About Winn Jones


Winn Jones, FF-Winners machine learning and artificial intelligence expert , specializes in sports forecasting and advanced probability analysis. In addition to leading our research department, he is a professional financial index trader.

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WATCH: Madden Superbowl 54 Simulation – Who Wins? 49ers or Chiefs?

LOL! It could happen this way………


Earth-based Humanoid “Brent Musburger” Bets on This Week’s Championship Games

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting Team News  musburger humanoid games earth championship brent based   January 17, 2020 03:06 PM by Brent Musburger:
Championship Sunday last year produced an anomaly. Both road teams won.

Before those overtime victories by New England and the Los Angeles Rams, home teams had won 10 titles in a row. I am calling for a return to the norm this year but for only one of our new champions to cover the spread.

Tennessee (O/U 53) at Kansas City (–7)

3:05 p.m. EST Sunday (CBS)

For underdog lovers, the Titans are the flavor of the playoffs. I cashed tickets backing them against the Patriots and then last week against the AFC’s No. 1 seed, the Baltimore Ravens. I’m tempted, because the Saturday divisional playoff winners are 5-1 ATS on Championship Sunday the last three years. The Titans fit that description.

Patrick Mahomes has convinced me otherwise. Broadcasting from the Raiders’ radio booth the last two years, I have watched Mahomes demonstrate why he’s the NFL’s No. 1 quarterback. In dominating K.C.’s four victories, Mahomes threw for 1,194 yards and 11 touchdowns to seven receivers. The Chiefs outscored the Raiders in those four games 143-55.

Titans backers love to point out that they beat the Chiefs in Week 10 in Nashville and that when championship games are rematches, the winners of the first games are 6-1 over the last five years. Strong stuff. But in that wild 35-32 loss, Mahomes threw for 446 yards and three touchdowns.

Mahomes is the real deal, and I believe he would have played in the Super Bowl a year ago had the Patriots not won the overtime coin flip and scored a touchdown, ending the game before the Chiefs got a fair chance. (Yes, I hate the overtime rule.)

Derrick Henry has been fabulous for Tennessee, and I’m predicting he’ll rush for 150 yards. Ryan Tannehill is the comeback quarterback of the year. Mike Vrabel is the AFC coach of the year. But Mahomes and the Chiefs will rule the day.

Chiefs 34, Titans 24. Give the 7.

Green Bay (O/U 46) at San Francisco (–7½)

6:40 p.m. EST Sunday (FOX)

Another rematch. But for this game, the first meeting was far more convincing.

The 49ers embarrassed the Packers 37-8 on the Sunday night of Week 12. For this title game, I’m listening to the rematch stat in championship games, the one that strongly points toward the first game’s winner repeating that earlier triumph.

The 49ers proved an easy cover last week against a Minnesota team on short rest. I did sweat out the Packers’ win over Seattle because Russell Wilson never exits quietly.

One big edge for the Packers: quarterback. Aaron Rodgers is a future Hall of Famer. Jimmy Garoppolo remains a work in progress.

Rodgers’s primary target is Davante Adams, who has 35 receptions for 472 yards in the Packers’ last four games. But in that earlier meeting against the 49ers, Richard Sherman held him to 43 yards.

As Jimmy the Greek would have said, this rematch features an intangible. Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur’s brother, Mike, is a member of Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers staff. If brothers think alike, did Mike’s input help the 49ers stomp the Packers earlier?

Whether Rodgers has forgiven his boyhood favorite NFL team, the 49ers, for selecting Alex Smith as their quarterback instead of him in the 2005 draft, I have no idea. But like Don Corleone in the “Godfather” classic, I can imagine Rodgers saying, “Revenge is a dish that tastes best when it is cold.” (Editor’s note: That is the quote. He did not use the word “served.”)

Perhaps cold enough after 15 years, and Rodgers is the reason I’m not giving 7½.

Packers hang tough, lose by a field goal, 27-24. San Francisco and Kansas City head to the Super Bowl.

 


WATCH: 01/12/20: Patrick Mahomes Postgame Interview

Congratulations to the Kansas City Chiefs in getting back (somehow) to host the AFC championship game!


