Week 4 2020 NFL Betting Lines and Human Discussion

Is the 2020 NFL Betting Environment “Normal?”

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting  style normal environment color betting 013369  League wide statistics in 2020:
In the first two weeks of 2020, NFL games have averaged a total of 50.3 points, a significant upgrade from 45.7 from last season. As another comparison, NFL teams averaged 43.6 points the first two weeks of the 2019 season.
2020 also brings almost empty stadiums, and we thought this would lead to reduced home advantage like it did in European soccer. [But] so far, the home team has scored 2.78 points per game more than the away team, a greater home field than the 1.73 from the past 5 seasons.
                       —The Power Rank

How to Read Sports Betting Lines for Fun and Profit!

The Golden Prime Integer Behind NFL Betting Success

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting Statistics Videos  success prime integer golden betting behind  Can the mathematical and statistical relationships between moneyline, pointspread and totals be used to produce  winning NFL systems, without knowing anything about football or the teams playing?

Yes!

This video gives one method! Click Here!

 

 

WATCH: NFL Betting Guru Recklessly Reveals Juicy Offensive ROY Pick!

VIDEO LESSON: How Are Betting Lines Set and Moved?

This is a fairly advanced video with great information. Don’t be discouraged if you don’t understand  it all.

The – and + on a sports betting line indicates both your prospective payout and whether you’re betting on the favorite or the underdog. Negative numbers signify the favorite on the betting line. The negative number indicates how much you’d need to bet to win $100.

Winning Tips to Managing (and Growing) Your Sports Betting Bank Roll

HINT: FLAT BET!

NFL Betting vs Online Casinos

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Gambling Gaming  online casinos betting  Thanks to the advances in mobile technology, online gambling has blown up. Nowadays you can place bets from your smartphone regardless of the time or the place. And, all of the platforms that offer the activity are vetted and financially stable, so payouts are guaranteed. You just need to bet wisely.

It’s been two years since the ban of betting on commercial sports in the US has been lifted. One that was in place due to a 1992 federal law. It was thought that it would open doors to legalizing more than $150 billion in illegal bets placed each year.

Of course, the industry didn’t even get close to these numbers. It also hasn’t gotten close to its other online gambling compatriot, digital casinos. These bring in annual revenues of $60 billion worldwide, and that number is projected to rise to $90 billion in 4 years. So, why is it that these platforms are so far ahead? Well, for one, they’ve been on the scene for over two and a half decades, and there are a ton of options. An exceptional choice is novibet.co.uk (non-USA), a platform that offers both, sports and casino betting.

Seeing as football is the most popular sport in the US, and enticing to bet on. It’s intriguing to see how gambling on it compares to doing the same at an online casino.

Odds vs House Edge

In sports betting the odds are calculated according to the probability of the result of a game. Who’s playing, where are they playing, the run they been on, and so on? All these play a factor in determining the odds. To win many times over your initial bet, you’d have to land a major upset.

With casinos, the platform always has a mathematical advantage over the player, who knows and understands the exact percentage. However, that number is valid in the long-term, and it states that over time you can’t beat the casino. But, in the short-term, anything is possible.

Availability of Bets

You can’t bet on NFL games whenever you feel like it. The first condition is that a game has to be scheduled and take place. So, if you get the itch and the season hasn’t started, you’ll have to bet on other sports or games from less popular leagues.

Casino betting, on the other hand, is a 24/7, 365 day a year thing. It’s also not bound by world-events, like pandemics.

Variety

Now, you may be thinking – “do you know how many different types of bets I can place on a football game?” There’s pass completion, the type of play the offense will call next, and so on. If you’ve never played a slot, then you don’t know that some of these games offer thousands of winning combinations that pay out different amounts.

Then, you can compare the 256 games that take place during one NFL season, to close to 5,000 available slot games online, and every single type of live table game ever created.

Welcome to NFL Betting

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting Web Resources  welcome betting  All over the USA, football is currently the most popular sport to bet on. Whether you want to bet on the NFL or even on college football, you have a myriad options when it comes to betting – from different types of bets, odds, bookies and more, it’s a vast but highly interesting world. It can get a little daunting for beginners though, so today we’ll be taking a look at all the NFL betting essentials, ensuring you can get started with ease and get involved in all the excitement. Whether you’re a rookie or just a little rusty, we’ll get you all up to speed. Without further ado, let’s dive in!

