Colin Cowherd’s NFL Top 10 after Week 13.

The ff-winners.com AI power rankings Top 10 overlaps with (only? ) 7 of Colin’s.


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Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 Game Picks for Week 11

We like Colin Cowherd as an annoying but smart NFL analyst. Our AI system agrees with him on 3 of his 5 picks this week.


Why Smart Bettors are Flocking to the Buffalo Bills for 2015-6 (archival article)

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Archival Sports Betting Team News  week 2 computer week 15 smart flocking buffalo bills bettors

 

 

How many games will the Buffalo Bills win this year? Sportsbooks have set the betting line at 8.5.  Surprisingly, our Artificial Intelligence computer Beardog has the Bills ranked 5th behind New England, Seattle, Dallas and Green Bay due to its strong defense.

 

Buffalo has a new coach in Rex Ryan whose unusual formations, blitzes and overall defensive expertise should further strengthen the defense. We project the defensive line to have about 62 sacks this season. Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus and Jerry Hughes are as deadly a unit as any in the NFL. They forced 6 fumbles last year.Last year Buffalo was fourth in yards and points given up. There is absolutely no reason that prowess shouldn’t continue this season.

 

If Tom Brady’s suspension is upheld the Bills and their awesome defense will face a green Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 2. Ralph Wilson Stadium is one of the most difficult stadiums for opposing teams to play in due to the rowdy fans and bitter weather.Most of the Bills strong opponents in the next season will be played at home.

 

Hopefully Rex Ryan is smart enough to not play E.J. Manuel. With Manuel on the bench, Tyrod Taylor or Kyle Orton will be in, thus their quarterback problems should dissipate especially if Taylor plays the first game. But in any event Sammy Watkins is a highly talented receiver who we project to have 70 catches and 1000 yards in 2015.

 

Finally, the running back by committee should keep the backfield healthy for what looks like a productive season. LeSean McCoy, recently acquired from the Philadelphia Eagles, is expected to have  recovered  from a hamstring pull and will be supported by capable veteran Fred Jackson. In addition, the Bills also have Boobie Dixon as well as Karlos Williams the impressive rookie from Florida State. Look for Ryan to pound the ball on the ground, attack with his defense and roll easily to 9 victories or more!

 


WEEK 6 BETTING NOTES

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  week 15 notes betting  Today marks the 6th Sunday of the NFL season. Through five weeks of play, we’ve seen a distinct advantage for underdogs. Dogs have gone 46-32 ATS (59%) according to Bet Labs Sports. A $100 bettor taking each one would be up $1,075. Not too bad. Road dogs have been especially profitable, going 34-18 ATS (65.4%). Divisional dogs have gone 15-9 ATS (62.5%). 

With these trends in mind, let’s take a look at five games receiving heavy smart money on Sunday. 

9:30 a.m. ET: Carolina Panthers (3-2) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3)

Who’s ready for an early morning NFC South London sweat? The Panthers started the season 0-2 with Cam Newton, but have now gone a perfect 3-0 with backup Kyle Allen. The Bucs have been Jekyll and Hyde through five weeks, rotating losses and wins each time out. This game opened with the Bucs listed as short 1-point favorites. Despite receiving just a slight majority of bets, we’ve seen a huge line move to Carolina (+1 to -2.5). Sharps hit the Panthers everywhere from +1 to a pick’em to -1.5. One big advantage to Carolina: Favorites have gone 13-9 ATS in London (59%) since 2003 according. We’ve seen some smart money drop the total from 48.5 to 47.5. Tottenham Stadium is expecting 15 mph winds, an edge to the Under. 

1 p.m. ET: Houston Texans (3-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)

The Chiefs lost their first game of the season last week, falling to the Colts at home 19-13 as 10.5 favorites on Sunday Night Football. The public says Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City are a powerhouse and are due for a big bounce back win and cover at home. But sharps are buying low on the Texans to keep it close. Houston is playing well as of late, winning three of their last four including a 53-32 blowout over the Falcons last week. This line opened with KC listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Despite two thirds of bets backing the Chiefs, the line has fallen all the way to -4. This sharp reverse line movement was caused by pros loading up on the Texans plus the points. Since 2003, dogs receiving at least 2.5-points of reverse line movement have covered 55.7% of the time. Sharps also love this under. The total opened at 55.5 and the public is pounding the Over, yet it’s fallen to 54.5. 

