WEEK 6 BETTING NOTES

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  notes betting   Today marks the 6th Sunday of the NFL season. Through five weeks of play, we’ve seen a distinct advantage for underdogs. Dogs have gone 46-32 ATS (59%) according to Bet Labs Sports. A $100 bettor taking each one would be up $1,075. Not too bad. Road dogs have been especially profitable, going 34-18 ATS (65.4%). Divisional dogs have gone 15-9 ATS (62.5%). 

With these trends in mind, let’s take a look at five games receiving heavy smart money on Sunday. 

9:30 a.m. ET: Carolina Panthers (3-2) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3)

Who’s ready for an early morning NFC South London sweat? The Panthers started the season 0-2 with Cam Newton, but have now gone a perfect 3-0 with backup Kyle Allen. The Bucs have been Jekyll and Hyde through five weeks, rotating losses and wins each time out. This game opened with the Bucs listed as short 1-point favorites. Despite receiving just a slight majority of bets, we’ve seen a huge line move to Carolina (+1 to -2.5). Sharps hit the Panthers everywhere from +1 to a pick’em to -1.5. One big advantage to Carolina: Favorites have gone 13-9 ATS in London (59%) since 2003 according. We’ve seen some smart money drop the total from 48.5 to 47.5. Tottenham Stadium is expecting 15 mph winds, an edge to the Under. 

1 p.m. ET: Houston Texans (3-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)

The Chiefs lost their first game of the season last week, falling to the Colts at home 19-13 as 10.5 favorites on Sunday Night Football. The public says Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City are a powerhouse and are due for a big bounce back win and cover at home. But sharps are buying low on the Texans to keep it close. Houston is playing well as of late, winning three of their last four including a 53-32 blowout over the Falcons last week. This line opened with KC listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Despite two thirds of bets backing the Chiefs, the line has fallen all the way to -4. This sharp reverse line movement was caused by pros loading up on the Texans plus the points. Since 2003, dogs receiving at least 2.5-points of reverse line movement have covered 55.7% of the time. Sharps also love this under. The total opened at 55.5 and the public is pounding the Over, yet it’s fallen to 54.5. 

1 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks (4-1) at Cleveland Browns (2-3)

This line has been all over the place. The Browns initially opened as 2.5-point home favorites. The public remembers Cleveland being embarrassed 31-3 by San Francisco on Monday night and wants nothing to do with them. This line opened with Cleveland listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Nearly seven-out-of-ten bets are backing Seattle. This lopsided support caused the line to move to Seattle -2.5. But then sharps hammered the Browns plus the points, causing the line to fall down to a pick’em. Essentially, sharps waited for heavy public betting to move the number bigly to Seattle so they could get extra points with the Browns at home. Teams coming off a 20-point loss or more have covered the next game 54.1% of the time since 2003. Pros have also targeting the under. The total opened at 47 and has been bet down to 46. The Dawg Pound is expecting 15 mph winds.

1 p.m. ET: New Orleans (4-1) at Jacksonville (2-3)

On paper this looks like an easy layup with New Orleans. After all, the Saints are 4-1 and have won three straight. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is 2-3 and just lost to Carolina 34-27. So why on Earth did the oddsmakers open this game as a pick’em? Public bettors are hammering the Saints. But despite New Orleans receiving two thirds of bets, the line has moved to Jacksonville -3. Why would the books continue to hand out additional points to public Saints backers when they’re already on New Orleans to begin with? Because pros have been getting down hard on the Jags, creating big liability for the house and forcing the books to move the number bigly in their favor. An added bonus to the Jags: Jerome Boger is the lead referee. Since 2003, home teams have 55% ATS (+12.96 units) with Boger as the lead official. Smart money has also hit the Under. The total has fallen from 44 to 42.5 since opening.

4:05 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers (4-0) at Los Angeles Rams (3-2)

This late afternoon NFC West showdown is the most popular and heavily bet game of the day. The Rams have lost two straight, including a 30-29 heartbreaker to the Seahawks last Thursday night. The public says Los Angeles is a great team and “due” for a big bounce back win and cover at home. But sharps aren’t buying the conventional wisdom. They’re backing the undefeated 49ers in a rare contrarian road dog spot. The Rams opened as a 4-point home favorite. Two thirds of bets are backing Los Angeles. This heavy betting pushed the line up to 4.5. That’s when you saw wiseguys get down hard on the 49ers, causing the line to fall all the way down to 3. Todd Gurley’s injury was also a factor in the line movement. The stud RB is out with a thigh contusion. The 49ers are contrarian in a heavily bet game and also a road divisional dog (10-5 ATS this season). Pros have also hit the over, pushing the total from 48.5 to 50.5. 

