2023-24 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings
Beating the NFL Pointspread with AI and ML
Comeback? Comeback? Johnny Football Manziel
Sports betting has been around for centuries. It’s long been a beloved activity of sports fans worldwide, offering another way sports fans can engage with their favorite sports and other fans. But if you’re new to sports betting, you might not know much about it, how to place a bet, or even where to start. Consider this your beginner’s guide to sports betting.
Recent History of Sports Betting
In the long history of sports betting, the most important time to pay attention to is recent history. Specifically, what’s been happening over the last few decades. From 1992 to 2018, sports betting was illegal in the United States. Sports fans of course still placed bets, but it was a lot harder to do so.
In 2018, the U.S. Supreme Court decided that making sports betting illegal was unconstitutional and that states should have the right to choose whether or not sports betting should be legal. States like Pennsylvania, New Mexico, New Jersey, Nevada, and Rhode Island now have completely legalized sports betting. States like New York, Indiana, and Montana have legalized sports betting only in select areas, and many other states are working on bills right now to legalize some form of sports betting.
Although many professional sports leagues like the NFL were originally against the legalization of sports betting, they’ve now come around to the idea. Small taxes on bets can provide various leagues with additional income. Plus, it offers another way to keep fans engaged with their favorite sports and teams, which is the end goal of every team. The NFL, for example, recently signed a deal with Caesars Entertainment for exactly that purpose.
Where Should You Place Bets?
This all depends on where you live. If sports betting is legal throughout your state, then you have nothing to worry about. The most convenient place for you is to place bets online through a reputable website or app. You might choose a site or app specifically known for placing sports bets, or one that offers a wide selection of gaming and betting options.
But if you live in one of the states with legal sports betting only in specific areas, then you’ll have to follow those rules. This might require you to place bets in a physical casino, whether in person or on a mobile phone. And if you think you can get around this, think again: Most sites or apps will verify your location before you can place a bet.
Additionally, it’s important to know that many betting sites will offer you a sign-up bonus or credit, or other perks like getting a refund if you lose your first bet. Do some research and find out which site best fits what you’re looking for. But before you place a bet, make sure to keep these three reasons new bettors often lose money in mind, and be sure to place your bets wisely!
eSports Betting
There’s a lot of money in eSports, and eSports covers a wide variety of games, from first person shooters, to sports games, to fantasy games. The now billion-dollar industry is hugely competitive and popular, with prize pools for tournaments sometimes reaching into the millions. Just like with traditional sports, eSports fans will place bets on games and even travel long distances to watch their favorite gamers (who are often professional gamers) compete.
Similar to traditional sports betting, you can place bets on eSports tournaments on many general sports betting websites or else on eSports betting websites. The process of placing bets is exactly the same. The most popular eSports to bet on are usually League of Legends, Counter Strike GO, and Dota 2.
Between the legalization of sports betting in the U.S. and the arrival of eSports betting, this is certainly an exciting time in the world of sports betting — and an exciting time to get involved and place a bet.
After years of outright contempt for gambling, the National Football League has brokered a deal with Caesars Entertainment Corp., which will impact football fans and casino players alike. Caesars is currently the largest casino operator in the US and the fans have long been awaiting to see the NFL enter the gambling world.
From rejection to golden deals
Until recently, the NFL famously avoided to get involved with gambling and sports betting. The NFL claimed that gambling was one of the biggest threats it could face, and it was one of the most vocal opponents to sports betting and its effects on the game. But the NFL surprised everyone earlier this year when it announced that Caesars Entertainment would be its first-ever “official casino sponsor“. Insiders expect an arrangement of $30 million-per-year for the next three years.
Last year, the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act allowed states to legalize sports wagering. The ruling directly resulted in the NBA, NHL and MLB partnering up with MGM Resorts International, Caesars’ biggest competitor, and in the more recent deal between Caesars and the NFL.
What does this deal mean for me?
