Tampa Bay Buccaneers On the Move Up the NFL!

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Archival NFL Forecasting Team News Uncategorized  tampa nfl season computer picks nfl computer game picks computer picks nfl winners buccaneers

 

 

Tampa Bay , currently ranked  #30 in the ff-winners.com computer power rankings

looks to push higher in 2016.

The first pick in the 2015 NFL Draft did not disappoint at all. Jameis Winston threw a couple of picks in his first career game, but cruised through the rest of the season, even becoming selected to the Pro Bowl! The Bucs’ new head coach Dirk Koetter  revolutionized their offensive attack last season, as he utilized Winston, Doug Martin, Mike Evans, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and Vincent Jackson to their full potential. Now taking on a bigger role, Koetter will need to fix their defense too, as that is what ultimately brought their team down last season….

 

NFL Guru’s Betting Notebook Exposed!

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  notebook exposed betting  Inside this secret black book we uncovered some real gems!

1. “Since 2005, road underdogs with a losing record have covered the spread at a shocking 55.5% clip from 2005 to 2019!”

2. “In Week 1, non-playoff teams cover the spread at an amazing 65% rate when facing off against a team who made the playoffs the year prior.”

3. “When a team loses a game by more than 21 points, they cover the spread the following week at a 59% rate since 2005”.

4. “From 2000 to 2018, an NFL team that rushes for 30-plus yards more than their opponent covers the spread at an almost unbelievable 75% rate.” (The difficulty with applying this statistic to your betting strategy is that you can’t rely (necessarily) on past data, but rather, you must predict how the rushing yards will play out for each team.)

5. “From 2003 to 2018, teams that have a winning percentage of .800 or better after Week 12 have a 43.6% win rate against the spread.” Thus, underdogs in these situations are a particularly
profitable play.

FF-Winners.Com Reacts: Tom “Milkshake” Brady Goes to the Buccaneers

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Opinion Player News Tom Brady  winners reacts buccaneers bratty brady

With Brady joining the Bucs, Tampa Bay now has better Super Bowl odds than New England. The Westgate moved the Bucs from + 4000 to + 1400 and dropped the Patriots from + 1400 to + 3000.

Jeff Sherman of the Westgate told the Las Vegas Review-Journal “We didn’t want to be too aggressive on them as long as Belichick is there… The year Brady was out they won 11 games with Matt Cassel. We trust more in Belichick’s system than Brady at his age right now.”

Circa Sports moved the Patriots win total from 9 (over -120) to 8.5 (even -110 both sides). Their odds to win the AFC dropped from + 625 to + 1200. The Patriots remain slight favorites to win the AFC East, falling from -278 to -125 at DraftKings. The Bills improve from + 325 to + 175. Jets move from + 1200 to + 900 and Dolphins move from + 1600 to + 1000.

Folks, this is a very interesting development. Fortunately, we can gain insight from our industry-leading AI Power Rankings. The interpretation might surprise you:

Tampa Bay has the 4th Strongest Offense in all of football at 28.0 points per game. While l this would seem to be an exciting position  for Brady, we doubt he can maintain this production compared to Jameis Winston the previous QB.

Tampa Bay has the third worst defense in the NFL, giving up 30 points a game. By Brady producing many fewer turnovers this should improve dramatically.

The Bucs were 7-9 last year, we look for a 9-7  record in 2020, which might make the now 7-team per conference playoffs.

New England has the number 1 defense in the NFL, giving up just 10.8 points per game.

Their offense is just rated 10th, at 25.1 points per game.   We doubt the loss of Brady will change these numbers dramatically.   Look for the 12-4 Patriots to go 10-6 in 2020, making the playoffs once again.

For more opinion, CLICK HERE!

Exclusive Report: FF-Winners Top 10 Draft Choices for Fantasy Football 2020-21

It is almost the end of February 2020 with the Super bowl having been concluded a few weeks ago. And yet different news stories of the 2020 NFL season are already heating up. With Drew Brees announcing another year with the Saints and the uncertainty surrounding where Tom Brady is going to end up, the discussion around the NFL leagues will continue to go on. Then there is the NFL 2020 draft which is just 8 weeks away! Having said that, there is no better way to start your fantasy football season as soon as possible. Whether you are going to start a dynasty league or going to participate in a casual PPR or standard leagues, it is always a good idea to prepare yourself for the upcoming season.2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Fantasy Football Strategy NFL Forecasting Player News  winners report football fantasy exclusive draft choices

We have researched the top 10 NFL fantasy football draft players which will surely make a huge impact in the upcoming season. The position of the pick is based on the player’s past performance and the circumstances of the upcoming season. We have done scientific research before listing these players however, still, they may change depending on the situation as it did with Antonio Brown in 2019. But for now here are our top 10 players for the 2020 Fantasy Football season.

