Betting Preview: Smackdown Tonight! 8:20 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers (4-5) at Oakland Raiders (4-4)

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  tonight style preview color betting angeles 00008b   The Chargers are coming off their biggest win of the season, upsetting the mighty Packers 26-11 as 4-point home underdogs. Los Angeles has now won two straight after beating the Bears 17-16 as 3.5-point road dogs the week before. The Raiders are coming off a 31-24 win over the Lions, covering as 2.5-point favorites, which snapped a brief two-game losing streak. While their records are similar, these AFC West rivals have far different records against the spread (Chargers 3-5-1 ATS vs Raiders 5-3 ATS). However, the Chargers enjoy a +15 point differential while the Raiders sit at -34. Both teams average about the same in terms of points scored (Chargers 20.3 PPG vs Raiders 22.8 PPG). The difference is on defense where Los Angeles allows just 18.7 PPG compared to Oakland’s 27 PPG.

This Thursday Night showdown opened with Oakland listed as a short 2-point home favorite. Sharps immediately jumped on Los Angeles getting points. The public is also hammering the Chargers (more than two-thirds of bets), especially after their big win last week over Green Bay. This overload of both pro and Joe action has flipped the line to Chargers -1. Favorites have dominated Thursday Night Football historically. Since 2003, they have gone 110-78 ATS (58.5%) according to Bet Labs Sports. The Chargers have dominated this match up recently, going 4-1 straight up against Oakland in their last five meetings and 11-4 straight up in their last 15 on the road at Oakland.

The total opened at 47.5. Nearly two-thirds of bets are taking the over.This combination of heavy public and sharp action has pushed the line up to 49. If it rises any higher, we’ve likely to see some sharp under buyback. Prime time unders are 19-9 (68%) this year and divisional unders are 23-15 (61%). Unders are 7-2 in Chargers games but overs are 5-3 in Raiders games this season.


WEEK 6 BETTING NOTES

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  notes betting   Today marks the 6th Sunday of the NFL season. Through five weeks of play, we’ve seen a distinct advantage for underdogs. Dogs have gone 46-32 ATS (59%) according to Bet Labs Sports. A $100 bettor taking each one would be up $1,075. Not too bad. Road dogs have been especially profitable, going 34-18 ATS (65.4%). Divisional dogs have gone 15-9 ATS (62.5%). 

With these trends in mind, let’s take a look at five games receiving heavy smart money on Sunday. 

9:30 a.m. ET: Carolina Panthers (3-2) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3)

Who’s ready for an early morning NFC South London sweat? The Panthers started the season 0-2 with Cam Newton, but have now gone a perfect 3-0 with backup Kyle Allen. The Bucs have been Jekyll and Hyde through five weeks, rotating losses and wins each time out. This game opened with the Bucs listed as short 1-point favorites. Despite receiving just a slight majority of bets, we’ve seen a huge line move to Carolina (+1 to -2.5). Sharps hit the Panthers everywhere from +1 to a pick’em to -1.5. One big advantage to Carolina: Favorites have gone 13-9 ATS in London (59%) since 2003 according. We’ve seen some smart money drop the total from 48.5 to 47.5. Tottenham Stadium is expecting 15 mph winds, an edge to the Under. 

1 p.m. ET: Houston Texans (3-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)

The Chiefs lost their first game of the season last week, falling to the Colts at home 19-13 as 10.5 favorites on Sunday Night Football. The public says Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City are a powerhouse and are due for a big bounce back win and cover at home. But sharps are buying low on the Texans to keep it close. Houston is playing well as of late, winning three of their last four including a 53-32 blowout over the Falcons last week. This line opened with KC listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Despite two thirds of bets backing the Chiefs, the line has fallen all the way to -4. This sharp reverse line movement was caused by pros loading up on the Texans plus the points. Since 2003, dogs receiving at least 2.5-points of reverse line movement have covered 55.7% of the time. Sharps also love this under. The total opened at 55.5 and the public is pounding the Over, yet it’s fallen to 54.5. 

