2014-5 Fantasy Football Sleepers (from various sites)

2014-5 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Q1. Who is your top RB sleeper (ADP beyond 120) and why should fantasy owners target him?

Andre Williams (RB) Giants

Overall ADP: #151

“Heading into the summer there was some thought that the 230-pounder, who scored 17 rushing touchdowns at Boston College last year, could take on the goal-line role with the Giants. Now with David Wilson
‘s latest injury, Williams moves into the backup role behind Rashad Jennings
. Note that Jennings has never played a full 16-game season, and that the talented Williams rushed for over 2,100 yards last season. Don’t be surprised if the rookie’s role expands into leading man territory at some point this season.”
– Ben Standig (CSN Washington)

“Even before David Wilson
‘s season, and likely career, came to an end, we were targeting Giants running back Andre Williams
in the late rounds. The rookie has performed well this summer and is slated for goal line duties. There is a growing sense that the Giants want to bring back the smash-mouth ground game, and Williams’s downhill skill set fits that description better than any other back on the roster.”
– Sablich Brothers (The New York Times)

Lance Dunbar (RB) Cowyboys

Overall ADP: #170

“The Cowboys boast one of the NFL’s best offensive lines and new offensive coordinator, Scott Linehan, will heavily utilize the running backs in the passing game. The starting running back, DeMarco Murray
, has missed 11 games over the past three years due to injury. Lance Dunbar
may seem undersized, but would fit seamlessly into the role that both Jahvid Best
and Reggie Bush
held under Linehan in the recent past. In the event that Murray does suffer an injury, Dunbar would instantly elevate to an RB2, even bordering on RB1 territory in PPR leagues.”
– Kyle Wachtel (Forensic Fantasy)

“Lance Dunbar
is entering his third season at age 24 and is still flying a little low because he’s missed 11 games to begin his first two seasons. In his college career at North Texas, he caught 97 passes and amassed over 5,200 yards from scrimmage. On a very small sample a season ago, he also showed off some of the magic he possesses with the ball in his hands, forcing 11 missed tackles on 37 touches. While Scott Linehan was in the Motor City, running backs accounted for 46.8% of all receptions and the second back averaged 51 targets per season.”
– Rich Hribar (XN Sports)

Carlos Hyde (RB) 49ers

Overall ADP: #144

“There are several RBs, mostly rookies, that I considered here, but Hyde was my top-ranked running back in the draft even though he seemed to land in a less-than-ideal situation from a re-draft standpoint. Since then, however, injuries have made the 49ers backfield much less congested and Hyde is clearly the team’s No. 2 option behind 31-year-old Frank Gore
. While Gore has been durable over the past three seasons, his age and cumulative workload could work against him as he posted a career-low 4.1 YPC last season. Hyde should get plenty of opportunities as the Niners begin to scale back Gore’s workload in one of the league’s most run-oriented offenses.”
– Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball)

Christine Michael (RB) Seahawks

Overall ADP: #141

“My choice here is by far Christine Michael
. While a healthy Marshawn Lynch
won’t be unseated, he has close to 2,000 touches to his name and is one aggressive rusher. Michael has the skill set to produce top 5-10 fantasy running back numbers per-start — That’s the kind of stash that could win a league.”
– Smitty (Fantasy Football Starters)

Q2. Who is your top WR sleeper (ADP beyond 120) and why should fantasy owners target him?

Justin Hunter (WR) Titans

Overall ADP: #168

“A tremendous athlete that appeared on Bruce Feldman’s annual “freaks” list in 2012, Hunter is 6-foot-4 with 4.4 speed and jumps 40-plus inches. Dangerous as a vertical receiver, he has shown flashes of his potential as a rookie with a couple of 100-yard games late last season and averaged 19.7 yards per catch. Not only has Hunter added 15 pounds to his (previously) thin frame this offseason, but he has received plenty of praise from his coaching staff as well. Hunter is oozing with breakout potential and upside heading into his second season.”
– Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball)

“At 22-years old, Justin Hunter
is a big play option. 39 percent of his targets were on passes over 20 yards downfield, and he turned three of those targets into scores. He also posted the tenth best touchdown per snap ratio out of all receivers in the entire NFL last season, scoring once per 85 plays on the field. For 2014, the Titans have brought in Ken Whisenhunt who has had no issue going vertical with the football in nearly all of the stops he’s made in the NFL. He’s also been around some pretty good young receivers such as Santonio Holmes
, Larry Fitzgerald
, Anquan Boldin
and just recently, Keenan Allen
, and has been effective at getting them the ball.”
– Rich Hribar (XN Sports)