1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, (Carolina Panthers)

No surprises there at all. McCaffrey’s work ethics and his workload have made him a huge name in the past year. In 2019 Christian McCaffrey made 287 rushing attempts for 1387 yard and he scored a staggering 15 rushing TD’s. To make this even more terrific, McCaffrey also caught 116 passes for 1005 yards while catching 4 passes in the end zone taking his total TD tally to 19.

Now the biggest question going into the 2020 season will be whether McCaffrey will be given the same workload. And the answer to a question like that would be with a guy like McCaffrey, WHY NOT? Matt Rhule is a pro RB coach who has done well in his college coaching years. So, we have little fear that McCaffrey stats in 2020 will dwindle.

2. Ezekiel Elliot, RB, (Dallas Cowboys)

Most people may not agree with us putting Ezekiel at number 2 but the thing about him is that he never disappoints. He has continued to put up numbers year after year. In fantasy football, consistency is the key if you want to win. Sure enough, Ezekiel numbers were down from the 2018 season but still, he rushed for 1,357 yards in 301 carries and scored 12 times through the ground. You have to get McCaffrey if you are number 1 in draft order otherwise Ezekiel Elliot is the safest option afterward who will continue to shine in 2020.

3. Michael Thomas, WR, (New Orleans Saints)

Michael Thomas is perhaps the safest bet in terms of the wide receiver ever since Calvin Johnson retired – that is the reason Michael Thomas is on number 3 on my list. When Drew Brees got injured there was a huge concern about Michael’s production, however, not only the backup QB Teddy Bridgewater played brilliantly but Michael’s targets were never down. He continued to be a workhorse.

Michael Thomas has a rare talent with the right amount of size, strength and speed with safe hands (just like Calvin Johnson). With Drew Brees announcing another year with the Saints, Michael Thomas will be again the center of Brees’s attention in this upcoming season.

4. Saquon Barkley, RB, (New York Giants)

Admittedly, Saquon’s 2019 season was a bit disappointing but a high ankle sprain in a running back is just a killer. However, Saquon’s potential cannot be denied in any way.  We think that with Daniel Jones returning as NY Giants QB, the coach Joe Judge may make the necessary changes to build an offense similar to the Ravens which will create immediate value for not only Jones but it will boost up the offensive value of Saquon Barkley. Going into the 2020 season, we are placing Saquon on number 4 on our list.

5. Dalvin Cook, RB, (Minnesota Vikings)

In 2019, Cook’s start was nothing short of a dream start. In his first 7 games of the 2019 season, Cook had 5 games where he rushed for 100 yards or more. In the 8th game, he rushed for 98 yards. Kirk Cousins’s presence has been a blessing for Cook and Minnesota’s read-option worked really well.We think this year will be the best year for Dalvin Cook and he will be a definite top 5 fantasy player.

6. Nick Chubb, RB, (Cleveland Browns)

When you talk about workhorse you have to mention Nick Chubb no matter what. Chubb ran for 1494 yards in 298 carries with an impressive average of 5.0. He had 8 games where he carried the ball 20 times or more. Expect him to be the best offensive player for the Browns in the 2020 season. Chubb is definitely a safe and best draft pick at number 6.

7. Alvin Kamara, RB, (New Orleans Saints)

Alvin Kamara had a down season in 2019 but most of it can be blamed on his high ankle sprain. Sean Peyton has been known to play it safe and I think that’s why Alvin Kamara was not given a green light when It came to big plays. Expect Kamara to be back in 2020 with full swing and if you want a player closer to McCaffrey then, of course, look no further than Kamara.

8. Derrick Henry, RB, (Tennessee Titans)

Derrick Henry was a total beast in 2019. He carried his whole team on his shoulders to the AFC championship game. He gave the word “Workhorse” a whole new meaning in the 2019 season. He scored 16 rushing touchdowns and led the league in rushing with 1540 yards with an amazing 5.1 YPA. Expect Mike Vrabel to give Henry a good workload in 2020 as well.

9. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, (Houston Texans)

DeAndre Hopkins will have a great season in 2020. Part of Hopkins’s success can be credited to the starting quarterback DeShaun Watson who keeps getting better best every year and is expected to perform at his best in the 2020 season. In our  opinion in 2020 Watson-Hopkins will be one of the best QB-WR connections.

10. Tyreek Hill, WR, (Kansas City Chiefs)

Speedster Tyreek Hill had a low fantasy season but he made up most of it in the postseason. We should expect the same performance in the 2020 season. Let’s face it, no one can become open and create a gap as Hill does and that’s why there are certain plays in Andy Reid’s play-book that have been specifically designed for Hill. Expect Chief’s star QB Mahomes to throw to Hill’s way in the upcoming season. He will remain a very important offensive weapon in the 2020 season.


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Long Shot Picks for Superbowl 55!

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  superbowl picks  Super Bowl LV: Early Longshot Projections  

Kansas City captured its first Super Bowl in 50 years when MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to a come-from-behind victory over San Francisco in Super Bowl LIV. Heading into the offseason, it’s never too early to begin looking at next year.

The Chiefs (+500) are, of course, the early favorite to win it all again in 2020. What Kansas City – and New England and everyone before them – has shown the rest of the NFL is a certain recipe that makes a Super Bowl possible. First, it’s all the about the quarterback. A running game is nice and a top-level defense is even better.

With that in mind, what teams might be a nice longshot value pick for 2020? We thought you’d never ask.You might want to wager on  one or more  of these outcomes at a USA online casino!

The Not-So-Longshot

The Philadelphia Eagles won their last four regular season games in 2019 to capture the NFC East. They were ousted in the first round of the playoffs by Seattle, but the 2020 Eagles could be a value pick at +1400 to win next season’s Super Bowl.

The Eagles have the quarterback in Carson Wentz (4,039 yards passing, 27 TDs) as well as a solid running game and a defense that features two very good edge rushers in Brandon Graham (8.5 sacks) and Derek Barnett (6.5).

If you want a bit more value, Green Bay and Seattle check in at +1500. For Seattle, it appears all the Seahawks need is QB Russell Wilson. He almost wills Seattle to victory. The same is true in Green Bay where veteran Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to a 13-3 finish and an NFC North title in 2019.

Dallas (+1600) always has one of the NFL’s best rushing attacks and QB Dak Prescott finished second in the NFL in passing with 4,902 yards. The Cowboys success will hinge on getting Prescott signed this offseason.

True Longshots

If you want a true longshot, look no further than the AFC South. Houston (10-6) won the division with QB DeShaun Watson (3,852 yards, 26 TDs) and a top-10 running game led by Carlos Hyde (1,070 rushing yards). The Texans led the Super Bowl champion Chiefs 24-0 in the postseason but imploded and lost 51-31. If the Houston defense can return to form in 2020, it might make them a nice longshot pick at +2000.

The better longshot pick is Tennessee. At +2200, the Titans offer tremendous value especially after surprising everyone by playing for the AFC title last year. NFL Comeback Player of the Year Ryan Tannehill is back at quarterback and the Titans will return the league’s leading rusher in Derrick Henry (1,540 yards, 16 TDs). Under head coach Mike Vrabel, the Titans are always sound on defense and, as a result, could find themselves right back where they left off in 2019.

The Ultimate Longshot

Remember, Kansas City’s opponent San Francisco was 4-12 the year before playing the Super Bowl. Thinking along those lines and remembering the recipe for success, the 2020 ultimate longshot bet to win Super Bowl LV is…the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Steelers are given +2600 odds to win, which would be a nice payout should it happen – and it could. QB Ben Roethlisberger will return from an injury last season and the defense is loaded. T.J. Watt could have easily won the NFL’s Rookie of the Year after recording 14.5 sacks, 55 tackles, 23 tackles for loss, eight pass breakups, eight forced fumbles, and two interceptions. An experienced quarterback and one of the NFL’s best defenses could propel Pittsburgh to a surprising Lombardi Trophy.


How Hard is NFL Betting Really? Why Not Consult FF-Winners.com? OMG! It’s Free!

