ALWAYS ENTERTAINING! THEIR MAIN CONCERN IS EACH TEAM’S “PSYCHOLOGY”…..
2024-25 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings
Beating the NFL Pointspread with AI and ML
Simms and Florio Pick NFL 2023 Week 14: Smackdown!
December 7, 2023 by
11/23/20 Betting Preview: Rams at Bucs: SMACKDOWN!
November 23, 2020 by
8:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bettors are in for a treat with this Monday Night Football showdown as it features two of the NFC’s top playoff contenders. The Rams (6-3 SU, 5-4) are coming off an impressive 23-16 win over the Seahawks, covering as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Bucs (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) rebounded from a 38-3 beatdown by the Saints in Week 9 with a resounding 46-23 win over the Panthers last week, easily covering as 6-point road favorites. The Rams are + 48 in point differential. The Bucs are + 70.
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is split and doesn’t know who to take. On the one hand, they love getting points with a good team like the Rams. But they are also wary of betting against Tom Brady laying a short spread. Despite this even betting, we’ve seen the Bucs move from -3.5 to -4. Some shops are even hanging -4.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are split. So we know this adjustment toward Tampa Bay was caused by respected pro money backing the Bucs. Jerome Boger is the lead ref tonight, which also favors Tampa. Home teams are 56% ATS when Boger is the head official.
Despite the line move against them, the Rams fit a pair of profitable systems this season. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 38-24 ATS (61%) this season and primetime dogs are 21-12 ATS (64%).
We’ve also seen some wiseguy money hit the under, dropping the total from 48.5 to 48. Primetime unders are 21-12 (64%) this season. The Rams are a big under team (7-2) while the Bucs have been profitable to the over (6-4).
11/19/20 Betting Preview: Cards at Hawks: SMACKDOWN!
November 19, 2020 by
8:20 p.m. ET: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
This Thursday Night showdown features a pair of division rivals with identical records. However, they are trending in opposite directions. The Cardinals (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) are hot and have won four of their last five games. Last week, Arizona shocked Buffalo 32-20 on a last-second Hail Mary, although the Cardinals failed to cover as 3-point home favorites. Conversely, the Seahawks (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) started the season 5-0 but have struggled over the past month and gone ice cold, losing three of their last four games. Last week the Seahawks fell to the Rams 23-16, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. The Cardinals are + 56 in point differential. The Seahawks are + 24.
This line opened with Seattle listed anywhere between a 3.5-point home favorite and a 5.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to back. Average Joes like the idea of grabbing points with the streaking Cardinals but are also wary of a desperate Seahawks team due for a bounce back performance. However, despite this split ticket count we’ve seen a big move to the Cardinals, dropping this line down to the key number of 3.
Arizona matches several profitable betting systems this season: divisional dog (30-22, 58% ATS), primetime dog (20-11 ATS, 65% ATS) and short road dog + 6 or less (37-19 ATS, 66% ATS). Road divisional dogs with a line move in their favor are 14-7 ATS (67%) this season.
Pros are also looking at a higher scoring game. We’ve seen them hit the over and steam the total up from 56 to 57.5. The Seahawks have been one of the most profitable over teams this season (6-3). The Cardinals are 5-3-1 to the under. These teams met three weeks ago and the Cardinals won 37-34 in overtime, winning outright as a 3.5-point home dog.
FILM PREVIEW: 9/20/20: Patriots at Seahawks SMACKDOWN!
September 18, 2020 by
This is it: 2 Great Coaches, 2 Great Franchises and 2 Athletic Quarterbacks!WATCH: Jets Qualify for Superbowl – SMACKDOWN!
July 21, 2019 by
