NFL Wagering and Money Management

Any sports bettor, expert nfl handicapper, and sharp gambler recognize the value of just how money management plays into having a successful season. It’s not all about taking your best NFL picks from a solid nfl handicapper and going for the win. Bankroll administration is important when betting on the NFL, and in this blog post I’ll cover a few finance pointers when counting on the NFL for profits.

You can never have sufficient education and learning about money management and investing or betting on sports. If you can practice good financial discipline in sports betting, you will certainly go a long ways. Just as you would with a sensible financial investment strategy in your 401K, IRA or the securities market and balance your risk. You may use a money manager or financial investment consultant for your investment profile, and the very same for your sports investing. However,  both you personally need to still have an understanding of the fundamentals.

The concept of bankroll management appears very easy and obvious, but numerous NFL gamblers and sports bettors do not get it. Here we cover basic principles to help you.
Even the best market nfl handicapper can enter a rough stretch. Recognizing your limits and recognizing when to take a break will always help.

Rough Patches

If the cash you’re losing is earmarked for buying sports or social sports betting, cash you could afford to lose, then you will not be ruining your finances. Conversely, putting money aside for investing in sporting activities that you can afford to lose will keep you from difficult and awkward financial circumstances.

Just what is your bankroll?

If you establish a $1000 account , assigning a wagering approach based on your comfort level and the number of systems you’ll spend, will aid in maintaining a consistent strategy. Don’t just go for one shot to win big, or lose big. That’s gambling! Diversifying your money on the systems you’ll invest on various wagering or investing possibilities, will help you in the long run. We generally advise using a conventional 1 % money management philosophy, even though others may be much wilder ; just as those Wall Street investors who could invest smaller sized allocations into mutual fund into equities gradually, vs. the recreational investor who might go crazy and go full into an huge investment in the gold futures market.

Bankroll accessibility

You likewise need to have the bankroll where it is available. If you are wagering online, you need to be funding your account prior to betting, making the cash readily available when you need it. And not simply at one sportsbook , a number of sportsbooks. Sportsbooks will offer different lines on games, and searching those possibilities to obtain even more return with one sportsbook over another. Having your money spread at a few reliable online sportsbooks will allow you to spend and play at anytime.

Sorts of sporting activities spending or wager types

Understanding the various type of sporting activities wagers and sports investments is essential. Never ever simply opt for the one time shot. Know the wagers rules and the appropriate bankroll for that.

Betting longshots indicates having deeper pockets considering that you will have a lower winning percentage with statistical certainty. Other gamblers will need a smaller bankroll given that they can expect a higher winning percentage.

For instance, understanding the basic NFL bet types as spread (ATS), cash lines and totals (over/under), teasers, parlays etc.

Portfolio track record

Treat your NFL betting activities spending as managing an equity financial investment collection (stocks,  401K, and so on), and keep a document of each bet or financial investment in addition to the most essential variables.

With time you’ll find situations where you executed flawlessly, and other areas you did not. For instance, you might discover you made the very best ROI or yield in the NFL preseason versus regular season. Or perhaps better performance with a particular NFL handicapper over another NFL handicapper, or at specific odds and bet sizes.
Keep a track record of your performance. Record-keeping is as crucial in sports wagering as the bet itself.
You need to keep your documents up to date date with all the pertinent information such as bet dimension, condition of your money in the past and after the game, and wager types (ATS, money line, total amounts, etc.). Recording these crucial portfolio metrics will assist you in identifying the precise size and type of your future bets and assist you in making incremental profits over time!

Bankroll money management and applying it can be tiresome initially, but once you begin doing it, you will know the value it produces in your NFL portfolio, and boost your profits! 🙂


The NFL gets into gambling: what the exclusive casino sponsorship with Caesars will mean for football fans

After years of outright contempt for gambling, the National Football League has brokered a deal with Caesars Entertainment Corp., which will impact football fans and casino players alike. Caesars is currently the largest casino operator in the US and the fans have long been awaiting to see the NFL enter the gambling world.

