Introduction
Betting is all about chance. That said, there are mathematical approaches and numbers-based strategies that can tip the odds in your favor. They’re used by savvy and serious bettors who want to turn a profit consistently.
You’ll still be at the mercy of luck or circumstance but you can at least give yourself an edge when your money is on the line. Here you’ll find some common yet effective mathematical strategies for sports betting.
The House Sometimes Wins
When taking the numbers-based approach to sports betting, you need to first understand the underlying rule that makes betting profitable for casinos and sportsbooks – the house always wins. This means that the odds are slightly skewed so that, on a long enough timeframe, the establishment will always profit from the action.
Think of your wagers as being against the sportsbook, who want to earn as much cash as possible. The house always wins in the end but people often do beat them at their own game. That means the house sometimes wins and, if you do your homework, you can be one of those people who find profit in their wagers.
The House Edge
The house always wins because of the house edge, which is also called the vig or the juice in sports betting circles and is the primary way many bookmakers make back their money. The vig/juice is just the difference between the odds of the game and the odds that the bookmakers offer on wagers placed on that game.
A simple example that demonstrates this well is where two teams are evenly matched, so a 50/50 chance of winning. The bookmakers won’t offer the same odds. Instead, they’ll wait and see which team is the most popular with the betting crowd (typically the home-playing team for sports like baseball and football), and then they’ll slant the odds on that side so they pocket a small percentage of everybody’s winnings, often 4%-5% but it differs on the sports and the exact situation. The people who bet on that favorite team won’t win as much.
Yes, this means that the odds are literally stacked against you, but that’s how your favorite sportsbooks stay in business. To reiterate, the house edge guarantees profit over time, so your individual betting actions can still be profitable and take money away from the house.
Mathematical Betting Approaches
Fixed Profit Betting
This is a simple concept that demands you increase your net profit by a fixed amount with every consecutive bet. This is typically done by using the following equation:
Bet amount = Profit/(Odds – 1)
Or B = P/(O-1) for short.
As an example, let’s say you want to make $100 in profit and the given odds are 1.5.
That would be 100 divided by 1.4, so $71.4.
This method means that a bettor doesn’t lose too much of their bankroll in a short amount of time while constantly attempting to make profits, so it’s aggressive and defensive at the same time. You need to have a 3% to 5% yield on your bankroll for it to be sustainable.
Proportional Betting
Proportional betting (not to be confused with prop bets) is where a bettor decides on a fixed percentage to increase your bet after each win. This multiplies your winnings while keeping your loss rate at a minimum.
The Maria Staking Plan
This is a quite well-known staking plan named after a British woman who reported turning £3,000 to £100,000 on horse racing over just 300 days. It works by dividing potential bets into three groups depending on the odds given for any game.
The system was outlined as follows:
If the odds are lower than 3.5, you should bet 1% of your bankroll.
If the odds are between 3.5 to 7.4, place 0.6% of your bankroll.
If between 7.5 and 11, stake 0.4% of the bankroll.
If the odds are above 11, do not take the bet at all.
Then, once the day is over, recalculate using the increased bankroll. That means your percentage values stay the same but you wager more as you earn more, with an expected strike rate of 85% if you can mimic Maria’s success.
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Bettors are in for a treat with this Monday Night Football showdown as it features two of the NFC’s top playoff contenders. The Rams (6-3 SU, 5-4) are coming off an impressive 23-16 win over the Seahawks, covering as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Bucs (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) rebounded from a 38-3 beatdown by the Saints in Week 9 with a resounding 46-23 win over the Panthers last week, easily covering as 6-point road favorites. The Rams are + 48 in point differential. The Bucs are + 70.
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