1 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks (4-1) at Cleveland Browns (2-3)

This line has been all over the place. The Browns initially opened as 2.5-point home favorites. The public remembers Cleveland being embarrassed 31-3 by San Francisco on Monday night and wants nothing to do with them. This line opened with Cleveland listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Nearly seven-out-of-ten bets are backing Seattle. This lopsided support caused the line to move to Seattle -2.5. But then sharps hammered the Browns plus the points, causing the line to fall down to a pick’em. Essentially, sharps waited for heavy public betting to move the number bigly to Seattle so they could get extra points with the Browns at home. Teams coming off a 20-point loss or more have covered the next game 54.1% of the time since 2003. Pros have also targeting the under. The total opened at 47 and has been bet down to 46. The Dawg Pound is expecting 15 mph winds.

1 p.m. ET: New Orleans (4-1) at Jacksonville (2-3)

On paper this looks like an easy layup with New Orleans. After all, the Saints are 4-1 and have won three straight. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is 2-3 and just lost to Carolina 34-27. So why on Earth did the oddsmakers open this game as a pick’em? Public bettors are hammering the Saints. But despite New Orleans receiving two thirds of bets, the line has moved to Jacksonville -3. Why would the books continue to hand out additional points to public Saints backers when they’re already on New Orleans to begin with? Because pros have been getting down hard on the Jags, creating big liability for the house and forcing the books to move the number bigly in their favor. An added bonus to the Jags: Jerome Boger is the lead referee. Since 2003, home teams have 55% ATS (+12.96 units) with Boger as the lead official. Smart money has also hit the Under. The total has fallen from 44 to 42.5 since opening.

4:05 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers (4-0) at Los Angeles Rams (3-2)

This late afternoon NFC West showdown is the most popular and heavily bet game of the day. The Rams have lost two straight, including a 30-29 heartbreaker to the Seahawks last Thursday night. The public says Los Angeles is a great team and “due” for a big bounce back win and cover at home. But sharps aren’t buying the conventional wisdom. They’re backing the undefeated 49ers in a rare contrarian road dog spot. The Rams opened as a 4-point home favorite. Two thirds of bets are backing Los Angeles. This heavy betting pushed the line up to 4.5. That’s when you saw wiseguys get down hard on the 49ers, causing the line to fall all the way down to 3. Todd Gurley’s injury was also a factor in the line movement. The stud RB is out with a thigh contusion. The 49ers are contrarian in a heavily bet game and also a road divisional dog (10-5 ATS this season). Pros have also hit the over, pushing the total from 48.5 to 50.5. 

More sharp action

Dolphins +4.5 to +4 vs Redskins
Vikings -3 to -3.5 vs Eagles


How to Excel at Sports Betting

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Sports Betting  sports excel betting   Introduction

The world of betting and gambling often draws mixed reactions. The people who bet regularly have all praises for it while those who have not tried or have  not got  had good experience with it, do not vouch for it. However, like any other game or profession, betting too is often more than fun and can  become a serious business.  Read this article and find some useful information on getting started with sports betting.

Getting started

There are different forms of betting. The regular way to bet is to visit a reputed casino like bcasino and play different kinds of card games or similar games and to put your money as bets. However, there are other forms of betting as well. In sports betting, you have to bet on different kind of sports as per the situation and options available for you.  To get started, you have to first select a sport on which you are interested in betting. It is not required to have  any skills to bet. However, it does require skill to make a successful bet – and to do it successfully on a regular basis requires much more than luck or chance. So let’s find out how the world of sports betting works!

Knowledge and grip of the sport

When you have to bet on a sport, you should first of all select a sport. So the next question arises is what kind of sport you should pick? Well you should basically pick a sport on which you have knowledge about. There are hundreds of popular sports in the world and it might be that you are aware of most of them. However in order to do better, you should have a firm grip and grasp on the sport on which you would like to bed.

You might think that you know lots of things about the sport and you can bet on it on any given day. However, there are different factors and refinements that are needed to enhance your knowledge of the sport. Let’s try to understand it with help of an example:

Let us pick up a sport first. If you like to bet on tennis, then you should be a Tennis fan. You might know who is the present world number one in the men’s tennis and you might be aware about lots of other things. But in order to bet, you have to analyze a particular match or a tournament. In case of tennis, if you concentrate on the present situation, the hot bids to  would be on whether Nadal  would overtake Novak Djokovic and end up  also as well number one by the end of the year? Now in order to get this correctly, you have to analyze different factors.

Unbiased analysis

First of all, you should check out the present points difference between the two players. If the difference is too much, then it is unlikely that Nadal is going to over take Djokovic. The next thing that you have to analyze is the schedule of the two players. You should ensure and confirm the kinds of tournaments that they are going to play in the next few months till December. These are the tournaments in which they can gain points.

