Winning Tips to Managing (and Growing) Your Sports Betting Bank Roll

HINT: FLAT BET!

Statistical Keys to Winning Bets in the 2020 NFL Season

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Office Sports Betting  winning season  This guide should be on every bettor’s bulletin board:

Josh Appelbaum (VSIN.COM) writes:

Week 1 provides several profitable edges that bettors should be aware of. According to Bet Labs Sports, Week 1 divisional underdogs have gone 51-32 ATS (61.4%) since 2003. This is due to the built in familiarity between divisional opponents, which levels the playing field and benefits the team getting points. Big Week 1 dogs getting 6.5 points or more have also been a smart bet, going 38-22 ATS (63.3%).

Another profitable opportunity in Week 1 is backing teams that missed the playoffs the previous year against teams that made the playoffs. They’ve gone 59-46 ATS (56.2%). This is the ultimate buy-low value play because you’re capitalizing on recency bias. The public will be inclined to blindly back teams who made the playoffs because that’s the last thing they remember from the previous year. In turn, they’ll blindly fade non-playoff teams. This creates a contrarian spot where you’re taking advantage of shaded numbers.

Aside from studying the Week 1 lines, another key aspect of the 2020 schedule is focusing on bye weeks and Thursday Night Football matchups. These unique scheduling spots have provided a significant edge to bettors in the past.

NFL teams coming off a bye are 254-228 ATS (52.7%) since 2003. However, we see a massive difference between underdogs and favorites. Dogs are just 105-125 ATS (45.7%). However, favorites are an impressive 148-103 ATS (59%). Road favorites are even better, going 62-28 ATS (68.9%). This is likely due to the fact that the betting public overvalues home field advantage, providing road favorites an increased contrarian edge.

Why are favorites off a bye so profitable? Because the extra week off disproportionally benefits the “better” team. Not only do they have more time to rest and rehab injuries but the coaching staff has two weeks to game-plan for the next opponent.

Bye weeks start in Week 5 and run through Week 13. Here are the bye weeks for all 32 teams.

Week 5: Lions, Packers

Week 6: Raiders, Patriots, Saints, Seahawks

Week 7: Colts, Jaguars, Vikings, Titans

Week 8: Cardinals, Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Steelers, Redskins

Week 9: Bengals, Browns, Rams, Eagles

Week 10: Falcons, Cowboys, Chiefs, Chargers

Week 11: Bills, Bears, Dolphins, Giants, Jets, 49ers

Week 12: No bye teams

Week 13: Panthers, Bucs

After bye weeks, the next scheduling spot to look out for is Thursday Night Football. The short week provides another pronounced edge bettors should be aware of. Since 2003, Thursday Night favorites have gone 113-83 ATS (57.7%). Home favorites are even better (73-50 ATS, 59.3%). Just as the extra time off benefits the “better” team, so does the short week. With both teams on a quick turnaround, the team with better players and a superior coaching staff has the advantage, especially if they’re at home at don’t have to travel.

Here’s the complete list of Thursday Night games this season

Week 2: Bengals at Browns

Week 3: Dolphins at Jaguars

Week 4: Broncos at Jets

Week 5: Bucs at Bears

Week 6: Chiefs at Bills

Week 7: Giants at Eagles

Week 8: Falcons at Panthers

Week 9: Packers at 49ers

Week 10: Colts at Titans

Week 11: Cardinals at Seahawks

Week 13: Cowboys at Ravens

Week 14: Patriots at Rams

Week 15: Chargers at Raiders

Week 12 is Thanksgiving. The three games on Turkey Day include Texans at Lions (12:30 p.m. ET), Redskins at Cowboys (4:30 p.m. ET) and Ravens at Steelers (8:20 p.m. ET).

Historically, favorites have crushed it on Thanksgiving. Since 2003, they’ve gone 31-13 ATS (70.5%).

WATCH: Don Shula NFL’s Most Winning Coach !

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Coaches Fandom  winning watch shula coach  One of the best to ever do it. Class act coach and a true legend has passed . He will forever he missed by many:
1.”One thing I never want to be accused of is not working.”
2.”I don’t know any other way to lead but by example.”
3.”Success is not forever and failure isn’t fatal.”

Watch his Perfect Season Here!

Lazy Joe’s Secret to Picking NFL Winning Teams

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting  winning teams secret picking

Clueless?   Too much sex, drugs and rock-n-roll ? Picking the home team to win will give only about 54% accuracy.

 

However, you can:

simply pick the team that has scored the most points in the current season!  (If a tie, pick the home team.)

This “system” has exhibited 62.4% accuracy over the past ten seasons, beating many so-called experts. Typically, the best AI systems can  predict with about 68-69% accuracy by using hours of simulation, computation and artificial intelligence.

In 2015 top artificial intelligence systems only returned about 65.9% accuracy at best. In 2016 -present top systems returned 67%-69%.

 

 

 

 

The Quickest & Easiest Ways To Winning NFL BETTING

Using Multiple Sportbooks is a no-brainer for those who care about growing their bottom line. Always shop around for the best odds!


Boost Your FANTASY FOOTBALL STRATEGY With These Tips

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Fantasy Football Strategy Football Football games  winning strategy football fantasy

(from sporting news.com:)

Basics (If you’ve played for a few years, feel free to skip this section)

1. Knowledge is power. You HAVE to know your league’s settings. This is non-negotiable. Know what positions are required (2 QBs? 3 flex? No flex?), know how the scoring is broken down,  know if bonus points are awarded, etc. You can throw a wrench into your season from the very beginning by not understanding your league’s settings.

