11/23/20 Betting Preview: Rams at Bucs: SMACKDOWN!

8:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Football games Gambling NFL Forecasting Uncategorized  style smackdown preview color betting 013369  Bettors are in for a treat with this Monday Night Football showdown as it features two of the NFC’s top playoff contenders. The Rams (6-3 SU, 5-4) are coming off an impressive 23-16 win over the Seahawks, covering as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Bucs (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) rebounded from a 38-3 beatdown by the Saints in Week 9 with a resounding 46-23 win over the Panthers last week, easily covering as 6-point road favorites. The Rams are + 48 in point differential. The Bucs are + 70.

This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is split and doesn’t know who to take. On the one hand, they love getting points with a good team like the Rams. But they are also wary of betting against Tom Brady laying a short spread. Despite this even betting, we’ve seen the Bucs move from -3.5 to -4. Some shops are even hanging -4.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are split. So we know this adjustment toward Tampa Bay was caused by respected pro money backing the Bucs. Jerome Boger is the lead ref tonight, which also favors Tampa. Home teams are 56% ATS when Boger is the head official.

Despite the line move against them, the Rams fit a pair of profitable systems this season. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 38-24 ATS (61%) this season and primetime dogs are 21-12 ATS (64%).

We’ve also seen some wiseguy money hit the under, dropping the total from 48.5 to 48. Primetime unders are 21-12 (64%) this season. The Rams are a big under team (7-2) while the Bucs have been profitable to the over (6-4).

11/19/20 Betting Preview: Cards at Hawks: SMACKDOWN!

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  smackdown preview hawks cards betting  8:20 p.m. ET: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

This Thursday Night showdown features a pair of division rivals with identical records. However, they are trending in opposite directions. The Cardinals (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) are hot and have won four of their last five games. Last week, Arizona shocked Buffalo 32-20 on a last-second Hail Mary, although the Cardinals failed to cover as 3-point home favorites. Conversely, the Seahawks (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) started the season 5-0 but have struggled over the past month and gone ice cold, losing three of their last four games. Last week the Seahawks fell to the Rams 23-16, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. The Cardinals are + 56 in point differential. The Seahawks are + 24.

This line opened with Seattle listed anywhere between a 3.5-point home favorite and a 5.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to back. Average Joes like the idea of grabbing points with the streaking Cardinals but are also wary of a desperate Seahawks team due for a bounce back performance. However, despite this split ticket count we’ve seen a big move to the Cardinals, dropping this line down to the key number of 3.

Arizona matches several profitable betting systems this season: divisional dog (30-22, 58% ATS), primetime dog (20-11 ATS, 65% ATS) and short road dog + 6 or less (37-19 ATS, 66% ATS). Road divisional dogs with a line move in their favor are 14-7 ATS (67%) this season.

Pros are also looking at a higher scoring game. We’ve seen them hit the over and steam the total up from 56 to 57.5. The Seahawks have been one of the most profitable over teams this season (6-3). The Cardinals are 5-3-1 to the under. These teams met three weeks ago and the Cardinals won 37-34 in overtime, winning outright as a 3.5-point home dog.

NFL 2020 Week 10 – Betting Preview

BETTING PREVIEW: Thurs. Night 10/28/2020: Falcons at Panthers: Smackdown!

VSIN:

Both of these NFC South rivals are below .500 and desperate for a victory. It’s been a putrid season for the Falcons. Atlanta has already changed coaches and is coming off a heartbreaking 23-22 last-second loss to the Lions last week, losing straight up as 1-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Panthers are riding a two-game losing skid and just fell to the Saints 27-24, although they managed to keep it close and cover as 7-point road dogs. This Thursday Night showdown opened with Carolina listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public wants nothing to do with the listless Falcons and Average Joes are all over the Panthers at home. However, despite two-thirds of bets laying the points, we’ve seen this line fall from Carolina -3 to -2.5. Some books are even down to 2. This sharp reverse line movement signals clear wiseguy action on the Falcons, who are the unpopular play tonight but still see the line move in their favor. Atlanta has value as a contrarian dog in a heavily bet primetime game and a buy-low bad ATS team (ATL 2-5 ATS) against a good ATS team (CAR 4-3 ATS). Atlanta is also a divisional dog and short road dog + 6 or less (27-12, 69% ATS this season). Keep an eye on the weather here. We’re looking at 10-15 MPH winds, which would benefit the under. The total opened 51 and dropped to 49 before rising back to 51. Essentially all liability has been under, despite the public hammering the over.