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  winners really consult betting  Astute bettors know that using -110 odds (the standard for NFL picks against the spread), you need to win 52.4% of your bets to break even. That decimal is rounded up, so you’d actually make a tiny fraction in profit at that rate. Picking EVERY NFL GAME, with no points shopping or shaving, the FF-Winners self-taught AI computer has won 53.1%, 55.4% and 52.9% of ATS picks, respectively, in the last 3 years. These are publicly audited results. It is THE ONLY NFL SYSTEM (out of 65+ tracked) to be profitable against the pointspread  in each of the last 3 years!

Last year, each week we entered our top 5 rated  bets in the MyBookie NFL Supercontest. We finished 81st out of about 1500 participants for a $394 prize (on a $100 entry fee). We won 61.1 percent of our bets for almost a 300 percent return on investment!

Results from Supercontests suggest that only 30% of bettors are profitable over a season and that even the very best bettors  only score between 65% and 70%. Anybody claiming results above this (such as on Twitter or Facebook) is simply lying (or they could win $1.5 million in the Westgate Supercontest, for example).


FILM STUDY: How the Chiefs will Frustrate the 49ers.

The Problem for the 49ers is they play mainly zone, so that the Chiefs can lengthen the field due to
their speed, and then curl back into soft spots. RPOs with Hill or Hardman will drive the 49ers linebackers crazy. On defense Kansas City’s run defense will be able to defend the edge, like they did against Henry.


Superbowl 54: Top Impact Players

FF-Winners believes that the Kansas City defense is underrated and overlooked by

many fans.  Watch out 49ers!

 

 


WATCH: Madden Superbowl 54 Simulation – Who Wins? 49ers or Chiefs?

LOL! It could happen this way………


Earth-based Humanoid “Brent Musburger” Bets on This Week’s Championship Games

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting Team News  musburger humanoid games earth championship brent based  January 17, 2020 03:06 PM by Brent Musburger:
Championship Sunday last year produced an anomaly. Both road teams won.

Before those overtime victories by New England and the Los Angeles Rams, home teams had won 10 titles in a row. I am calling for a return to the norm this year but for only one of our new champions to cover the spread.

Tennessee (O/U 53) at Kansas City (–7)

3:05 p.m. EST Sunday (CBS)

For underdog lovers, the Titans are the flavor of the playoffs. I cashed tickets backing them against the Patriots and then last week against the AFC’s No. 1 seed, the Baltimore Ravens. I’m tempted, because the Saturday divisional playoff winners are 5-1 ATS on Championship Sunday the last three years. The Titans fit that description.

Patrick Mahomes has convinced me otherwise. Broadcasting from the Raiders’ radio booth the last two years, I have watched Mahomes demonstrate why he’s the NFL’s No. 1 quarterback. In dominating K.C.’s four victories, Mahomes threw for 1,194 yards and 11 touchdowns to seven receivers. The Chiefs outscored the Raiders in those four games 143-55.

Titans backers love to point out that they beat the Chiefs in Week 10 in Nashville and that when championship games are rematches, the winners of the first games are 6-1 over the last five years. Strong stuff. But in that wild 35-32 loss, Mahomes threw for 446 yards and three touchdowns.

Mahomes is the real deal, and I believe he would have played in the Super Bowl a year ago had the Patriots not won the overtime coin flip and scored a touchdown, ending the game before the Chiefs got a fair chance. (Yes, I hate the overtime rule.)

Derrick Henry has been fabulous for Tennessee, and I’m predicting he’ll rush for 150 yards. Ryan Tannehill is the comeback quarterback of the year. Mike Vrabel is the AFC coach of the year. But Mahomes and the Chiefs will rule the day.

Chiefs 34, Titans 24. Give the 7.

Green Bay (O/U 46) at San Francisco (–7½)

6:40 p.m. EST Sunday (FOX)

Another rematch. But for this game, the first meeting was far more convincing.

The 49ers embarrassed the Packers 37-8 on the Sunday night of Week 12. For this title game, I’m listening to the rematch stat in championship games, the one that strongly points toward the first game’s winner repeating that earlier triumph.

The 49ers proved an easy cover last week against a Minnesota team on short rest. I did sweat out the Packers’ win over Seattle because Russell Wilson never exits quietly.

One big edge for the Packers: quarterback. Aaron Rodgers is a future Hall of Famer. Jimmy Garoppolo remains a work in progress.