Markus Wheaton (WR) Steelers

Overall ADP: #180

“So many interesting options here including Marvin Jones
, Justin Hunter
and Kenny Stills
, but let me go with Markus Wheaton
. A broken pinkie essentially ruined his rookie season in Pittsburgh. The departures of Emmanuel Sanders
and Jerricho Cotchery
open the door for a starting gig opposite Antonio Brown
. The Steelers drafted the 5-foot-11 speedster in the third round for a reason. Based on the team’s history of swapping out one good WR for another, expect to see why this season.”
– Ben Standig (CSN Washington)

“Pittsburgh’s third round draft pick in 2013 was buried behind Emmanuel Sanders
and Jerricho Cotchery
on the depth chart, and as a result, we rarely got a chance to see him on the field. With both of those guys now working for different teams, Wheaton’s path for a prominent role as the WR2 option in the passing game has now been paved.”
– Sablich Brothers (The New York Times)

Kenny Britt (WR) Rams

Overall ADP: #224

“I love the value of Kenny Britt
in the 14th-round right now. While he could certainly disappoint, there is just about zero risk at that range, and he has an elite skill set despite never being able to stay on the field. Britt is young, about the same age as AJ Green and Julio Jones
, so he has nice dynasty appeal as well. Don’t count on him as your WR3 in 2014, and you certainly won’t have to draft him at that value… but, don’t be shocked if he bounces back in a big way now that he is happy in his new home (St. Louis).”
– Smitty (Fantasy Football Starters)

Rueben Randle (WR) Giants

Overall ADP: #128

“In the driver’s seat to start opposite Victor Cruz
, Rueben Randle
is eyeing a breakout season. As the team’s best vertical threat and also the best red zone wide receiver, he should tally quite a few big plays as well as his share of targets in the red zone. A low-end WR3 with upside, Randle is currently being drafted three rounds later than he should be.”
– Kyle Wachtel (Forensic Fantasy)

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Q3. Who is your top TE sleeper (ADP beyond 140) and why should fantasy owners target him?

Charles Clay (TE) Dolphins

Overall ADP: #151

“The guy is 25 and ready to reach that next level. He pulled in a line of 69/759/6TDs last year, and I see no reason why he can’t top that by a decent margin this upcoming season. Multiple reports this off-season have described Clay as a “nightmare matchup.” He is a huge, huge sleeper TE in that 140+ range.”
– Smitty (Fantasy Football Starters)

“Clay posted a career-best 69 receptions, 759 yards and 6 touchdowns on 102 targets in 2013, which was good enough to be the seventh best tight end overall, yet here he is, still sitting on the board near the end of the 12th round. A solid TE1 play this late only proves just how deep the position has become over the last few years.”
– Sablich Brothers (The New York Times)

Heath Miller (TE) Steelers

Overall ADP: #157

“Heath Miller
tore his ACL late in the 2012 season and then returned to action less than a year later. Rushing his recovery may have led to him posting the lowest yards-per-reception of his career. He did total 58 receptions in just 14 games played, which ranked 11th among tight ends. Now a year-and-a-half removed from his surgery, there are reports that he resembles his pre-ACL tear self and offers low-end TE1 potential for the price of a late round flier.”
– Kyle Wachtel (Forensic Fantasy)

Ladarius Green (TE) Chargers

Overall ADP: #160

“Perhaps the obvious choice here, Green gave us a glimpse of his breakout potential with 206 yards and two touchdowns over a three-game span in the second half of last season. Not only is Antonio Gates
another year north of 30, but his production really slowed in the second half last season. With Green’s speed (4.53 forty at combine) and ability to create mismatches, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he emerges as the team’s No. 2 option in the passing game behind wide receiver Keenan Allen
.”
– Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball)

Delanie Walker (TE) Titans

Overall ADP: #219

“Rather surprised to see Walker’s ADP as TE25. The guy caught 60 passes for 571 yards and six touchdowns for the Titans last season with his biggest games coming during the second half. Now Walker will play in Ken Whisenhunt’s TE friendly offense. Even if the number of receptions stays in the same range, look for an improved yards per catch average. Walker is a mid-level TE2 on my list.”
– Ben Standig (CSN Washington)