Betting on the NFC Championship Game? Things to Know!

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  things style color championship betting 013369   Sunday 6:40 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers (14-3) at San Francisco 49ers (14-3)

This true heavyweight battle features the top two seeds in the NFC. Both teams are 14-3 and both are coming off a first round bye followed by a home win and cover in the Divisional Round. Green Bay raced out to a 21-3 against the Seahawks and held on for a 28-23 victory, covering as 4.5-point favorites. The Packers are riding a six-game winning streak and have gone 11-6 ATS on the season, including 5-3 ATS on the road. The 49ers took care of business in their playoff opener, beating the Vikings 27-10 as 7-point home favorites for their third straight win. San Francisco has gone 10-6-1 ATS on the season but just 4-4-1 ATS at home.

The NFC Championship game opened with the 49ers listed as a 7-point home favorite. Two-thirds of bets, including some early sharps, are backing San Francisco which has pushed the line up a half point to -7.5. Similar to the AFC Championship game, the juice is leaning on the road dog (Packers +7.5 at -115), signaling a possible drop back down to 7. Green Bay has value as a playoff dog +7 or more (37-26 ATS, 59% since 2003, including 6-2 ATS, 75% in conference title games). Home favorites like the 49ers are 14-12 ATS (53.8%) in conference title games. When the line moves toward a team in a conference title game (think -7 to -7.5), those teams have gone 16-9 ATS (64%) since 2003, including 10-5 ATS (66.7%) for favorites.

The total opened at 45. Two-thirds of bets are taking the over, yet the total hasn’t budged. Conference championship overs are 18-11 (62%) since 2003. But outdoor playoff unders are 77-58 (57%), including 4-2 this postseason. John Hussey, the lead ref, has historically favored home teams (54.7% ATS) and unders (56.6%). The forecast looks clear in Santa Clara with temperatures in the high 50s with little to no wind. The under is 10-7 in Packers games and 8-8-1 in 49ers games. San Francisco beat Green Bay 37-8 as 3-point home favorites in Week 12.


Betting on the AFC Championship Game? Things to Know!

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  things championship betting

Sunday 3:05 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans (11-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)

The Titans have quickly become the top storyline of the playoffs. Tennessee snuck in as the 6th seed and then proceeded to upset the Patriots 20-13 as a 4.5-point road dog on wild-card weekend then take down the top-seeded Ravens 28-12 as a 10-point road dog in the divisional round. Tennessee cashed %plussign0 on the moneyline in Round 1 and then %plussign@0 in Round 2. The Titans have gone 11-7 ATS this season including 7-3 ATS on the road. Derrick Henry has been unstoppable this postseason, rushing 64 times for 377 yards and a touchdown. Kansas City enters as the 2nd seed. The Chiefs fell behind big to the Texans 24-0 early in the divisional round, but stormed back to win 51-31 as 10-point favorites. Kansas City has gone 12-5 ATS this season, including 6-3 ATS at home. At Circa Sports, the Chiefs are the favorite to win the Super Bowl while the Titans have the longest odds of the four remaining teams

The AFC championship game, which kicks off at 3:05 p.m. ET, opened with Kansas City listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Chiefs at Arrowhead. However, despite two-thirds of bets backing Kansas City the line has remained frozen at 7.5 and the juice is trending toward Tennessee (+7.5 at -115), signaling liability on the road dog and a possible move down to 7. Playoff dogs +7 or more are 37-26 ATS (59%) since 2003, including 6-2 ATS (75%) in conference title games. When the line stays the same or moves toward a dog they’ve gone 59-42 ATS (58%), including 3-1 ATS this postseason. Home favorites like the Chiefs are 14-12 ATS (53.8%) in conference title games.

The total opened at 51.5 and has risen to 52 behind two-thirds of bets taking the over. Conference championship overs are 18-11 (62%) since 2003. The forecast calls for frigid temperatures (20 degrees) but no precipitation and only 3-4 MPH winds. When the temperature is less than 30 degrees the over is 116-81 (58.9%), including 24-14 (63.2%) in the postseason. Outdoor playoff unders are 4-2 this postseason and 77-58 (57%) since 2003. Tony Corrente, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (56.7%). Both teams have been profitable to the over this season, with the Titans 10-8 and Chiefs 9-8. The Titans beat the Chiefs 35-32 in Week 10, winning straight up as 5-point home dogs. 


