Unravel the Thrills of NFL Point Spreads: A Comprehensive Betting Guide


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Get ready to dive into the exhilarating world of NFL point spreads! In this comprehensive guide, we’ll break down everything you need to know about this popular betting method, from understanding how they work to making informed wagers. With our expert insights and thrilling statistics, you’ll be ready to ride the wave of excitement and make the most of your NFL betting experience.

Understanding the Intricacies of NFL Point Spreads
At the heart of NFL point spreads lies the concept of “evening the playing field.” Oddsmakers create spreads to balance the betting action between the favorite and the underdog. By adding or subtracting points from a team’s final score, they make both sides of a wager more attractive to bettors.

 

For instance, imagine a game where Team A is favored to win by 7 points against Team B. The spread would be displayed as Team A -7 and Team B +7. In this scenario, Team A must win by more than 7 points for its backers to win the bet, while Team B bettors win if their team loses by less than 7 points or wins outright.

Unearthing the Power of Statistics
An essential aspect of mastering NFL point spreads is understanding the importance of statistics. Historical data, such as past performance against the spread (ATS), can provide valuable insights into a team’s potential to cover the point spread.

For instance, a team with a 60% ATS record is considered a strong bet against the spread, while one with a 40% ATS record may be a risky wager. Keep in mind that trends can change, and relying solely on historical data isn’t foolproof. However, when combined with other factors like injuries, weather conditions, and team dynamics, these statistics can be a powerful tool.

 Betting Guide for NFL Point Spreads (steps)

Now that you have a solid grasp of the fundamentals, let’s walk you through the process of placing a wager on NFL point spreads:

Research: Begin by gathering as much information as possible about the teams involved. Examine their ATS records, head-to-head matchups, and any relevant situational factors.

Shop Around: Different sportsbooks may offer slightly different NFL point spread odds. Take the time to compare and find the best value for your bet.

Understand the Vigorish: Also known as the “juice” or “vig,” this is the fee sportsbooks charge for taking your bet. Typically, you’ll need to risk $110 to win $100 on a point spread bet. Factor this into your wagering strategy.

Place Your Bet: Once you’ve completed your research and found the best spread, confidently place your wager. Remember, there’s always an element of luck involved, so bet responsibly.

Monitor Your Progress: Keep track of your bets and analyze your results. Identify patterns and refine your strategy to improve your chances of success in the future.

Embrace the Rush of NFL Point Spread Betting
There’s no denying the thrill of NFL point spread betting. It adds an extra layer of excitement to every game, transforming even the most lopsided matchups into nail-biting contests. With this comprehensive guide in hand, you’re now equipped with the knowledge and tools to make the most of your NFL betting experience.

Remember, the key to success is a combination of research, disciplined bankroll management, and a dash of luck. So, embrace the rush, and get ready to experience the electrifying world of NFL point spreads!

 

Understanding DFS Point Scoring

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Daily fantasy sports are much more action-packed than traditional fantasy sports. It happens across a much shorter timeframe too, but this can confuse how DFS games are scored. The Internet has created massive communities oriented around every sport and the fantasy playoffs in them. 

We’re focusing on fantasy football scoring here, the most popular form of fantasy sports that is played in America. You can see NFL daily fantasy sports in action online. Here we have information on how those fantasy games are commonly scored, along with pertinent definitions that beginners will want to know.

 

DFS Point Scoring

Here’s a rundown of how different events in a game are scored under generalized DFS rules. Remember that the specific rules may change depending on who you’re using to manage your fantasy sports games.

Rushing yards made = 0.1 points 0 points allowed = 10 points
Rushing touchdowns = 6 points 1-6 points allowed = 7 points
Passing yards made = 0.04 points 7-13 points allowed = 4 points
Passing touchdowns = 4 points 14-20 points allowed = 1 point
Receiving yards = 0.1 points 21-27 points allowed = 0 points
Receiving touchdowns = 6 points 28-34 points allowed = -1 point
Return touchdowns = 6 points 35+ points allowed = -4 points
Safeties = 2 points Field goals from 0-39 yards = 3 points
Sacks = 1 point Field goals from 40-49 yards = 4 points
Interceptions = -1 point Field goals from 50+ yards = 5 points
Interceptions made = 2 points
Receptions = 0.5 points
Blocked punt/kick = 2 points
Fumbles lost = -2 points
Fumbles recovered after touchdowns = 6 points
Opponent fumbles recovered = 2 points
Kickoff return touchdowns = 6 points
Punt return touchdowns = 6 points
Two-point conversion passes = 2 points
Two-point conversions scored = 2 points
Extra-point conversions = 1 point
Extra point return = 2 points

 

Important Definitions

To properly understand daily fantasy sports, you should know some important definitions that enable you to figure out what’s going on. Here are several:

$/Point: The salary of players, divided by how many fantasy points they score.

50/50: Where half the field is paid evenly, usually double the entrance fee.

Algorithm/Model/Projection: Terms for the equations used to calculate players’ statistical performances in a game.

Balance: A lineup that’s filled with mid-price range players.

Bankroll: The money you use when betting or playing fantasy sports.

Ceiling: The max points expected from a player based on past performances.

Chalk: A player/team/game expected to be popular with the crowd.

Dart Throw: A longshot play that relies on a player reaching a higher target score. 

Double-Up: Contests where your entry fee is doubled if you’re in the top 50%.

Fish: A new (and inexperienced) DFS player.

Field Size: The number of people in a contest.

Floor: Opposite of ceiling, the lowest points expected from a player based on past performances.

