Betting Preview: Smackdown Tonight! 8:20 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers (4-5) at Oakland Raiders (4-4)

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  tonight style preview color betting angeles 00008b   The Chargers are coming off their biggest win of the season, upsetting the mighty Packers 26-11 as 4-point home underdogs. Los Angeles has now won two straight after beating the Bears 17-16 as 3.5-point road dogs the week before. The Raiders are coming off a 31-24 win over the Lions, covering as 2.5-point favorites, which snapped a brief two-game losing streak. While their records are similar, these AFC West rivals have far different records against the spread (Chargers 3-5-1 ATS vs Raiders 5-3 ATS). However, the Chargers enjoy a +15 point differential while the Raiders sit at -34. Both teams average about the same in terms of points scored (Chargers 20.3 PPG vs Raiders 22.8 PPG). The difference is on defense where Los Angeles allows just 18.7 PPG compared to Oakland’s 27 PPG.

This Thursday Night showdown opened with Oakland listed as a short 2-point home favorite. Sharps immediately jumped on Los Angeles getting points. The public is also hammering the Chargers (more than two-thirds of bets), especially after their big win last week over Green Bay. This overload of both pro and Joe action has flipped the line to Chargers -1. Favorites have dominated Thursday Night Football historically. Since 2003, they have gone 110-78 ATS (58.5%) according to Bet Labs Sports. The Chargers have dominated this match up recently, going 4-1 straight up against Oakland in their last five meetings and 11-4 straight up in their last 15 on the road at Oakland.

The total opened at 47.5. Nearly two-thirds of bets are taking the over.This combination of heavy public and sharp action has pushed the line up to 49. If it rises any higher, we’ve likely to see some sharp under buyback. Prime time unders are 19-9 (68%) this year and divisional unders are 23-15 (61%). Unders are 7-2 in Chargers games but overs are 5-3 in Raiders games this season.


PODCAST: NFL WEEK 5 NFL Betting Preview

This program gives some pretty strong betting trends and angles. But which ones will continue?

Thursday Nite Betting Preview: Eagles Versus Packers

8:20 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-0)

Tuley’s Take on Thursday Night Football . . .
After two Must-Not-See TV games the past two Thursday nights, we get a marquee NFL matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles visiting the Green Bay Packers (8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network).

It has lost some of its luster with the injury-plagued Eagles’ slow start (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS), but QB Carson Wentz wasn’t in a panic in his press conference the other day and I almost expected him to pull an Aaron Rodgers and tell fans to “R-E-L-A-X.” Despite their relative woes, Wentz and the offense is still averaging 25.3 points per game (the Packers only average 19.3) and their losses to the Falcons and Lions both could have been wins (though admittedly they were lucky to escape with a come-from-behind victory over the Redskins in the season-opener).

Still, I still have the Eagles rated as the better team and there’s definite value in getting more than a field goal.

Granted, the Packers are off to a great start (3-0 SU & ATS) and are a 4-point favorites as of Wednesday night after getting bet at high as -5.5 on Monday, but I’m ready to fade them as they’re not as good as their record indicates. I’m especially not buying the narrative that they have a dominant defense (allowing an NFL-best 11.7 points per game) as they benefited from catching the Bears before their offense got in sync and the Vikings would have scored more and beaten them if not for Kirk Cousins’ unforced errors.

While the best bet is on the Eagles +4, I also like Over 46 as both offenses should have success and this total is shaded a little low as Unders are 8-2 so far in NFL primetime games this season (and I’m willing to fade that trend as well).

The play: Eagles +4

Get Tuley’s Takes in this week’s Point Spread Weekly or on VSiN.com.


Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers: Sunday, September 22, 1:25 PST

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Football games  sunday steelers september preview pittsburgh francisco 49ers   When two teams like Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers collide, there’s no doubt that fans all across the world get pumped up. But with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger still needing an elbow surgery, will Steelers prove to be a threat against San Francisco 49ers? Let’s find out. Mason Rudolph a 6’5’’, 235 pounder is going to make it to the squad, facing the San Francisco 49ers for the first time in Levi’s stadium. In his last game against the Seattle, he completed 12 passes out of 19 which is not that bad whereas, he had two touchdowns.

