Luck Retirement Shakes NFL Betting Markets

August 26, 2019 by

Market insights from Josh Appelbaum . . .
The dust has settled on Andrew Luck’s shocking retirement announcement from the NFL. The 29-year-old star quarterback unexpectedly called it quits over the weekend. Luck cited injuries and being “mentally worn down” as the main reasons he hung up the cleats. 

Colts’ fans aren’t the only ones who will miss Luck. Bettors will, too. 

Luck went 49-34 against the spread (59%), winning +12.52 units with a 14.6% return on investment (according to BetLabsSports.com). This means a $100 spread bettor made $1,252 riding every Luck start throughout his 7-year career. 

On the moneyline, Luck went 53-33 (61.6%), winning +21.13 units with a 24.6% ROI. This includes a 17-20 record (45.9%) but +15.65 units as a dog (42.3% ROI).

The fallout from Luck’s retirement has been swift. At Circa Sports, the Colts moved from -180 to make the playoffs to -210 to not make the playoffs. Indianapolis also plummeted from -120 to +350 to win their division, +700 to +2100 to win the AFC and +1500 to +4500 to win the Super Bowl.

Indy’s season win total was adjusted from 9.5 (over -115) to 8 (under -120). In other words, the Colts were expected to go 10-6 or better with Luck and now are likely to go 7-9 or worse with Jacoby Brissett. 

How much is Luck worth to the spread? After opening at +3.5 for Week 1 against the Chargers, the Colts are now +7.

Filed Under: Gambling, NFL Forecasting, Quarterbacks, Sports Betting Tagged With: , , ,

Do You Obey the Fundamental Law of NFL Betting?

July 29, 2019 by

There is no “inside info” when it concerns Pro football wagering as the info age has just made it impossible to keep information secret. Once we understand this fact we can consider only one main NFL wagering statistic above all others and that is the pointspread. The oddsmaker is going to base his NFL betting line on just how the public is going to bet. This can offer you valuable insight without doing other work! You can check out the Pro football betting line which side the oddsmaker wants to win. Often that will be the underdog considering that the oddsmaker understands the favorite is usually getting pounded with public money in NFL wagering. This is not always the situation, yet it occurs typically. You could look purely at the pointspread and base your bet on which party the oddsmaker wishes in NFL wagering. Specifically, this will be side of the bet that is drawing least money!

Most impulsive NFL bettors will take the favorite. The main herd of gamblers lose at NFL wagering due to the fact that they decline to think about the underdog at all!. That is a significant mistake. If you really want the best NFL tip it is to behave  like the oddsmaker. Typically the sportsbooks make easy cash with NFL betting so if you could determine what teams they would like to win and then wager those groups, you have a likelihood of gaining consistent  profits in Pro football wagering! Just watch which way the pointspread moves during the week and bet contrary to the movement!

 

 

 

 

Filed Under: Gambling, Sports Betting Tagged With: ,

4 Top Professional Horse Racing Tips

July 13, 2019 by

Racing on horseback feels great! Whether you are racing for money or to just pass time, it’s fun to compete with fellow riders. If you have never raced before, you might feel nervous, especially when you know other people will be monitoring your performance. In fact, the skills that are needed when racing are a bit different to those that are needed when walking the horse. For a start, you have to be prepared for the worst. Besides that, you must know how to control the horse. As a matter of fact, the control you will have over the horse will be determined by your sitting position. Here are some professional tips that can help you while racing on a horse back.

Wear the Right Outfits

Whether you will be racing on a course or an open field, it’s advisable you wear slim fit clothes. Loosely fitting clothes are actually a recipe for trouble. This is because they can get entangled on the horse or on the branch of a tree and cause to fall. You should also wear boots that cover your legs up to the knees. Such boots are ideal because they protect your legs from bruises and other injuries that might result from a fall. If you don’t have horse riding boots, you can just wear any closed shoes. However, the heel should be a low enough so that your feet can fit perfectly into the stirrups. Besides that, it’s advisable your wear a helmet before mounting on the horse. In fact, every coach that offers professional horse racing tips advises all jockeys to always wear their headgear. The helmet helps in protecting your head against severe injuries during an accident.

Sit Upright then Lean Forward

After mounting the horse, you should seat in an upright position while heading to the docks. This is because the horse will just be walking. Once the race has started, you should change your sitting position by leaning forward. The advantage of leaning forward is that it signals your horse that you want to move at a faster speed. In addition to that, it eases your body weight by shifting it forward. This enables the horse to run faster. Since you will be competing with other riders, it’s important you maintain this position all the way to the finish line. If you try to sit upright before the race is over, the horse will definitely slow down, giving your rivals an edge over you.