From rejection to golden deals

Until recently, the NFL famously avoided to get involved with gambling and sports betting. The NFL claimed that gambling was one of the biggest threats it could face, and it was one of the most vocal opponents to sports betting and its effects on the game. But the NFL surprised everyone earlier this year when it announced that Caesars Entertainment would be its first-everofficial casino sponsor“. Insiders expect an arrangement of $30 million-per-year for the next three years.

Last year, the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act allowed states to legalize sports wagering. The ruling directly resulted in the NBA, NHL and MLB partnering up with MGM Resorts International, Caesars’ biggest competitor, and in the more recent deal between Caesars and the NFL.

What does this deal mean for me?

Although the exclusive deal has not mentioned sports gambling as such, it certainly represents exciting opportunities for football and gambling enthusiasts. As of now, Caesars can use NFL trademarks so that fans can expect to find NFL branded items in casinos near them. Fans might also be able to witness NFL exclusive events in selected casinos and hotels. For instance, Caesars Rewards members can rejoice at the possibility to experience the unique NFL Draft Party, taking place at the famous Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. For the few unlucky ones unable to fly out to Vegas straight away, do not despair, Casinorange.com got you covered! You can try your luck at some of the best online casino games until NFL events come to your favourite casino.

Hopefully, the recent merger between Caesars and Eldorado Resorts Inc. will increase the NFL offerings for fans. Although both companies failed to mention the NFL sponsorship during the official deal announcement, we can already speculate on how the newly largest casino company in the US will make most of this partnership for gambling fans who love football.

The 3 Main Reasons Most Amateur Sports Bettors Lose Money

Does the following scenario sound familiar?

“This guy Archie came into my book on the first week of September and bet about $1k on ten different NFL games. He ended up going 9-1, and turned his $10k into $18k. (n.b. we are ignoring vig for the sake of simple calculations) I knew he would be back though, and sure enough he was there the following week, betting $2k on nine different NFL games and totals. He got hot again, and went 7-2, and his $10k had now grown to $28k in just two weeks. I wasn’t worried though, because the story is always the same with these guys. In week three, he came in with 7 more ‘locks’ and put $4k on each game, only to go 1-6, losing three of the games in the last minute. Frustrated with his bad luck, he put all of his remaining $8k on the Monday Night Under, which busted when the Broncos scored a meaningless touchdown in the final minute. Three weeks after he started, Archie was broke.”

The 3 main reasons amateurs lose money:

          1.   They over bet.

         2.   They vary their bet size dramatically.

         3.    They fail to appreciate the amount of randomness in game outcomes and forecast accuracy.

                (the media contributes to this view by understating the luck factor).

For the correct mathematics:

 

CLICK HERE!

What Does the Post-PASPA Gambling Landscape Hold for the United States?

In May of 2018, the US Supreme Court overturned the earlier PASPA ruling that had effectively outlawed any form of sports betting in the country. While there had been some notable exceptions, mostly in illegal form, it was clear that the United States was entering a new era,

As we head towards the end of the year, it’s a good opportunity to reflect on the decision and to assess the pros and cons of legal sports gambling across America.

Early Adopters

It’s fair to say that the PASPA ruling has led to a trickle of developments as opposed to a flood. When America got the go ahead on sports betting, some of the biggest names in the industry made an early move and we saw some gambling floors built in established Las Vegas casinos.

Betting operations also moved to the racetrack and some early sports sponsorship deals were struck between operators and clubs across America. A high profile merger also took place between a well known brand and a US Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) site so there were some early movements in the wake of the decision. To date, only a few states have adopted sports betting and the forecast for growth remains steady rather than spectacular.

A report in November 2018 claimed that in two years, the number of American states allowing sports betting would grow to 24 but is this a good move or are there concerns about the developing situation?

