How Hard is NFL Betting Really? Why Not Consult FF-Winners.com? OMG! It’s Free!

Astute bettors know that using -110 odds (the standard for NFL picks against the spread), you’d need to win 52.4% of your bets. That decimal is rounded up, so you’d actually make a tiny fraction in profit at that rate. Picking EVERY NFL GAME, with no points shopping or shaving, the FF-Winners self-taught AI computer has won 53.1%, 55.4% and 52.9% of ATS picks respectively in the last 3 years. These are publically audited results.

Last year, each week we entered our top rated 5 bets   in the MyBookie NFL Supercontest. We finished 81st out of about 1500 participants for a $394 prize (on a $100 entry fee). We won 61.1 percent of our bets for almost a 300 percent return on investment!

This video discusses more about the odds in NFL Supercontests. Note that the contests are actually easier than real betting – because you can replace your bets as often as you want before  game time – thus ensuring you get the best price.


Betting on the NFC Championship Game? Things to Know!

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  things style color championship betting 013369  Sunday 6:40 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers (14-3) at San Francisco 49ers (14-3)

This true heavyweight battle features the top two seeds in the NFC. Both teams are 14-3 and both are coming off a first round bye followed by a home win and cover in the Divisional Round. Green Bay raced out to a 21-3 against the Seahawks and held on for a 28-23 victory, covering as 4.5-point favorites. The Packers are riding a six-game winning streak and have gone 11-6 ATS on the season, including 5-3 ATS on the road. The 49ers took care of business in their playoff opener, beating the Vikings 27-10 as 7-point home favorites for their third straight win. San Francisco has gone 10-6-1 ATS on the season but just 4-4-1 ATS at home.

The NFC Championship game opened with the 49ers listed as a 7-point home favorite. Two-thirds of bets, including some early sharps, are backing San Francisco which has pushed the line up a half point to -7.5. Similar to the AFC Championship game, the juice is leaning on the road dog (Packers +7.5 at -115), signaling a possible drop back down to 7. Green Bay has value as a playoff dog +7 or more (37-26 ATS, 59% since 2003, including 6-2 ATS, 75% in conference title games). Home favorites like the 49ers are 14-12 ATS (53.8%) in conference title games. When the line moves toward a team in a conference title game (think -7 to -7.5), those teams have gone 16-9 ATS (64%) since 2003, including 10-5 ATS (66.7%) for favorites.

The total opened at 45. Two-thirds of bets are taking the over, yet the total hasn’t budged. Conference championship overs are 18-11 (62%) since 2003. But outdoor playoff unders are 77-58 (57%), including 4-2 this postseason. John Hussey, the lead ref, has historically favored home teams (54.7% ATS) and unders (56.6%). The forecast looks clear in Santa Clara with temperatures in the high 50s with little to no wind. The under is 10-7 in Packers games and 8-8-1 in 49ers games. San Francisco beat Green Bay 37-8 as 3-point home favorites in Week 12.


Betting on the AFC Championship Game? Things to Know!

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  things championship betting

Sunday 3:05 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans (11-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)

The Titans have quickly become the top storyline of the playoffs. Tennessee snuck in as the 6th seed and then proceeded to upset the Patriots 20-13 as a 4.5-point road dog on wild-card weekend then take down the top-seeded Ravens 28-12 as a 10-point road dog in the divisional round. Tennessee cashed %plussign0 on the moneyline in Round 1 and then %plussign@0 in Round 2. The Titans have gone 11-7 ATS this season including 7-3 ATS on the road. Derrick Henry has been unstoppable this postseason, rushing 64 times for 377 yards and a touchdown. Kansas City enters as the 2nd seed. The Chiefs fell behind big to the Texans 24-0 early in the divisional round, but stormed back to win 51-31 as 10-point favorites. Kansas City has gone 12-5 ATS this season, including 6-3 ATS at home. At Circa Sports, the Chiefs are the favorite to win the Super Bowl while the Titans have the longest odds of the four remaining teams

The AFC championship game, which kicks off at 3:05 p.m. ET, opened with Kansas City listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Chiefs at Arrowhead. However, despite two-thirds of bets backing Kansas City the line has remained frozen at 7.5 and the juice is trending toward Tennessee (+7.5 at -115), signaling liability on the road dog and a possible move down to 7. Playoff dogs +7 or more are 37-26 ATS (59%) since 2003, including 6-2 ATS (75%) in conference title games. When the line stays the same or moves toward a dog they’ve gone 59-42 ATS (58%), including 3-1 ATS this postseason. Home favorites like the Chiefs are 14-12 ATS (53.8%) in conference title games.