The Stage is Set

San Francisco 49ers are considered as a stronger side here because, they actually have an impeccable defense line-up. But, Situations backfire all the time in sports and overconfidence could drown the 49ers against the Steelers. Looking at the present scenario, this face-off could go either way. Where, The Steelers have yet to win and the undefeated 2-0 49ers have yet to lose in this season. They have the opportunity to make it 3-0 after a long wait of 21 years. So, the will to push to the limits is going to be seen in both the teams. To get a clear picture of 49ers vs Steelers, let’s look into the reasons why the former is going to be optimistic while the latter has to worry.  Bettors may like to place a wager on the game at one of the US sportsbooks.

 

Advantage to 49ers

No matter how idealistically you try to visualize the situation, one thing is for sure that 49ers are going to be the dominating side. Why so? One of the biggest reasons for San Francisco 49ers’ optimism is exclusion of Roethlisberger because of his season-ending surgery. He would have been such an influential factor in the game for Steelers but sports is cruel sometimes. Similarly, James Conner and Juju Smith-Schuster are not displaying their true potential. James being the victim of a painful knee injury while Smith, who only has an average of 5.5 catches along 81 yards in two games doesn’t look much of a threat to the 49ers. Even Pittsburgh Steeler’s linebacker Devin Bush is having a hard time with covering receivers as well as poor passing. His poor performance led to their defeat against Seattle. Who’s to say it won’t happen again against 49ers?

Positive Side for Pittsburgh Steelers

There are equally some reasons why 49ers should be a little concerned with their upcoming battle against the Steelers. A name that every Steelers’ fan is anxious to see on the field is Minkah Fitzpatrick who has just been drafted from Dolphins. Secondly, without Joe Staley on the side, it is going to be a challenge for the San Francisco 49ers to keep their defensive walls up for long. A true champion never loses hope. With that being said, it is tough to say who is going to come out on top. Will it be 49ers oozing confidence that marches them to victory or will Mason Rudolph be dictating the game in his own terms? We are excited to find out! 


PODCAST: Walter Sharp’s NFL Week 2 Preview!

This show teaches some of the basics of NFL handicapping that the average bettor has never
been educated on. You can learn a lot from Walter Sharp!

PODCAST: Week 2 Betting Preview or Fake News?

Seriously, would you trust these folks with your betting dollars?


PODCAST: 2018 Quantitative Analysis NFL Preview

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Uncategorized  quantitative preview podcast analysis   On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, Ed Feng is joined by Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game on VSIN. They have a wide ranging discussion that includes:​​​​​​​

 

  • Why Indianapolis might be sneaky good this season
  • The most interesting division in the NFL
  • How the Cleveland Browns might not suck in 2018
  • How the recent Supreme Court ruling will impact sports bettors
  • How he started his immensely popular Beating the Book podcast

 

 

They end with Gill’s movie recommendation, a choice that data backs up.

To listen on iTunes, click here:

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/gill-alexander-on-football-analytics-nfl-in-2018/id1173754914?i=1000417062426&mt=2

PREVIEW: Patriots versus Steelers Sunday December 17

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Team News Tom Brady  versus sunday steelers preview patriots december

For all intents and purposes, we all know that Sunday afternoon’s game between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers will determine which team will clinch the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs, and secure home field advantage throughout the postseason.

Interestingly enough, the Steelers enter this game as the underdog (the latest lines have the Patriots as three-point favorites in the football odds for Patriots game), despite the fact that Pittsburgh is not only riding an NFL-high eight-game winning streak and has the best record in the conference, but also has generally played a bit better in the friendly confines of Heinz Field, versus on the road (they’re 11-2 at home, compared to 11-3 on the road, since the start of 2016).

But then again, we’re talking about the Patriots. Even with the ugly loss against the Miami Dolphins last Sunday evening, New England is still the highest scoring team in the AFC (averaging 28.3 points per game), but also has the second-highest point scoring differential in the conference as well (+118). With the season-ending injury to Carson Wentz last Sunday, Tom Brady may have found himself in the proverbial driver’s seat for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player (MVP) award, which would move him into a tie with Jim Brown, Earl Campbell, and Kurt Warner as the only individuals to win the award three times over the course of their career.

New England’s famous modus operandi of attacking opponents is described as “making their opponents play left-handed.” In other words, they identify what the opposing team does best, devotes their top resources towards eliminating the opponent from relying on that, and forcing them to have to rely on “Plan B.”

But in terms of the Steelers, which “poison” is the Patriots comfortable with picking? Do they focus on stopping wide receiver Antonio Brown, who is in the midst of an MVP campaign of his own? Or do they worry about stopping running back Le’Veon Bell, who leads the NFL in both rushing yards and total yards from scrimmage?