More sharp action

Dolphins +4.5 to +4 vs Redskins
Vikings -3 to -3.5 vs Eagles


Colin Cowherd’s Shocking “Top 10” NFL Teams

We think Colin Cowherd is a very good NFL analyst but our Power Rankings only agree with him on 6 of the top 10 teams. The 49ers and Green Bay are in his top 5! We doubt this will last.


 

 

PODCAST: NFL WEEK 5 NFL Betting Preview

This program gives some pretty strong betting trends and angles. But which ones will continue?

Thursday Nite Betting Preview: Eagles Versus Packers

8:20 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-0)

Tuley’s Take on Thursday Night Football . . .
After two Must-Not-See TV games the past two Thursday nights, we get a marquee NFL matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles visiting the Green Bay Packers (8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network).

It has lost some of its luster with the injury-plagued Eagles’ slow start (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS), but QB Carson Wentz wasn’t in a panic in his press conference the other day and I almost expected him to pull an Aaron Rodgers and tell fans to “R-E-L-A-X.” Despite their relative woes, Wentz and the offense is still averaging 25.3 points per game (the Packers only average 19.3) and their losses to the Falcons and Lions both could have been wins (though admittedly they were lucky to escape with a come-from-behind victory over the Redskins in the season-opener).

Still, I still have the Eagles rated as the better team and there’s definite value in getting more than a field goal.

Granted, the Packers are off to a great start (3-0 SU & ATS) and are a 4-point favorites as of Wednesday night after getting bet at high as -5.5 on Monday, but I’m ready to fade them as they’re not as good as their record indicates. I’m especially not buying the narrative that they have a dominant defense (allowing an NFL-best 11.7 points per game) as they benefited from catching the Bears before their offense got in sync and the Vikings would have scored more and beaten them if not for Kirk Cousins’ unforced errors.

While the best bet is on the Eagles +4, I also like Over 46 as both offenses should have success and this total is shaded a little low as Unders are 8-2 so far in NFL primetime games this season (and I’m willing to fade that trend as well).

The play: Eagles +4

Get Tuley’s Takes in this week’s Point Spread Weekly or on VSiN.com.


Pass-to-run Ratio and Fantasy Football

Check out:

http://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/4370/does-pass-to-run-ratio-matter-in-fantasy-football


PODCAST: Walter Sharp’s NFL Week 2 Preview!

This show teaches some of the basics of NFL handicapping that the average bettor has never
been educated on. You can learn a lot from Walter Sharp!

2015 Super Bowl Point Spread : Early Movement (archival article)

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Archival Gambling NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  super spread point movement ff-winners week 2 early

The point spread for Super Bowl XLIX moved 3.5 points at MGM Resorts on Sunday night, as the Patriots pulled away from the Colts to secure the AFC title.

The Las Vegas sports book operator, along with many others in town, opened the Seahawks as 2.5-point favorites during the third quarter of New England’s 45-7 victory. By the late fourth quarter, the Pats were the 1-point favorite.

“We opened (Seattle) -2.5, but I knew it was the wrong side, and I just kept dropping it down little by little even though we didn’t get much action on it,” Jay Rood, MGM Resorts VP of race and sports, told The Linemakers’ Micah Roberts. “The more I was thinking about it, the more I thought New England should be favored, and the bulk of the action we took on it — about $10,000 — has been on the Patriots -1.”

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Seattle -2.5, but the shop was dealing the game at a pick ‘em less than a half-hour later, according to assistant manager Jeff Sherman’s Twitter feed.

William Hill U.S. moved to a pick ‘em on Sunday night as well, director of trading Nick Bogdanovich told The Linemakers on Sporting News in a text message. The shop was offering an advanced line of Seattle -3 vs. New England last week.

Super Bowl XLIX is set for Sunday, Feb. 1 in Glendale, Ariz.

That the spread moved immediately in New England’s direction is not a surprise. Early line moves are typically prompted by money from professional bettors. But with Vegas books packed with public bettors for Championship Sunday, the cumulative smaller wagers have a greater impact. Public bettors, of course, tend to base their wagers on what they most-recently witnessed — and that was the Pats blowing out the Colts and the Seahawks coming away with a very fortunate win over the Packers.

“The books want to get to the right number as quickly as they can,” said The Linemakers’ Roberts. “This will be the biggest bet game of the year, where the public has more influence on the number than the wise guys. In most cases with the public, they go by what they saw last, and in this case, it was Seattle struggling at home and committing five turnovers and the Patriots rolling to a blowout win. I think the public will side with the Patriots early on.”

Early wagering on last year’s Super Bowl was similar, as Seattle opened as a short favorite but Denver was bet to a favorite within a few hours on Championship Sunday.