Two NFL Betting Trends That You Can Take to the Bank!

 

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  trends betting

Since 1991, NFL teams that win back-to-back games straight up as an underdog are just 40-68-2 Against The Spread in their next game if they are on the road and not getting more than 7 points.  In fact they are  19-48-1 ATS if visiting a non-divisional opponent.  What is the psychology driving this trend? Simply put: such teams are less motivated while their opponent is on high alert!

Home underdogs are 173-128-9 ATS if they won straight up as an underdog the previous week.   They feel confident!


The Mindset Behind the Ravens Demise

Congratulations to the Tennessee Titans who are playing fantastic football.

 


Brent Musberger’s Divisional Round Game Picks

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  round picks musberger divisional brent   Brent agrees with ff-winners  AI on 2 of 4 picks.

January 11, 2020 01:08 AM
Last week belonged to NFL playoff road teams. Three — Tennessee, Minnesota and Seattle — won outright, while the fourth — Buffalo — forced overtime before losing to Houston.

Don’t count on that happening again this week.

But there are tickets to be cashed on the road warriors because of some attractive spreads. VSIN’s Steve Makinen, editor of “Point Spread Weekly,” points out that teams that are plus-3½ to plus-9½ on divisional round weekend are 21-11-1 ATS in the last 33 games. All four road teams are priced in that range.

Saturday 4:35 p.m. EST (NBC)

Minnesota (O/U 44½)

at San Francisco (–7)

For me the Vikings are the hardest road team to back this week, and it’s all about the schedule. After their sensational performance in New Orleans, they must saddle up on a short week against a team resting and healing for two weeks. Huge edge for the 49ers, who are planning on the return of injured DL Dee Ford and LB Kwon Alexander.

The unknown is quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. He has played well, but this is his first playoff start. Remember, Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson lost their first playoff games last year at home. Since 2013, first-time starting QBs in the playoffs are only 6-17 SU.

Before taking a stand, check the condition of Vikings receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Thielen cut an ankle so severely in practice that he required stitches. Diggs missed two days because of illness.

I’m backing the home team. San Francisco 27, Minnesota 17.

Saturday 8:15 p.m. EST (CBS)

Tennessee (O/U 47)

at Baltimore (–9½)

Pretty simple. If Derrick Henry continues to terrorize defenses, Titans backers are cashing tickets. He smoked the Patriots for 182 yards, allowing Ryan Tannehill to win his first playoff start despite going only 8 of 15 for 72 yards.

The Ravens were upset by the Chargers in the first round a year ago, but this is a far more sophisticated offense put together by John Harbaugh’s staff. Since their bye week Oct. 27, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are averaging more than 35 points a game. They defeated four playoff teams and covered every victory except their three-point win over the 49ers.

The Ravens last lost Sept. 29, falling 40-25 to Cleveland. Thatwas 12 victories ago.

Ravens RB Mark Ingram is one of five former Heisman Trophy winners in this game. He’s nursing a calf injury, which could affect Jackson’s lethal array of option plays.

I don’t see the Ravens losing, but I like taking the 9½. Baltimore 30, Tennessee 24.

Sunday 3:05 p.m. EST (CBS)

Houston (O/U 51)

at Kansas City (–9½)

The Chiefs are the flavor of the weekend. Flashy quarterback, brainy coach and an improved defense. A year ago, they smoked Indianapolis and Andrew Luck 31-13 in the divisional round. What’s not to like?

Well, let me take you back to Oct. 13. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs roared out to a 17-3 lead over the Texans after 15 minutes. Deshaun Watson and the Texans put up 20 points before the half to lead 23-17. Mahomes and the Chiefs regained the lead in the third. And with 14:49 to play, Watson drove the Texans 93 yards, overcoming three penalties along the way and scoring the winning TD himself.

Making plays at crucial times is the key to winning football games, and we watched Watson do it again last week, trailing Buffalo 16-0 before winning in OT.

An injury concern exists with WR Will Fuller. He missed last week, and the Texans need him to balance the field with DeAndre Hopkins.