WATCH: NFL Preview 10/04/2020: Patriots at Chiefs

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Football games Team News Uncategorized  watch style preview patriots color chiefs 013369  smackdown!!

                             This game can have enormous consequences on AFC playoff seeding and, ultimately the SuperBowl. FF-Winners AI thinks New England will keep it close. But betting against Patrick Mahomes seems reckless and risky…

09/24/20 PREVIEW: Jaguars versus Dolphins

This should be a very exciting game! These are two low-ranked teams that always play with maximum effort and will be fighting for the Florida Vote! FF-Winners AI has Jacksonville by 5 based on a poor road record and porous defense by the Dolphins.

FILM PREVIEW: 9/20/20: Patriots at Seahawks SMACKDOWN!

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Film Study Football games Quarterbacks Videos  style smackdown seahawks preview patriots color 013369  This is it: 2 Great Coaches, 2 Great Franchises and 2 Athletic Quarterbacks!

 

SMACKDOWN HERE!

SMACKDOWN and SALSA! Preview: Chiefs versus Chargers Tonite!

ENJOY!

Betting Preview: Smackdown Tonight! 8:20 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers (4-5) at Oakland Raiders (4-4)

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  tonight style preview color betting angeles 00008b  The Chargers are coming off their biggest win of the season, upsetting the mighty Packers 26-11 as 4-point home underdogs. Los Angeles has now won two straight after beating the Bears 17-16 as 3.5-point road dogs the week before. The Raiders are coming off a 31-24 win over the Lions, covering as 2.5-point favorites, which snapped a brief two-game losing streak. While their records are similar, these AFC West rivals have far different records against the spread (Chargers 3-5-1 ATS vs Raiders 5-3 ATS). However, the Chargers enjoy a +15 point differential while the Raiders sit at -34. Both teams average about the same in terms of points scored (Chargers 20.3 PPG vs Raiders 22.8 PPG). The difference is on defense where Los Angeles allows just 18.7 PPG compared to Oakland’s 27 PPG.

This Thursday Night showdown opened with Oakland listed as a short 2-point home favorite. Sharps immediately jumped on Los Angeles getting points. The public is also hammering the Chargers (more than two-thirds of bets), especially after their big win last week over Green Bay. This overload of both pro and Joe action has flipped the line to Chargers -1. Favorites have dominated Thursday Night Football historically. Since 2003, they have gone 110-78 ATS (58.5%) according to Bet Labs Sports. The Chargers have dominated this match up recently, going 4-1 straight up against Oakland in their last five meetings and 11-4 straight up in their last 15 on the road at Oakland.

The total opened at 47.5. Nearly two-thirds of bets are taking the over.This combination of heavy public and sharp action has pushed the line up to 49. If it rises any higher, we’ve likely to see some sharp under buyback. Prime time unders are 19-9 (68%) this year and divisional unders are 23-15 (61%). Unders are 7-2 in Chargers games but overs are 5-3 in Raiders games this season.


PODCAST: NFL WEEK 5 NFL Betting Preview

This program gives some pretty strong betting trends and angles. But which ones will continue?

2019 Thursday Nite Betting Preview: Eagles Versus Packers

8:20 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-0)

Tuley’s Take on Thursday Night Football . . .
After two Must-Not-See TV games the past two Thursday nights, we get a marquee NFL matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles visiting the Green Bay Packers (8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network).

It has lost some of its luster with the injury-plagued Eagles’ slow start (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS), but QB Carson Wentz wasn’t in a panic in his press conference the other day and I almost expected him to pull an Aaron Rodgers and tell fans to “R-E-L-A-X.” Despite their relative woes, Wentz and the offense is still averaging 25.3 points per game (the Packers only average 19.3) and their losses to the Falcons and Lions both could have been wins (though admittedly they were lucky to escape with a come-from-behind victory over the Redskins in the season-opener).

