Are You Scared? Safe Fantasy Football Picks for 2020

These players probably won’t win the league for you – but week in and week out they will keep you in contention.  You’ll have to hit the waiver wire like an animal though to be there at the end!  One year, we won our Superbowl after simply drafting the available players with the best 3 year average points.

 

Long Shot Picks for Superbowl 55!

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Kansas City captured its first Super Bowl in 50 years when MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to a come-from-behind victory over San Francisco in Super Bowl LIV. Heading into the offseason, it’s never too early to begin looking at next year.

The Chiefs (+500) are, of course, the early favorite to win it all again in 2020. What Kansas City – and New England and everyone before them – has shown the rest of the NFL is a certain recipe that makes a Super Bowl possible. First, it’s all the about the quarterback. A running game is nice and a top-level defense is even better.

With that in mind, what teams might be a nice longshot value pick for 2020? We thought you’d never ask.You might want to wager on  one or more  of these outcomes at a USA online casino!

The Not-So-Longshot

The Philadelphia Eagles won their last four regular season games in 2019 to capture the NFC East. They were ousted in the first round of the playoffs by Seattle, but the 2020 Eagles could be a value pick at +1400 to win next season’s Super Bowl.

The Eagles have the quarterback in Carson Wentz (4,039 yards passing, 27 TDs) as well as a solid running game and a defense that features two very good edge rushers in Brandon Graham (8.5 sacks) and Derek Barnett (6.5).

If you want a bit more value, Green Bay and Seattle check in at +1500. For Seattle, it appears all the Seahawks need is QB Russell Wilson. He almost wills Seattle to victory. The same is true in Green Bay where veteran Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to a 13-3 finish and an NFC North title in 2019.

Dallas (+1600) always has one of the NFL’s best rushing attacks and QB Dak Prescott finished second in the NFL in passing with 4,902 yards. The Cowboys success will hinge on getting Prescott signed this offseason.

True Longshots

If you want a true longshot, look no further than the AFC South. Houston (10-6) won the division with QB DeShaun Watson (3,852 yards, 26 TDs) and a top-10 running game led by Carlos Hyde (1,070 rushing yards). The Texans led the Super Bowl champion Chiefs 24-0 in the postseason but imploded and lost 51-31. If the Houston defense can return to form in 2020, it might make them a nice longshot pick at +2000.

The better longshot pick is Tennessee. At +2200, the Titans offer tremendous value especially after surprising everyone by playing for the AFC title last year. NFL Comeback Player of the Year Ryan Tannehill is back at quarterback and the Titans will return the league’s leading rusher in Derrick Henry (1,540 yards, 16 TDs). Under head coach Mike Vrabel, the Titans are always sound on defense and, as a result, could find themselves right back where they left off in 2019.

The Ultimate Longshot

Remember, Kansas City’s opponent San Francisco was 4-12 the year before playing the Super Bowl. Thinking along those lines and remembering the recipe for success, the 2020 ultimate longshot bet to win Super Bowl LV is…the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Steelers are given +2600 odds to win, which would be a nice payout should it happen – and it could. QB Ben Roethlisberger will return from an injury last season and the defense is loaded. T.J. Watt could have easily won the NFL’s Rookie of the Year after recording 14.5 sacks, 55 tackles, 23 tackles for loss, eight pass breakups, eight forced fumbles, and two interceptions. An experienced quarterback and one of the NFL’s best defenses could propel Pittsburgh to a surprising Lombardi Trophy.


Brent Musberger’s Divisional Round Game Picks

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January 11, 2020 01:08 AM
Last week belonged to NFL playoff road teams. Three — Tennessee, Minnesota and Seattle — won outright, while the fourth — Buffalo — forced overtime before losing to Houston.

Don’t count on that happening again this week.

But there are tickets to be cashed on the road warriors because of some attractive spreads. VSIN’s Steve Makinen, editor of “Point Spread Weekly,” points out that teams that are plus-3½ to plus-9½ on divisional round weekend are 21-11-1 ATS in the last 33 games. All four road teams are priced in that range.

Saturday 4:35 p.m. EST (NBC)

Minnesota (O/U 44½)

at San Francisco (–7)

For me the Vikings are the hardest road team to back this week, and it’s all about the schedule. After their sensational performance in New Orleans, they must saddle up on a short week against a team resting and healing for two weeks. Huge edge for the 49ers, who are planning on the return of injured DL Dee Ford and LB Kwon Alexander.

The unknown is quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. He has played well, but this is his first playoff start. Remember, Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson lost their first playoff games last year at home. Since 2013, first-time starting QBs in the playoffs are only 6-17 SU.

Before taking a stand, check the condition of Vikings receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Thielen cut an ankle so severely in practice that he required stitches. Diggs missed two days because of illness.

I’m backing the home team. San Francisco 27, Minnesota 17.

Saturday 8:15 p.m. EST (CBS)

Tennessee (O/U 47)

at Baltimore (–9½)

Pretty simple. If Derrick Henry continues to terrorize defenses, Titans backers are cashing tickets. He smoked the Patriots for 182 yards, allowing Ryan Tannehill to win his first playoff start despite going only 8 of 15 for 72 yards.

The Ravens were upset by the Chargers in the first round a year ago, but this is a far more sophisticated offense put together by John Harbaugh’s staff. Since their bye week Oct. 27, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are averaging more than 35 points a game. They defeated four playoff teams and covered every victory except their three-point win over the 49ers.

The Ravens last lost Sept. 29, falling 40-25 to Cleveland. Thatwas 12 victories ago.