1 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks (4-1) at Cleveland Browns (2-3)

This line has been all over the place. The Browns initially opened as 2.5-point home favorites. The public remembers Cleveland being embarrassed 31-3 by San Francisco on Monday night and wants nothing to do with them. This line opened with Cleveland listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Nearly seven-out-of-ten bets are backing Seattle. This lopsided support caused the line to move to Seattle -2.5. But then sharps hammered the Browns plus the points, causing the line to fall down to a pick’em. Essentially, sharps waited for heavy public betting to move the number bigly to Seattle so they could get extra points with the Browns at home. Teams coming off a 20-point loss or more have covered the next game 54.1% of the time since 2003. Pros have also targeting the under. The total opened at 47 and has been bet down to 46. The Dawg Pound is expecting 15 mph winds.

1 p.m. ET: New Orleans (4-1) at Jacksonville (2-3)

On paper this looks like an easy layup with New Orleans. After all, the Saints are 4-1 and have won three straight. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is 2-3 and just lost to Carolina 34-27. So why on Earth did the oddsmakers open this game as a pick’em? Public bettors are hammering the Saints. But despite New Orleans receiving two thirds of bets, the line has moved to Jacksonville -3. Why would the books continue to hand out additional points to public Saints backers when they’re already on New Orleans to begin with? Because pros have been getting down hard on the Jags, creating big liability for the house and forcing the books to move the number bigly in their favor. An added bonus to the Jags: Jerome Boger is the lead referee. Since 2003, home teams have 55% ATS (+12.96 units) with Boger as the lead official. Smart money has also hit the Under. The total has fallen from 44 to 42.5 since opening.

4:05 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers (4-0) at Los Angeles Rams (3-2)

This late afternoon NFC West showdown is the most popular and heavily bet game of the day. The Rams have lost two straight, including a 30-29 heartbreaker to the Seahawks last Thursday night. The public says Los Angeles is a great team and “due” for a big bounce back win and cover at home. But sharps aren’t buying the conventional wisdom. They’re backing the undefeated 49ers in a rare contrarian road dog spot. The Rams opened as a 4-point home favorite. Two thirds of bets are backing Los Angeles. This heavy betting pushed the line up to 4.5. That’s when you saw wiseguys get down hard on the 49ers, causing the line to fall all the way down to 3. Todd Gurley’s injury was also a factor in the line movement. The stud RB is out with a thigh contusion. The 49ers are contrarian in a heavily bet game and also a road divisional dog (10-5 ATS this season). Pros have also hit the over, pushing the total from 48.5 to 50.5. 

More sharp action

Dolphins +4.5 to +4 vs Redskins
Vikings -3 to -3.5 vs Eagles


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2015 Super Bowl Point Spread : Early Movement (archival article)

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Archival Gambling NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  week 15 super spread point movement ff-winners week 2 early

The point spread for Super Bowl XLIX moved 3.5 points at MGM Resorts on Sunday night, as the Patriots pulled away from the Colts to secure the AFC title.

The Las Vegas sports book operator, along with many others in town, opened the Seahawks as 2.5-point favorites during the third quarter of New England’s 45-7 victory. By the late fourth quarter, the Pats were the 1-point favorite.

“We opened (Seattle) -2.5, but I knew it was the wrong side, and I just kept dropping it down little by little even though we didn’t get much action on it,” Jay Rood, MGM Resorts VP of race and sports, told The Linemakers’ Micah Roberts. “The more I was thinking about it, the more I thought New England should be favored, and the bulk of the action we took on it — about $10,000 — has been on the Patriots -1.”

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Seattle -2.5, but the shop was dealing the game at a pick ‘em less than a half-hour later, according to assistant manager Jeff Sherman’s Twitter feed.

William Hill U.S. moved to a pick ‘em on Sunday night as well, director of trading Nick Bogdanovich told The Linemakers on Sporting News in a text message. The shop was offering an advanced line of Seattle -3 vs. New England last week.

Super Bowl XLIX is set for Sunday, Feb. 1 in Glendale, Ariz.

That the spread moved immediately in New England’s direction is not a surprise. Early line moves are typically prompted by money from professional bettors. But with Vegas books packed with public bettors for Championship Sunday, the cumulative smaller wagers have a greater impact. Public bettors, of course, tend to base their wagers on what they most-recently witnessed — and that was the Pats blowing out the Colts and the Seahawks coming away with a very fortunate win over the Packers.

