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The Proper Mindset for NFL Betting Success

PLEASE BET RESPONSIBLY and STAY WHOLE!

WATCH: NFL Betting Panel Discussion

This is an excellent sports betting Q and A with interesting and actionable
information that you can apply today. Highly Recommended! Tells it like it IS…

The Mathematical Approach To Sports Betting

2021-22 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Gambling Sports Betting Statistics  style sports mathematical color betting approach 011369   

Introduction
Betting is all about chance. That said, there are mathematical approaches and numbers-based strategies that can tip the odds in your favor. They’re used by savvy and serious bettors who want to turn a profit consistently.
You’ll still be at the mercy of luck or circumstance but you can at least give yourself an edge when your money is on the line. Here you’ll find some common yet effective mathematical strategies for sports betting.

The House Sometimes Wins
When taking the numbers-based approach to sports betting, you need to first understand the underlying rule that makes betting profitable for casinos and sportsbooks – the house always wins. This means that the odds are slightly skewed so that, on a long enough timeframe, the establishment will always profit from the action.
Think of your wagers as being against the sportsbook, who want to earn as much cash as possible. The house always wins in the end but people often do beat them at their own game. That means the house sometimes wins and, if you do your homework, you can be one of those people who find profit in their wagers.

The House Edge
The house always wins because of the house edge, which is also called the vig or the juice in sports betting circles and is the primary way many bookmakers make back their money. The vig/juice is just the difference between the odds of the game and the odds that the bookmakers offer on wagers placed on that game.
A simple example that demonstrates this well is where two teams are evenly matched, so a 50/50 chance of winning. The bookmakers won’t offer the same odds. Instead, they’ll wait and see which team is the most popular with the betting crowd (typically the home-playing team for sports like baseball and football), and then they’ll slant the odds on that side so they pocket a small percentage of everybody’s winnings, often 4%-5% but it differs on the sports and the exact situation. The people who bet on that favorite team won’t win as much.
Yes, this means that the odds are literally stacked against you, but that’s how your favorite sportsbooks stay in business. To reiterate, the house edge guarantees profit over time, so your individual betting actions can still be profitable and take money away from the house.

Mathematical Betting Approaches

Fixed Profit Betting
This is a simple concept that demands you increase your net profit by a fixed amount with every consecutive bet. This is typically done by using the following equation:
Bet amount = Profit/(Odds – 1)
Or B = P/(O-1) for short.
As an example, let’s say you want to make $100 in profit and the given odds are 1.5.
That would be 100 divided by 1.4, so $71.4.
This method means that a bettor doesn’t lose too much of their bankroll in a short amount of time while constantly attempting to make profits, so it’s aggressive and defensive at the same time. You need to have a 3% to 5% yield on your bankroll for it to be sustainable.

Proportional Betting
Proportional betting (not to be confused with prop bets) is where a bettor decides on a fixed percentage to increase your bet after each win. This multiplies your winnings while keeping your loss rate at a minimum.

The Maria Staking Plan
This is a quite well-known staking plan named after a British woman who reported turning £3,000 to £100,000 on horse racing over just 300 days. It works by dividing potential bets into three groups depending on the odds given for any game.
The system was outlined as follows:
If the odds are lower than 3.5, you should bet 1% of your bankroll.
If the odds are between 3.5 to 7.4, place 0.6% of your bankroll.
If between 7.5 and 11, stake 0.4% of the bankroll.
If the odds are above 11, do not take the bet at all.
Then, once the day is over, recalculate using the increased bankroll. That means your percentage values stay the same but you wager more as you earn more, with an expected strike rate of 85% if you can mimic Maria’s success.

5 Tips for Betting On NFL Football!

The Amazing NFL Point Differential Betting System

2021-22 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Artificial Intelligence NFL Forecasting Sports Betting Technology  style point differential color betting amazing 011369  If you are looking for some ideas in building an NFL prediction model
this is a great article to get you going. Unlike many systems, it takes the strength of each team’s opponents into account:

https://www.liveabout.com/nfl-point-differential-betting-system-3116692

How You Can Analyze Sports Betting Line Movement Like a Pro!

A VERY IMPORTANT VIDEO! WATCH IT 3 TIMES!!

Line movement in point spread betting is all about sportsbooks making the suggested margin of victory more attractive or less attractive. If you notice the numbers in a point spread bet getting higher over time (ie, more points between the teams), it means the majority of money is being placed on the favorite. But what else is worth noting?

Simple Baseball Winning Betting Tip Revealed!

Arbitrage Betting: Good, Bad or Ugly?

We hope you will think twice before arbitrage betting!  Build a good betting model

and you won’t need to rely on it.  On the other hand, nearly all bookies are arbitrage bettors

if you think about it….

4 Things You Must Know About Sports Betting

Sports betting is not impossible – provided you are level-headed and disciplined.