Although the exclusive deal has not mentioned sports gambling as such, it certainly represents exciting opportunities for football and gambling enthusiasts. As of now, Caesars can use NFL trademarks so that fans can expect to find NFL branded items in casinos near them. Fans might also be able to witness NFL exclusive events in selected casinos and hotels. For instance, Caesars Rewards members can rejoice at the possibility to experience the unique NFL Draft Party, taking place at the famous Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. For the few unlucky ones unable to fly out to Vegas straight away, do not despair, Casinorange.com got you covered! You can try your luck at some of the best online casino games until NFL events come to your favourite casino.
Hopefully, the recent merger between Caesars and Eldorado Resorts Inc. will increase the NFL offerings for fans. Although both companies failed to mention the NFL sponsorship during the official deal announcement, we can already speculate on how the newly largest casino company in the US will make most of this partnership for gambling fans who love football.
Does the following scenario sound familiar?
“This guy Archie came into my book on the first week of September and bet about $1k on ten different NFL games. He ended up going 9-1, and turned his $10k into $18k. (n.b. we are ignoring vig for the sake of simple calculations) I knew he would be back though, and sure enough he was there the following week, betting $2k on nine different NFL games and totals. He got hot again, and went 7-2, and his $10k had now grown to $28k in just two weeks. I wasn’t worried though, because the story is always the same with these guys. In week three, he came in with 7 more ‘locks’ and put $4k on each game, only to go 1-6, losing three of the games in the last minute. Frustrated with his bad luck, he put all of his remaining $8k on the Monday Night Under, which busted when the Broncos scored a meaningless touchdown in the final minute. Three weeks after he started, Archie was broke.”
The 3 main reasons amateurs lose money:
1. They over bet.
2. They vary their bet size dramatically.
3. They fail to appreciate the amount of randomness in game outcomes and forecast accuracy.
(the media contributes to this view by understating the luck factor).
For the correct mathematics:
In May of 2018, the US Supreme Court overturned the earlier PASPA ruling that had effectively outlawed any form of sports betting in the country. While there had been some notable exceptions, mostly in illegal form, it was clear that the United States was entering a new era,
As we head towards the end of the year, it’s a good opportunity to reflect on the decision and to assess the pros and cons of legal sports gambling across America.
Early Adopters
It’s fair to say that the PASPA ruling has led to a trickle of developments as opposed to a flood. When America got the go ahead on sports betting, some of the biggest names in the industry made an early move and we saw some gambling floors built in established Las Vegas casinos.
Betting operations also moved to the racetrack and some early sports sponsorship deals were struck between operators and clubs across America. A high profile merger also took place between a well known brand and a US Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) site so there were some early movements in the wake of the decision. To date, only a few states have adopted sports betting and the forecast for growth remains steady rather than spectacular.
A report in November 2018 claimed that in two years, the number of American states allowing sports betting would grow to 24 but is this a good move or are there concerns about the developing situation?
Building the Coffers
One of the clear benefits of introducing sports betting would be the additional revenue that each individual state stands to earn. Back in August of 2018, a report carried out by Oxford University suggested that the industry could provide a $14 billion boost to the US GDP on an annual basis and the performance of the gambling sector in other countries indicates that this is no wild claim.
Over in the UK, reports show that the gambling industry there brings in close to £14 billion annually so, in a country as vast and as populous as the United States, there must be scope to hit the $14 billion mark.
Keeping it Clean
Legalised betting will also help to bring the practise out of the underground and away from the world of criminal activities. The US has its own problems and in other countries where sports betting is outlawed, the criminals find a way to carry on regardless.
Elsewhere, the PASPA ruling has also opened the door for official sports sponsorship and some brands have been quick to adopt this. The NBA and NHL have been lining up betting partners while soccer side the Las Vegas Lights secured a high profile sponsor to bring much needed funds into the club.
The Potential Downsides
When the announcement from the US Supreme Court was made in May, there were some dissenting voices and that’s to be expected. Among the concerns was the issue of gambling addiction which can be evident in other countries while some sports governing bodies felt that legalised sports betting could usher in the spectre of match fixing.