At the same time, you should be aware about how tennis rankings system works. In some cases, a certain player does not participate in a particular tournament that he has participated last year, then he would lose those points. Another important factor that you have to analyze is the fitness level. If the fitness level of the players is questionable, then it is unlikely that they are going to participate in tournaments and even if they do they are not likely to perform well.

Now as you can understand,  all this analysis is required for knowledge and great understanding of the sport concerned. The same case is with the other sports. 

Learning from experience

Apart from the knowledge of the sport, you should also understand other aspects of a profession. If you would like to become successful in sports betting or any other profession, there is a mental aspect that you also have to deal with. You should know how to deal with the tough times. You should be aware of handling the situation and when things are not working your way. This is the most important thing to learn in life. You should be able to hold your emotions and be patient with results.

If you can survive the tough times, then you can always look back and learn from the past mistakes that you have made and improve  on them.  Maintain this on a regular basis, and grow your experience of the game of the sport of the profession and ultimately you are able to use that experience in future to enhance your gambling or sports betting skills. If you follow these instructions and  learn from your own experience and use your own brain and common sense  when required, you would gradually be able to master the art of sports betting or any other profession for that matter.

Final words

 A final word of advice would be to not rush  things and start betting great amounts of money. This can cause  heavy losses. Until and unless you are sure about your bets, try to start with small amounts and gradually learn from the experience and then increase the betting amounts. In this way, you will develop yourself as a good professional and successful sports bettor.


The Quickest & Easiest Ways To Winning NFL BETTING

Using Multiple Sportbooks is a no-brainer for those who care about growing their bottom line. Always, shop around for the best odds!


PODCAST: NFL WEEK 5 NFL Betting Preview

This program gives some pretty strong betting trends and angles. But which ones will continue?

Thursday Nite Betting Preview: Eagles Versus Packers

8:20 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-0)

Tuley’s Take on Thursday Night Football . . .
After two Must-Not-See TV games the past two Thursday nights, we get a marquee NFL matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles visiting the Green Bay Packers (8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network).

It has lost some of its luster with the injury-plagued Eagles’ slow start (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS), but QB Carson Wentz wasn’t in a panic in his press conference the other day and I almost expected him to pull an Aaron Rodgers and tell fans to “R-E-L-A-X.” Despite their relative woes, Wentz and the offense is still averaging 25.3 points per game (the Packers only average 19.3) and their losses to the Falcons and Lions both could have been wins (though admittedly they were lucky to escape with a come-from-behind victory over the Redskins in the season-opener).

Still, I still have the Eagles rated as the better team and there’s definite value in getting more than a field goal.

Granted, the Packers are off to a great start (3-0 SU & ATS) and are a 4-point favorites as of Wednesday night after getting bet at high as -5.5 on Monday, but I’m ready to fade them as they’re not as good as their record indicates. I’m especially not buying the narrative that they have a dominant defense (allowing an NFL-best 11.7 points per game) as they benefited from catching the Bears before their offense got in sync and the Vikings would have scored more and beaten them if not for Kirk Cousins’ unforced errors.

While the best bet is on the Eagles +4, I also like Over 46 as both offenses should have success and this total is shaded a little low as Unders are 8-2 so far in NFL primetime games this season (and I’m willing to fade that trend as well).

The play: Eagles +4

Get Tuley’s Takes in this week’s Point Spread Weekly or on VSiN.com.


The Best Sports for Betting

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Gambling Sports Betting  sports betting   If you are a sports enthusiast who loves to place bets on your favorite teams, you need to consider the following;

  • How many sports to bet on?
  • Which sports to bet on?

It is easier to make decisions if you are a sports fan first then a bettor. You can decide to wager on all of the sports that you are familiar with and love to watch. This approach proves logical since those are the sports that you understand best. It is easier to bet on those sports as it will give you a better opportunity of winning money.

However, it is not easier to make such decisions. It is normal for most people to follow diverse sports, and thus, not certain if they want to bet on them all or just select their favorite. There are others who only follow a single sport, and are therefore not sure if they need to limit themselves to just that one particular sport. There are also those who would like to try their luck in sports betting but rarely follow any sports closely.

Definitely, there are sports that we presume are better, though it may not be everyone’s opinion. Your best sport to bet on might be a terrible option for someone else. Therefore, one should consider a number of factors before you place that bet. You need to consider whether it’s perfect to wager on one sport, several sports, or diverse sports. 