 

The NFL Shatters the Sports Betting Marketplace!

The Worst Sports Betting Strategy Ever!

Why People Fail in Sports Betting

This video has some excellent insights and advice!

Online Sports Betting: – Essential Factors to Know About Betting Sites

2021-22 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Uncategorized  style sports online essential color betting 013369  The popularity of betting sites has reached to high peak. Nowadays, online sports betting has become very famous all over the world. The best betting sites allow players to pick the different types of sports to place bet easily.

You must choose a trustworthy online platform such as vasindia.in to get several advantages from the betting sites. When you select the betting websites, you will feel very profitable instead of selecting any local casinos. Taking participation in sports betting leagues is very proficient for both beginners and professional players.

Thus, the registration of reputable betting sites is straightforward and easy; if you want to know about the odds of signing up for your account, you can complete the process easily. Bonuses and promotional deals are helping you to manage the budget. The different offers and discounts enable you to gather a few funds to place a bet on your favorite games.

Five important features of certified and reputed betting sites

When you search for an online source of earning money, it can be easy for you to make profits from well-known betting sites. Lots of players are attracting to the exclusive bonuses and rewards of online sports betting sites. The system of withdrawing money is straightforward and quick in popular betting sites. There are plenty of financial benefits of choosing well-reputed betting sites. Have a look at the fantastic features of online betting India platforms.

  • If you register yourself at the betting sites, then you can earn impressive jackpots and other deals. We recommend you try the several sports game categories to get a vast knowledge of betting sites. The number of betting sites offers you great satisfaction in the form of the best odds. It would be best if you tried the alternative betting sites to get a higher rate of profits. The various betting activity gave you the option to choose the live betting and had the opportunity to make lots of money.

  • It is essential that you are sure about the betting sites are fully secure and safe for you. The significant part about online sports betting is that you can place a bet anywhere, which place you most prefer. And the other thing is that with any player, you can compete in sports betting, as online sports betting encourages social interaction with other players.

  • The quality betting sites are the best, which provides you with only winning chances from several betting tournaments and events. Online sports betting makes you master the betting world and increase your knowledge about gambling games. Ideally, the number of betting sites introduces various opportunities to its players. If you need to meet new opportunities, you should find trustworthy online sports betting sites.

  • The best online betting websites provide fast and easy withdrawal systems to all the bettors. Make sure you have all the information related to the terms and guidelines of betting sites. After checking all the conditions, you should start trying your luck on online sports betting through popular betting sites.

  • The mist reliable betting sites are only one who offers the transparent services to players. Once you have read the policy, you should take action on the different types of payment methods. All the popular betting sites ensure their players call the customer support system to inquire. If you contact the supportive callers, they can support you in all manners. When you have made an inquiry, then you will receive the response in 1to 3 working hours.

Check the benefits of choosing reputable betting sites

Nowadays, you can place a bet online in any sports game. Also, there are lots of advantages to choosing reputable betting sites to place the bet. Have a look at the fantastic benefits of certified betting sites.

  • Popular betting sites give you an entire comfort zone and freedom to play online sports betting. You can choose to play anytime in the day, whenever you are free from your essential work. Even when you are with your friends, you can play with your beloved ones by login into reputable betting sites.

  • You can access a broad category of payment options, where you can select reliable and fast methods to make your deposit in sports betting. The various payment method includes debit card, e-banking, credit card and PayPal etc.

Furthermore, the well-known betting sites gives you the ultimate options of software , where you can choose the latest one to place bets on a sports game.

Crush Your Bookie with these 10 NBA Betting Tips

NFC Wildcard Betting Notes for 01/08-9/21

 

2021-22 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting NFL Picks Sports Betting  wildcard notes betting  Saturday 4:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

This NFC West showdown between division rivals is the middle game of Saturday’s tripleheader. The Rams (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) squeaked into the playoffs as the 6-seed, beating the Cardinals 18-7 as 1-point home favorites in the regular season finale. Los Angeles finished + 76 in point differential on the season. The Rams will lean on the coaching on Sean McVay and their stellar defense as they once again turn to rookie John Wolford in place of the injured Jared Goff. Wolford won his debut over Arizona last week, throwing for 231 yards, no touchdowns, 1 interception and rushed for 56 yards. Meanwhile, the Seahawks (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS) finished the regular season on a high-note, winning four straight and beating the 49ers 26-23 in Week 17, although they failed to cover as 7-point road favorites. Seattle won the NFC West and earned the 3-seed, finishing + 88 in point differential for the season. This line opened with Seattle listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. This public is laying the short spread with Russell Wilson at home. However, we’ve seen a sharp move to the road dog, with the Rams falling from + 4.5 to + 4. Some shops are even touching 3.5. Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor of at least a half-point are roughly 75% ATS over the past decade. The Rams also have value as a divisional dog and a dog with a low total. The total has dipped slightly from 43 to 42.5. Both of these teams were profitable to the under this season, with the Rams 12-4 and Seahawks 9-7. John Hussey, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (57%). Outdoor playoff unders are roughly 57% over the past decade. The Seahawks beat the Rams 20-9 in Week 16. Los Angeles beat Seattle 23-16 in Week 10.

