What the Pros Know about Betting on Wildcard Games. Especially Today’s

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  wildcard today games especially betting about   By Josh Appelbaum  (VSiN.com)

January 4, 2020 12:04 AM

Welcome to Wild-Card Weekend. After starting out with 32 teams we are now down to 12. The NFL Playoffs and the quest for the Lombardi Trophy are officially upon us.

Betting on the NFL playoffs is much different than betting on the regular season. The teams are much better. The stakes are much higher. But most importantly for bettors, betting against the public increases because there are fewer games to bet on and each one is incredibly heavily bet. The market is flooded with recreational money, more so than any other time of year. As a result, savvy bettors willing to back unpopular teams see an increase in contrarian value due to public bias and shaded or inflated lines.

The betting public is biased toward favorites. Average Joes want to back the “better” team, especially this time of year. This provides more value to bet on underdogs. Since 2003, playoff underdogs have gone 95-76 ATS (55.6%) according to Bet Labs Sports. Regular season dogs are 50.5% ATS. So we see a 5.1% increase in the cover rate for playoff dogs versus regular season dogs.

Dogs that see line movement in their favor (think sharp action pushing a dog from plus 6 to plus 5.5) are even betting, going 36-12 ATS (75%) since 2003.

Experience also matters in the playoffs. Teams who made the playoffs the previous season have gone 99-85 ATS (53.8%) since 2003. If they are facing an inexperienced team who missed the playoffs the previous year they improve to 48-34 ATS (58.5%).

Also, unders have great value in the wild-card round. The public is biased toward overs, which creates more value to take advantage of inflated unders. wild-card unders have gone 40-24 (62.5%) since 2003.

Let’s discuss where the sharp money is flowing for today’s games.

4:35 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills (10-6, 5th seed) at Houston Texans (10-6, 4th seed)

Public bettors are having a hard time picking this game. Both teams have identical 10-6 records so how can you not take the team getting points? Buffalo is 6-2 on the road this season (including 6-1-1 ATS) and also enjoys a plus 55 point differential. Houston is 5-3 at home but just 2-6 ATS. The Texans are -7 in point differential. However, Average Joes also love backing favorites, home teams and star quarterbacks–especially when they’re laying short spreads. Deshaun Watson and company fit the bill.

Spread bets are split down the middle with a slight lean to the Texans, yet we’ve seen this line fall from Texans -3 to -2.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all aside from a slight juice adjustment if the tickets are even. This half-point drop signals sharp action on the Bills with wiseguys grabbing Buffalo at the key number of plus 3. The Bills went 9-6-1 ATS during the regular season while Houston was 7-8-1 ATS. The Bills have value as a playoff dog (55.6% ATS since 2003) and a playoff dog with a line move in their favor (75% ATS).

The total opened at 41.5– the lowest of any Wild Card Weekend Game. Pro money has pounded the over, driving the line up to 43.5. Both teams have been profitable to the under this season (BUF 12-4, HOU 9-7) and Tony Corrente, the lead ref, has historically favored unders as well (56.5%). However, playoff overs in domes or closed roof stadiums have gone 29-13 (69%) since 2003.

8:15 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans (9-7, 6th seed) at New England Patriots (12-4, 3rd seed)

This wild-card showdown kicks off in primetime Saturday night and features the love ’em or hate ’em Patriots, meaning it will be incredibly heavily bet. The Titans started the season 2-4 with Marcus Mariota, but then went 7-3 after making the switch to Ryan Tannehill. Tennessee played meaningful games down the stretch, defeating the Texans in Week 17 to secure the final playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Patriots looked very un-Patriot in the second half of the season. New England went 2-3 in their final five games, including a shocking loss to Miami in Week 17 as a 17-point favorite, which forced them to play on wild-card weekend instead of securing a first-round bye. Tom Brady finished with his worst QB rating (88.0) since 2013. Rumors are swirling that this could be Brady’s last game with the Pats.

The Patriots opened as 5.5-point home favorites. Early sharp money pounced on the Titans getting the points, which dropped the line down to 4.5. But then we saw wiseguys buy low on New England at a deflated -4.5, driving the number back up to -5 where it rests now. The Titans have value as a playoff road dog with a line move in their favor. Also, Brady and Belichick are 27-10 straight up (73%) in the playoffs since 2003 but just 19-18 ATS (52.4%). However, the Patriots look vulnerable and the media narrative all week is pounding the idea that the dynasty is coming to an end. This is usually when New England is at it’s best- when they’re underestimated and counted out. This is also a revenge game for the Pats, who lost to the Titans 34-10 in Week 11 last season.