“The books want to get to the right number as quickly as they can,” said The Linemakers’ Roberts. “This will be the biggest bet game of the year, where the public has more influence on the number than the wise guys. In most cases with the public, they go by what they saw last, and in this case, it was Seattle struggling at home and committing five turnovers and the Patriots rolling to a blowout win. I think the public will side with the Patriots early on.”

Early wagering on last year’s Super Bowl was similar, as Seattle opened as a short favorite but Denver was bet to a favorite within a few hours on Championship Sunday.

Said Tony Miller at the Golden Nugget, “We haven’t taken any big action on the game yet, just a bunch of guys putting some small parlays on it before they head out of town.”

Miller said he believes Seattle -3 is the proper number, but he adjusted to what he saw in the market.

“With -2s being out there and -1.5 at the Mirage, I opened -2.5 just to be at the highest number, but the (odds) screen is jumping right now,” Miller said. “I’m looking at a few books down to -1 right now, so I’m moving to -2 and I’ll still be high.”

Five minutes later, Miller took a bet large enough (not a limit wager) to drop even further, to -1, to put him in line with most of the other books around town. But the number would continue to drop, and pick ‘em was the consensus line by the time the AFC game ended.

The total opened between 48.5 and 49.5.

On sale: The Wynn is enticing bettors in Vegas with a special offer of -105 vigorish on side bets, exec VP for Race & Sports John Avello told The Linemakers on Sporting News in a text on Sunday night. Gamblers usually have to lay -110.

High bar: Nevada sports books handled a record $119.4 million in wagers on last year’s Super Bowl, which shattered the previous mark of $98.9 set the previous year. They also won $19.6 million, another record.


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WATCH: All NFL Touchdowns Scored in Week 10

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Highlights  week 15 watch touchdowns scored ff-winners week 2  “And He’s In the Endzone!!”

 

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PODCAST: NFL Opening Line Report for Week 10 Bettors

 

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NFL WEEK 9 Opening Line Report

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WATCH: Every TD Scored in NFL Week 6

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Could Todd Gurley Win 2017 MVP?

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Player News  week 15 gurley ff-winners week 2 could

After a 180-yard, four-touchdown performance against the Seahawks in Week 15, RB Todd Gurley has firmly entered the MVP conversation. 

Source: http://www.therams.com/news-and-events/article-1/Could-Todd-Gurley-be-Named-MVP/0434e9d5-70ba-412a-98f2-4562475e7145

Guru Reveals: 3 Fantasy Football Steals for 2015-6!

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Football Player News  week 15 steals reveals football fantasy

Locating a dream stud in the very early rounds of a draft is an obstacle for no one, however having the ability to divide the wheat from the chaff in the later rounds is a much-needed skill to set up a dream juggernaut.

These are three draft day bargains that are anticipated to go in rounds 10 or later on, as well as if they work out they might have a significant influence on any type of fantasy roster.

Danny Woodhead

Danny Woodhead’s 2014 campaign was stopped when he broke his ankle joint in Week 3, inevitably sidelining him for the rest of the period.

While his 2014 period was nothing except featureless, it’s difficult to write-off what he performed in 2013 when he left New England to join San Diego’s backfield.

During Woodhead’s very first period with the Chargers he finished with 1,034 complete backyards from skirmish, 8 overall touchdowns, and he apprehended 76 of his 86 targets. Only Matt Forte and Jamaal Charles finished the 2013 period with even more targets compared to Woodhead.

Woodhead has actually recovered from his injury as well as prepares to go back to his duty as the Chargers’ change-of-pace back. The enhancement of first-round pick Melvin Gordon isn’t a danger to Woodhead’s fantasy worth, viewing as Gordon will certainly be utilized as an early down back, while Woodhead will certainly be used for passing downs.

Woodhead may not be an every-down back, but he still has the possible to be an useful commodity to any sort of dream roster, especially in PPR layouts. For as economical as he will certainly begin draft day, the incentive much surpasses the threat for this prospective dream sleeper.

Jordan Cameron

Jordan Cameron was hindered with injuries in 2014, leaving many dream lovers disappointed and frustrated, but he now has a chance to recover his standing as one of the leading strict ends in the organization this forthcoming year.

During the offseason, Cameron left Cleveland’s inefficient run-first infraction for Miami, a team with the 12th-most pass efforts in the organization. Miami struggled in red-zone efficiency last period, finishing 21st in the NFL in red-zone touchdowns, which is a big reason why they went out and signed Jordan Cameron. The enhancement of Cameron provides quarterback Ryan Tannehill a large, athletic red-zone target, meanings a bunch of appearances inside the 20 for the 6′ 5″ strict end.