A further concern may be brought to life as the situation develops: As individual states in the US choose to adopt sports betting, there is a school of thought suggesting that those that delay or refuse to allow the practise may see a rise in illegal activities.
There are some points to consider but on the whole, the outlook for sports betting in the United States is a positive one and it will be fascinating to see the situation develop through 2019 and beyond.
It’s a skirmish of NFC North opponents in the Motor City to commence week 12 activity in the NFL on Thanksgiving. The Chicago Bears are out and about as they make the trek to confront the Detroit Lions Thursday evening. Chicago knocked off Minnesota 25-20 at home on Sunday night to keep their teeth on the division lead. Detroit held tight for a 20-19 win at home over Carolina Sunday evening in their last challenge. The Bears claim a 98-74-5 advantage in the history between the groups,including a 34-22 win at home in the first meeting this season on November 11.
CHICAGO BEARS
Chicago rung up their fourth straight victory as they stole the Vikings picnic basket in a clash of the top two teams in the NFC North race. The Bears currently hope to bring down another divisional enemy in order to eat the Central Division’s lunch. Chicago led 14-3 after 3 quarters and did what’s needed scoring to hold off Minnesota’s final quarter test. The two groups turned the ball over multiple times however the Bears had a picnic-six that helped them chomp the win. Chicago is 2-2 ATS on the road while they are 3-1 straight up on those camping trips.
DETROIT LIONS
Detroit snapped a three game losing slide as they figured out how to hold off the Panthers, to a limited extent because of luck and a couple unique team miscues via Carolina. The Lions hope to chomp consecutive wins with a goal of getting back to 0.500 on the season . Detroit was out gained 387-309 in the game: the two groups finished with 20 first downs. The Lions controlled the clock 31:40 to 28:20. So, had Carolina not missed an extra point, a short field goal and a two point try, things could have turned in an unexpected way. Detroit is 3-2 ATS at home this season while the UNDER is 3-2 in those games.
OUTLOOK
The two teams come into this with wins last week. The Bears have won four straight and have opened up breathing room in the NFC North race. Chicago needs to get wins where they can given that they have the Rams, Packers and Vikings ahead. The Lions ripped their way to a victory over the Panthers yet that probably won’t help much. We saw the Bears growl past the Lions 11 days back in a game where Chicago was 26-7 at the half. Chicago could have set up more scores had Cody Parkey not banged the upright on two field goal attempts and a couple of point after attempts. It will be a tough test for the Lions, particularly if Kerryon Johnson’s knee damage that he sustained against Carolina Sunday is serious. Enjoy!
Bears vs. Lions Thanksgiving Turkey Day Free Play Odds
As we get closer to the start of the 2018 NFL season, there is enough information floating around that even people that are not actively watching or listening should have a pretty good idea of which teams are expected to be at the top of the NFL this season. But let’s look a little deeper and consider their implied probability via the odds in betDSI.
The first team that we should keep our eye on is the Cleveland Browns. Got you! No, the Browns won’t be a contender … and despite the public thinking that they will win six games this season, I believe they’ll be lucky to get three.
The New England Patriots are once again the favorites to win it all. They have one of the easier schedules in the league this year, and of course, Tom Brady is Tom Brady. He is at the top of the list to throw for the most passing yards and the most touchdowns in 2018. But that said, there have been quite a few personnel changes, and there are some questions that remain to be fully answered on the offensive line.
The Eagles are listed as the second most probable team to win the Super Bowl next winter. Their schedule strength is middling, and they have a unique situation where either of their top-two QBs can step in and win big games. They also have the fourth-best defense in the league, and with Michael Bennet and Haloti Ngata adding depth to the defensive line, the Eagles will be disruptive up front and tough to beat.
