the divisional round. Tennessee cashed %plussign0 on the moneyline in Round 1 and then %plussign@0 in Round 2. The Titans have gone 11-7 ATS this season including 7-3 ATS on the road. Derrick Henry has been unstoppable this postseason, rushing 64 times for 377 yards and a touchdown. Kansas City enters as the 2nd seed. The Chiefs fell behind big to the Texans 24-0 early in the divisional round, but stormed back to win 51-31 as 10-point favorites. Kansas City has gone 12-5 ATS this season, including 6-3 ATS at home. At Circa Sports, the Chiefs are the favorite to win the Super Bowl while the Titans have the longest odds of the four remaining teams

The AFC championship game, which kicks off at 3:05 p.m. ET, opened with Kansas City listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Chiefs at Arrowhead. However, despite two-thirds of bets backing Kansas City the line has remained frozen at 7.5 and the juice is trending toward Tennessee (+7.5 at -115), signaling liability on the road dog and a possible move down to 7. Playoff dogs +7 or more are 37-26 ATS (59%) since 2003, including 6-2 ATS (75%) in conference title games. When the line stays the same or moves toward a dog they’ve gone 59-42 ATS (58%), including 3-1 ATS this postseason. Home favorites like the Chiefs are 14-12 ATS (53.8%) in conference title games.

The total opened at 51.5 and has risen to 52 behind two-thirds of bets taking the over. Conference championship overs are 18-11 (62%) since 2003. The forecast calls for frigid temperatures (20 degrees) but no precipitation and only 3-4 MPH winds. When the temperature is less than 30 degrees the over is 116-81 (58.9%), including 24-14 (63.2%) in the postseason. Outdoor playoff unders are 4-2 this postseason and 77-58 (57%) since 2003. Tony Corrente, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (56.7%). Both teams have been profitable to the over this season, with the Titans 10-8 and Chiefs 9-8. The Titans beat the Chiefs 35-32 in Week 10, winning straight up as 5-point home dogs. 


Two NFL Betting Trends That You Can Take to the Bank!

 

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  trends betting

Since 1991, NFL teams that win back-to-back games straight up as an underdog are just 40-68-2 Against The Spread in their next game if they are on the road and not getting more than 7 points.  In fact they are  19-48-1 ATS if visiting a non-divisional opponent.  What is the psychology driving this trend? Simply put: such teams are less motivated while their opponent is on high alert!

Home underdogs are 173-128-9 ATS if they won straight up as an underdog the previous week.   They feel confident!


Brent Musberger’s Divisional Round Game Picks

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  round picks musberger divisional brent   Brent agrees with ff-winners  AI on 2 of 4 picks.

January 11, 2020 01:08 AM
Last week belonged to NFL playoff road teams. Three — Tennessee, Minnesota and Seattle — won outright, while the fourth — Buffalo — forced overtime before losing to Houston.

Don’t count on that happening again this week.

But there are tickets to be cashed on the road warriors because of some attractive spreads. VSIN’s Steve Makinen, editor of “Point Spread Weekly,” points out that teams that are plus-3½ to plus-9½ on divisional round weekend are 21-11-1 ATS in the last 33 games. All four road teams are priced in that range.

Saturday 4:35 p.m. EST (NBC)

Minnesota (O/U 44½)

at San Francisco (–7)

For me the Vikings are the hardest road team to back this week, and it’s all about the schedule. After their sensational performance in New Orleans, they must saddle up on a short week against a team resting and healing for two weeks. Huge edge for the 49ers, who are planning on the return of injured DL Dee Ford and LB Kwon Alexander.

The unknown is quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. He has played well, but this is his first playoff start. Remember, Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson lost their first playoff games last year at home. Since 2013, first-time starting QBs in the playoffs are only 6-17 SU.

Before taking a stand, check the condition of Vikings receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Thielen cut an ankle so severely in practice that he required stitches. Diggs missed two days because of illness.

I’m backing the home team. San Francisco 27, Minnesota 17.

Saturday 8:15 p.m. EST (CBS)

Tennessee (O/U 47)

at Baltimore (–9½)

Pretty simple. If Derrick Henry continues to terrorize defenses, Titans backers are cashing tickets. He smoked the Patriots for 182 yards, allowing Ryan Tannehill to win his first playoff start despite going only 8 of 15 for 72 yards.

The Ravens were upset by the Chargers in the first round a year ago, but this is a far more sophisticated offense put together by John Harbaugh’s staff. Since their bye week Oct. 27, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are averaging more than 35 points a game. They defeated four playoff teams and covered every victory except their three-point win over the 49ers.

The Ravens last lost Sept. 29, falling 40-25 to Cleveland. Thatwas 12 victories ago.