Cameron is two years eliminated from an outstanding 2013 season, where he had 80 catches for over 900 backyards, and took 7 touchdowns. More impressively, he did this with the likes of Jason Campbell, Brandon Weeden, as well as Brian Hoyer at quarterback. With a greater than qualified quarterback in Ryan Tannehill at the helm, Cameron has the chance to go back to his standing as a top-10 fantasy strict end.

Carson Palmer

Carson Palmer has had problem with injuries throughout his career, most recently tearing his left ACL for the 2nd time in 2014. It were reported that Palmer taken into consideration retirement after in 2014’s knee injury.

Palmer’s injury past history and interception troubles are issues that have him forecasted to go quite late in fantasy drafts, yet gambling on him in the final round could possibly pay massive returns.

Palmer has actually completely recovered from ACL surgical treatment and has actually looked wonderful in minicamp. Behind an upgraded offensive line as well as with another year of exposure to Bruce Arians’ infraction, Palmer is primaried to be a practical fantasy quarterback in 2015.

If you leave out the game he left early with his ACL injury, his numbers are among the dream elite. In the five games he played from start to complete, he averaged 18.8 dream issues each game in typical scoring.

There is obviously no guarantee that Palmer will certainly continue to be healthy for an entire 16 video game stretch, however if he does, it’s hard to argue that he will not be a top-10 fantasy quarterback. Make certain Palmer winds up on your roster if your method is to take a few late-round fliers at the quarterback placement.

With an even more compared to qualified quarterback in Ryan Tannehill at the helm, Cameron has the opportunity to return to his condition as a top-10 dream limited end.

Albeit short, Carson Palmer’s 2014 project was quite outstanding while he was on the industry. If you omit the video game he left early with his ACL injury, his numbers are amongst the dream elite. In the 5 video games he played from beginning to finish, he averaged 18.8 fantasy factors per game in common racking up. If you theorize those numbers over an entire 16 game period he would have finished with 300 factors, ranking 5th ideal in the organization.

2015-6 Super Bowl Odds Posted

Futures wagering on Super Bowl 50, set for Sunday, Feb. 7 in Santa Clara, Calif., is open in Las Vegas, and three of this season’s final four teams sit atop the odds board at the Westgate SuperBook.

The Seahawks (5-to-1 odds), Patriots (6-to-1) and Packers (7-to-1) open as the top three betting choices, while the Colts – this season’s other semifinalist – is tied for sixth at 16-to-1.

The Eagles, also at 16-to-1, have the shortest odds to win Super Bowl 50 of any team that missed this season’s playoffs.

The Broncos and Cowboys – both eliminated in the divisional round last weekend – open at 8-to-1 and 12-to-1, respectively.

The 49ers are 25-to-1 to win the Super Bowl in their home, Levi’s Stadium.

While it may seem early for odds to be posted on next season’s championship, bookmakers don’t worry too much about seismic shifts in balance due to the draft or free agency.  In the NBA, a move like LeBron James’ from Miami to Cleveland has a dramatic impact on futures prices .  Such a dynamic does not occur in the NFL.

“You’ll rarely find a rookie who will make a huge impact on the futures,” SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay told The Linemakers’ Micah Roberts. “Usually in the NFL, it takes multiple trades, multiple additions in the free-agent market to adjust the futures – but it will happen.”

ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL 50, SANTA CLARA, CALIF., FEB. 7, 2016
SEAHAWKS 5-1
PATRIOTS 6-1
PACKERS 7-1
BRONCOS 8-1
COWBOYS 12-1
EAGLES 16-1
COLTS 16-1
LIONS 25-1
SAINTS 25-1
RAMS 25-1
49ERS 25-1
CARDINALS 25-1
STEELERS 25-1
RAVENS 25-1
BENGALS 25-1
TEXANS 30-1
CHARGERS 30-1
CHIEFS 30-1
GIANTS 30-1
PANTHERS 30-1
FALCONS 30-1
DOLPHINS 30-1
BEARS 50-1
VIKINGS 50-1
BILLS 50-1
BROWNS 50-1
REDSKINS 100-1
JETS 100-1
BUCS 200-1
TITANS 300-1
JAGUARS 300-1
RAIDERS 300-12020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Sports Betting  week 15 super posted las vegas raider