Ravens RB Mark Ingram is one of five former Heisman Trophy winners in this game. He’s nursing a calf injury, which could affect Jackson’s lethal array of option plays.

I don’t see the Ravens losing, but I like taking the 9½. Baltimore 30, Tennessee 24.

Sunday 3:05 p.m. EST (CBS)

Houston (O/U 51)

at Kansas City (–9½)

The Chiefs are the flavor of the weekend. Flashy quarterback, brainy coach and an improved defense. A year ago, they smoked Indianapolis and Andrew Luck 31-13 in the divisional round. What’s not to like?

Well, let me take you back to Oct. 13. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs roared out to a 17-3 lead over the Texans after 15 minutes. Deshaun Watson and the Texans put up 20 points before the half to lead 23-17. Mahomes and the Chiefs regained the lead in the third. And with 14:49 to play, Watson drove the Texans 93 yards, overcoming three penalties along the way and scoring the winning TD himself.

Making plays at crucial times is the key to winning football games, and we watched Watson do it again last week, trailing Buffalo 16-0 before winning in OT.

An injury concern exists with WR Will Fuller. He missed last week, and the Texans need him to balance the field with DeAndre Hopkins.

I like the Chiefs to win the rematch, but give me Watson and two scores all day long. Kansas City 30, Houston 27.

Sunday 6:40 p.m. EST (FOX)

Seattle (O/U 46½)

at Green Bay (–4)

I might pick the Seahawks to win outright except for the weather. The kickoff forecast at Green Bay is 23 degrees.

Russell Wilson’s kryptonite is a temperature below 30. In three such games, he has thrown for four TDs and six INTs, and his lone win came when the Vikings shanked a game-winning field goal as time ran out.

This game will be close because the Seahawks have perfected that art. In their 17 games, 13 were decided by one score, including last week’s wild-card win at Philadelphia.

Aaron Rodgers isn’t the Aaron Rodgers we once knew, but the Packers’ defense will leave Wilson yearning for his offseason home in San Diego. Green Bay 23, Seattle 17.

I am picking all four home teams to win just as they did a year ago, but I think two dogs — Tennessee and Houston — will cash tickets. And that’s what it’s all about. Good luck.


CONFIDENTIAL FILE EXPOSED: Top 3 Picks for 2016 NFL Fantasy Drafts (archival article)

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2016 may represent a changing of the guard, when it comes to the first overall pick in standard scoring fantasy football leagues. Previously, especially in leagues that didn’t incorporate any points per reception component, it was a foregone conclusion that you’d take the best running back in the league. Over the last decade, guys like Priest Holmes, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Adrian Peterson were almost always off the board by the second overall pick. Sure, there would be the odd year when Peyton Manning or Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers would enter the consideration set, but the ability to capitalize on the rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and receiving yards and touchdowns that the elite franchise running backs produced was just too much to pass up.

So with this changing of the guard, who enters the 2016 season as the top overall picks? Here’s are the 

Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers —  Brown may be the singularly most dominant wide receiver in fantasy football (and football in general) since Randy Moss.  In 2014, he lead the league receptions, receiving yards, and passes caught for a first down. He averaged over 100 receiving yards per game, and almost one touchdown per game (he had 13). How did he follow that up in 2015? By again leading the league in receptions and receiving yards, exceeding both totals from 2014. His 136 receptions was the second highest total in NFL history, and his 1,834 yards was the 4th highest total in NFL history. Few players have shown that type of year-over-year consistency, in terms of re-writing NFL standards for their position. With Ben Roethlisberger throwing the football as well as any quarterback in the league, and with the suspension of Martavis Bryant opposite Brown (meaning the Steelers will likely have to continue to force targets in Brown’s direction), there’s no reason to see those statistics dropping.

Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams — at this point last year, there were legitimate questions as to whether Gurley would even play in the 2015 season for the team that drafted him; he suffered a torn ACL injury in November while playing his last season for the University of Georgia. The Rams tried to bring him along slowly, not rushing him into immediate action when the season began.  It started with just a few spot carries in an ugly game against the Steelers; Gurley had a paltry nine rushing yards on six carries (and one reception for five yards). From there? Everything changed. Over the next four games, Gurley ripped off 566 rushing yards and four touchdowns, drawing rave reviews from the rest of the league for his startling combination of vision, size, and speed. Despite really only playing in 12 games last year, Gurley finished third in the NFL with 1,106 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns (the latter tied for second best in the NFL). Who knows what a full season of carries, and an improvement at the quarterback position — assuming the Rams select a quarterback with the #1 overall pick — could bring.

Le’Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers — Once Bell returned from his two game suspension to start the 2015 season, the conversation began as to whether he emerged as the best running back in the NFL. His ability as a runner and a receiver began to draw comparisons to Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk. In the five games prior to the early November matchup against Cincinnati, when he suffered his season-ending knee injury, Bell recorded over 125 combined yards in four of those five games. He remains one of the true “bell cow” running backs in the NFL, but the biggest question around Bell will be whether he will be fully healthy when the 2016 season begins, after his offseason surgery to fix the damaged MCL/PCL in his knee.


PODCAST:Wildcard Round Picks

These folks agree with ff-winners.com AI on all 4 wildcard  ATS game picks.


Guru Reveals: Top Value Picks for Fantasy Football 2018

Here are some sleepers to watch out for. It is always a good idea to
target the top offenses and to understand that some running backs lower in the depth chart will become fantasy superstars.