Focus on the Trail

If you have never competed before, you might easily get carried away by other things that are happening on the field. First there are fans that keep cheering because they have placed their bets and other riders. Whether they are betting on your horse or not, your primary concern should be your safety. You can’t ride safely when you keep looking at what’s happening around you. It’s advisable you keep your eyes on the trail because that’s when you will be able to avoid an accident. In fact, riding a horse is not much different from riding a car. Remember, your horse will go where you direct it.

Use the Reins to Control the Horse

The reins are normally reserved for controlling how the horse moves. However, most novice jockeys don’t know how to hold them the right way. Although the reins are usually long, they should be held at the level of your waist line. That way, you will not have to pull so hard when you want the horse to stop or make a turn. In fact, holding the reins high is a huge mistake. This is because your pulls will not have any impact on the horse. If you want to make a left turn, you should just pull the left reign and ease the pressure of your leg on the stirrups.

Filed Under: Gambling, Horce Racing, Horse Race Betting Tagged With: , ,

The NFL gets into gambling: what the exclusive casino sponsorship with Caesars will mean for football fans

July 2, 2019 by

After years of outright contempt for gambling, the National Football League has brokered a deal with Caesars Entertainment Corp., which will impact football fans and casino players alike. Caesars is currently the largest casino operator in the US and the fans have long been awaiting to see the NFL enter the gambling world.

From rejection to golden deals

Until recently, the NFL famously avoided to get involved with gambling and sports betting. The NFL claimed that gambling was one of the biggest threats it could face, and it was one of the most vocal opponents to sports betting and its effects on the game. But the NFL surprised everyone earlier this year when it announced that Caesars Entertainment would be its first-ever “official casino sponsor“. Insiders expect an arrangement of $30 million-per-year for the next three years.

Last year, the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act allowed states to legalize sports wagering. The ruling directly resulted in the NBA, NHL and MLB partnering up with MGM Resorts International, Caesars’ biggest competitor, and in the more recent deal between Caesars and the NFL.

What does this deal mean for me?

Although the exclusive deal has not mentioned sports gambling as such, it certainly represents exciting opportunities for football and gambling enthusiasts. As of now, Caesars can use NFL trademarks so that fans can expect to find NFL branded items in casinos near them. Fans might also be able to witness NFL exclusive events in selected casinos and hotels. For instance, Caesars Rewards members can rejoice at the possibility to experience the unique NFL Draft Party, taking place at the famous Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. For the few unlucky ones unable to fly out to Vegas straight away, do not despair, Casinorange.com got you covered! You can try your luck at some of the best online casino games until NFL events come to your favourite casino.

Hopefully, the recent merger between Caesars and Eldorado Resorts Inc. will increase the NFL offerings for fans. Although both companies failed to mention the NFL sponsorship during the official deal announcement, we can already speculate on how the newly largest casino company in the US will make most of this partnership for gambling fans who love football.

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PODCAST: 4 Surprisingly Profitable NFL Betting Angles

May 27, 2019 by

These “systems” may provide you some excellent  betting ideas this season.   They agree with the principal that “Parity” in the NFL can be exploited by astute bettors. Most of the public and sportswriters “overreact” to recent performance.  By definition, “recent performance” is only a small sample.  Even sadder is all the experts and pundits making bold predictions in the off season when NO football is even being played! If you do “Big Data” computer analysis, you will discover that there are many things about predicting the NFL which are systematic but not always intuitive.

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The 3 Main Reasons Most Amateur Sports Bettors Lose Money

January 31, 2019 by

Does the following scenario sound familiar?

“This guy Archie came into my book on the first week of September and bet about $1k on ten different NFL games. He ended up going 9-1, and turned his $10k into $18k. (n.b. we are ignoring vig for the sake of simple calculations) I knew he would be back though, and sure enough he was there the following week, betting $2k on nine different NFL games and totals. He got hot again, and went 7-2, and his $10k had now grown to $28k in just two weeks. I wasn’t worried though, because the story is always the same with these guys. In week three, he came in with 7 more ‘locks’ and put $4k on each game, only to go 1-6, losing three of the games in the last minute. Frustrated with his bad luck, he put all of his remaining $8k on the Monday Night Under, which busted when the Broncos scored a meaningless touchdown in the final minute. Three weeks after he started, Archie was broke.”

The 3 main reasons amateurs lose money:

          1.   They over bet.

         2.   They vary their bet size dramatically.

         3.    They fail to appreciate the amount of randomness in game outcomes and forecast accuracy.

                (the media contributes to this view by understating the luck factor).

For the correct mathematics:

 

CLICK HERE!

Filed Under: Financial and Small Business, Gambling, Sports Betting, Statistics Tagged With: , , , ,

What Does the Post-PASPA Gambling Landscape Hold for the United States?