Ravens RB Mark Ingram is one of five former Heisman Trophy winners in this game. He’s nursing a calf injury, which could affect Jackson’s lethal array of option plays.

I don’t see the Ravens losing, but I like taking the 9½. Baltimore 30, Tennessee 24.

Sunday 3:05 p.m. EST (CBS)

Houston (O/U 51)

at Kansas City (–9½)

The Chiefs are the flavor of the weekend. Flashy quarterback, brainy coach and an improved defense. A year ago, they smoked Indianapolis and Andrew Luck 31-13 in the divisional round. What’s not to like?

Well, let me take you back to Oct. 13. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs roared out to a 17-3 lead over the Texans after 15 minutes. Deshaun Watson and the Texans put up 20 points before the half to lead 23-17. Mahomes and the Chiefs regained the lead in the third. And with 14:49 to play, Watson drove the Texans 93 yards, overcoming three penalties along the way and scoring the winning TD himself.

Making plays at crucial times is the key to winning football games, and we watched Watson do it again last week, trailing Buffalo 16-0 before winning in OT.

An injury concern exists with WR Will Fuller. He missed last week, and the Texans need him to balance the field with DeAndre Hopkins.

I like the Chiefs to win the rematch, but give me Watson and two scores all day long. Kansas City 30, Houston 27.

Sunday 6:40 p.m. EST (FOX)

Seattle (O/U 46½)

at Green Bay (–4)

I might pick the Seahawks to win outright except for the weather. The kickoff forecast at Green Bay is 23 degrees.

Russell Wilson’s kryptonite is a temperature below 30. In three such games, he has thrown for four TDs and six INTs, and his lone win came when the Vikings shanked a game-winning field goal as time ran out.

This game will be close because the Seahawks have perfected that art. In their 17 games, 13 were decided by one score, including last week’s wild-card win at Philadelphia.

Aaron Rodgers isn’t the Aaron Rodgers we once knew, but the Packers’ defense will leave Wilson yearning for his offseason home in San Diego. Green Bay 23, Seattle 17.

I am picking all four home teams to win just as they did a year ago, but I think two dogs — Tennessee and Houston — will cash tickets. And that’s what it’s all about. Good luck.


What the Pros Know about Betting on Wildcard Games. Especially Today’s

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  wildcard today games especially betting about   By Josh Appelbaum  (VSiN.com)

January 4, 2020 12:04 AM

Welcome to Wild-Card Weekend. After starting out with 32 teams we are now down to 12. The NFL Playoffs and the quest for the Lombardi Trophy are officially upon us.

Betting on the NFL playoffs is much different than betting on the regular season. The teams are much better. The stakes are much higher. But most importantly for bettors, betting against the public increases because there are fewer games to bet on and each one is incredibly heavily bet. The market is flooded with recreational money, more so than any other time of year. As a result, savvy bettors willing to back unpopular teams see an increase in contrarian value due to public bias and shaded or inflated lines.

The betting public is biased toward favorites. Average Joes want to back the “better” team, especially this time of year. This provides more value to bet on underdogs. Since 2003, playoff underdogs have gone 95-76 ATS (55.6%) according to Bet Labs Sports. Regular season dogs are 50.5% ATS. So we see a 5.1% increase in the cover rate for playoff dogs versus regular season dogs.

Dogs that see line movement in their favor (think sharp action pushing a dog from plus 6 to plus 5.5) are even betting, going 36-12 ATS (75%) since 2003.

Experience also matters in the playoffs. Teams who made the playoffs the previous season have gone 99-85 ATS (53.8%) since 2003. If they are facing an inexperienced team who missed the playoffs the previous year they improve to 48-34 ATS (58.5%).

Also, unders have great value in the wild-card round. The public is biased toward overs, which creates more value to take advantage of inflated unders. wild-card unders have gone 40-24 (62.5%) since 2003.

Let’s discuss where the sharp money is flowing for today’s games.

4:35 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills (10-6, 5th seed) at Houston Texans (10-6, 4th seed)

Public bettors are having a hard time picking this game. Both teams have identical 10-6 records so how can you not take the team getting points? Buffalo is 6-2 on the road this season (including 6-1-1 ATS) and also enjoys a plus 55 point differential. Houston is 5-3 at home but just 2-6 ATS. The Texans are -7 in point differential. However, Average Joes also love backing favorites, home teams and star quarterbacks–especially when they’re laying short spreads. Deshaun Watson and company fit the bill.

Spread bets are split down the middle with a slight lean to the Texans, yet we’ve seen this line fall from Texans -3 to -2.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all aside from a slight juice adjustment if the tickets are even. This half-point drop signals sharp action on the Bills with wiseguys grabbing Buffalo at the key number of plus 3. The Bills went 9-6-1 ATS during the regular season while Houston was 7-8-1 ATS. The Bills have value as a playoff dog (55.6% ATS since 2003) and a playoff dog with a line move in their favor (75% ATS).