That’s the challenge the Steelers present. Bell’s patience, vision, and ability to rip off chunks of yards time and time again is absolutely demoralizing to opposing defenders, and he could make life very miserable for a Patriots rushing defense that’s ranked 23rd in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game, and dead last in the league in average yards per carry allowed by opposing runners.

And then there’s Brown, who is not only on pace for his 5th consecutive season with at least 100 receptions, 1,200 yards receiving, and nine touchdowns, but has averaged almost 10 catches for over 130 yards and more than one touchdown over the last four games. Brown has easily distanced himself from all other peers at his position, and sits alone atop the “best wide receiver in the NFL” discussion.

Of course, it’s not like the Patriots’ defense will be the only unit with the totally unenviable task of stopping the opposing offense; the Steelers offense will spend all week answering the nearly-unanswerable question of “how do we slow down Brady?” Pittsburgh’s pass defense was already something of a question mark, and with the loss of speedy linebacker Ryan Shazier (to a very scary spine injury on December 4th), that could open up spots on the middle of the field, which Brady is lethally effective at exploiting.

Plain and simple: in this battle among the AFC’s top heavyweights, expect an old-fashioned shootout between two of the best offenses the conference – and the league in general – has to offer.

PREVIEW: Eagles at Hawks Sunday Night Showdown

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Sports Betting Team News  week 2 computer sunday showdown preview night hawks eagles
Between the Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks, who will square off in the nationally-televised game on Sunday evening, the narratives seemed pretty entrenched before the season started.
Given the betting odds for Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks game everyone wants a piece of the action. The ff-winners.com artificial intelligence computer projects Seattle to win 25-22.

One of these two teams was the presumed favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, thanks to a ferocious defense that could single-handedly wrest control of the game from whoever they played, and an MVP-caliber quarterback who could make up for the fact that the team really didn’t have any other stars on offense.

The other team was likely going to be right in the playoff mix themselves, but probably on the outside looking in around this time of year. There were a lot of interesting and talented pieces on defense to work with, and they had a promising do-it-all quarterback of their own, but they didn’t quite seem like they could compete with the very best that the conference had to offer.

Of course, back in September, everyone thought the Seahawks fit that first team description, and the Eagles fit that second team description. And yet, entering the first week of December of 2017, it’s actually the complete opposite.

In a conference that legitimately has as many as 10 teams who could realistically challenge for a playoff spot, the Philadelphia Eagles have been head-and-shoulders above the other nine teams – if not any other team in the NFL. The last time they lost a game, it was still technically summertime (September 17th). They’ve outscored teams by a league-leading 160 points, which is 37 more points than the team with the second-highest point differential. We’re barely clearing our Thanksgiving meals off the table, and yet the Eagles could very likely clinch a playoff spot already.

Meanwhile, if the playoffs started today, the Seahawks would snap a five-year playoff streak, as they’re currently behind the Atlanta Falcons in the playoff standings (both teams have a 7-4 record, but Atlanta has the head-to-head victory tiebreaker). The previously impenetrable Seattle defense has been decimated by injuries along the defensive line, but especially among the pillars of its vaunted “Legion of Boom” secondary; cornerback Richard Sherman and safety Kam Chancellor have both been placed on season-ending injured reserve.

But what really makes this game worth watching is the duel between the two quarterbacks playing in this game. We’re very likely looking at two of the three finalists for the 2017-2018 Most Valuable Player award.

Through 12 weeks this season, Carson Wentz of the Eagles leads the NFL in touchdown passes (28), and could become only the third quarterback in NFL history to lead the NFL in touchdown passes in his second year of the league; the other two guys who did so are in the Hall of Fame: Dan Marino and Kurt Warner.

Wilson gets overlooked because he’s seemingly not even the top quarterback in his own conference. But, he has the third most touchdown passes this year (23), is second in total touchdowns (passing + rushing) only behind Wentz, and averages 35 more passing yards per game than Wentz (275 to 240). You could easily make the argument that the Seahawks would be in much bigger trouble if they lost Wilson to a long-term injury, versus if the Eagles lost Wentz to a similar injury.

Regardless, Seattle is going to give Philadelphia everything they have on Sunday evening. The Eagles find themselves in a really tough spot, having to play the Seahawks in Seattle, knowing in the back of their mind that they’ll face the NFC West-leading Los Angeles Rams one week later. If the Eagles were going to lose again at some point in the regular season, early December looks like the time frame for that to happen.

Washington Versus Dallas: Thursday Night Preview

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Team News  washington versus thursday preview night dallas

FF-Winners.com AI Program has Dallas winning 24-23 based on a weak Washington defense. What do you think?