Garrett Graham (TE) Texans

Overall ADP: #236

“My favorite late TE is Garrett Graham
, who’ll play the versatile role Aaron Hernandez
was in under Bill O’Brien. Graham’s no Hernandez on the field (and thankfully off), but this system paired with mid range bomber Ryan Fitzpatrick
should see him peppered with targets frequently. Delanie Walker
averaged two whole targets per game more with Fitzpatrick under center a season ago. Tight end is really top heavy this year, then has a pretty dynamic fall off. As much as I like guys like Dennis Pitta
and Kyle Rudolph
, they’re unlikely to run real far away from the later round TE options like Graham.”
– Rich Hribar (XN Sports)

Maurice Jones Drew Overrated for 2014-5

Mauric Jones Drew (MJD) signs with Oakland Raiders

Although MJD’s listed atop Oakland’s depth graph, their backfield will take a committee strategy in 2014. We’ve heard it from several neighborhood beat authors. And notably, we’ve heard it from HC Dennis Allen, that acknowledges that there are really few bell cow joggers in the NFL.

Besides  Darren McFadden, Oakland’s backfield consists of the skills of Marcel Reece and Latavius Murray. Reece– an established receiver– will swipe some passing-down work . Murray’s a size/speed freak who’s now healthy after battling injuries last season.

We currently have MJD forecasted for 156 carries.  This truly is among the NFL’s murkier backfields.

Besides, the talent aligning somewhere else on Oakland’s crime doesn’t influence self-confidence. Matt Schaub is coming off conveniently his worst professional season. WRs James Jones, Andre Holmes and Pole Streater will not disperse much defensive interest. And while the O-line included substantial physical bodies in Donald Penn and Austin Howard, they are still enigma at LG and RT.

We advise targeting upside players in the middle rounds of drafts. Now 29, stuck in a timeshare and on maybe the NFL’s worst team, MJD merely does not suit our defintion of upside!

Mauric Jones Drew (MJD) signs with Oakland Raiders

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Percy Harvin is a Fantasy Football Steal in 2014-5

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Percy Harvin is ranked in the early 20s and is being drafted in about the fifth round. Getting Harvin in the fifth would be a steal. We are happy to take him earlier.

Yes, there’s risk. He missed almost all of last year and half of 2012. He spent his first three years in the league with migraine troubles and suspected attitude sickness.

Do you know what eases migraine pain and soothes an irritated attitude? Catching passes from a franchise quarterback and playing for the defending Super Bowl champs.

Harvin has been rehabbing for over a year now. Calvin Johnson missed two games last year.

Let’s put the injury talk to bed. NFL players get hurt.

Some days the same guy grabs an 80 yard touchdown and you get 14 points in a moment. When he doesn’t, you get diddly.

Harvin is a bubble screen guy with the occasional handoff. He goes deep too, but that’s the frosting on the cake. That’s the sprinkles on the frosting if he returns a kick or punt for a touchdown.

In three and a half years with the Minnesota Vikings, Harvin had 280 catches and 107 carries in 54 games, including a nutty 149 touches in 2011. Before he was hurt in 2012, he was an MVP candidate.

The Vikings had Harvin, Adrian Peterson and not much else back then. Seattle has more weapons and will spread the ball around more, which will be good for Harvin’s health and big play chances. If he gets five or six at minimum for the Seahawks, you should get at least 40 or 50 yards.

He will have multiple games with more than one score and well over 100 yards. Double digit fantasy games will be common– 20-30 points will happen a few times.


That puts you easily in the 200 point neighborhood and in the WR top five. I think that’s realistic, not even optimistic. What if he’s everything the Seahawks dream him to be? He has a career year with over 100 catches, 1500 yards and a dozen or more touchdowns. Those are Megatron numbers. That doesn’t sound crazy, does it?

Seattle’s offense is steadily progressing from a conservative “run and trust your defense” strategy to a more balanced one. See how the team has changed from Russell Wilson’s first start to his last. Consider that Marshawn Lynch’s workload will certainly be reduced to keep him fresh for the playoffs. That means more Robert Turbin and Christine Michael, but also more short passing. More Harvin. And if Wilson running and gunning works, they’ll stick with it.