Still, I still have the Eagles rated as the better team and there’s definite value in getting more than a field goal.

Granted, the Packers are off to a great start (3-0 SU & ATS) and are a 4-point favorites as of Wednesday night after getting bet at high as -5.5 on Monday, but I’m ready to fade them as they’re not as good as their record indicates. I’m especially not buying the narrative that they have a dominant defense (allowing an NFL-best 11.7 points per game) as they benefited from catching the Bears before their offense got in sync and the Vikings would have scored more and beaten them if not for Kirk Cousins’ unforced errors.

While the best bet is on the Eagles +4, I also like Over 46 as both offenses should have success and this total is shaded a little low as Unders are 8-2 so far in NFL primetime games this season (and I’m willing to fade that trend as well).

The play: Eagles +4

 

Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers: Sunday, September 22, 1:25 PST

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Football games  sunday steelers september preview pittsburgh francisco 49ers  When two teams like Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers collide, there’s no doubt that fans all across the world get pumped up. But with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger still needing an elbow surgery, will Steelers prove to be a threat against San Francisco 49ers? Let’s find out. Mason Rudolph a 6’5’’, 235 pounder is going to make it to the squad, facing the San Francisco 49ers for the first time in Levi’s stadium. In his last game against the Seattle, he completed 12 passes out of 19 which is not that bad whereas, he had two touchdowns.

The Stage is Set

San Francisco 49ers are considered as a stronger side here because, they actually have an impeccable defense line-up. But, Situations backfire all the time in sports and overconfidence could drown the 49ers against the Steelers. Looking at the present scenario, this face-off could go either way. Where, The Steelers have yet to win and the undefeated 2-0 49ers have yet to lose in this season. They have the opportunity to make it 3-0 after a long wait of 21 years. So, the will to push to the limits is going to be seen in both the teams. To get a clear picture of 49ers vs Steelers, let’s look into the reasons why the former is going to be optimistic while the latter has to worry.  Bettors may like to place a wager on the game at one of the US sportsbooks.

 

Advantage to 49ers

No matter how idealistically you try to visualize the situation, one thing is for sure that 49ers are going to be the dominating side. Why so? One of the biggest reasons for San Francisco 49ers’ optimism is exclusion of Roethlisberger because of his season-ending surgery. He would have been such an influential factor in the game for Steelers but sports is cruel sometimes. Similarly, James Conner and Juju Smith-Schuster are not displaying their true potential. James being the victim of a painful knee injury while Smith, who only has an average of 5.5 catches along 81 yards in two games doesn’t look much of a threat to the 49ers. Even Pittsburgh Steeler’s linebacker Devin Bush is having a hard time with covering receivers as well as poor passing. His poor performance led to their defeat against Seattle. Who’s to say it won’t happen again against 49ers?

Positive Side for Pittsburgh Steelers

There are equally some reasons why 49ers should be a little concerned with their upcoming battle against the Steelers. A name that every Steelers’ fan is anxious to see on the field is Minkah Fitzpatrick who has just been drafted from Dolphins. Secondly, without Joe Staley on the side, it is going to be a challenge for the San Francisco 49ers to keep their defensive walls up for long. A true champion never loses hope. With that being said, it is tough to say who is going to come out on top. Will it be 49ers oozing confidence that marches them to victory or will Mason Rudolph be dictating the game in his own terms? We are excited to find out! 


PODCAST: Walter Sharp’s NFL Week 2 Preview!

This show teaches some of the basics of NFL handicapping that the average bettor has never
been educated on. You can learn a lot from Walter Sharp!

PODCAST: Week 2 Betting Preview or Fake News?

Seriously, would you trust these folks with your betting dollars?


PODCAST: 2018 Quantitative Analysis NFL Preview

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Uncategorized  quantitative preview podcast analysis  On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, Ed Feng is joined by Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game on VSIN. They have a wide ranging discussion that includes:​​​​​​​

 

  • Why Indianapolis might be sneaky good this season
  • The most interesting division in the NFL
  • How the Cleveland Browns might not suck in 2018
  • How the recent Supreme Court ruling will impact sports bettors
  • How he started his immensely popular Beating the Book podcast

 

 

They end with Gill’s movie recommendation, a choice that data backs up.

