Week 13 NFL Betting: Watch the Money Flow

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Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans

If the playoffs started today both of these teams would be in, with Tennessee the 3-seed and Cleveland the 5-seed. The Browns (8-3 SU, 4-7 ATS) have won three straight, most recently fending off the Jags 27-25 last week but failing to cover as 7.5-point road favorites. Similarly, the Titans (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) have won two straight and just crushed the Colts 45-26, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public is split and doesn’t know who to take. On the one hand, both teams are 8-3 so how can you not grab the Browns getting the points? But then again, the Titans have been rolling in recent weeks while Cleveland is barely eking out wins. However, despite this split ticket count, we’ve seen pros hammer the Titans, pushing Tennessee up from -4 to -5.5. Pros have also targeted the over, driving the total up from 52 to 54. Both teams are profitable to the over, with the Browns 6-5 and the Titans 8-2-1.

Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

Both of these NFC West rivals are jockeying for playoff positioning and looking to rebound from disappointing losses. The Rams (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) just fell to the 49ers 23-20, losing outright as 5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) have dropped two straight, most recently falling to the Patriots 20-17 and failing to cover as 1-point road favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. Wiseguys think this line is a bit low and have rushed to the window to lay the points with the Rams. This respected action has pushed Los Angeles from -1.5 to -2.5. Road teams with a line move in their favor are 55-45 ATS (55%) this season. If this line reaches 3, expect some buyback on the divisional dog Cardinals getting the key number. Sharps have also targeted this under, dropping the total from 49 to 48.5. Both of these teams are profitable to the under, with the Rams 8-3 and the Cardinals 7-3-1. Historically, late season divisional unders have been a smart bet.

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers

This non-division AFC showdown features one team fighting for their playoff life and the other totally out of it and looking to secure a high draft pick. The Patriots (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) kept their faint postseason hopes alive last week with a 20-17 win over the Cardinals, winning outright as a 1-point home dog. Meanwhile, the Chargers (3-8 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) just fell to the Bills 27-17, failing to cover as 4-point road dogs. Los Angeles is 1-4 in their last five games while the Patriots are 3-1 over their last four games. This line opened with the Chargers listed as 2.5-point home favorites. Pro bettors have pounced on the Patriots getting points, which has dropped the line all the way down to a pick’em. Road teams with a line move in their favor are 55-45 ATS (55%) this season. Wiseguys have also gotten down on the under as we’ve seen the total fall from 49 to 47. The Pats are 7-4 to the under this season while the Chargers are 7-4 to the over.

–Josh Applebaum (vsin)

 

 

 

NFL Wagering and Money Management

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Any sports bettor, expert nfl handicapper, and sharp gambler recognize the value of just how money management plays into having a successful season. It’s not all about taking your best NFL picks from a solid nfl handicapper and going for the win. Bankroll administration is important when betting on the NFL, and in this blog post I’ll cover a few finance pointers when counting on the NFL for profits.

You can never have sufficient education and learning about money management and investing or betting on sports. If you can practice good financial discipline in sports betting, you will certainly go a long ways. Just as you would with a sensible financial investment strategy in your 401K, IRA or the securities market and balance your risk. You may use a money manager or financial investment consultant for your investment profile, and the very same for your sports investing. However,  both you personally need to still have an understanding of the fundamentals.

The concept of bankroll management appears very easy and obvious, but numerous NFL gamblers and sports bettors do not get it. Here we cover basic principles to help you.
Even the best market nfl handicapper can enter a rough stretch. Recognizing your limits and recognizing when to take a break will always help.

Rough Patches

If the cash you’re losing is earmarked for buying sports or social sports betting, cash you could afford to lose, then you will not be ruining your finances. Conversely, putting money aside for investing in sporting activities that you can afford to lose will keep you from difficult and awkward financial circumstances.

Just what is your bankroll?

If you establish a $1000 account , assigning a wagering approach based on your comfort level and the number of systems you’ll spend, will aid in maintaining a consistent strategy. Don’t just go for one shot to win big, or lose big. That’s gambling! Diversifying your money on the systems you’ll invest on various wagering or investing possibilities, will help you in the long run. We generally advise using a conventional 1 % money management philosophy, even though others may be much wilder ; just as those Wall Street investors who could invest smaller sized allocations into mutual fund into equities gradually, vs. the recreational investor who might go crazy and go full into an huge investment in the gold futures market.

Bankroll accessibility

You likewise need to have the bankroll where it is available. If you are wagering online, you need to be funding your account prior to betting, making the cash readily available when you need it. And not simply at one sportsbook , a number of sportsbooks. Sportsbooks will offer different lines on games, and searching those possibilities to obtain even more return with one sportsbook over another. Having your money spread at a few reliable online sportsbooks will allow you to spend and play at anytime.

Sorts of sporting activities spending or wager types

Understanding the various type of sporting activities wagers and sports investments is essential. Never ever simply opt for the one time shot. Know the wagers rules and the appropriate bankroll for that.

Betting longshots indicates having deeper pockets considering that you will have a lower winning percentage with statistical certainty. Other gamblers will need a smaller bankroll given that they can expect a higher winning percentage.

For instance, understanding the basic NFL bet types as spread (ATS), cash lines and totals (over/under), teasers, parlays etc.

Portfolio track record

Treat your NFL betting activities spending as managing an equity financial investment collection (stocks,  401K, and so on), and keep a document of each bet or financial investment in addition to the most essential variables.

With time you’ll find situations where you executed flawlessly, and other areas you did not. For instance, you might discover you made the very best ROI or yield in the NFL preseason versus regular season. Or perhaps better performance with a particular NFL handicapper over another NFL handicapper, or at specific odds and bet sizes.
Keep a track record of your performance. Record-keeping is as crucial in sports wagering as the bet itself.
You need to keep your documents up to date date with all the pertinent information such as bet dimension, condition of your money in the past and after the game, and wager types (ATS, money line, total amounts, etc.). Recording these crucial portfolio metrics will assist you in identifying the precise size and type of your future bets and assist you in making incremental profits over time!

Bankroll money management and applying it can be tiresome initially, but once you begin doing it, you will know the value it produces in your NFL portfolio, and boost your profits! 🙂


How Everybody Can Earn Money Online

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The 3 Main Reasons Most Amateur Sports Bettors Lose Money

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“This guy Archie came into my book on the first week of September and bet about $1k on ten different NFL games. He ended up going 9-1, and turned his $10k into $18k. (n.b. we are ignoring vig for the sake of simple calculations) I knew he would be back though, and sure enough he was there the following week, betting $2k on nine different NFL games and totals. He got hot again, and went 7-2, and his $10k had now grown to $28k in just two weeks. I wasn’t worried though, because the story is always the same with these guys. In week three, he came in with 7 more ‘locks’ and put $4k on each game, only to go 1-6, losing three of the games in the last minute. Frustrated with his bad luck, he put all of his remaining $8k on the Monday Night Under, which busted when the Broncos scored a meaningless touchdown in the final minute. Three weeks after he started, Archie was broke.”

The 3 main reasons amateurs lose money:

          1.   They over bet.

         2.   They vary their bet size dramatically.

         3.    They fail to appreciate the amount of randomness in game outcomes and forecast accuracy.

                (the media contributes to this view by understating the luck factor).

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