Building the Coffers

One of the clear benefits of introducing sports betting would be the additional revenue that each individual state stands to earn. Back in August of 2018, a report carried out by Oxford University suggested that the industry could provide a $14 billion boost to the US GDP on an annual basis and the performance of the gambling sector in other countries indicates that this is no wild claim.

Over in the UK, reports show that the gambling industry there brings in close to £14 billion annually so, in a country as vast and as populous as the United States, there must be scope to hit the $14 billion mark.

Keeping it Clean

Legalised betting will also help to bring the practise out of the underground and away from the world of criminal activities. The US has its own problems and in other countries where sports betting is outlawed, the criminals find a way to carry on regardless.

Elsewhere, the PASPA ruling has also opened the door for official sports sponsorship and some brands have been quick to adopt this. The NBA and NHL have been lining up betting partners while soccer side the Las Vegas Lights secured a high profile sponsor to bring much needed funds into the club.

The Potential Downsides

When the announcement from the US Supreme Court was made in May, there were some dissenting voices and that’s to be expected. Among the concerns was the issue of gambling addiction which can be evident in other countries while some sports governing bodies felt that legalised sports betting could usher in the spectre of match fixing.

A further concern may be brought to life as the situation develops: As individual states in the US choose to adopt sports betting, there is a school of thought suggesting that those that delay or refuse to allow the practise may see a rise in illegal activities.

There are some points to consider but on the whole, the outlook for sports betting in the United States is a positive one and it will be fascinating to see the situation develop through 2019 and beyond.

5 NFL Teams to Look Out For in 2018

As we get closer to the start of the 2018 NFL season, there is enough information floating around that even people that are not actively watching or listening should have a pretty good idea of which teams are expected to be at the top of the NFL this season. But let’s look a little deeper and consider their implied probability via the odds in betDSI.

The first team that we should keep our eye on is the Cleveland Browns. Got you! No, the Browns won’t be a contender … and despite the public thinking that they will win six games this season, I believe they’ll be lucky to get three.

 New England Patriots

The New England Patriots are once again the favorites to win it all. They have one of the easier schedules in the league this year, and of course, Tom Brady is Tom Brady. He is at the top of the list to throw for the most passing yards and the most touchdowns in 2018. But that said, there have been quite a few personnel changes, and there are some questions that remain to be fully answered on the offensive line.

 Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are listed as the second most probable team to win the Super Bowl next winter. Their schedule strength is middling, and they have a unique situation where either of their top-two QBs can step in and win big games. They also have the fourth-best defense in the league, and with Michael Bennet and Haloti Ngata adding depth to the defensive line, the Eagles will be disruptive up front and tough to beat.

 Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings picked up Sheldon Richardson for a one-year deal and added Mike Hughes at corner. To put it bluntly, the Vikings defense is going to be scary this season. The Purple People Eaters are back and opposing offenses are going to have a rough day each Sunday that they have to face Minnesota. Depending on where you look, you can find the Vikings at the same price to win the Super Bowl as the Eagles, but they opened as the 4th favorite at +1400. The NFC North is brutal, and the Vikings are tied for the 8th toughest schedule this year. But, you know what they say, defense wins championships, and they are No. 1.

 Green Bay Packers

The Packers got a raw deal with the cheap-shot on Aaron Rodgers last year. So, you have to think that despite having the hardest schedule in the NFL, they are coming out with a chip on their shoulder. The Packers opened at +900 (9/1) to win the Super Bowl tied with the Eagles as the second most probable. I think their schedule is probably too difficult given the circumstances to make the Super Bowl. But if they can stay healthy, they’ll play spoiler to a lot of teams throughout the season.

 Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are the second only to the Pats in the AFC on the betting odds boards, and they are heavy favorites to win their division. Pittsburgh has a projected regular season wins total of 10.5 games, but even though they have cracked the lid on their season wins number year after year, they are underdogs to go past ten wins. The Steelers have one of the weaker schedules in 2018, and it should rank somewhere in the bottom two-thirds. Plus, they are only listed as underdogs against the spread on the early lines just once the entire season. And it’s only a 1-point spread that game comes against the Saints in NOLA. I see the Steelers pulling down 12 wins this year.