To listen on iTunes, click here:

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/gill-alexander-on-football-analytics-nfl-in-2018/id1173754914?i=1000417062426&mt=2

PREVIEW: Patriots versus Steelers Sunday December 17, 2017

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Team News Tom Brady  versus sunday steelers preview patriots december

For all intents and purposes, we all know that Sunday afternoon’s game between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers will determine which team will clinch the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs, and secure home field advantage throughout the postseason.

Interestingly enough, the Steelers enter this game as the underdog (the latest lines have the Patriots as three-point favorites in the football odds for Patriots game), despite the fact that Pittsburgh is not only riding an NFL-high eight-game winning streak and has the best record in the conference, but also has generally played a bit better in the friendly confines of Heinz Field, versus on the road (they’re 11-2 at home, compared to 11-3 on the road, since the start of 2016).

But then again, we’re talking about the Patriots. Even with the ugly loss against the Miami Dolphins last Sunday evening, New England is still the highest scoring team in the AFC (averaging 28.3 points per game), but also has the second-highest point scoring differential in the conference as well (+118). With the season-ending injury to Carson Wentz last Sunday, Tom Brady may have found himself in the proverbial driver’s seat for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player (MVP) award, which would move him into a tie with Jim Brown, Earl Campbell, and Kurt Warner as the only individuals to win the award three times over the course of their career.

New England’s famous modus operandi of attacking opponents is described as “making their opponents play left-handed.” In other words, they identify what the opposing team does best, devotes their top resources towards eliminating the opponent from relying on that, and forcing them to have to rely on “Plan B.”

But in terms of the Steelers, which “poison” is the Patriots comfortable with picking? Do they focus on stopping wide receiver Antonio Brown, who is in the midst of an MVP campaign of his own? Or do they worry about stopping running back Le’Veon Bell, who leads the NFL in both rushing yards and total yards from scrimmage?

That’s the challenge the Steelers present. Bell’s patience, vision, and ability to rip off chunks of yards time and time again is absolutely demoralizing to opposing defenders, and he could make life very miserable for a Patriots rushing defense that’s ranked 23rd in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game, and dead last in the league in average yards per carry allowed by opposing runners.

And then there’s Brown, who is not only on pace for his 5th consecutive season with at least 100 receptions, 1,200 yards receiving, and nine touchdowns, but has averaged almost 10 catches for over 130 yards and more than one touchdown over the last four games. Brown has easily distanced himself from all other peers at his position, and sits alone atop the “best wide receiver in the NFL” discussion.

Of course, it’s not like the Patriots’ defense will be the only unit with the totally unenviable task of stopping the opposing offense; the Steelers offense will spend all week answering the nearly-unanswerable question of “how do we slow down Brady?” Pittsburgh’s pass defense was already something of a question mark, and with the loss of speedy linebacker Ryan Shazier (to a very scary spine injury on December 4th), that could open up spots on the middle of the field, which Brady is lethally effective at exploiting.

Plain and simple: in this battle among the AFC’s top heavyweights, expect an old-fashioned shootout between two of the best offenses the conference – and the league in general – has to offer.

PREVIEW: Eagles at Hawks Sunday Night Showdown (2017-8)

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Sports Betting Team News  week 2 computer sunday showdown preview night hawks eagles
Between the Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks, who will square off in the nationally-televised game on Sunday evening, the narratives seemed pretty entrenched before the season started.
Given the betting odds for Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks game everyone wants a piece of the action. The ff-winners.com artificial intelligence computer projects Seattle to win 25-22.

One of these two teams was the presumed favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, thanks to a ferocious defense that could single-handedly wrest control of the game from whoever they played, and an MVP-caliber quarterback who could make up for the fact that the team really didn’t have any other stars on offense.

The other team was likely going to be right in the playoff mix themselves, but probably on the outside looking in around this time of year. There were a lot of interesting and talented pieces on defense to work with, and they had a promising do-it-all quarterback of their own, but they didn’t quite seem like they could compete with the very best that the conference had to offer.