Saturday 8:15 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team

This primetime non-conference matchup is the late game on Saturday night. Tom Brady has led the Buccaneers (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) to the playoffs for the first time since 2007. Tampa Bay played their best football down the stretch, winning their final four games and waxing the Falcons 44-27 in Week 17, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Tampa enters as the 5-seed and finished + 137 in point differential. Meanwhile, Washington (7-9 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) snuck into the playoffs by beating the Eagles 20-14 in Week 17, although they failed to cover as 6.5-point road favorites. Washington went 5-2 down the stretch and won the NFC East, earning the 4-seed. This line opened with the Bucs listed as a hefty 7.5-point or 8-point road favorite. The public is absolutely hammering Brady and the Bucs, expecting an easy win and cover. This lopsided action moved the line up to Tampa -9. That’s when we saw some buyback on Washington, dropping the line back to 8.5. Washington is your top contrarian play of the weekend as they are only receiving about one-third of bets in a primetime game. Big playoff dogs of + 7 or more are roughly 57% ATS over the past decade. Tampa Bay is in prime teaser territory. If you drop them from -8.5 to -2.5 you pass through two key numbers (7 and 3). We’ve also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 46.5 to 45. The Bucs are 9-7 to the over this season, but Washington is 10-5-1 to the under. This under matches a pair of profitable playoff systems: outdoor unders and Wild Card unders that drop (roughly 60% over the past decade).

Sunday 4:40 p.m. ET: Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints

This NFC late-afternoon Sunday showdown features the biggest spread of Wild Card Weekend. The Bears (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS) got crushed by the Packers 35-16 in Week 17, failing to cover as 4.5-point home dogs. However, Chicago still snuck into the playoffs as the 7th and final seed thanks to a tie-breaker over the Cardinals. Chicago finished the regular season + 2 in point differential, second worst of all playoffs teams ahead of only Cleveland (-11). Meanwhile, the Saints (12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) won the NFC South and finished tied for the second-best record in the conference, trailing only the Packers. New Orleans crushed Carolina 33-7 in Week 17, easily covering as 6-point road favorites. The Saints finished + 145 in point differential, best in the NFC. This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. This public is all over the Saints and happy to fade Mitchell Trubisky. This lopsided support has pushed the line up to the key number of 10. We’ve seen some buyback on the Bears at + 10, with juice hinting toward a possible drop back to 9.5. Chicago has value as a contrarian playoff dog with an inflated line. Big playoff dogs of + 7 or more are roughly 57% ATS over the past decade. We’ve also seen some under money hit the market, dropping the total from 47.5 to 47. The Saints were 10-6 to the over this season, with Chicago 8-8. Playoff dome game overs are roughly 70% over the past decade. The big question mark here is Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. Both are questionable.

–Josh Appelbaum  VSIN

More Than You Want to Know about Betting NFL Teasers

What is a NFL Teaser Bet? A teaser bet is a group of straight bets (two or more) combined into one bet, where each individual line has been shifted to your favour by the number of points of the teaser. There are three main NFL teasers – 6, 6.5 and 7 point teasers.

We DO NOT recommend betting teasers – but still it is educational to
know about them. So here ya go…………….

CHRISTMAS NFL BETTING REPORT – Vikings Versus Saints

2021-22 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Sports Betting Statistics Team News  vikings versus saints report christmas betting  4:30 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

This late afternoon Christmas Day showdown features a pair of NFC opponents looking to snap two-game losing skids. The Vikings (6-8 SU, 6-8 ATS) just fell to the Bears 33-27 last week, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. Minnesota is technically still alive for a playoff spot but would need to win their final two games and get some serious help in order to sneak in. Meanwhile, the Saints (10-4 SU 7-6-1 ATS) just lost to the Chiefs 32-29, pushing as 3-point home dogs. New Orleans has already clinched a playoff spot and is currently the 2-seed in the NFC. They could rise as high as the 1-seed or fall to the 3-seed depending on how the final two games play out. Minnesota is -28 in point differential this season. New Orleans is + 100.

This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public is all over the Saints, expecting a bounce-back cover against a struggling Vikings squad that just lost to the Bears at home. However, despite this lopsided support we’ve seen the line fall from Saints -7.5 to -7. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Vikings, with respected pro bettors grabbing the points, not laying them. Minnesota has heightened contrarian value as they are only receiving about one-third of bets in what will be an incredibly heavily bet game. The Vikings also have value as a road dog off a loss (56% ATS this season) and a dog with a line move in their favor (60% ATS). Despite both teams being profitable to the over this season (Vikings 9-4-1 and Saints 9-5), we’ve seen this total fall from 52 to 51. This signals some sharp money backing the under.