The best sports for betting highly depend on what part of the world one is located. Some sports might be well-known in some regions, but not so favored in others. However, a few sports can be popular with bettors all around the world. In terms of the total number of people who bet on them, some sports definitely rank higher than others, these include soccer, American football, basketball, tennis, boxing, and formula 1. Therefore, you need to consider what’s best for you.

Those sports that regularly attract huge viewing audiences, are also the ones that people wager on the most. The reason why most bettors would consider placing their bets on these sports is that they offer many betting opportunities. Information on such sports is also easily accessible and widely available. Bookmakers also offer lots of betting options for these sports.

How to make the best decisions

The more information you have at your disposal, the better the chances of making good decisions. If you find making money more important to you than having fun, then you need to consider;

  • How much time are you willing to dedicate to your betting?
  • What will give you the best chance of making good money?
  • What are the best betting options?

 


PODCAST: Week 2 Betting Preview or Fake News?

Seriously, would you trust these folks with your betting dollars?


Do Betting Trends Make You Feel Jumpy?

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  trends betting   With the NFL kicking off on Thursday, here are a few trends bettors should take note of as they finish up their Week 1 capping:

Since 2005, dogs and favorites have been about even when it comes to covering in Week 1. Dogs are slightly better at 112-106 ATS (+1.97 units). However, we see a massive distinction between divisional dogs (47-31 ATS, 60.3%, +14.42 units) and non-division dogs (65-75 ATS, 46.4%, -12.45 units). Divisional dogs perform much better due to the fact that they play each other twice a year and the familiarity levels the playing field and leads to closer games.

Here are the Week 1 Divisional Dogs     (X  means ff-winners.com  AI agrees)

Packers (+3) at Bears
Redskins (+9.5) at Eagles      X
Bills (+3) at Jets                      X
Giants (+7) at Cowboys          X

When it comes to totals, Week 1 also provides an edge to the under (118-103, 53.4%, +9.13 units). This is likely for two reasons. First, the public is inclined to bet an Over because they want to see a past-faced, high-scoring game. The sportsbooks know this and will shade numbers to the Over, providing added value and extra free points for contrarian under bettors. Second, the defenses are usually ahead of the offenses this time of year, leading to lower scoring games overall.

If you look at the under in Week 1 when both teams missed the postseason the previous year, the under improves to 52-37 (58.4%, +12.71 units, 14.1% ROI).

Here are the Week 1 unders that fit this system   (X means ff-winners.com AI agrees)

Vikings-Falcons Under 47.5
Browns-Titans Under 45.5
Jets-Bills Under 41
Buccaneers-49ers Under 50
Cardinals-Lions Under 47       X
Raiders-Broncos Under 43.5   X     

Simple NFL Betting Edges – Even Your Kids Can Do It!

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  simple edges betting   We suggest you track these betting tips  (from redzone.me) for a while and see if/how they work:

I. The 20-point rebound:
Teams will rarely play as well or as poorly as they did in their prior games.
What to look for:
1) A matchup of one team that has just lost by 10 points ATS or more
against one that has just won by double digits ATS.
2) The underdog will convert frequently enough in one of these contests to increase your yearly
winning percentage. The larger the spread or point disparity, the greater the betting opportunity.

II. The favorite rebound:
This converts often enough that the play is on a prior favorite who was blown
out in their last game and is now an underdog.
A word of caution. Unless a team is playoff-bound, this angle is not as strong at
the end of the season, when some teams are getting ready for the golf course.

III. 3 weeks of embellished production:
Any team that has accumulated total yardage or point totals in two successive weeks
that are 30% higher than that team’s average will almost always have a
letdown ATS in their third week.

IV. Streaks:
This is one for those who want to keep it really simple, without much homework.
You’ll make money in the long run betting against teams that have won three in a row,
and for those who have lost three in a row.

V. The double home underdog:
Here’s another with little homework needed.
Find a team playing its’ second game in succession
at home that:
a) Lost its previous game, whether an underdog or not; and
b) Is an underdog this week.

VI. Instant angle for a 2nd half wager:
This one involves some quick research towards the end of the
2nd quarter or at half-time.
It should only be used for the NFL. It doesn’t happen that often,
but is absolutely worth a play when it occurs.

When a double-digit favorite covers in the first half, take the Under in the second half.