Of course, back in September, everyone thought the Seahawks fit that first team description, and the Eagles fit that second team description. And yet, entering the first week of December of 2017, it’s actually the complete opposite.

In a conference that legitimately has as many as 10 teams who could realistically challenge for a playoff spot, the Philadelphia Eagles have been head-and-shoulders above the other nine teams – if not any other team in the NFL. The last time they lost a game, it was still technically summertime (September 17th). They’ve outscored teams by a league-leading 160 points, which is 37 more points than the team with the second-highest point differential. We’re barely clearing our Thanksgiving meals off the table, and yet the Eagles could very likely clinch a playoff spot already.

Meanwhile, if the playoffs started today, the Seahawks would snap a five-year playoff streak, as they’re currently behind the Atlanta Falcons in the playoff standings (both teams have a 7-4 record, but Atlanta has the head-to-head victory tiebreaker). The previously impenetrable Seattle defense has been decimated by injuries along the defensive line, but especially among the pillars of its vaunted “Legion of Boom” secondary; cornerback Richard Sherman and safety Kam Chancellor have both been placed on season-ending injured reserve.

But what really makes this game worth watching is the duel between the two quarterbacks playing in this game. We’re very likely looking at two of the three finalists for the 2017-2018 Most Valuable Player award.

Through 12 weeks this season, Carson Wentz of the Eagles leads the NFL in touchdown passes (28), and could become only the third quarterback in NFL history to lead the NFL in touchdown passes in his second year of the league; the other two guys who did so are in the Hall of Fame: Dan Marino and Kurt Warner.

Wilson gets overlooked because he’s seemingly not even the top quarterback in his own conference. But, he has the third most touchdown passes this year (23), is second in total touchdowns (passing + rushing) only behind Wentz, and averages 35 more passing yards per game than Wentz (275 to 240). You could easily make the argument that the Seahawks would be in much bigger trouble if they lost Wilson to a long-term injury, versus if the Eagles lost Wentz to a similar injury.

Regardless, Seattle is going to give Philadelphia everything they have on Sunday evening. The Eagles find themselves in a really tough spot, having to play the Seahawks in Seattle, knowing in the back of their mind that they’ll face the NFC West-leading Los Angeles Rams one week later. If the Eagles were going to lose again at some point in the regular season, early December looks like the time frame for that to happen.

Washington Versus Dallas: Thursday Night Preview

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Team News  washington versus thursday preview night dallas

FF-Winners.com AI Program has Dallas winning 24-23 based on a weak Washington defense. What do you think?

Game Preview: Arizona Cardinals versus Los Angeles Rams (London, Sunday, October 22, 2017)

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting Team News  versus sunday preview london cardinals arizona angeles

This Sunday, the Arizona Cardinals and the Los Angeles Rams travel to London for their game. NFL betting for the Cardinals vs Rams game  has the Rams as the 3.5 point favorite  with a total score of 47. However, FF-Winners AI-generated prediction (52-33 ATS this year) favors Arizona by 2 with a total of 44.

We’re now over one-third of the way through the 2017 NFL season, and the Los Angeles Rams are sitting atop the NFC West with a 4-2 record. Before the season started, if you had told any NFL fan that this is how the first six games of the season would go down in that division, they would have thought you had never watched football before.


Over the last three weeks, the Rams have been scoring an average of over 34 points per game, thanks to the innovative play designs of first year head coach Sean McVay, and the hard running of a rejuvenated Todd Gurley. This past Sunday, the Rams headed to Florida and picked up a very quality road win against a Jacksonville Jaguars team that has been one of the more fun stories in the NFL this season. The Rams put up 27 points on a team that was holding opponents to less than 17 points per game this year.
This Rams team looks like it’s legit. If they can get a defense that’s ranked 27th in the NFL in opposing yards per game to come together, this could be a fascinating team to watch down the stretch of the season.

After a big win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, the Arizona Cardinals seemingly got their season back on track, pulling back to a 3-3 record halfway through October. They’ll travel to London this week to take on the Rams, hoping they can snap the trend of playing poorly away from home; they’re 2-0 at home this year, and 1-3 on the road.