The total opened at 41.5– the lowest of any Wild Card Weekend Game. Pro money has pounded the over, driving the line up to 43.5. Both teams have been profitable to the under this season (BUF 12-4, HOU 9-7) and Tony Corrente, the lead ref, has historically favored unders as well (56.5%). However, playoff overs in domes or closed roof stadiums have gone 29-13 (69%) since 2003.

8:15 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans (9-7, 6th seed) at New England Patriots (12-4, 3rd seed)

This wild-card showdown kicks off in primetime Saturday night and features the love ’em or hate ’em Patriots, meaning it will be incredibly heavily bet. The Titans started the season 2-4 with Marcus Mariota, but then went 7-3 after making the switch to Ryan Tannehill. Tennessee played meaningful games down the stretch, defeating the Texans in Week 17 to secure the final playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Patriots looked very un-Patriot in the second half of the season. New England went 2-3 in their final five games, including a shocking loss to Miami in Week 17 as a 17-point favorite, which forced them to play on wild-card weekend instead of securing a first-round bye. Tom Brady finished with his worst QB rating (88.0) since 2013. Rumors are swirling that this could be Brady’s last game with the Pats.

The Patriots opened as 5.5-point home favorites. Early sharp money pounced on the Titans getting the points, which dropped the line down to 4.5. But then we saw wiseguys buy low on New England at a deflated -4.5, driving the number back up to -5 where it rests now. The Titans have value as a playoff road dog with a line move in their favor. Also, Brady and Belichick are 27-10 straight up (73%) in the playoffs since 2003 but just 19-18 ATS (52.4%). However, the Patriots look vulnerable and the media narrative all week is pounding the idea that the dynasty is coming to an end. This is usually when New England is at it’s best- when they’re underestimated and counted out. This is also a revenge game for the Pats, who lost to the Titans 34-10 in Week 11 last season.

The total has ticked up slightly from 43.5 to 44.5. Weather could play a big role here. The forecast calls for mid-30s, rain, 10 MPH winds and possibly some snow. John Hussey, the head official, historically favors home teams (55.4% ATS) and unders (56%). The Pats went 9-7 to the under this season but Tennessee went 10-6 to the over. Wild Card Weekend unders are 40-24 (62%) since 2003.


PODCAST:Wildcard Round Picks

These folks agree with ff-winners.com AI on all 4 wildcard  ATS game picks.


Stop Wasting Your Time and Start Applying Math to Your Sports Betting!

There is much about math and the NFL that one can discover and exploit!  Our AI software and researchers use the offseason to update our knowledge of mathematical laws and  betting probabilities.


SMACKDOWN and SALSA! Preview: Chiefs versus Chargers Tonite!

ENJOY!

Betting Preview: Smackdown Tonight! 8:20 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers (4-5) at Oakland Raiders (4-4)

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  tonight style preview color betting angeles 00008b   The Chargers are coming off their biggest win of the season, upsetting the mighty Packers 26-11 as 4-point home underdogs. Los Angeles has now won two straight after beating the Bears 17-16 as 3.5-point road dogs the week before. The Raiders are coming off a 31-24 win over the Lions, covering as 2.5-point favorites, which snapped a brief two-game losing streak. While their records are similar, these AFC West rivals have far different records against the spread (Chargers 3-5-1 ATS vs Raiders 5-3 ATS). However, the Chargers enjoy a +15 point differential while the Raiders sit at -34. Both teams average about the same in terms of points scored (Chargers 20.3 PPG vs Raiders 22.8 PPG). The difference is on defense where Los Angeles allows just 18.7 PPG compared to Oakland’s 27 PPG.

This Thursday Night showdown opened with Oakland listed as a short 2-point home favorite. Sharps immediately jumped on Los Angeles getting points. The public is also hammering the Chargers (more than two-thirds of bets), especially after their big win last week over Green Bay. This overload of both pro and Joe action has flipped the line to Chargers -1. Favorites have dominated Thursday Night Football historically. Since 2003, they have gone 110-78 ATS (58.5%) according to Bet Labs Sports. The Chargers have dominated this match up recently, going 4-1 straight up against Oakland in their last five meetings and 11-4 straight up in their last 15 on the road at Oakland.

The total opened at 47.5. Nearly two-thirds of bets are taking the over.This combination of heavy public and sharp action has pushed the line up to 49. If it rises any higher, we’ve likely to see some sharp under buyback. Prime time unders are 19-9 (68%) this year and divisional unders are 23-15 (61%). Unders are 7-2 in Chargers games but overs are 5-3 in Raiders games this season.