The Vikings picked up Sheldon Richardson for a one-year deal and added Mike Hughes at corner. To put it bluntly, the Vikings defense is going to be scary this season. The Purple People Eaters are back and opposing offenses are going to have a rough day each Sunday that they have to face Minnesota. Depending on where you look, you can find the Vikings at the same price to win the Super Bowl as the Eagles, but they opened as the 4th favorite at +1400. The NFC North is brutal, and the Vikings are tied for the 8th toughest schedule this year. But, you know what they say, defense wins championships, and they are No. 1.
The Packers got a raw deal with the cheap-shot on Aaron Rodgers last year. So, you have to think that despite having the hardest schedule in the NFL, they are coming out with a chip on their shoulder. The Packers opened at +900 (9/1) to win the Super Bowl tied with the Eagles as the second most probable. I think their schedule is probably too difficult given the circumstances to make the Super Bowl. But if they can stay healthy, they’ll play spoiler to a lot of teams throughout the season.
The Steelers are the second only to the Pats in the AFC on the betting odds boards, and they are heavy favorites to win their division. Pittsburgh has a projected regular season wins total of 10.5 games, but even though they have cracked the lid on their season wins number year after year, they are underdogs to go past ten wins. The Steelers have one of the weaker schedules in 2018, and it should rank somewhere in the bottom two-thirds. Plus, they are only listed as underdogs against the spread on the early lines just once the entire season. And it’s only a 1-point spread that game comes against the Saints in NOLA. I see the Steelers pulling down 12 wins this year.
It’s the perfect storm for the Steelers in 2018. They have an easy schedule (if any schedule in the NFL could be considered ‘easy’) and this is most certainly Le’Veon Bell’s last season in Pittsburgh, so he has to keep his stock high. In addition to that, the entirety of the offensive line is returning, making it one of the most experienced and cohesive in the league. Big Ben should be well protected, and we could see a record year out of Bell. Pittsburg is also coming into the 2018 season with a top-5 defense. If anyone is going to unseat the Pats in the AFC, it’s Pitt.
It’s the one day of the year that head coaches of under-performing NFL teams dread the most: Black Monday. That’s the Monday morning after the conclusion of Week 17 of the NFL’s regular season, when many organizations that are disappointed with their team’s direction decide to make a head coaching change, and get a head start on hiring a new coach among the pool of prospective candidates. In any given year, somewhere between six or eight franchises (if not more) decide to make changes on that Monday or Tuesday. Obviously, how these decisions play out will affect sports bettings odds for the season.
The sad part is, through Week 12 of the 2017 NFL season, the list of coaches who could be dismissed at year’s end could be on the higher end of that annual average. But we culled our list to the five head coaches who are sitting on the hottest of hot seats, as of today:
5. Jack Del Rio, Oakland Raiders — Before the 2017 season started, there were plenty of people who believed that the Oakland Raiders were primed to leapfrog the Kansas City Chiefs and take control of the AFC West. Derek Carr was one of the most promising young quarterbacks in the league, throwing to one of the better duos of wide receivers in the league (Amari Cooper). They had one of the five best offensive lines in the NFL. And on defense, they had perhaps the best overall edge rusher — if not the best defensive player overall in Khalil Mack — in the league as well. But after starting the season with back-to-back wins, the Raiders are 2-6 over their last eight games. In their last two losses, they’ve been outscored by a combined 45 points. The offense is underachieving, and a somewhat questionable defense has been terrible this year (they’re 26th overall in yards allowed per game, and 27th in passing yards per game). If Del Rio can’t lead this team to at least seven or eight wins this year, he could find himself out a job.
4. Dirk Koetter, Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Whether the Oakland Raiders or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the most disappointing team for the 2017 season would make for an interesting debate. After captivating the nation’s interest during this season of HBO’s “Hard Knocks” television show, Tampa Bay became a very trendy playoff pick, and everyone assumed that quarterback Jameis Winston was primed to make “the leap” into a true franchise quarterback. But Winston struggled mightily this year before going down with a shoulder injury, and Tampa Bay finds themselves with the fourth-worst record in the NFC through 10 games; the blame for both will fall squarely on Koetter’s shoulders. There are lots of rumors of big-name coaches being interested in the Tampa Bay job (Jon Gruden among them), and if someone of that caliber were to be sufficiently interested, the organization would have little hesitation in pushing Koetter out the door.
3. Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis Colts — Chuck Pagano has managed to evade the “bad coaching” spotlight over the last few weeks, as his Colts team has played tough against their last three opponents; and yet, even in that span, the Colts are still 1-2. Regardless of the fact that quarterback Andrew Luck’s shoulder injury and recovery was so mismanaged that it’s cost him this entire year, and the fact that Pagano was stuck with one of the worst-built rosters in the NFL (thanks to former General Manager Ryan Grigson), the Colts have simply found ways to lose week after week. That says a lot about the person leading the team. New General Manager Chris Ballard, who was hired this past offseason, will very likely try and bring in someone whom he’s familiar with, to coach this team.
2. Hue Jackson, Cleveland Browns — We’ll start off by saying this, as ridiculous as it may sound: Hue Jackson is a good football coach. He has a good football mind, and he’s someone that his players will play hard for. That being said, the NFL is a results-driven league, and there is simply no excuse for the fact that the Browns have a 1-25 record since the start of the 2016 regular season. It’s not Jackson’s fault that the team’s analytics-driven front office decided to pass on the opportunity to draft guys like Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson, leaving Jackson to try and win games with an overwhelmed rookie like DeShone Kizer. But a handful of very questionable coaching decisions by Jackson this season didn’t really help his cause either. He looks like an inevitable casualty of Cleveland’s “factory of sadness.”
1. Ben McAdoo, New York Giants — Regardless of their win against the (reeling) Kansas City Chiefs, it’s all but a foregone conclusion that Ben McAdoo will be fired by the New York Giants at the end of the season. In the three weeks prior to their win against Kansas City, the Giants had not only gone 0-3 (giving them a 1-8 record through nine games), but had lost those three games by an average of over 20 points per game. The last loss in that streak included a double-digit loss to the previously winless San Francisco 49ers. It’s been overly clear that McAdoo is simply overmatched as a head coach, and there are too many whispers about his players quitting on him for them not to be true. Expect this announcement to be made very, very shortly after the season is over.
The season is still in its early days, so people might not still have their routine for waiver wire down just yet. In fact, some might be wondering when will the waivers clear in their ESPN and Yahoo leagues. But, even if the time is still not exactly known, aside from usually being in the period between 4 and 5 a.m., on Wednesday, there will be new players on the roster. Everyone playing the game wants them to be the best alternatives so for NFL betting for week 3 or those into fantasy football, the choice will be between J.J. Nelson, Samaje Perine, Chris Carson, Rashard Higgins and many others. Injuries created quite a commotion in the domain of the fantasy world during the previous week, but this also creates new opportunities which can be taken by anyone.
Even in those cases where players might not be good enough to have a waiver claim merit, a shrewd move would be to pick them up down the same waiver wire. This possibility is also related to the size of the fantasy league, but there still will be many opportunities to pick up some real gems from the free agent list. Here is a breakdown of the top potential options and opportunities, along with the Week 3 matchups. However, it is important to mention that only players that are owned in less than 50% of the Yahoo leagues will be taken into consideration.
Rashard Higgins, Browns, WR
Corey Coleman has a broken hand and Kenny Britt is not up to the task so the catcher for the Cleveland is Higgins. He is a second-year out of Colorado State and so far managed to get 11 targets meant for the 95 yards. So far, not much is known about him aside from the current successes. Cleveland is going to have a game with Colts really soon and Higgins is likely to be in a range of lineup as their WR3, which makes the same receiver a potential keeper.
J.J. Nelson, Cardinals, WR
Nelson has two TDs in as many weeks and is close to having his third. In Week 2 he managed to attain 120 yards and seems to be the No. 2 for his team, while it is also true he managed to finish the last year in great shape. Right now, his Week 1 TD occurred in garbage time and he was out-targeted last week by John Brown. Still, he has a lot of big-play ability and as long as the team is missing John Brown he will be a good alternative for a seven or more targets every game.