I like the Chiefs to win the rematch, but give me Watson and two scores all day long. Kansas City 30, Houston 27.

Sunday 6:40 p.m. EST (FOX)

Seattle (O/U 46½)

at Green Bay (–4)

I might pick the Seahawks to win outright except for the weather. The kickoff forecast at Green Bay is 23 degrees.

Russell Wilson’s kryptonite is a temperature below 30. In three such games, he has thrown for four TDs and six INTs, and his lone win came when the Vikings shanked a game-winning field goal as time ran out.

This game will be close because the Seahawks have perfected that art. In their 17 games, 13 were decided by one score, including last week’s wild-card win at Philadelphia.

Aaron Rodgers isn’t the Aaron Rodgers we once knew, but the Packers’ defense will leave Wilson yearning for his offseason home in San Diego. Green Bay 23, Seattle 17.

I am picking all four home teams to win just as they did a year ago, but I think two dogs — Tennessee and Houston — will cash tickets. And that’s what it’s all about. Good luck.


Superbowl History We All Need to Know !

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Fandom Highlights  superbowl history   CLICK HERE!


CONFIDENTIAL FILE EXPOSED: Top 3 Picks for 2016 NFL Fantasy Drafts (archival article)

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Fantasy Football Strategy Player News  picks fantasy exposed drafts confidential

2016 may represent a changing of the guard, when it comes to the first overall pick in standard scoring fantasy football leagues. Previously, especially in leagues that didn’t incorporate any points per reception component, it was a foregone conclusion that you’d take the best running back in the league. Over the last decade, guys like Priest Holmes, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Adrian Peterson were almost always off the board by the second overall pick. Sure, there would be the odd year when Peyton Manning or Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers would enter the consideration set, but the ability to capitalize on the rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and receiving yards and touchdowns that the elite franchise running backs produced was just too much to pass up.

So with this changing of the guard, who enters the 2016 season as the top overall picks? Here’s are the 

Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers —  Brown may be the singularly most dominant wide receiver in fantasy football (and football in general) since Randy Moss.  In 2014, he lead the league receptions, receiving yards, and passes caught for a first down. He averaged over 100 receiving yards per game, and almost one touchdown per game (he had 13). How did he follow that up in 2015? By again leading the league in receptions and receiving yards, exceeding both totals from 2014. His 136 receptions was the second highest total in NFL history, and his 1,834 yards was the 4th highest total in NFL history. Few players have shown that type of year-over-year consistency, in terms of re-writing NFL standards for their position. With Ben Roethlisberger throwing the football as well as any quarterback in the league, and with the suspension of Martavis Bryant opposite Brown (meaning the Steelers will likely have to continue to force targets in Brown’s direction), there’s no reason to see those statistics dropping.

Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams — at this point last year, there were legitimate questions as to whether Gurley would even play in the 2015 season for the team that drafted him; he suffered a torn ACL injury in November while playing his last season for the University of Georgia. The Rams tried to bring him along slowly, not rushing him into immediate action when the season began.  It started with just a few spot carries in an ugly game against the Steelers; Gurley had a paltry nine rushing yards on six carries (and one reception for five yards). From there? Everything changed. Over the next four games, Gurley ripped off 566 rushing yards and four touchdowns, drawing rave reviews from the rest of the league for his startling combination of vision, size, and speed. Despite really only playing in 12 games last year, Gurley finished third in the NFL with 1,106 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns (the latter tied for second best in the NFL). Who knows what a full season of carries, and an improvement at the quarterback position — assuming the Rams select a quarterback with the #1 overall pick — could bring.

Le’Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers — Once Bell returned from his two game suspension to start the 2015 season, the conversation began as to whether he emerged as the best running back in the NFL. His ability as a runner and a receiver began to draw comparisons to Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk. In the five games prior to the early November matchup against Cincinnati, when he suffered his season-ending knee injury, Bell recorded over 125 combined yards in four of those five games. He remains one of the true “bell cow” running backs in the NFL, but the biggest question around Bell will be whether he will be fully healthy when the 2016 season begins, after his offseason surgery to fix the damaged MCL/PCL in his knee.