Ways to Bet on the NFL

You’ve got a wide array of ways to bet on the NFL. The most simple type of bet, and one of the most popular, is the moneyline – this means you’re simply betting on which team will come out the winner, regardless of the margin of victory. Odds will translate into how much you get paid back for your bet. For example, if a team is a strong favorite, they’ll be listed with a negative odd – such as Patriots (-200) – which means that if you bet $200 on them to win and they do come out victorious, you’ll get $100 profit.

Then, you can start to go deeper and more complex – and either go with your gut or dive into the books, records, statistics and more to make a careful, informed decision, it’s as shallow or deep as you want it to be. Some more detailed bets are:

  1. Bet on a pass completion
  2. Betting on whether the following play can be first down, turnover, score or kick
    3.Betting on what kind of play the offense will call next: Run or pass
    4. Betting on NFL futures – betting on which team will be the eventual Super Bowl champion, divisional champion or number of wins that a specific team will earn during the regular season

These are just a few examples of the bets you can place – and lots of bookies allow you to place them when the game’s paused all throughout the game. If you’re into these, it’s important to feel when the play’s momentum starts to change so you can react appropriately.

The Pointspread:

 The point spread (also simply known as the “spread”) is one of the most common bets as well when betting on NFL or college football odds. The spread entails assigning a betting line that a team is either favored to win by or predicted to lose by. Negative betting lines such as -5.5 show that the team is the favorite out of the two and expected to win by a margin of 5.5 points. On the other hand, positive betting lines such as +8.5 indicate that a particular team is an underdog and expected to lose the game by 8.5 points.

How to Improve Your Chances

While betting on the NFL is a fun and exciting experience whether you win or lose, it’s always better if you get a sweet payoff at the end. In order to improve your chances of making the right bets you’ve got a few strategies you can take advantage of.

Only use money you can afford to lose – not only will this keep you safe at all times, but it will also relax your mind and ensure you make better, more rational decisions when betting. Less stress = better bets.
Only bet around 5 percent of your bankroll at a time – if you’re starting bankroll is $2000, only bet around $100 each time. This will allow you to recover from losses and slowly but surely turn a profit.

Do your due diligence – even though you can bet with your gut for fun, you will want to study up before you make larger bets with confidence. Learning the main history of the teams, the players, the stadiums, the coaches, how the weather will be like, among other details, is all part of doing your due diligence. It can be exhausting but also quite entertaining – if you want to skip this step and still get the rewards you can always go with some pro NFL betting advice, picks and information from experts that have already done all the work for you. There are a few excellent services out there – you can read this guide to discover the best ones.
Practice – you can read and theorize as much as you want, nothing beats hands-on experience. If you really want to get good at betting you need to go out there and place some bets. Learn from your mistakes and constantly improve, aiming to turn yourself into a confident, successful NFL bettor.  Of course, for free computer-based picks  you should be using FF-Winners.Com!

Conclusion

And there you have it folks – a quick, straightforward but highly effective introduction to the world of NFL betting. Reading this article while the NFL season hasn’t yet begun? Well, you can always take the opportunity to start getting ready for it! We hope this handy guide has been helpful but remember – this is just the start. Familiarize yourself with the teams, with the coaches and with the game, go out there and place some paper bets first (fake money) to get some hands-on experience and always keep the tips we’ve discussed above in mind. Thank you for reading and as always – good luck!

Amazing NFL Betting Statistic

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Sports Betting  statistic betting amazing

 

No NFL Superbowl Champion(currently Denver)  has covered the pointspread for the first 5 games of the following year :).  Denver is 4-0 Against the Spread this year!

 

PODCAST: Sports Betting: Be Cool. Not a Fool

FF-Winners believes that flat betting is the way to go. That is, bet the same amount for each play. Chasing, or increasing bet size based on your last bet (or series of bets), is not recommended.

Over time, you may hear about various systems where you increase your bet size “knowing” that you are due to win sooner or later. In general, these systems don’t work. Eventually, a bad streak occurs and you are betting a recklessly large amount to recoup losses.