NFL Betting News & Power Rankings 2020 WEEK 16!

 

2021-22 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Team News  rankings power betting  Playoff Field Taking Shape
After Week 15 we are getting a clear idea about the contenders and the pretenders in the NFL. Let’s take a look at the power rankings for the top five teams in each conference still in postseason contention. All playoff-eligible teams will have accompanying Super Bowl odds in parentheses and we will also see what the NFL point spreads are on their upcoming games this week.
AFC Power Rankings
Kansas City Chiefs (13-1, +175) – Patrick Mahomes is the NFL’s new king and why wouldn’t his team be listed at the top of the AFC heap? There is little doubt the defending Super Bowl champs will be getting a first-round bye to lick their wounds and get ready to feast on whichever team draws the short straw and advances to meet them in the second round. Kansas City is currently listed as 10-point favorites over the Falcons this week.
Buffalo Bills (11-3, +1200) – Josh Allen is a rising star and anyone who took shots at the 6’5” Wyoming product is sitting silently now. The Bills defense has not been quite as good as many suspected heading into this season but the addition of Stefon Diggs to the offense has more than compensated for that slight regression. The Bills Mafia has finally found the enforcers they need to defend their turf.
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2, +1200) – The Steelers will most likely be 12-2 by the time this gets published, as a Monday night date with the Bengals looms. Pittsburgh was the last undefeated team in the league but was unceremoniously dumped by Washington and followed that up with another setback to the emerging Buffalo Bills. The Steelers are being listed as 2 ½ point favorites over the Colts this week.
Indianapolis Colts (10-4, +3300) – Phillip Rivers left his longtime home in San Diego for the midwestern feel of Indianapolis and it’s worked out just fine for both parties. The Colts needed a bona fide quarterback and they got one with the 39-year-old Pro Bowler. Currently in a death struggle with Tennessee for AFC South supremacy, the Colts are 2 ½ point underdogs to the Steelers this week in what should be a marquee matchup.
Tennessee Titans (10-4, +2800) – With all due respect to the upstart Cleveland Browns, we have to give a slight edge to the Titans, a team that went all the way to the AFC Championship game last year before they bowed to the Chiefs. Ryan Tannehill’s career has made a Lazarus-like comeback and the Titans are a tough out for any opponent. Tennessee is being listed as 3 ½ point road underdogs to the Packers this week.
NFC Power Rankings
Green Bay Packers (11-3, +600) – The Packers are the favorites to dethrone the Chiefs this season as Super Bowl champs but that will be a tall task to be sure. Aaron Rodgers has been playing like a man possessed, and that might have something to do with the Packers drafting quarterback Jordan Love in the first-round as the heir-apparent to the throne. Needless to say, Rodgers isn’t going anywhere, anytime soon but the similarities between this situation and his own when waiting for Brett Favre to cede the reins is striking. The Packers are 3 ½ point home favorites over the Titans in Week 16.
New Orleans Saints (10-4, +800) – Drew Brees is another aging veteran leading his team to the promised land but he had been doing so on the sidelines after suffering several broken ribs and a collapsed lung against the 49ers in Week 10. He recently returned to action in a 32-29 loss to Kansas City which might have been a Super Bowl preview. The Saints are currently installed as seven-point favorites over the Vikings in a special Friday night matchup.
Seattle Seahawks (10-4, +1200) – Ironically, the team known for bone-jarring defenses in the past has one of the most porous this season. Yet, the offense led by Russell Wilson is so prolific that they have been able to overcome their defensive shortcomings. The Seahawks have won four of their last five but will be tested this weekend when they face the LA Rams as two-point home favorites.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-4, +1200) – What a difference a quarterback makes, right? The Bucs have been on the outside looking in when the playoffs start for over a decade but now that Tom Terrific is pulling the levers in the Sunshine State, a postseason spot is there’s for the taking. The Bucs rallied from 17 points down to claim a 31-27 decision over the Falcons last week and are being dealt as 8 ½ point road dogs against the Lions this week.
Arizona Cardinals (8-6, +6000) – While many would put the Rams somewhere in the top five, it’s simply too difficult to do so after they lost to the worst team in football this past week. If you didn’t know, Los Angeles dropped a 23-20 decision to the Jets which makes the Cardinals the better team. That might be black and white logic at work but Kyler Murray is the real deal and will make noise in the postseason, just you wait. Arizona has been installed as 3 ½ point favorites over the 49ers on Saturday.

WATCH: First look at 2020 Week 15 NFL Betting Lines