Sports Betting

Week 13 NFL Betting: Watch the Money Flow

Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans

If the playoffs started today both of these teams would be in, with Tennessee the 3-seed and Cleveland the 5-seed. The Browns (8-3 SU, 4-7 ATS) have won three straight, most recently fending off the Jags 27-25 last week but failing to cover as 7.5-point road favorites. Similarly, the Titans (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) have won two straight and just crushed the Colts 45-26, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public is split and doesn’t know who to take. On the one hand, both teams are 8-3 so how can you not grab the Browns getting the points? But then again, the Titans have been rolling in recent weeks while Cleveland is barely eking out wins. However, despite this split ticket count, we’ve seen pros hammer the Titans, pushing Tennessee up from -4 to -5.5. Pros have also targeted the over, driving the total up from 52 to 54. Both teams are profitable to the over, with the Browns 6-5 and the Titans 8-2-1.

Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

Both of these NFC West rivals are jockeying for playoff positioning and looking to rebound from disappointing losses. The Rams (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) just fell to the 49ers 23-20, losing outright as 5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) have dropped two straight, most recently falling to the Patriots 20-17 and failing to cover as 1-point road favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. Wiseguys think this line is a bit low and have rushed to the window to lay the points with the Rams. This respected action has pushed Los Angeles from -1.5 to -2.5. Road teams with a line move in their favor are 55-45 ATS (55%) this season. If this line reaches 3, expect some buyback on the divisional dog Cardinals getting the key number. Sharps have also targeted this under, dropping the total from 49 to 48.5. Both of these teams are profitable to the under, with the Rams 8-3 and the Cardinals 7-3-1. Historically, late season divisional unders have been a smart bet.

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers

This non-division AFC showdown features one team fighting for their playoff life and the other totally out of it and looking to secure a high draft pick. The Patriots (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) kept their faint postseason hopes alive last week with a 20-17 win over the Cardinals, winning outright as a 1-point home dog. Meanwhile, the Chargers (3-8 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) just fell to the Bills 27-17, failing to cover as 4-point road dogs. Los Angeles is 1-4 in their last five games while the Patriots are 3-1 over their last four games. This line opened with the Chargers listed as 2.5-point home favorites. Pro bettors have pounced on the Patriots getting points, which has dropped the line all the way down to a pick’em. Road teams with a line move in their favor are 55-45 ATS (55%) this season. Wiseguys have also gotten down on the under as we’ve seen the total fall from 49 to 47. The Pats are 7-4 to the under this season while the Chargers are 7-4 to the over.

–Josh Applebaum (vsin)

 

 

 

Winn Jones

Winn Jones, FF-Winners machine learning and artificial intelligence expert , specializes in sports forecasting and advanced probability analysis. In addition to leading our research department, he is a professional financial index trader. He thanks you for visiting FF-Winners and sharing it with your friends and family!

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