It’s the perfect storm for the Steelers in 2018. They have an easy schedule (if any schedule in the NFL could be considered ‘easy’) and this is most certainly Le’Veon Bell’s last season in Pittsburgh, so he has to keep his stock high. In addition to that, the entirety of the offensive line is returning, making it one of the most experienced and cohesive in the league. Big Ben should be well protected, and we could see a record year out of Bell. Pittsburg is also coming into the 2018 season with a top-5 defense. If anyone is going to unseat the Pats in the AFC, it’s Pitt.

 

5 NFL Coaches Burning On the Hot Seat


It’s the one day of the year that head coaches of under-performing NFL teams dread the most: Black Monday. That’s the Monday morning after the conclusion of Week 17 of the NFL’s regular season, when many organizations that are disappointed with their team’s direction decide to make a head coaching change, and get a head start on hiring a new coach among the pool of prospective candidates. In any given year, somewhere between six or eight franchises (if not more) decide to make changes on that Monday or Tuesday.  Obviously, how these decisions play out will affect sports bettings odds for the season.

The sad part is, through Week 12 of the 2017 NFL season, the list of coaches who could be dismissed at year’s end could be on the higher end of that annual average. But we culled our list to the five head coaches who are sitting on the hottest of hot seats, as of today:

5. Jack Del Rio, Oakland Raiders — Before the 2017 season started, there were plenty of people who believed that the Oakland Raiders were primed to leapfrog the Kansas City Chiefs and take control of the AFC West. Derek Carr was one of the most promising young quarterbacks in the league, throwing to one of the better duos of wide receivers in the league (Amari Cooper). They had one of the five best offensive lines in the NFL. And on defense, they had perhaps the best overall edge rusher — if not the best defensive player overall in Khalil Mack — in the league as well. But after starting the season with back-to-back wins, the Raiders are 2-6 over their last eight games. In their last two losses, they’ve been outscored by a combined 45 points. The offense is underachieving, and a somewhat questionable defense has been terrible this year (they’re 26th overall in yards allowed per game, and 27th in passing yards per game). If Del Rio can’t lead this team to at least seven or eight wins this year, he could find himself out a job.

4. Dirk Koetter, Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Whether the Oakland Raiders or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the most disappointing team for the 2017 season would make for an interesting debate. After captivating the nation’s interest during this season of HBO’s “Hard Knocks” television show, Tampa Bay became a very trendy playoff pick, and everyone assumed that quarterback Jameis Winston was primed to make “the leap” into a true franchise quarterback. But Winston struggled mightily this year before going down with a shoulder injury, and Tampa Bay finds themselves with the fourth-worst record in the NFC through 10 games; the blame for both will fall squarely on Koetter’s shoulders. There are lots of rumors of big-name coaches being interested in the Tampa Bay job (Jon Gruden among them), and if someone of that caliber were to be sufficiently interested, the organization would have little hesitation in pushing Koetter out the door.

3. Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis Colts — Chuck Pagano has managed to evade the “bad coaching” spotlight over the last few weeks, as his Colts team has played tough against their last three opponents; and yet, even in that span, the Colts are still 1-2. Regardless of the fact that quarterback Andrew Luck’s shoulder injury and recovery was so mismanaged that it’s cost him this entire year, and the fact that Pagano was stuck with one of the worst-built rosters in the NFL (thanks to former General Manager Ryan Grigson), the Colts have simply found ways to lose week after week. That says a lot about the person leading the team.  New General Manager Chris Ballard, who was hired this past offseason, will very likely try and bring in someone whom he’s familiar with, to coach this team.