Expect the Cardinals to feature another heavy dose of the newly acquired Adrian Peterson, similar to what they offered Tampa Bay last week. Peterson went for 134 yards rushing and two touchdowns last week, looking reminiscent of the Peterson we remember from five years ago. This week, he — and the Cardinals — will face a Rams defense that’s 29th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game, while allowing an NFL-high eight touchdowns this season.

Ironically, while the spotlight was on Peterson after last Sunday’s performance, Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer also enjoyed his best performance since his MVP-caliber season in 2015, throwing for 283 yards and three touchdowns while completing 81.8% of his passes that day. He threw the ball in the direction of the guy who still might be the most reliable wide receiver in the NFL in Larry Fitzgerald, who caught 10 passes for 138 yards, and is currently 6th in the NFL in receiving yards.

It’ll be up to the Rams’ defense to keep the football away from the Arizona offense, and ensure that Peterson doesn’t slow down the game by keeping the Rams’ offense off the field. Arizona’s defense is still very talented, but the way McVay has been calling plays for the Rams, if there’s an opening somewhere, he’ll certainly find it and exploit it. The Cardinals also don’t play very well when they’re away from home, so Los Angeles has to do whatever it can to continue to make life uncomfortable for Arizona.

Game Preview: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday, October 15, 2017)

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting Team News  vikings sunday preview packers october minnesota green

Riding high after their huge victory against the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday, the Green Bay Packers are riding high as they enter brand-new U.S. Bank Stadium this Sunday, as 3.5-point favorites against the Minnesota Vikings according to NFL betting odds for Packers vs Vikings gameAnd that’s exactly why they could be in position for a big upset this weekend…

When we think of the Vikings, we first think of their defense, thanks to the organizational philosophy laid down by head coach Mike Zimmer. Minnesota enters Week 6 of the NFL season with the 11th-ranked defense in the NFL. They have star players at every level of the defense. Defensive end Everson Griffen is third in the NFL in sacks (six). Cornerback Xavier Rhodes has been one of the best in football this season. Outside linebacker Anthony Barr is a freakish athlete that does so many things for them.

But even with the in-and-out from Sam Bradford due to various injuries, this offense has been deceptively good as well. Minnesota actually averages more passing yards per game (357 — 5th most in the NFL) than Green Bay (336.6 — 11th most in the NFL). It’s even more disparate when you look at each team’s rushing attack: Minnesota averages 118.2 yards per game (#11 in the NFL) versus Green Bay’s 91.6 yards per game (22nd in the NFL). In place of promising rookie Dalvin Cook, who was lost to a season-ending injury to his ACL, Jerick McKinnon provided a spark to Minnesota’s offense, evidenced by his 146 total yards against the Chicago Bears on Monday night. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs is in the midst of a breakout season of his own, sitting in 5th place in the NFL with 395 receiving yards. And the Vikings are just as likely to spread the ball around to the rest of their offense, as they are to force-feed their stars. On Monday evening, quarterback Case Keenum — playing in place of the injured Bradford — threw 16 of his 21 passing attempts to his running backs and tight ends.

Of course, the great equalizer in this entire game — or any game Green Bay plays in — is Aaron Rodgers. At some point, it just feels like we’re going to run out of superlatives to describe his level of play. Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback of all time right now, but Rodgers is the best in the game as of today. His stats don’t tell the whole story (although his league-leading 13 touchdown passes certainly help), but the way he puts the Packers on his shoulders, week after week, is unlike anything we’re seeing in the league today (this side of New England, anyway).

Minnesota’s defense has held Rodgers to less than 220 passing yards in each of the last three games these two have played in Minnesota. Of course, the Packers are 2-1 in in those games, thanks to the balance provided by the Packers rushing attack.

Minnesota handled two very potent offense at home already: New Orleans in Week 1, and Tampa Bay in Week 3. They should be well aware of this, given that they play them twice a year, but if Green Bay is not careful, they could have their hands full.

But as of right now, Green Bay looks like they’re one of the two best teams in the NFC, alongside the Atlanta Falcons. While this game should be a really good matchup, the Vikings aren’t quite as dangerous as the Packers… or as Rodgers, anyway.

My Pick: Green Bay.