Chris Carson, Seahawks, RB
The era of Thomas Rawls and Eddie Lacy as a shared No. 1 did not last long in Seattle and now Carson seems like the best guy in the backfield. The team’s coach Pete Carroll he wants to see more of Carson and this occurred on Sunday when the rookie ran 93 yards against the Oklahoma State. Now, chances are that his transition will not be this clean, being that Rawls is still involved. But, in spite of this, Carson is more than worth picking up.
Samaje Perine, Redskins, RB
There were no fractured ribs for Rob Kelley in Week 2 and more will be known by Week 3 about his status. But, the Redskin is playing on Sunday night and Perine is going to be an absolute must for the team. The rookie did not really impress during the last week with his run for 67 yards, but there was no fumble, which was his big problem in the pre-season.
Evan Engram, Giants, TE
With 4 out of 7 targets for 49 yards zone caught on Monday night, Engram is clearly going to be a big part of the offensive Giant’s line. This is especially true for the red zone and with the entire Giant’s injuries in Week 2 which took out Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham, Tyler Eifert, and Jordan Reed, there are enough chances for him. Also, he does not have a stiff competition which makes him a good candidate for the potential TE1.
Artificial Intelligence can be taught to be more patient than the human mind when assessing sports improvement/degradation.
Everyone is looking forward to the kickoff of the 2017 NFL season and not just because of the New England Patriots/Kansas City Chiefs game that will get things started. Certainly the NFL betting odds this season are worth the hype.
Everyone wants to know whether or not the Patriots will be dethroned and who will carry out the deed. But for fantasy football enthusiasts, there is a whole other prize at stake. If you are part of a fantasy football league, then the chances are high that you already drafted.
But if you haven’t yet, there are a few significant quarterbacks you might have slept on but who most definitely deserve your consideration for the 2017 season. Sleeper quarterbacks like this are easy to miss.
But if you are looking for a QB late in the draft, these guys could make all the difference to your prospects this season.
The first name on the list has to be Jay Cutler. Maybe you thought you would never have to give Cutler another thought. After all, he seemed pretty determined to retire in the offseason. You probably think that he is already off somewhere polishing his broadcaster abilities.
But you are wrong. Dolphins Coach Adam Gase threw his retirement plans out the window and dragged him back into the game, not only because of the experience he brings to the table as a former Chicago Bears and Denver Broncos QB but also because Ryan Tannehill was sidelined by a knee injury that has pretty much ended his season.
Miami couldn’t afford to continue without Cutler. So he is back in the game with a one-year deal, so do not count him out. This is as solid a first or second quarterback as they get.
Brian Hoyer closely follows Cutler on this list. Some people want to discount him because he can barely keep C.J. Beathard off his back. The San Francisco 49ers rookie is definitely impressive. But Brian is all but certain to keep his starting job this season.
And you know that Kyle Shanahan, the new coach, is going to get the best out of him. That is what Kyle does; he takes talent and polishes it. Brian is definitely a talent. He delivered a solid performance in the preseason.
The fact that he has largely gone undrafted is surprising. But he still makes a great last-round QB pick; so you might as well pounce on him.
DeShone Kizer has the most to prove of the bunch because no one knows whether or not he will be productive for the Browns’ offense this season. But the preseason gave everyone plenty of reason to keep an eye on Kizer. His 8 carries for 47 yards showed just how mobile he can be.
And with a solid team of receivers by his side, Kizer’s stock is all but guaranteed to rise.
People do not know what to make of Deshaun Watson of the Houston Texans. He isn’t expected to start. But do not be too quick to count him out. The one person standing in his way is Tom Savage.
But Tom is only guaranteed to start in Week 1. The veteran is unlikely to hold out for the whole season. So expect Watson’s potential to explode in the near future.
Andrew Luck’s Superb Plays Bolt The Colts into Victory
It is fun and potentially lucrative to bet on the NFL MVP award winner.
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