2. Do your research. You don’t need to know who has what assignment on an A-gap overload zone blitz (is that even a real thing?), but it’s important to know who the starting running back and receivers are for the Jaguars, who some of the backups are in Dallas and Philadelphia, and so on.

3. Personal touch. Make your own rankings. Yahoo!, ESPN, CBS, etc. are all going to have their own set of rankings, but yours may look a lot different — especially when you move beyond the top 30-40 or so. Your rankings will reflect your research and your strategy and will help you have an easier time during the draft.

4. Patience is a virtue. Don’t be the person who jumps on a kicker or defense a round or three too early. Not only will you announce yourself as fresh meat, but you could significantly lower your team’s ceiling.

5. Fantasy football “fitbit”. Everyone wants to get his and her steps these days. Use that same mentality in fantasy football. Be active on the wire, consume information, start players who are actually starting on game day. You’ll be surprised what simply being an active owner can do for you even if you had a lackluster draft.

Advanced

1. Pitch selection. One of the most basic things you’ll hear someone say regarding draft strategy is “get as much value as possible”. That’s certainly true, but “value” is such a fluid concept in a draft. At any point, the best value may be that boring, steady vet with the established ceiling and high floor. Sometimes it’s the flashy young player with high risk but an even higher ceiling. The key is knowing when to simply move the chains and when to toss the Hail Mary. Whatever you do, try to avoid “throwaway picks”. That’s not the official term, but you know it when you see it. “Oh, it’s the 12th round, Trent Richardson and his 3.3 yards per carry will come in handy at some point, right?” No! Even late in the draft, you want to avoid wasting picks on players that you know won’t give you anything. If you’re going to take a zero anyway, you might as well swing for the fences.

2. “Last man standing. In this day of specialization and committees, it can be difficult to sort through backfield pecking orders. It’s one thing if you know that Player A is going to handle early-down work and give way in passing situations or if Player B is a goal-line specialist, but how do you handle a situation like Cleveland or Dallas where multiple backs with similar skillsets are going to be battling for carries? Instead of guessing, just wait and pluck the second or third guy in the competition. Not only are you getting him at a cheaper price, but chances are solid that you’ll end up with the top option. You can also avoid these murky situations altogether, but it’s getting increasingly more difficult to build a team without dipping into these muddled competitions.

3. Stacking. While you shouldn’t necessarily set out to draft excess depth at a position or a number of players with the same bye, you shouldn’t be afraid to build on it if that’s how your draft has unfolded. Quality depth is never a bad thing, and you can usually trade from a surplus. As far as byes are concerned, I’ll reiterate that you shouldn’t go out of your way to have all of your players on one bye week, but sacrificing one automatic loss in exchange for a higher chance at a win in several other weeks isn’t an awful trade.


PODCAST: Coach Todd Bowles Explains How the Jets are Winning

 

Emmy-winning Sports Personality and Host Katie Nolan Now at Espn

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Fandom  winning sports nolan katie
ESPN announced today that it has hired Emmy-winning sports personality Katie Nolan. Nolan joins ESPN on October 16 and will appear across multiple platforms in a variety of projects.

Source: http://espnmediazone.com/us/press-releases/2017/10/espn-hires-emmy-winning-sports-personality-host-katie-nolan/

2017 NFL Football Futures Odds For Winning Super Bowl LII!

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Sports Betting  winning super futures football  Right after the New England Patriots were crowned once more as the Super Bowl champions, oddsmakers were busy at work determining the futures odds for winning Super Bowl LII. Of course, you can probably guess at which teams are the early favorites without too much trouble, but where do you place other teams? This year’s season hasn’t even started but already there are those making their NFL betting picks according to SkyBook a top online sportsbook.

 

While it’s too early to even take a wild guess at which teams can make it all the way to the Super Bowl, based on the odds it might not be too bad of an idea of laying down some money right now while the odds may be soft. In case you’re wondering here are Super Bowl LII odds as they stand right now:

 

ODDS TO WIN SUPERBOWL LII – ALL IN       

 

ARIZONA CARDINALS  +2800

ATLANTA FALCONS       +1000

BALTIMORE RAVENS   +3500

BUFFALO BILLS              +8000

CAROLINA PANTHERS +2500

CINCINNATI BENGALS +4000

CLEVELAND BROWNS  +20000

DALLAS COWBOYS         +900

DENVER BRONCOS         +1400

DETROIT LIONS                +3500

GREEN BAY PACKERS    +1000

HOUSTON TEXANS          +1600

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS   +2800

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +8000

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS          +2000

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +5000

LOS ANGELES RAMS             +12000

MIAMI DOLPHINS                 +4500

MINNESOTA VIKINGS         +2800

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +250

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +3500

NEW YORK GIANTS  +1800

NEW YORK JETS       +20000

OAKLAND RAIDERS +1000

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES  +4000

PITTSBURGH STEELERS  +1200

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS    +15000

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS        +1000

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS   +3000

TENNESSEE TITANS                +5000

WASHINGTON REDSKINS    +5000

 

See anything you like? At +3500 (a $100 bet bags you $3.500 bucks if the team wins), perhaps you  like the New Orleans Saints. Ditto goes for the Kansas City Chiefs. Of course, you could go for the long shot and place a bet on the the New York Jets at +20000 or perhaps the San Francisco 49ers at +15000. But maybe you think the Patriots will make it once more, in which case you’d only see $250 for your $100.

 

Then again, it’s not over till the fat lady sings and every team has a shot at being this year’s champs, so might as well get your bets in early before the odds change !