The total opened at 51.5 and has risen to 52 behind two-thirds of bets taking the over. Conference championship overs are 18-11 (62%) since 2003. The forecast calls for frigid temperatures (20 degrees) but no precipitation and only 3-4 MPH winds. When the temperature is less than 30 degrees the over is 116-81 (58.9%), including 24-14 (63.2%) in the postseason. Outdoor playoff unders are 4-2 this postseason and 77-58 (57%) since 2003. Tony Corrente, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (56.7%). Both teams have been profitable to the over this season, with the Titans 10-8 and Chiefs 9-8. The Titans beat the Chiefs 35-32 in Week 10, winning straight up as 5-point home dogs. 


Two NFL Betting Trends That You Can Take to the Bank!

 

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  trends betting

Since 1991, NFL teams that win back-to-back games straight up as an underdog are just 40-68-2 Against The Spread in their next game if they are on the road and not getting more than 7 points.  In fact they are  19-48-1 ATS if visiting a non-divisional opponent.  What is the psychology driving this trend? Simply put: such teams are less motivated while their opponent is on high alert!

Home underdogs are 173-128-9 ATS if they won straight up as an underdog the previous week.   They feel confident!


What the Pros Know about Betting on Wildcard Games. Especially Today’s

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  wildcard today games especially betting about  By Josh Appelbaum  (VSiN.com)

January 4, 2020 12:04 AM

Welcome to Wild-Card Weekend. After starting out with 32 teams we are now down to 12. The NFL Playoffs and the quest for the Lombardi Trophy are officially upon us.

Betting on the NFL playoffs is much different than betting on the regular season. The teams are much better. The stakes are much higher. But most importantly for bettors, betting against the public increases because there are fewer games to bet on and each one is incredibly heavily bet. The market is flooded with recreational money, more so than any other time of year. As a result, savvy bettors willing to back unpopular teams see an increase in contrarian value due to public bias and shaded or inflated lines.

The betting public is biased toward favorites. Average Joes want to back the “better” team, especially this time of year. This provides more value to bet on underdogs. Since 2003, playoff underdogs have gone 95-76 ATS (55.6%) according to Bet Labs Sports. Regular season dogs are 50.5% ATS. So we see a 5.1% increase in the cover rate for playoff dogs versus regular season dogs.

Dogs that see line movement in their favor (think sharp action pushing a dog from plus 6 to plus 5.5) are even betting, going 36-12 ATS (75%) since 2003.

Experience also matters in the playoffs. Teams who made the playoffs the previous season have gone 99-85 ATS (53.8%) since 2003. If they are facing an inexperienced team who missed the playoffs the previous year they improve to 48-34 ATS (58.5%).

Also, unders have great value in the wild-card round. The public is biased toward overs, which creates more value to take advantage of inflated unders. wild-card unders have gone 40-24 (62.5%) since 2003.

Let’s discuss where the sharp money is flowing for today’s games.

4:35 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills (10-6, 5th seed) at Houston Texans (10-6, 4th seed)

Public bettors are having a hard time picking this game. Both teams have identical 10-6 records so how can you not take the team getting points? Buffalo is 6-2 on the road this season (including 6-1-1 ATS) and also enjoys a plus 55 point differential. Houston is 5-3 at home but just 2-6 ATS. The Texans are -7 in point differential. However, Average Joes also love backing favorites, home teams and star quarterbacks–especially when they’re laying short spreads. Deshaun Watson and company fit the bill.

Spread bets are split down the middle with a slight lean to the Texans, yet we’ve seen this line fall from Texans -3 to -2.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all aside from a slight juice adjustment if the tickets are even. This half-point drop signals sharp action on the Bills with wiseguys grabbing Buffalo at the key number of plus 3. The Bills went 9-6-1 ATS during the regular season while Houston was 7-8-1 ATS. The Bills have value as a playoff dog (55.6% ATS since 2003) and a playoff dog with a line move in their favor (75% ATS).