Rodgers’s primary target is Davante Adams, who has 35 receptions for 472 yards in the Packers’ last four games. But in that earlier meeting against the 49ers, Richard Sherman held him to 43 yards.

As Jimmy the Greek would have said, this rematch features an intangible. Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur’s brother, Mike, is a member of Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers staff. If brothers think alike, did Mike’s input help the 49ers stomp the Packers earlier?

Whether Rodgers has forgiven his boyhood favorite NFL team, the 49ers, for selecting Alex Smith as their quarterback instead of him in the 2005 draft, I have no idea. But like Don Corleone in the “Godfather” classic, I can imagine Rodgers saying, “Revenge is a dish that tastes best when it is cold.” (Editor’s note: That is the quote. He did not use the word “served.”)

Perhaps cold enough after 15 years, and Rodgers is the reason I’m not giving 7½.

Packers hang tough, lose by a field goal, 27-24. San Francisco and Kansas City head to the Super Bowl.

 


Betting on the NFC Championship Game? Things to Know!

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  things style color championship betting 013369  Sunday 6:40 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers (14-3) at San Francisco 49ers (14-3)

This true heavyweight battle features the top two seeds in the NFC. Both teams are 14-3 and both are coming off a first round bye followed by a home win and cover in the Divisional Round. Green Bay raced out to a 21-3 against the Seahawks and held on for a 28-23 victory, covering as 4.5-point favorites. The Packers are riding a six-game winning streak and have gone 11-6 ATS on the season, including 5-3 ATS on the road. The 49ers took care of business in their playoff opener, beating the Vikings 27-10 as 7-point home favorites for their third straight win. San Francisco has gone 10-6-1 ATS on the season but just 4-4-1 ATS at home.

The NFC Championship game opened with the 49ers listed as a 7-point home favorite. Two-thirds of bets, including some early sharps, are backing San Francisco which has pushed the line up a half point to -7.5. Similar to the AFC Championship game, the juice is leaning on the road dog (Packers +7.5 at -115), signaling a possible drop back down to 7. Green Bay has value as a playoff dog +7 or more (37-26 ATS, 59% since 2003, including 6-2 ATS, 75% in conference title games). Home favorites like the 49ers are 14-12 ATS (53.8%) in conference title games. When the line moves toward a team in a conference title game (think -7 to -7.5), those teams have gone 16-9 ATS (64%) since 2003, including 10-5 ATS (66.7%) for favorites.

The total opened at 45. Two-thirds of bets are taking the over, yet the total hasn’t budged. Conference championship overs are 18-11 (62%) since 2003. But outdoor playoff unders are 77-58 (57%), including 4-2 this postseason. John Hussey, the lead ref, has historically favored home teams (54.7% ATS) and unders (56.6%). The forecast looks clear in Santa Clara with temperatures in the high 50s with little to no wind. The under is 10-7 in Packers games and 8-8-1 in 49ers games. San Francisco beat Green Bay 37-8 as 3-point home favorites in Week 12.


Betting on the AFC Championship Game? Things to Know!

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  things championship betting

Sunday 3:05 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans (11-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)

The Titans have quickly become the top storyline of the playoffs. Tennessee snuck in as the 6th seed and then proceeded to upset the Patriots 20-13 as a 4.5-point road dog on wild-card weekend then take down the top-seeded Ravens 28-12 as a 10-point road dog in the divisional round. Tennessee cashed %plussign0 on the moneyline in Round 1 and then %plussign@0 in Round 2. The Titans have gone 11-7 ATS this season including 7-3 ATS on the road. Derrick Henry has been unstoppable this postseason, rushing 64 times for 377 yards and a touchdown. Kansas City enters as the 2nd seed. The Chiefs fell behind big to the Texans 24-0 early in the divisional round, but stormed back to win 51-31 as 10-point favorites. Kansas City has gone 12-5 ATS this season, including 6-3 ATS at home. At Circa Sports, the Chiefs are the favorite to win the Super Bowl while the Titans have the longest odds of the four remaining teams

The AFC championship game, which kicks off at 3:05 p.m. ET, opened with Kansas City listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Chiefs at Arrowhead. However, despite two-thirds of bets backing Kansas City the line has remained frozen at 7.5 and the juice is trending toward Tennessee (+7.5 at -115), signaling liability on the road dog and a possible move down to 7. Playoff dogs +7 or more are 37-26 ATS (59%) since 2003, including 6-2 ATS (75%) in conference title games. When the line stays the same or moves toward a dog they’ve gone 59-42 ATS (58%), including 3-1 ATS this postseason. Home favorites like the Chiefs are 14-12 ATS (53.8%) in conference title games.