In general, many of these approaches might seem to improve short-term performance, but at the huge expense of increasing your risk of ruin. A bad stretch could endanger your bankroll fairly quickly.

Professional money managers, as well as sensible sports investors, will agree that you should minimize the chances of blowing out your investment portfolio. Flat betting will help you ride the ups and downs of sports investing!

NFL Guru’s Betting Notebook Exposed!

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  notebook exposed betting  Inside this secret black book we uncovered some real gems!

1. “Since 2005, road underdogs with a losing record have covered the spread at a shocking 55.5% clip from 2005 to 2019!”

2. “In Week 1, non-playoff teams cover the spread at an amazing 65% rate when facing off against a team who made the playoffs the year prior.”

3. “When a team loses a game by more than 21 points, they cover the spread the following week at a 59% rate since 2005”.

4. “From 2000 to 2018, an NFL team that rushes for 30-plus yards more than their opponent covers the spread at an almost unbelievable 75% rate.” (The difficulty with applying this statistic to your betting strategy is that you can’t rely (necessarily) on past data, but rather, you must predict how the rushing yards will play out for each team.)

5. “From 2003 to 2018, teams that have a winning percentage of .800 or better after Week 12 have a 43.6% win rate against the spread.” Thus, underdogs in these situations are a particularly profitable play.

WATCH: NFL Betting 101 – What You Should Know.

NFL betting is fun and really not very complicated. If you have any questions,  just ask us at  customerservice@ff-winners.com.

Guru’s NBA Betting System Has Finally Been Revealed!

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Sports Betting  system revealed finally betting  “Yesterday, we  saw the Lakers upset the Clippers 112-103 as 2.5-point dogs. The important takeaway, however, was the total. It opened at 227.5, closed at 226.5 and landed on 115, easily cashing the under. Historically, when two elite teams go head-to-head the under has been a smart bet. This is likely due to an added emphasis on defense, a more competitive effort and also a heavier-than-usual public bias toward betting the other between two great teams.

When two teams with 60% win percentages or higher face off the under is 974-797 (55%) since 2005 according to Bet Labs Sports. If the total falls by at least one point (a sign of sharp action), the elite team under improves to 57%.

The trend is even better if the elite teams come from the same division. This is due to built in familiarity. Each team knows what to expect from the other, specifically when it comes to game planning and defending. When two elite teams face off from the same division, the under is 195-135 (59%) since 2005. “

–Josh Appelbaum 2020

Three Free Agents that Could Scramble the NFL Betting Markets in 2020

NFL  football is definitely a team sport. But one player added to the right team at  just  the right time can have a ripple effect throughout the entire team and organization. 


Amazing Tips for Betting on March Madness

Remember: Try to keep all your wagers for the same amount. This is the number one rule of sports betting money management.

PODCAST: What is the Sports Betting Moneyline?

The money line allows you to bet on the winner of the game, ignoring
pointspread. The odds are adjusted to make them approximately equal.


How Hard is NFL Betting Really? Why Not Consult FF-Winners.com? OMG! It’s Free!


Astute bettors know that at -110 odds (the standard for NFL picks against the spread), you need to win 52.4% of your bets to break even. That decimal is rounded up, so you’d actually make a tiny fraction in profit at that rate. Picking EVERY NFL GAME, with no points shopping or shaving, the FF-Winners self-taught AI computer has won 53.1%, 55.4% and 52.9% of ATS picks, respectively, in the last 3 years. These are publicly audited results. It is THE ONLY NFL SYSTEM (out of 65+ tracked) to be profitable against the pointspread  in each of the last 3 years!

Last year, each week we entered our top 5 rated  bets in the MyBookie NFL Supercontest. We finished 81st out of about 1500 participants for a $394 prize (on a $100 entry fee). We won 61.1 percent of our bets for almost a 300 percent return on investment!

Results from Supercontests suggest that only 30% of bettors are profitable over a season and that even the very best bettors  only score between 65% and 70%. Anybody claiming results above this (such as on Twitter or Facebook) is simply lying (or they could win $1.5 million in the Westgate Supercontest, for example).


Betting on the NFC Championship Game? Things to Know!