Guaranteed Prize Pool: Tournaments with a guaranteed minimum prize pool.

High Stakes: Contests with a higher entry fee, typically $50.

Head-To-Head: A contest between two DFS players, one on one.

Late Swap: When you can switch players in and out after the first game has begun.

Lean: A preference towards one position over others, e.g., you lean X player over Y player.

Min Salary: The minimum amount a player costs on the site.

Mass Multi-Entry: A.K.An MME, where DFS players enter lineups into a contest until they hit the maximum limit.

Multi-Entry: Where one enters more than one lineup into a contest.

Overlay: When a tournament pays out more money than they receive.

Pay Up: To choose high-price players instead of mid or lower ones.

Player Prop Bet: Oddsmaker lines that focus on one player and their performance.

Punt: Lower-priced players that could be successful but are also disposable.

Quintuple Up: Where the contest payout is five times the entry fee.

Reach: A chosen player/play expected to make an unexpectedly good performance.

ROI: Return On Investment, how much money you make on your initial investment.

Sharks: Experienced DFS players who know what they’re doing.

Single-Entry: Contests with one entry limit.

Sleeper: Players being overlooked who could make a good play.

Stacking: Choosing multiple players from the same teams/games.

Tilt: Disappointment/frustration felt by bettors and DFS players whose positions don’t pay off.

Tournament: Competition between many players. In DFS, tournaments don’t usually have tiers like they traditionally do.

Train: When a DFS player enters the same lineup multiple times into multi-entry games.

Triple-Up: Tournaments that payout three times the entry fee to each winner, similar to double-ups and quintuple-ups.

Upside: The expectation that a player will exceed the projections given by oddsmakers/DFS hosts.

Value: Players that should be priced higher than they are due to certain opportunities.

Viable: When a player has a reasonable expectation of reaching their target score.

 

The Amazing NFL Point Differential Betting System

2024-25 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings style point differential color betting amazing 011369 If you are looking for some ideas in building an NFL prediction model
this is a great article to get you going. Unlike many systems, it takes the strength of each team’s opponents into account:

https://www.liveabout.com/nfl-point-differential-betting-system-3116692

WATCH: The Best and Worst 2-point Attempts of the 2020 NFL Season

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2015 Super Bowl Point Spread : Early Movement (archival article)

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The point spread for Super Bowl XLIX moved 3.5 points at MGM Resorts on Sunday night, as the Patriots pulled away from the Colts to secure the AFC title.

The Las Vegas sports book operator, along with many others in town, opened the Seahawks as 2.5-point favorites during the third quarter of New England’s 45-7 victory. By the late fourth quarter, the Pats were the 1-point favorite.

“We opened (Seattle) -2.5, but I knew it was the wrong side, and I just kept dropping it down little by little even though we didn’t get much action on it,” Jay Rood, MGM Resorts VP of race and sports, told The Linemakers’ Micah Roberts. “The more I was thinking about it, the more I thought New England should be favored, and the bulk of the action we took on it — about $10,000 — has been on the Patriots -1.”

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Seattle -2.5, but the shop was dealing the game at a pick ‘em less than a half-hour later, according to assistant manager Jeff Sherman’s Twitter feed.

William Hill U.S. moved to a pick ‘em on Sunday night as well, director of trading Nick Bogdanovich told The Linemakers on Sporting News in a text message. The shop was offering an advanced line of Seattle -3 vs. New England last week.

Super Bowl XLIX is set for Sunday, Feb. 1 in Glendale, Ariz.

That the spread moved immediately in New England’s direction is not a surprise. Early line moves are typically prompted by money from professional bettors. But with Vegas books packed with public bettors for Championship Sunday, the cumulative smaller wagers have a greater impact. Public bettors, of course, tend to base their wagers on what they most-recently witnessed — and that was the Pats blowing out the Colts and the Seahawks coming away with a very fortunate win over the Packers.

“The books want to get to the right number as quickly as they can,” said The Linemakers’ Roberts. “This will be the biggest bet game of the year, where the public has more influence on the number than the wise guys. In most cases with the public, they go by what they saw last, and in this case, it was Seattle struggling at home and committing five turnovers and the Patriots rolling to a blowout win. I think the public will side with the Patriots early on.”

Early wagering on last year’s Super Bowl was similar, as Seattle opened as a short favorite but Denver was bet to a favorite within a few hours on Championship Sunday.

Said Tony Miller at the Golden Nugget, “We haven’t taken any big action on the game yet, just a bunch of guys putting some small parlays on it before they head out of town.”

Miller said he believes Seattle -3 is the proper number, but he adjusted to what he saw in the market.

“With -2s being out there and -1.5 at the Mirage, I opened -2.5 just to be at the highest number, but the (odds) screen is jumping right now,” Miller said. “I’m looking at a few books down to -1 right now, so I’m moving to -2 and I’ll still be high.”

Five minutes later, Miller took a bet large enough (not a limit wager) to drop even further, to -1, to put him in line with most of the other books around town. But the number would continue to drop, and pick ‘em was the consensus line by the time the AFC game ended.

The total opened between 48.5 and 49.5.

On sale: The Wynn is enticing bettors in Vegas with a special offer of -105 vigorish on side bets, exec VP for Race & Sports John Avello told The Linemakers on Sporting News in a text on Sunday night. Gamblers usually have to lay -110.

High bar: Nevada sports books handled a record $119.4 million in wagers on last year’s Super Bowl, which shattered the previous mark of $98.9 set the previous year. They also won $19.6 million, another record.


How’s that 2-point Conversion Thing Coming Along?

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