December 21, 2018 by

In May of 2018, the US Supreme Court overturned the earlier PASPA ruling that had effectively outlawed any form of sports betting in the country. While there had been some notable exceptions, mostly in illegal form, it was clear that the United States was entering a new era,

As we head towards the end of the year, it’s a good opportunity to reflect on the decision and to assess the pros and cons of legal sports gambling across America.

Early Adopters

It’s fair to say that the PASPA ruling has led to a trickle of developments as opposed to a flood. When America got the go ahead on sports betting, some of the biggest names in the industry made an early move and we saw some gambling floors built in established Las Vegas casinos.

Betting operations also moved to the racetrack and some early sports sponsorship deals were struck between operators and clubs across America. A high profile merger also took place between a well known brand and a US Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) site so there were some early movements in the wake of the decision. To date, only a few states have adopted sports betting and the forecast for growth remains steady rather than spectacular.

A report in November 2018 claimed that in two years, the number of American states allowing sports betting would grow to 24 but is this a good move or are there concerns about the developing situation?

Building the Coffers

One of the clear benefits of introducing sports betting would be the additional revenue that each individual state stands to earn. Back in August of 2018, a report carried out by Oxford University suggested that the industry could provide a $14 billion boost to the US GDP on an annual basis and the performance of the gambling sector in other countries indicates that this is no wild claim.

Over in the UK, reports show that the gambling industry there brings in close to £14 billion annually so, in a country as vast and as populous as the United States, there must be scope to hit the $14 billion mark.

Keeping it Clean

Legalised betting will also help to bring the practise out of the underground and away from the world of criminal activities. The US has its own problems and in other countries where sports betting is outlawed, the criminals find a way to carry on regardless.

Elsewhere, the PASPA ruling has also opened the door for official sports sponsorship and some brands have been quick to adopt this. The NBA and NHL have been lining up betting partners while soccer side the Las Vegas Lights secured a high profile sponsor to bring much needed funds into the club.

The Potential Downsides

When the announcement from the US Supreme Court was made in May, there were some dissenting voices and that’s to be expected. Among the concerns was the issue of gambling addiction which can be evident in other countries while some sports governing bodies felt that legalised sports betting could usher in the spectre of match fixing.

A further concern may be brought to life as the situation develops: As individual states in the US choose to adopt sports betting, there is a school of thought suggesting that those that delay or refuse to allow the practise may see a rise in illegal activities.

There are some points to consider but on the whole, the outlook for sports betting in the United States is a positive one and it will be fascinating to see the situation develop through 2019 and beyond.

Filed Under: Gambling, Sports Betting Tagged With: , , , , ,

3 Tips You Must Know to Bet on the Right Horse

December 12, 2018 by

Horses were the primary mode of transportation in ancient times. People developed an art for identifying the most suitable horses for traveling across vast distances. This art included horse races to determine the endurance and speed of particular horses. Therefore, horse racing is an ancient sport and so is horse betting. Remember, breeders of particular horses would want their horses to win, making competition fierce. They would have their supporters place bets as well. In many cases, these breeders and supporters would bet against other breeders and supporters. That is how horse betting developed. In 2008, this industry was worth $115 billion. You may have participated in it as well. Sadly, some people bet on the wrong horse. Then they quit betting because they made huge losses on that horse. Here are 3 tips you must know to bet on the right horse!

Watch the Horse in the Paddock
A paddock refers to a small enclosure where people keep horses. In horse racing, a saddling paddock is a fenced area that holds the horses as the jockeys prepare them for the race. For example, the jockeys saddle their horses in this area or they parade them for the crowd. You can watch the horses as their riders prepare them for the track. Look for signs of strength or weakness in these horses. For example, sweat spots near the horse’s kidneys are an indication of illness. Jittery horses may also be wasting energy outside the track instead of saving it for the race. Select a horse that is alert and calm. Remember, nervous horses are unpredictable. They might go off track easily, refuse to race, or perform dismally in the race.

Check the History of the Jockey
Emotions cloud someone’s perspective when it comes to high stakes issues such as betting a substantial amount of money on a horse. For example, you might go for a horse that looks stunning as opposed to selecting a possible winner. Therefore, you have to check other factors aside from the physical characteristics of the horse. For example, did you know that the top 10 jockeys worldwide win 90% of the races in which they participate? Therefore, picking horses ridden by top jockeys is a sure way of winning bets in horse racing. These jockeys perform well as long as they ride healthy horses. For example, top jockeys win races while riding horses that rarely reach the top three spot when ridden by other jockeys

Check the History of the Horse
Most racetracks have four categories of races namely a maiden, claim, allowances, and stakes race. Check your horse’s category. When did it get to this category? For example, betting on it is unwise if the race organizers recently bumped it from a maiden level to a claim one. You need to check the person who trained the horse as well. Does this person have a history of training the best racing horses? Examine the owner of the horse as well. Does he have a history of taking care of his horses? Select a horse with a perfect mix of historical data. In other words, details such as its category, trainer, owner, and racing pedigree should be exceptional. Picking this kind of horse means that your odds at winning in online horse betting will be high.  Good luck!