The total opened at 51.5 and has risen to 52 behind two-thirds of bets taking the over. Conference championship overs are 18-11 (62%) since 2003. The forecast calls for frigid temperatures (20 degrees) but no precipitation and only 3-4 MPH winds. When the temperature is less than 30 degrees the over is 116-81 (58.9%), including 24-14 (63.2%) in the postseason. Outdoor playoff unders are 4-2 this postseason and 77-58 (57%) since 2003. Tony Corrente, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (56.7%). Both teams have been profitable to the over this season, with the Titans 10-8 and Chiefs 9-8. The Titans beat the Chiefs 35-32 in Week 10, winning straight up as 5-point home dogs. 


Two NFL Betting Trends That You Can Take to the Bank!

 

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  trends betting

Since 1991, NFL teams that win back-to-back games straight up as an underdog are just 40-68-2 Against The Spread in their next game if they are on the road and not getting more than 7 points.  In fact they are  19-48-1 ATS if visiting a non-divisional opponent.  What is the psychology driving this trend? Simply put: such teams are less motivated while their opponent is on high alert!

Home underdogs are 173-128-9 ATS if they won straight up as an underdog the previous week.   They feel confident!


Brent Musberger’s Divisional Round Game Picks

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  round picks musberger divisional brent  Brent agrees with ff-winners  AI on 2 of 4 picks.

January 11, 2020 01:08 AM
Last week belonged to NFL playoff road teams. Three — Tennessee, Minnesota and Seattle — won outright, while the fourth — Buffalo — forced overtime before losing to Houston.

Don’t count on that happening again this week.

But there are tickets to be cashed on the road warriors because of some attractive spreads. VSIN’s Steve Makinen, editor of “Point Spread Weekly,” points out that teams that are plus-3½ to plus-9½ on divisional round weekend are 21-11-1 ATS in the last 33 games. All four road teams are priced in that range.

Saturday 4:35 p.m. EST (NBC)

Minnesota (O/U 44½)

at San Francisco (–7)

For me the Vikings are the hardest road team to back this week, and it’s all about the schedule. After their sensational performance in New Orleans, they must saddle up on a short week against a team resting and healing for two weeks. Huge edge for the 49ers, who are planning on the return of injured DL Dee Ford and LB Kwon Alexander.

The unknown is quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. He has played well, but this is his first playoff start. Remember, Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson lost their first playoff games last year at home. Since 2013, first-time starting QBs in the playoffs are only 6-17 SU.

Before taking a stand, check the condition of Vikings receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Thielen cut an ankle so severely in practice that he required stitches. Diggs missed two days because of illness.

I’m backing the home team. San Francisco 27, Minnesota 17.

Saturday 8:15 p.m. EST (CBS)

Tennessee (O/U 47)

at Baltimore (–9½)

Pretty simple. If Derrick Henry continues to terrorize defenses, Titans backers are cashing tickets. He smoked the Patriots for 182 yards, allowing Ryan Tannehill to win his first playoff start despite going only 8 of 15 for 72 yards.

The Ravens were upset by the Chargers in the first round a year ago, but this is a far more sophisticated offense put together by John Harbaugh’s staff. Since their bye week Oct. 27, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are averaging more than 35 points a game. They defeated four playoff teams and covered every victory except their three-point win over the 49ers.

The Ravens last lost Sept. 29, falling 40-25 to Cleveland. Thatwas 12 victories ago.

Ravens RB Mark Ingram is one of five former Heisman Trophy winners in this game. He’s nursing a calf injury, which could affect Jackson’s lethal array of option plays.

I don’t see the Ravens losing, but I like taking the 9½. Baltimore 30, Tennessee 24.

Sunday 3:05 p.m. EST (CBS)

Houston (O/U 51)

at Kansas City (–9½)

The Chiefs are the flavor of the weekend. Flashy quarterback, brainy coach and an improved defense. A year ago, they smoked Indianapolis and Andrew Luck 31-13 in the divisional round. What’s not to like?