Said Tony Miller at the Golden Nugget, “We haven’t taken any big action on the game yet, just a bunch of guys putting some small parlays on it before they head out of town.”

Miller said he believes Seattle -3 is the proper number, but he adjusted to what he saw in the market.

“With -2s being out there and -1.5 at the Mirage, I opened -2.5 just to be at the highest number, but the (odds) screen is jumping right now,” Miller said. “I’m looking at a few books down to -1 right now, so I’m moving to -2 and I’ll still be high.”

Five minutes later, Miller took a bet large enough (not a limit wager) to drop even further, to -1, to put him in line with most of the other books around town. But the number would continue to drop, and pick ‘em was the consensus line by the time the AFC game ended.

The total opened between 48.5 and 49.5.

On sale: The Wynn is enticing bettors in Vegas with a special offer of -105 vigorish on side bets, exec VP for Race & Sports John Avello told The Linemakers on Sporting News in a text on Sunday night. Gamblers usually have to lay -110.

High bar: Nevada sports books handled a record $119.4 million in wagers on last year’s Super Bowl, which shattered the previous mark of $98.9 set the previous year. They also won $19.6 million, another record.


PODCAST: Week 2 Betting Preview or Fake News?

Seriously, would you trust these folks with your betting dollars?


Do Betting Trends Make You Feel Jumpy?

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  trends betting   With the NFL kicking off on Thursday, here are a few trends bettors should take note of as they finish up their Week 1 capping:

Since 2005, dogs and favorites have been about even when it comes to covering in Week 1. Dogs are slightly better at 112-106 ATS (+1.97 units). However, we see a massive distinction between divisional dogs (47-31 ATS, 60.3%, +14.42 units) and non-division dogs (65-75 ATS, 46.4%, -12.45 units). Divisional dogs perform much better due to the fact that they play each other twice a year and the familiarity levels the playing field and leads to closer games.

Here are the Week 1 Divisional Dogs     (X  means ff-winners.com  AI agrees)

Packers (+3) at Bears
Redskins (+9.5) at Eagles      X
Bills (+3) at Jets                      X
Giants (+7) at Cowboys          X

When it comes to totals, Week 1 also provides an edge to the under (118-103, 53.4%, +9.13 units). This is likely for two reasons. First, the public is inclined to bet an Over because they want to see a past-faced, high-scoring game. The sportsbooks know this and will shade numbers to the Over, providing added value and extra free points for contrarian under bettors. Second, the defenses are usually ahead of the offenses this time of year, leading to lower scoring games overall.

If you look at the under in Week 1 when both teams missed the postseason the previous year, the under improves to 52-37 (58.4%, +12.71 units, 14.1% ROI).

Here are the Week 1 unders that fit this system   (X means ff-winners.com AI agrees)

Vikings-Falcons Under 47.5
Browns-Titans Under 45.5
Jets-Bills Under 41
Buccaneers-49ers Under 50
Cardinals-Lions Under 47       X
Raiders-Broncos Under 43.5   X     

Simple NFL Betting Edges – Even Your Kids Can Do It!

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  simple edges betting   We suggest you track these betting tips  (from redzone.me) for a while and see if/how they work:

I. The 20-point rebound:
Teams will rarely play as well or as poorly as they did in their prior games.
What to look for:
1) A matchup of one team that has just lost by 10 points ATS or more
against one that has just won by double digits ATS.
2) The underdog will convert frequently enough in one of these contests to increase your yearly
winning percentage. The larger the spread or point disparity, the greater the betting opportunity.

II. The favorite rebound:
This converts often enough that the play is on a prior favorite who was blown
out in their last game and is now an underdog.
A word of caution. Unless a team is playoff-bound, this angle is not as strong at
the end of the season, when some teams are getting ready for the golf course.

III. 3 weeks of embellished production:
Any team that has accumulated total yardage or point totals in two successive weeks
that are 30% higher than that team’s average will almost always have a
letdown ATS in their third week.

IV. Streaks:
This is one for those who want to keep it really simple, without much homework.
You’ll make money in the long run betting against teams that have won three in a row,
and for those who have lost three in a row.

V. The double home underdog:
Here’s another with little homework needed.
Find a team playing its’ second game in succession
at home that:
a) Lost its previous game, whether an underdog or not; and
b) Is an underdog this week.

VI. Instant angle for a 2nd half wager:
This one involves some quick research towards the end of the
2nd quarter or at half-time.
It should only be used for the NFL. It doesn’t happen that often,
but is absolutely worth a play when it occurs.

When a double-digit favorite covers in the first half, take the Under in the second half.