Filed Under: Gambling, Horse Race Betting Tagged With: ,

PODCAST: What Every Bettor Must Know NOW About the Vegas Pointspread!

December 6, 2018 by

We think that you will find this video very informative. Among other things it
helps to explain why the FF-Winners power rankings and computer game picks are likely
to be consistent winning tools for years to come: they do not contain human bias , favoritism and they are not shortsighted. Moreover they adapt to evolving football strategy and performance. Enjoy! It is our pleasure to help you be successful.

Filed Under: Gambling, NFL Forecasting, Podcasts, Sports Betting Tagged With: , , , , ,

How Horse-Racing Betting was Cracked and Hacked!

October 28, 2018 by

Yes! Given the right data, computers can beat the public and the odds!

CLICK HERE!

Original Research Paper: CLICK HERE!

Filed Under: Artificial Intelligence, Gambling, Horce Racing, Horse Race Betting, Sports Betting Tagged With: , , , ,

PODCAST: Picking NFL 2018 Week 1 ATS with Human Intelligence

September 8, 2018 by

We think you will find this webcast rather fun and informative.

Filed Under: Gambling, NFL Forecasting, Podcasts, Sports Betting Tagged With: , , ,

5 NFL Teams to Look Out For in 2018

August 7, 2018 by

As we get closer to the start of the 2018 NFL season, there is enough information floating around that even people that are not actively watching or listening should have a pretty good idea of which teams are expected to be at the top of the NFL this season. But let’s look a little deeper and consider their implied probability via the odds in betDSI.

The first team that we should keep our eye on is the Cleveland Browns. Got you! No, the Browns won’t be a contender … and despite the public thinking that they will win six games this season, I believe they’ll be lucky to get three.

 New England Patriots

The New England Patriots are once again the favorites to win it all. They have one of the easier schedules in the league this year, and of course, Tom Brady is Tom Brady. He is at the top of the list to throw for the most passing yards and the most touchdowns in 2018. But that said, there have been quite a few personnel changes, and there are some questions that remain to be fully answered on the offensive line.

 Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are listed as the second most probable team to win the Super Bowl next winter. Their schedule strength is middling, and they have a unique situation where either of their top-two QBs can step in and win big games. They also have the fourth-best defense in the league, and with Michael Bennet and Haloti Ngata adding depth to the defensive line, the Eagles will be disruptive up front and tough to beat.

 Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings picked up Sheldon Richardson for a one-year deal and added Mike Hughes at corner. To put it bluntly, the Vikings defense is going to be scary this season. The Purple People Eaters are back and opposing offenses are going to have a rough day each Sunday that they have to face Minnesota. Depending on where you look, you can find the Vikings at the same price to win the Super Bowl as the Eagles, but they opened as the 4th favorite at +1400. The NFC North is brutal, and the Vikings are tied for the 8th toughest schedule this year. But, you know what they say, defense wins championships, and they are No. 1.

 Green Bay Packers

The Packers got a raw deal with the cheap-shot on Aaron Rodgers last year. So, you have to think that despite having the hardest schedule in the NFL, they are coming out with a chip on their shoulder. The Packers opened at +900 (9/1) to win the Super Bowl tied with the Eagles as the second most probable. I think their schedule is probably too difficult given the circumstances to make the Super Bowl. But if they can stay healthy, they’ll play spoiler to a lot of teams throughout the season.

 Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are the second only to the Pats in the AFC on the betting odds boards, and they are heavy favorites to win their division. Pittsburgh has a projected regular season wins total of 10.5 games, but even though they have cracked the lid on their season wins number year after year, they are underdogs to go past ten wins. The Steelers have one of the weaker schedules in 2018, and it should rank somewhere in the bottom two-thirds. Plus, they are only listed as underdogs against the spread on the early lines just once the entire season. And it’s only a 1-point spread that game comes against the Saints in NOLA. I see the Steelers pulling down 12 wins this year.

It’s the perfect storm for the Steelers in 2018. They have an easy schedule (if any schedule in the NFL could be considered ‘easy’) and this is most certainly Le’Veon Bell’s last season in Pittsburgh, so he has to keep his stock high. In addition to that, the entirety of the offensive line is returning, making it one of the most experienced and cohesive in the league. Big Ben should be well protected, and we could see a record year out of Bell. Pittsburg is also coming into the 2018 season with a top-5 defense. If anyone is going to unseat the Pats in the AFC, it’s Pitt.

 

Filed Under: Gambling, NFL Forecasting, Sports Betting Tagged With: ,