Professor MJ’s Picks for NFL Week 1 2021

WATCH: NFL Betting Panel Discussion

This is an excellent sports betting Q and A with interesting and actionable
information that you can apply today. Highly Recommended! Tells it like it IS…

NFL Bet Modeling for New Data Scientists

You can learn a lot from this video – regardless of your experience
level or betting goals.

Create Your Own NFL Power Rankings

Creating power rankings is one of the single most important skills to handicapping the NFL.

You’ll learn that the real trick is factoring in multiple different stats or numbers and weighing some more than others… that’s when it really becomes a model. But this video is perfect for teaching the CONCEPT of power ratings and modeling.

5 Tips for Betting On NFL Football!

The Amazing NFL Point Differential Betting System

2024-25 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings style point differential color betting amazing 011369 If you are looking for some ideas in building an NFL prediction model
this is a great article to get you going. Unlike many systems, it takes the strength of each team’s opponents into account:

https://www.liveabout.com/nfl-point-differential-betting-system-3116692

Kinematics: The Science of NFL Football

Today, science tells us that the essence of nature is curiosity.
We exist as molecular structures. The dreamtime is bursting with supercharged waveforms.
It is a sign of things to come.
We must learn how to lead non-dual lives in the face of greed. We must unify ourselves and unify others. This path never ends.

By flowering, we believe. The goal of transmissions is to plant the seeds of manna rather than desire. Presence is the driver of will.

Only a lifeform of the quantum soup may create this revolution of rebirth. Where there is selfishness, health cannot thrive. Yes, it is possible to destroy the things that can extinguish us, but not without growth on our side.

It is time to take flow to the next level.
Throughout history, humans have been interacting with the nexus via superpositions of possibilities. Our conversations with other warriors have led to an invocation of ultra-ethereal consciousness. Humankind has nothing to lose.

2021-22 NFL Coach of the Year Picks

This video has some interesting insights into this year’s teams and coaches.

NFL Futures

There are some interesting ideas in this video. But BE CAREFUL!

Should You Bet on These Three Teams to Make the NFL Playoffs?

Answer: No!  We like the Chargers but…………..

NFL Teams with the Easiest Schedules in 2021

Are you ready for some football!!

PODCAST: Who are You Picking for Superbowl 56?

The Kansas City Chiefs have opened as the favorites to win Super Bowl 56 in the early odds. Green Bay has the second-best odds at +900, and the Jaguars have the worst odds at +10000.

Which NFL Team Will Go Worst to First in Their Division in 2021?

2024-25 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings worst which their style first color 013369 CLICK HERE!

Colin Cowherd Accidentally Reveals Superbowl 55 Winner and Score!

We couldn’t agree with Dr. Cowherd more!

 

KC Coach Andy Reid’s Winning Secret Has Been Revealed!

2024-25 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings winning secret revealed coach One thing flies under the radar. It has to do with the long term track record of Andy Reid.
This is discussed in this two minute video. To check it out, click here:

NFC Wildcard Betting Notes for 01/08-9/21

 

2024-25 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings wildcard notes betting Saturday 4:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

This NFC West showdown between division rivals is the middle game of Saturday’s tripleheader. The Rams (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) squeaked into the playoffs as the 6-seed, beating the Cardinals 18-7 as 1-point home favorites in the regular season finale. Los Angeles finished + 76 in point differential on the season. The Rams will lean on the coaching on Sean McVay and their stellar defense as they once again turn to rookie John Wolford in place of the injured Jared Goff. Wolford won his debut over Arizona last week, throwing for 231 yards, no touchdowns, 1 interception and rushed for 56 yards. Meanwhile, the Seahawks (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS) finished the regular season on a high-note, winning four straight and beating the 49ers 26-23 in Week 17, although they failed to cover as 7-point road favorites. Seattle won the NFC West and earned the 3-seed, finishing + 88 in point differential for the season. This line opened with Seattle listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. This public is laying the short spread with Russell Wilson at home. However, we’ve seen a sharp move to the road dog, with the Rams falling from + 4.5 to + 4. Some shops are even touching 3.5. Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor of at least a half-point are roughly 75% ATS over the past decade. The Rams also have value as a divisional dog and a dog with a low total. The total has dipped slightly from 43 to 42.5. Both of these teams were profitable to the under this season, with the Rams 12-4 and Seahawks 9-7. John Hussey, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (57%). Outdoor playoff unders are roughly 57% over the past decade. The Seahawks beat the Rams 20-9 in Week 16. Los Angeles beat Seattle 23-16 in Week 10.