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  things style color championship betting 013369  Sunday 6:40 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers (14-3) at San Francisco 49ers (14-3)

This true heavyweight battle features the top two seeds in the NFC. Both teams are 14-3 and both are coming off a first round bye followed by a home win and cover in the Divisional Round. Green Bay raced out to a 21-3 against the Seahawks and held on for a 28-23 victory, covering as 4.5-point favorites. The Packers are riding a six-game winning streak and have gone 11-6 ATS on the season, including 5-3 ATS on the road. The 49ers took care of business in their playoff opener, beating the Vikings 27-10 as 7-point home favorites for their third straight win. San Francisco has gone 10-6-1 ATS on the season but just 4-4-1 ATS at home.

The NFC Championship game opened with the 49ers listed as a 7-point home favorite. Two-thirds of bets, including some early sharps, are backing San Francisco which has pushed the line up a half point to -7.5. Similar to the AFC Championship game, the juice is leaning on the road dog (Packers +7.5 at -115), signaling a possible drop back down to 7. Green Bay has value as a playoff dog +7 or more (37-26 ATS, 59% since 2003, including 6-2 ATS, 75% in conference title games). Home favorites like the 49ers are 14-12 ATS (53.8%) in conference title games. When the line moves toward a team in a conference title game (think -7 to -7.5), those teams have gone 16-9 ATS (64%) since 2003, including 10-5 ATS (66.7%) for favorites.

The total opened at 45. Two-thirds of bets are taking the over, yet the total hasn’t budged. Conference championship overs are 18-11 (62%) since 2003. But outdoor playoff unders are 77-58 (57%), including 4-2 this postseason. John Hussey, the lead ref, has historically favored home teams (54.7% ATS) and unders (56.6%). The forecast looks clear in Santa Clara with temperatures in the high 50s with little to no wind. The under is 10-7 in Packers games and 8-8-1 in 49ers games. San Francisco beat Green Bay 37-8 as 3-point home favorites in Week 12.


Betting on the AFC Championship Game? Things to Know!

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  things championship betting

Sunday 3:05 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans (11-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)

The Titans have quickly become the top storyline of the playoffs. Tennessee snuck in as the 6th seed and then proceeded to upset the Patriots 20-13 as a 4.5-point road dog on wild-card weekend then take down the top-seeded Ravens 28-12 as a 10-point road dog in the divisional round. Tennessee cashed %plussign0 on the moneyline in Round 1 and then %plussign@0 in Round 2. The Titans have gone 11-7 ATS this season including 7-3 ATS on the road. Derrick Henry has been unstoppable this postseason, rushing 64 times for 377 yards and a touchdown. Kansas City enters as the 2nd seed. The Chiefs fell behind big to the Texans 24-0 early in the divisional round, but stormed back to win 51-31 as 10-point favorites. Kansas City has gone 12-5 ATS this season, including 6-3 ATS at home. At Circa Sports, the Chiefs are the favorite to win the Super Bowl while the Titans have the longest odds of the four remaining teams

The AFC championship game, which kicks off at 3:05 p.m. ET, opened with Kansas City listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Chiefs at Arrowhead. However, despite two-thirds of bets backing Kansas City the line has remained frozen at 7.5 and the juice is trending toward Tennessee (+7.5 at -115), signaling liability on the road dog and a possible move down to 7. Playoff dogs +7 or more are 37-26 ATS (59%) since 2003, including 6-2 ATS (75%) in conference title games. When the line stays the same or moves toward a dog they’ve gone 59-42 ATS (58%), including 3-1 ATS this postseason. Home favorites like the Chiefs are 14-12 ATS (53.8%) in conference title games.

The total opened at 51.5 and has risen to 52 behind two-thirds of bets taking the over. Conference championship overs are 18-11 (62%) since 2003. The forecast calls for frigid temperatures (20 degrees) but no precipitation and only 3-4 MPH winds. When the temperature is less than 30 degrees the over is 116-81 (58.9%), including 24-14 (63.2%) in the postseason. Outdoor playoff unders are 4-2 this postseason and 77-58 (57%) since 2003. Tony Corrente, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (56.7%). Both teams have been profitable to the over this season, with the Titans 10-8 and Chiefs 9-8. The Titans beat the Chiefs 35-32 in Week 10, winning straight up as 5-point home dogs.