Well, let me take you back to Oct. 13. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs roared out to a 17-3 lead over the Texans after 15 minutes. Deshaun Watson and the Texans put up 20 points before the half to lead 23-17. Mahomes and the Chiefs regained the lead in the third. And with 14:49 to play, Watson drove the Texans 93 yards, overcoming three penalties along the way and scoring the winning TD himself.

Making plays at crucial times is the key to winning football games, and we watched Watson do it again last week, trailing Buffalo 16-0 before winning in OT.

An injury concern exists with WR Will Fuller. He missed last week, and the Texans need him to balance the field with DeAndre Hopkins.

I like the Chiefs to win the rematch, but give me Watson and two scores all day long. Kansas City 30, Houston 27.

Sunday 6:40 p.m. EST (FOX)

Seattle (O/U 46½)

at Green Bay (–4)

I might pick the Seahawks to win outright except for the weather. The kickoff forecast at Green Bay is 23 degrees.

Russell Wilson’s kryptonite is a temperature below 30. In three such games, he has thrown for four TDs and six INTs, and his lone win came when the Vikings shanked a game-winning field goal as time ran out.

This game will be close because the Seahawks have perfected that art. In their 17 games, 13 were decided by one score, including last week’s wild-card win at Philadelphia.

Aaron Rodgers isn’t the Aaron Rodgers we once knew, but the Packers’ defense will leave Wilson yearning for his offseason home in San Diego. Green Bay 23, Seattle 17.

I am picking all four home teams to win just as they did a year ago, but I think two dogs — Tennessee and Houston — will cash tickets. And that’s what it’s all about. Good luck.


What the Pros Know about Betting on Wildcard Games. Especially Today’s

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  wildcard today games especially betting about  By Josh Appelbaum  (VSiN.com)

January 4, 2020 12:04 AM

Welcome to Wild-Card Weekend. After starting out with 32 teams we are now down to 12. The NFL Playoffs and the quest for the Lombardi Trophy are officially upon us.

Betting on the NFL playoffs is much different than betting on the regular season. The teams are much better. The stakes are much higher. But most importantly for bettors, betting against the public increases because there are fewer games to bet on and each one is incredibly heavily bet. The market is flooded with recreational money, more so than any other time of year. As a result, savvy bettors willing to back unpopular teams see an increase in contrarian value due to public bias and shaded or inflated lines.

The betting public is biased toward favorites. Average Joes want to back the “better” team, especially this time of year. This provides more value to bet on underdogs. Since 2003, playoff underdogs have gone 95-76 ATS (55.6%) according to Bet Labs Sports. Regular season dogs are 50.5% ATS. So we see a 5.1% increase in the cover rate for playoff dogs versus regular season dogs.

Dogs that see line movement in their favor (think sharp action pushing a dog from plus 6 to plus 5.5) are even betting, going 36-12 ATS (75%) since 2003.

Experience also matters in the playoffs. Teams who made the playoffs the previous season have gone 99-85 ATS (53.8%) since 2003. If they are facing an inexperienced team who missed the playoffs the previous year they improve to 48-34 ATS (58.5%).

Also, unders have great value in the wild-card round. The public is biased toward overs, which creates more value to take advantage of inflated unders. wild-card unders have gone 40-24 (62.5%) since 2003.

Let’s discuss where the sharp money is flowing for today’s games.

4:35 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills (10-6, 5th seed) at Houston Texans (10-6, 4th seed)

Public bettors are having a hard time picking this game. Both teams have identical 10-6 records so how can you not take the team getting points? Buffalo is 6-2 on the road this season (including 6-1-1 ATS) and also enjoys a plus 55 point differential. Houston is 5-3 at home but just 2-6 ATS. The Texans are -7 in point differential. However, Average Joes also love backing favorites, home teams and star quarterbacks–especially when they’re laying short spreads. Deshaun Watson and company fit the bill.

Spread bets are split down the middle with a slight lean to the Texans, yet we’ve seen this line fall from Texans -3 to -2.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all aside from a slight juice adjustment if the tickets are even. This half-point drop signals sharp action on the Bills with wiseguys grabbing Buffalo at the key number of plus 3. The Bills went 9-6-1 ATS during the regular season while Houston was 7-8-1 ATS. The Bills have value as a playoff dog (55.6% ATS since 2003) and a playoff dog with a line move in their favor (75% ATS).