The total has ticked up slightly from 43.5 to 44.5. Weather could play a big role here. The forecast calls for mid-30s, rain, 10 MPH winds and possibly some snow. John Hussey, the head official, historically favors home teams (55.4% ATS) and unders (56%). The Pats went 9-7 to the under this season but Tennessee went 10-6 to the over. Wild Card Weekend unders are 40-24 (62%) since 2003.


WATCH: What Everybody Should Know about NFL Hurdles

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Football Highlights Videos  watch style should everybody color about 00008b   Do NFL Hurdles Make You Feel Jumpy?   CLICK HERE!


WATCH: The Truth About NFL Playbooks in 3 Minutes

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Strategy Podcasts  watch truth shocking truth behind facebook playbooks minutes about   The strategic contribution of the NFL playbook should not be underestimated.

 

CLICK HERE!


WATCH: Amazing Facts We Bet You Never Knew About NFL TEAM HISTORY

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Fandom Team News  watch never history facts amazing about

CLICK ME!


FILM STUDY: The Shocking Truth about Eli Manning

Mr. Manning may have overcome his biggest weakness! How will he do in 2019?

VIDEO: What Everybody is Saying About #1 Draft Pick Kyle Murray

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Draft Player News Quarterbacks Videos  video saying murray everybody draft about

If Kyle starts out like Patrick Mahomes or Baker Mayfield, the NFL could become
increasingly competitive!

 

CLICK HERE!

FILM STUDY: The Shocking Truth about Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid System

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Coaches Film Study NFL Strategy Uncategorized  truth system study shocking kliff kingsbury about   This system could quickly propel the Arizona Cardinals to be contenders  in the tough NFC West.

 

ATTACK this LINK!

The Shocking Truth about the Kelly Betting System

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Financial and Small Business Sports Betting Statistics  truth system shocking kelly kelley betting system betting about   The Kelly System is designed to maximize your “betting edge” while minimizing your “risk of ruin”.
But is that true? Should you use it?

CLICK HERE!


3 Facts about Gambling Online for Beginners

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Gambling Uncategorized  online gambling facts beginners about

There are so many things you need to learn about gambling online. You may spend a lot of time looking for information relating to Bitcasino and all other types of casinos online. But basic information from a team of experts will help you to get started. Gambling is addictive. You may make or lose money in the process. But knowing a few facts about gambling can help you mitigate the risks involved. Some important information about gambling may also help you to make the right decisions. Remember you also need to be careful on the gambling sites and opt to visit genuine and secure sites. With a few tips, you can easily identify such sites online.

Here are 3 facts about gambling online for beginners:

  1. Betting systems

You should not follow betting systems blindly. Most games have an independent event and mostly, it all depends on luck and skills gained over the years. As a beginner, it is important to start small. You should only bet an amount of money that you can afford to lose. With time, you can take higher risks. But relying on past events or betting systems to make money through gambling may not work for you. Raising or lowering your stakes in gambling due to certain situations should not be your guiding principle in gambling. With time, you will learn more about what works and what doesn’t. Learn patiently instead of relying on betting systems that may not work and that may lead to huge financial losses.

  1. Gambling currencies

It is good to know the type of currency you can use in online gambling. Most people are aware of payment through dollars or any other currency. Payment in online gaming may be done through the use of credit cards. Bitcoins are becoming more popular these days. You may also gamble online using bitcoins at genuine bitcoin casino sites. To play in a bitcoin casino, you will need to get a bitcoin wallet, mint bitcoins and anonymously play online at any of the best bitcoin casinos in the world.

  1. Mitigating risks

Some people believe that online casino gambling is riskier than normal casinos. This is not true. If you identify reputable casinos online, you will enjoy and maybe win on your bets. It is important to identify genuine casinos that offer genuine gambling chances. Though in most cases, casinos have an edge in betting, some casinos play by the rules and in such cases, your chances of winning are very high. There are various casino player forums online that can help you get some tips on gambling. You may learn a few things that may help you avoid the risks involved in gambling. Through social media and networking, you can also learn additional tips on online on risk mitigation.

PODCAST: What Every Bettor Must Know NOW About the Vegas Pointspread!

We think that you will find this video very informative. Among other things it
helps to explain why the FF-Winners power rankings and computer game picks are likely
to be consistent winning tools for years to come: they do not contain human bias , favoritism and they are not shortsighted. Moreover they adapt to evolving football strategy and performance. Enjoy! It is our pleasure to help you be successful.