The total opened at 41.5– the lowest of any Wild Card Weekend Game. Pro money has pounded the over, driving the line up to 43.5. Both teams have been profitable to the under this season (BUF 12-4, HOU 9-7) and Tony Corrente, the lead ref, has historically favored unders as well (56.5%). However, playoff overs in domes or closed roof stadiums have gone 29-13 (69%) since 2003.

8:15 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans (9-7, 6th seed) at New England Patriots (12-4, 3rd seed)

This wild-card showdown kicks off in primetime Saturday night and features the love ’em or hate ’em Patriots, meaning it will be incredibly heavily bet. The Titans started the season 2-4 with Marcus Mariota, but then went 7-3 after making the switch to Ryan Tannehill. Tennessee played meaningful games down the stretch, defeating the Texans in Week 17 to secure the final playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Patriots looked very un-Patriot in the second half of the season. New England went 2-3 in their final five games, including a shocking loss to Miami in Week 17 as a 17-point favorite, which forced them to play on wild-card weekend instead of securing a first-round bye. Tom Brady finished with his worst QB rating (88.0) since 2013. Rumors are swirling that this could be Brady’s last game with the Pats.

The Patriots opened as 5.5-point home favorites. Early sharp money pounced on the Titans getting the points, which dropped the line down to 4.5. But then we saw wiseguys buy low on New England at a deflated -4.5, driving the number back up to -5 where it rests now. The Titans have value as a playoff road dog with a line move in their favor. Also, Brady and Belichick are 27-10 straight up (73%) in the playoffs since 2003 but just 19-18 ATS (52.4%). However, the Patriots look vulnerable and the media narrative all week is pounding the idea that the dynasty is coming to an end. This is usually when New England is at it’s best- when they’re underestimated and counted out. This is also a revenge game for the Pats, who lost to the Titans 34-10 in Week 11 last season.

The total has ticked up slightly from 43.5 to 44.5. Weather could play a big role here. The forecast calls for mid-30s, rain, 10 MPH winds and possibly some snow. John Hussey, the head official, historically favors home teams (55.4% ATS) and unders (56%). The Pats went 9-7 to the under this season but Tennessee went 10-6 to the over. Wild Card Weekend unders are 40-24 (62%) since 2003.


Stop Wasting Your Time and Start Applying Math to Your Sports Betting!

There is much about math and the NFL that one can discover and exploit!  Our AI software and researchers use the offseason to update our knowledge of mathematical laws and  betting probabilities.


Betting Preview: Smackdown Tonight! 8:20 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers (4-5) at Oakland Raiders (4-4)

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  tonight style preview color betting angeles 00008b  The Chargers are coming off their biggest win of the season, upsetting the mighty Packers 26-11 as 4-point home underdogs. Los Angeles has now won two straight after beating the Bears 17-16 as 3.5-point road dogs the week before. The Raiders are coming off a 31-24 win over the Lions, covering as 2.5-point favorites, which snapped a brief two-game losing streak. While their records are similar, these AFC West rivals have far different records against the spread (Chargers 3-5-1 ATS vs Raiders 5-3 ATS). However, the Chargers enjoy a +15 point differential while the Raiders sit at -34. Both teams average about the same in terms of points scored (Chargers 20.3 PPG vs Raiders 22.8 PPG). The difference is on defense where Los Angeles allows just 18.7 PPG compared to Oakland’s 27 PPG.

This Thursday Night showdown opened with Oakland listed as a short 2-point home favorite. Sharps immediately jumped on Los Angeles getting points. The public is also hammering the Chargers (more than two-thirds of bets), especially after their big win last week over Green Bay. This overload of both pro and Joe action has flipped the line to Chargers -1. Favorites have dominated Thursday Night Football historically. Since 2003, they have gone 110-78 ATS (58.5%) according to Bet Labs Sports. The Chargers have dominated this match up recently, going 4-1 straight up against Oakland in their last five meetings and 11-4 straight up in their last 15 on the road at Oakland.

The total opened at 47.5. Nearly two-thirds of bets are taking the over.This combination of heavy public and sharp action has pushed the line up to 49. If it rises any higher, we’ve likely to see some sharp under buyback. Prime time unders are 19-9 (68%) this year and divisional unders are 23-15 (61%). Unders are 7-2 in Chargers games but overs are 5-3 in Raiders games this season.