The total opened at 41.5– the lowest of any Wild Card Weekend Game. Pro money has pounded the over, driving the line up to 43.5. Both teams have been profitable to the under this season (BUF 12-4, HOU 9-7) and Tony Corrente, the lead ref, has historically favored unders as well (56.5%). However, playoff overs in domes or closed roof stadiums have gone 29-13 (69%) since 2003.

8:15 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans (9-7, 6th seed) at New England Patriots (12-4, 3rd seed)

This wild-card showdown kicks off in primetime Saturday night and features the love ’em or hate ’em Patriots, meaning it will be incredibly heavily bet. The Titans started the season 2-4 with Marcus Mariota, but then went 7-3 after making the switch to Ryan Tannehill. Tennessee played meaningful games down the stretch, defeating the Texans in Week 17 to secure the final playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Patriots looked very un-Patriot in the second half of the season. New England went 2-3 in their final five games, including a shocking loss to Miami in Week 17 as a 17-point favorite, which forced them to play on wild-card weekend instead of securing a first-round bye. Tom Brady finished with his worst QB rating (88.0) since 2013. Rumors are swirling that this could be Brady’s last game with the Pats.

The Patriots opened as 5.5-point home favorites. Early sharp money pounced on the Titans getting the points, which dropped the line down to 4.5. But then we saw wiseguys buy low on New England at a deflated -4.5, driving the number back up to -5 where it rests now. The Titans have value as a playoff road dog with a line move in their favor. Also, Brady and Belichick are 27-10 straight up (73%) in the playoffs since 2003 but just 19-18 ATS (52.4%). However, the Patriots look vulnerable and the media narrative all week is pounding the idea that the dynasty is coming to an end. This is usually when New England is at it’s best- when they’re underestimated and counted out. This is also a revenge game for the Pats, who lost to the Titans 34-10 in Week 11 last season.

The total has ticked up slightly from 43.5 to 44.5. Weather could play a big role here. The forecast calls for mid-30s, rain, 10 MPH winds and possibly some snow. John Hussey, the head official, historically favors home teams (55.4% ATS) and unders (56%). The Pats went 9-7 to the under this season but Tennessee went 10-6 to the over. Wild Card Weekend unders are 40-24 (62%) since 2003.


PODCAST:Wildcard Round Picks

These folks agree with ff-winners.com AI on all 4 wildcard  ATS game picks.


Will Marshawn Lynch Help the Seahawks Beat the Niners on Sunday?

Absolutely!  This is the motivational edge the Seahawks will need after losing their top two running backs.  With superior defense and homefield edge they should prevail.



Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers – Superbowl 51 Contenders -archival article

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Team News  superbowl steelers pittsburgh packers green contenders

 

The Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers are two hungry talented teams with latent potential to  go all the way in  2016-7 as they did 5 years ago.

 

Green Bay Packers GM Ted Thompson is never ever active in free agency. He just gets brand-new players from the draft, and this year was no different. All Green Bay did this year in free agency was re-sign linebacker Nick Perry, and add tight end Jared Cook as add another weapon for the best quarterback in the league, Aaron Rodgers. With Rodgers at the helm, Green Bay will always be Super Bowl competitors. With receiver Jordy Nelson coming back next season, the Packers’ offense will return to its pre-2015 season hype, and it is going to be very dangerous.

The Pittsburgh Steelers nearly beat the Super Bowl champs in the Divisional Round in 2014, with injuries to star receiver Antonio Brown, Le’veon Bell and Deangelo Williams, and Ben Roethlisberger. They were a fumble from winning the AFC Divisional Round, and knocking off the ultimate Super Bowl champs. This team is absolutely loaded with skill, on both the offensive and defensive side. Pittsburgh’s offense is absolutely stacked, with Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, brand-new tight end Ladarius Green, Le’veon Bell, and Deangelo Williams. Their defense is in fact also excellent, as they were a top 5 run defense last year. They simply need some more people in the secondary, and they can easily end up being genuine Super Bowl contenders.


 

Stop Wasting Your Time and Start Applying Math to Your Sports Betting!

There is much about math and the NFL that one can discover and exploit!  Our AI software and researchers use the offseason to update our knowledge of mathematical laws and  betting probabilities.


Colin Cowherd’s Top 10 Power Rankings for Week 16

The FF-Winners top 10 Power Rankings only Agree with 6 of Colin’s Rankings!