2021-22 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings
Scientifically Advancing Artificial Intelligence for Fun and Profit
WATCH: 20 NFL Teams with the Most Playoff Wins Ever!
CHRISTMAS NFL BETTING REPORT – Vikings Versus Saints
4:30 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
This late afternoon Christmas Day showdown features a pair of NFC opponents looking to snap two-game losing skids. The Vikings (6-8 SU, 6-8 ATS) just fell to the Bears 33-27 last week, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. Minnesota is technically still alive for a playoff spot but would need to win their final two games and get some serious help in order to sneak in. Meanwhile, the Saints (10-4 SU 7-6-1 ATS) just lost to the Chiefs 32-29, pushing as 3-point home dogs. New Orleans has already clinched a playoff spot and is currently the 2-seed in the NFC. They could rise as high as the 1-seed or fall to the 3-seed depending on how the final two games play out. Minnesota is -28 in point differential this season. New Orleans is + 100.
This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public is all over the Saints, expecting a bounce-back cover against a struggling Vikings squad that just lost to the Bears at home. However, despite this lopsided support we’ve seen the line fall from Saints -7.5 to -7. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Vikings, with respected pro bettors grabbing the points, not laying them. Minnesota has heightened contrarian value as they are only receiving about one-third of bets in what will be an incredibly heavily bet game. The Vikings also have value as a road dog off a loss (56% ATS this season) and a dog with a line move in their favor (60% ATS). Despite both teams being profitable to the over this season (Vikings 9-4-1 and Saints 9-5), we’ve seen this total fall from 52 to 51. This signals some sharp money backing the under.
WATCH: Professor MJ Releases Top DFS Lineups for NFL 2020 Week 11
How To Convert Betting Odds to Winning Percentages
Astute bettors use posted odds to calculate their expected win or loss on a given bet – of course they only take bets with expected value (EV) that is positive…. Here is how it is done…
Colin Cowherd’s Blazin 5 Picks for NFL Week 8 2020
Colin’s picks are 15-19-1 ATS this year. FF-Winners AI agrees with him on two of his five picks this week.
FILM STUDY: How Atrocious Is the Dallas Cowboy Defense?
Statistics Professor Helps You Bet on 2020 NFL MVP
Professor MJ, a University Statistics Professor from Canada, talks about who will win the NFL’s MVP award in 2020. He compared the odds from 10 well-known online sportsbooks and unveils the best bargains available to you!
How to Use Nextgen Stats to Rank Fantasy Running Backs
Nextgen Stats continues to make exciting contributions to the quantitative methods used to analyze football!
The Golden Prime Integer Behind NFL Betting Success
Can the mathematical and statistical relationships between moneyline, pointspread and totals be used to produce winning NFL systems, without knowing anything about football or the teams playing?
Yes!
This video gives one method! Click Here!
Is RB Christian McCaffrey Going to Win NFL MVP in 2020?
WATCH: Nfl Players Respond to their Madden21 Ratings
Do they care? Should they care? They should care because these numbers influence perceptions and, ultimately, salaries!
WATCH: How is Quarterback Rating Calculated?
Passer rating is calculated using a player’s passing attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. Passer rating in the NFL is on a scale from 0 to 158.3. Passing efficiency in college football is on a scale from −731.6 to 1261.6.
PODCAST: What is the Sports Betting Moneyline?
The money line allows you to bet on the winner of the game, ignoring
pointspread. The odds are adjusted to make them approximately equal.
What were the NFL’s Best and Worst Divisions in 2019?
How Randy Moss Earned All of His Superbowl Rings!
Pass-to-Run Ratio and Fantasy Football
This video is rather basic – but should give you some idea how a simple statistical method, “regression”, can be applied to predict NFL outcome.
Does the following scenario sound familiar?
“This guy Archie came into my book on the first week of September and bet about $1k on ten different NFL games. He ended up going 9-1, and turned his $10k into $18k. (n.b. we are ignoring vig for the sake of simple calculations) I knew he would be back though, and sure enough he was there the following week, betting $2k on nine different NFL games and totals. He got hot again, and went 7-2, and his $10k had now grown to $28k in just two weeks. I wasn’t worried though, because the story is always the same with these guys. In week three, he came in with 7 more ‘locks’ and put $4k on each game, only to go 1-6, losing three of the games in the last minute. Frustrated with his bad luck, he put all of his remaining $8k on the Monday Night Under, which busted when the Broncos scored a meaningless touchdown in the final minute. Three weeks after he started, Archie was broke.”
The 3 main reasons amateurs lose money:
1. They over bet.
2. They vary their bet size dramatically.
3. They fail to appreciate the amount of randomness in game outcomes and forecast accuracy.
(the media contributes to this view by understating the luck factor).
For the correct mathematics:
The Kelly System is designed to maximize your “betting edge” while minimizing your “risk of ruin”.
But is that true? Should you use it?
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