WEEK 6 BETTING NOTES

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  week 15 notes betting  Today marks the 6th Sunday of the NFL season. Through five weeks of play, we’ve seen a distinct advantage for underdogs. Dogs have gone 46-32 ATS (59%) according to Bet Labs Sports. A $100 bettor taking each one would be up $1,075. Not too bad. Road dogs have been especially profitable, going 34-18 ATS (65.4%). Divisional dogs have gone 15-9 ATS (62.5%). 

With these trends in mind, let’s take a look at five games receiving heavy smart money on Sunday. 

9:30 a.m. ET: Carolina Panthers (3-2) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3)

Who’s ready for an early morning NFC South London sweat? The Panthers started the season 0-2 with Cam Newton, but have now gone a perfect 3-0 with backup Kyle Allen. The Bucs have been Jekyll and Hyde through five weeks, rotating losses and wins each time out. This game opened with the Bucs listed as short 1-point favorites. Despite receiving just a slight majority of bets, we’ve seen a huge line move to Carolina (+1 to -2.5). Sharps hit the Panthers everywhere from +1 to a pick’em to -1.5. One big advantage to Carolina: Favorites have gone 13-9 ATS in London (59%) since 2003 according. We’ve seen some smart money drop the total from 48.5 to 47.5. Tottenham Stadium is expecting 15 mph winds, an edge to the Under. 

1 p.m. ET: Houston Texans (3-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)

The Chiefs lost their first game of the season last week, falling to the Colts at home 19-13 as 10.5 favorites on Sunday Night Football. The public says Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City are a powerhouse and are due for a big bounce back win and cover at home. But sharps are buying low on the Texans to keep it close. Houston is playing well as of late, winning three of their last four including a 53-32 blowout over the Falcons last week. This line opened with KC listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Despite two thirds of bets backing the Chiefs, the line has fallen all the way to -4. This sharp reverse line movement was caused by pros loading up on the Texans plus the points. Since 2003, dogs receiving at least 2.5-points of reverse line movement have covered 55.7% of the time. Sharps also love this under. The total opened at 55.5 and the public is pounding the Over, yet it’s fallen to 54.5. 

1 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks (4-1) at Cleveland Browns (2-3)

This line has been all over the place. The Browns initially opened as 2.5-point home favorites. The public remembers Cleveland being embarrassed 31-3 by San Francisco on Monday night and wants nothing to do with them. This line opened with Cleveland listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Nearly seven-out-of-ten bets are backing Seattle. This lopsided support caused the line to move to Seattle -2.5. But then sharps hammered the Browns plus the points, causing the line to fall down to a pick’em. Essentially, sharps waited for heavy public betting to move the number bigly to Seattle so they could get extra points with the Browns at home. Teams coming off a 20-point loss or more have covered the next game 54.1% of the time since 2003. Pros have also targeting the under. The total opened at 47 and has been bet down to 46. The Dawg Pound is expecting 15 mph winds.

1 p.m. ET: New Orleans (4-1) at Jacksonville (2-3)

On paper this looks like an easy layup with New Orleans. After all, the Saints are 4-1 and have won three straight. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is 2-3 and just lost to Carolina 34-27. So why on Earth did the oddsmakers open this game as a pick’em? Public bettors are hammering the Saints. But despite New Orleans receiving two thirds of bets, the line has moved to Jacksonville -3. Why would the books continue to hand out additional points to public Saints backers when they’re already on New Orleans to begin with? Because pros have been getting down hard on the Jags, creating big liability for the house and forcing the books to move the number bigly in their favor. An added bonus to the Jags: Jerome Boger is the lead referee. Since 2003, home teams have 55% ATS (+12.96 units) with Boger as the lead official. Smart money has also hit the Under. The total has fallen from 44 to 42.5 since opening.

4:05 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers (4-0) at Los Angeles Rams (3-2)

This late afternoon NFC West showdown is the most popular and heavily bet game of the day. The Rams have lost two straight, including a 30-29 heartbreaker to the Seahawks last Thursday night. The public says Los Angeles is a great team and “due” for a big bounce back win and cover at home. But sharps aren’t buying the conventional wisdom. They’re backing the undefeated 49ers in a rare contrarian road dog spot. The Rams opened as a 4-point home favorite. Two thirds of bets are backing Los Angeles. This heavy betting pushed the line up to 4.5. That’s when you saw wiseguys get down hard on the 49ers, causing the line to fall all the way down to 3. Todd Gurley’s injury was also a factor in the line movement. The stud RB is out with a thigh contusion. The 49ers are contrarian in a heavily bet game and also a road divisional dog (10-5 ATS this season). Pros have also hit the over, pushing the total from 48.5 to 50.5. 