2. Hue Jackson, Cleveland Browns — We’ll start off by saying this, as ridiculous as it may sound: Hue Jackson is a good football coach. He has a good football mind, and he’s someone that his players will play hard for. That being said, the NFL is a results-driven league, and there is simply no excuse for the fact that the Browns have a 1-25 record since the start of the 2016 regular season. It’s not Jackson’s fault that the team’s analytics-driven front office decided to pass on the opportunity to draft guys like Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson, leaving Jackson to try and win games with an overwhelmed rookie like DeShone Kizer. But a handful of very questionable coaching decisions by Jackson this season didn’t really help his cause either. He looks like an inevitable casualty of Cleveland’s “factory of sadness.”

1. Ben McAdoo, New York Giants — Regardless of their win against the (reeling) Kansas City Chiefs, it’s all but a foregone conclusion that Ben McAdoo will be fired by the New York Giants at the end of the season.  In the three weeks prior to their win against Kansas City, the Giants had not only gone 0-3 (giving them a 1-8 record through nine games), but had lost those three games by an average of over 20 points per game. The last loss in that streak included a double-digit loss to the previously winless San Francisco 49ers. It’s been overly clear that McAdoo is simply overmatched as a head coach, and there are too many whispers about his players quitting on him for them not to be true. Expect this announcement to be made very, very shortly after the season is over.

The Human Mind Needs to Be Rewired for Sports Betting Success


Source: The human mind tends to overweigh small sample recent events, not taking into account randomness.

Artificial Intelligence can be taught to be more patient than the human mind when assessing sports improvement/degradation.

Don’t Overlook These NFL MVP Candidates for 2015-6 (archival article)

It is fun and potentially lucrative to bet on the NFL MVP award winner.

It seems like all we hear about these days is Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Tom Brady and Russell Wilson. Bla-bla-bla….But we give you four other  NFL offensive players who are rated as longshots but have a decent chance to win the award:

 

 Adrian Peterson, Running Back, Minnesota Vikings at 8-1:

A lot of people are overlooking Adrian Peterson due to his off field issues. They are forgetting that he is one of the most talented running backs of all time!

The Vikings lost four of  nine games last season by a combined eight points! With Peterson now back in the fold and additions on both sides of the ball, Minnesota can do some serious damage. At age  30  he has nearly 2,300 total touches under his belt. However, he’s had an entire season to rest! He’s  averaged nearly 1,700 total yards and 13 touchdowns in his first seven NFL seasons.  If he performs similarly he could  easily walk off with the MVP trophy!

 

 Tony Romo, Quarterback, Dallas Cowboys at 15-1:

Tony Romo can be a very effective and dangerous quarterback. Last season with the assistance of Demarco Murray , Dez Bryant and a strong offensive line he led the Dallas Cowboys to a 12-4 record. He led the league with a 69.9 completion percentage and a 113.2 quarterback rating. He threw for over 3,700 yards with 34 touchdowns and 9 interceptions.

If Dallas and Romo have another great season, he will have arrived into the elite category and will surely be a hot MVP candidate.

 

Antonio Brown, Wide Receiver, Pittsburgh Steelers at 15-1:

By now everybody recognizes the extraordinary productivity of Antonio Brown. If anybody is a potential dark horse candidate for the MVP award it is surely him. Last year’s season was simply phenomenal.His 129 receptions were second-most in league history. The 1,698 receiving yards Brown put up were sixth in league history. What if he improves on these numbers? How could voters ignore him as they did last year?

 

 Philip Rivers, Quarterback, San Diego Chargers at 20-1:

OMG! Phillip Rivers seems to get better with age!

He put up nearly 4,300 yards with 31 touchdowns last year. Unfortunately the Chargers lacked a running game. They ranked 31st in the NFL in yards per rush at 3.3 and 30th at 80.4 yards per game. Hopefully, now that the Chargers added Melvin Gordon in the first round of the 2015 NFL draft, Rivers should have more support on the ground. Throughout history the elite quarterbacks have typically had such a solid running option to go to. San Diego is loaded in the passing game and has one of the most underrated offensive lines in the NFL.  If San Diego wins the AFC West over Peyton Manning’s Broncos don’t be surprised if Rivers is getting lots of MVP love!