Saturday 8:15 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team

This primetime non-conference matchup is the late game on Saturday night. Tom Brady has led the Buccaneers (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) to the playoffs for the first time since 2007. Tampa Bay played their best football down the stretch, winning their final four games and waxing the Falcons 44-27 in Week 17, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Tampa enters as the 5-seed and finished + 137 in point differential. Meanwhile, Washington (7-9 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) snuck into the playoffs by beating the Eagles 20-14 in Week 17, although they failed to cover as 6.5-point road favorites. Washington went 5-2 down the stretch and won the NFC East, earning the 4-seed. This line opened with the Bucs listed as a hefty 7.5-point or 8-point road favorite. The public is absolutely hammering Brady and the Bucs, expecting an easy win and cover. This lopsided action moved the line up to Tampa -9. That’s when we saw some buyback on Washington, dropping the line back to 8.5. Washington is your top contrarian play of the weekend as they are only receiving about one-third of bets in a primetime game. Big playoff dogs of + 7 or more are roughly 57% ATS over the past decade. Tampa Bay is in prime teaser territory. If you drop them from -8.5 to -2.5 you pass through two key numbers (7 and 3). We’ve also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 46.5 to 45. The Bucs are 9-7 to the over this season, but Washington is 10-5-1 to the under. This under matches a pair of profitable playoff systems: outdoor unders and Wild Card unders that drop (roughly 60% over the past decade).

Sunday 4:40 p.m. ET: Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints

This NFC late-afternoon Sunday showdown features the biggest spread of Wild Card Weekend. The Bears (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS) got crushed by the Packers 35-16 in Week 17, failing to cover as 4.5-point home dogs. However, Chicago still snuck into the playoffs as the 7th and final seed thanks to a tie-breaker over the Cardinals. Chicago finished the regular season + 2 in point differential, second worst of all playoffs teams ahead of only Cleveland (-11). Meanwhile, the Saints (12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) won the NFC South and finished tied for the second-best record in the conference, trailing only the Packers. New Orleans crushed Carolina 33-7 in Week 17, easily covering as 6-point road favorites. The Saints finished + 145 in point differential, best in the NFC. This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. This public is all over the Saints and happy to fade Mitchell Trubisky. This lopsided support has pushed the line up to the key number of 10. We’ve seen some buyback on the Bears at + 10, with juice hinting toward a possible drop back to 9.5. Chicago has value as a contrarian playoff dog with an inflated line. Big playoff dogs of + 7 or more are roughly 57% ATS over the past decade. We’ve also seen some under money hit the market, dropping the total from 47.5 to 47. The Saints were 10-6 to the over this season, with Chicago 8-8. Playoff dome game overs are roughly 70% over the past decade. The big question mark here is Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. Both are questionable.

–Josh Appelbaum  VSIN

Is it possible to learn anything useful from NFL 2020 Week 17?

Or is it just a waste of our valuable time?

Colin Cowherd’s Amazing Blazing 5 Picks for NFL 2020 Week 14

Podcast: Mulling over the 2020 Week 14 betting lines

Week 13 NFL Betting: Watch the Money Flow

2024-25 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings watch style money color betting 013369

Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans

If the playoffs started today both of these teams would be in, with Tennessee the 3-seed and Cleveland the 5-seed. The Browns (8-3 SU, 4-7 ATS) have won three straight, most recently fending off the Jags 27-25 last week but failing to cover as 7.5-point road favorites. Similarly, the Titans (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) have won two straight and just crushed the Colts 45-26, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public is split and doesn’t know who to take. On the one hand, both teams are 8-3 so how can you not grab the Browns getting the points? But then again, the Titans have been rolling in recent weeks while Cleveland is barely eking out wins. However, despite this split ticket count, we’ve seen pros hammer the Titans, pushing Tennessee up from -4 to -5.5. Pros have also targeted the over, driving the total up from 52 to 54. Both teams are profitable to the over, with the Browns 6-5 and the Titans 8-2-1.

Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

Both of these NFC West rivals are jockeying for playoff positioning and looking to rebound from disappointing losses. The Rams (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) just fell to the 49ers 23-20, losing outright as 5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) have dropped two straight, most recently falling to the Patriots 20-17 and failing to cover as 1-point road favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. Wiseguys think this line is a bit low and have rushed to the window to lay the points with the Rams. This respected action has pushed Los Angeles from -1.5 to -2.5. Road teams with a line move in their favor are 55-45 ATS (55%) this season. If this line reaches 3, expect some buyback on the divisional dog Cardinals getting the key number. Sharps have also targeted this under, dropping the total from 49 to 48.5. Both of these teams are profitable to the under, with the Rams 8-3 and the Cardinals 7-3-1. Historically, late season divisional unders have been a smart bet.

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers

This non-division AFC showdown features one team fighting for their playoff life and the other totally out of it and looking to secure a high draft pick. The Patriots (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) kept their faint postseason hopes alive last week with a 20-17 win over the Cardinals, winning outright as a 1-point home dog. Meanwhile, the Chargers (3-8 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) just fell to the Bills 27-17, failing to cover as 4-point road dogs. Los Angeles is 1-4 in their last five games while the Patriots are 3-1 over their last four games. This line opened with the Chargers listed as 2.5-point home favorites. Pro bettors have pounced on the Patriots getting points, which has dropped the line all the way down to a pick’em. Road teams with a line move in their favor are 55-45 ATS (55%) this season. Wiseguys have also gotten down on the under as we’ve seen the total fall from 49 to 47. The Pats are 7-4 to the under this season while the Chargers are 7-4 to the over.

–Josh Applebaum (vsin)