More sharp action

Dolphins +4.5 to +4 vs Redskins
Vikings -3 to -3.5 vs Eagles


How to Excel at Sports Betting

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Sports Betting  sports excel betting  Introduction

The world of betting and gambling often draws mixed reactions. The people who bet regularly have all praises for it while those who have not tried or have  not got  had good experience with it, do not vouch for it. However, like any other game or profession, betting too is often more than fun and can  become a serious business.  Read this article and find some useful information on getting started with sports betting.

Getting started

There are different forms of betting. The regular way to bet is to visit a reputed casino like bcasino and play different kinds of card games or similar games and to put your money as bets. However, there are other forms of betting as well. In sports betting, you have to bet on different kind of sports as per the situation and options available for you.  To get started, you have to first select a sport on which you are interested in betting. It is not required to have  any skills to bet. However, it does require skill to make a successful bet – and to do it successfully on a regular basis requires much more than luck or chance. So let’s find out how the world of sports betting works!

Knowledge and grip of the sport

When you have to bet on a sport, you should first of all select a sport. So the next question arises is what kind of sport you should pick? Well you should basically pick a sport on which you have knowledge about. There are hundreds of popular sports in the world and it might be that you are aware of most of them. However in order to do better, you should have a firm grip and grasp on the sport on which you would like to bed.

You might think that you know lots of things about the sport and you can bet on it on any given day. However, there are different factors and refinements that are needed to enhance your knowledge of the sport. Let’s try to understand it with help of an example:

Let us pick up a sport first. If you like to bet on tennis, then you should be a Tennis fan. You might know who is the present world number one in the men’s tennis and you might be aware about lots of other things. But in order to bet, you have to analyze a particular match or a tournament. In case of tennis, if you concentrate on the present situation, the hot bids to  would be on whether Nadal  would overtake Novak Djokovic and end up  also as well number one by the end of the year? Now in order to get this correctly, you have to analyze different factors.

Unbiased analysis

First of all, you should check out the present points difference between the two players. If the difference is too much, then it is unlikely that Nadal is going to over take Djokovic. The next thing that you have to analyze is the schedule of the two players. You should ensure and confirm the kinds of tournaments that they are going to play in the next few months till December. These are the tournaments in which they can gain points.

At the same time, you should be aware about how tennis rankings system works. In some cases, a certain player does not participate in a particular tournament that he has participated last year, then he would lose those points. Another important factor that you have to analyze is the fitness level. If the fitness level of the players is questionable, then it is unlikely that they are going to participate in tournaments and even if they do they are not likely to perform well.

Now as you can understand,  all this analysis is required for knowledge and great understanding of the sport concerned. The same case is with the other sports. 

Learning from experience

Apart from the knowledge of the sport, you should also understand other aspects of a profession. If you would like to become successful in sports betting or any other profession, there is a mental aspect that you also have to deal with. You should know how to deal with the tough times. You should be aware of handling the situation and when things are not working your way. This is the most important thing to learn in life. You should be able to hold your emotions and be patient with results.

If you can survive the tough times, then you can always look back and learn from the past mistakes that you have made and improve  on them.  Maintain this on a regular basis, and grow your experience of the game of the sport of the profession and ultimately you are able to use that experience in future to enhance your gambling or sports betting skills. If you follow these instructions and  learn from your own experience and use your own brain and common sense  when required, you would gradually be able to master the art of sports betting or any other profession for that matter.

Final words

 A final word of advice would be to not rush  things and start betting great amounts of money. This can cause  heavy losses. Until and unless you are sure about your bets, try to start with small amounts and gradually learn from the experience and then increase the betting amounts. In this way, you will develop yourself as a good professional and successful sports bettor.


The Quickest & Easiest Ways To Winning NFL BETTING

Using Multiple Sportbooks is a no-brainer for those who care about growing their bottom line. Always, shop around for the best odds!