To conclude, do you still think Harvin has a dramatically bigger chance of getting hurt than Julio Jones or Randall Cobb? Will Harvin have more days when he disappears than Jordy Nelson or DeSean Jackson? Are you still worried that Pete Carroll will ride Beast Mode all day and only let Wilson throw on long and third?

Percy Harvin is a top 10 wide receiver. Take him in the third or second round and don’t be afraid. No guts,
no glory!

Fantasy Football WR Sleeper: Andre Holmes

The Raiders do not have a lot of offensive skill. They have some has-beens (QB Matt Schaub, RBs Maurice Jones-Drew, Darren McFadden) which could have one more year in the sunlight; some almost-has-beens (WRs James Jones, Greg Little, Denarius Moore, Rod Streater) that have not had the ability to put all of it together consistently; and a couple hope-to-bes (WRs Juron Criner and Andre Holmes, TE Mychael Rivera) who have shown flashes yet absolutely nothing concrete.

Who stands apart one of the most? Well, the tallest individual, obviously. Which is the 6-4 Holmes.

OK, we’re not actually choosing Holmes merely considering that he’s the tallest, but it’s his elevation that possibly provides him the very best chance of breaking out. The third-year wideout finished sturdy in 2013, publishing 22 catches and 366 yards on 41 targets in the last 5 games. That target counts was 25th in the NFL in that period, and 4 greater than Oakland’s next most-targeted receiver.

Holmes has the dimension and capacity to make plays if he acquires the ball and can hold onto it. The fact he was listed on the first team when Oakland’s initial depth came  out a few days ago is a terrific indicator. Now he just has to hold onto his starting work.

Will Holmes be a WR1 or a WR2 for your fantasy group? Probably not, yet the potential is there for him to be an every-week play. Obtaining him late in your dream draft would certainly be a stroke of genius (he entered the 15th at No. 177 in our most current specialists’ mock).

And unlike real-life football, it’s not a bad thing to have a bunch of sleeper WRs on your fantasy team.

Estimating the Odds for 2015 Super Bowl Matchups

From all the feasible matchups for  the 2015 Superbowl, which is  the most likely to take place on Feb. 1 in the Phoenix desert?

 

Our staff has been studying the odds for 2015 Super Bowl candidate pairings.A lengthy listing has been produced by us, integrating every feasible mix of teams to attempt and predict the future. Nonetheless, all of us recognize that there are a few combos that are  more likely to occur, and may allow the shrewd bettor to place some profitable wagers.

The most likely game is  a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl between the Seattle Seahawks and the Denver Broncos. The Hawks defeated Peyton Manning and the AFC champs in impressive fashion, allowing their defense to set the tone on their way to a 43-8 devastation.

As NFL oddsmakers see this ordeal playing out, the opportunities that these groups meet  in the Big Game for the second year in a row is  about 6-1, the most likely chances of any  combination. Both teams have made some key moves to their lineups this offseason, so it’s clear that this competition is a distinct possibility.

The 2nd likeliest of all the competitions includes these same Seahawks against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. Currently, that competition is about 8-1, in  what unquestionably would be an awesome Superbowl.


Next  on our list, and completing our top 3 NFL wagering favorites, is a potential showdown between two of the best quarterbacks in the game in Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers. So at about 10-1 odds the Broncos will meet the  Packers.

 We have  the San Francisco 49ers to meet the Broncos at about 15-1 odds.For those of you who like teams that begin with B, we would set the Bears versus the Broncos at 45-1! For teams that begin with P, we have the Packers versus the Patriots at 18-1!

Who should be the top draft choice in 2014-5 fantasy football?

 

See: http://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/2532/fantasy-football-who-should-go-first-overall

June 2014 Minicamp Observations for Fantasy Football

 

 

We recommend: http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/fantasy-roto-arcade/first-down–gerhart-one-of-12-believable-takeaways-from-minicamp–otas-135114931.html

NFL Wagering and Money Management

Any kind of sports bettor, expert nfl handicapper and sharp gambler recognize the value of just how money management plays into having a successful period. It’s not all about taking your best NFL picks from a solid nfl handicapper and going for the win. Bankroll administration is important when betting on the NFL, and in this blog post I’ll cover a few finance pointers when counting on the NFL for profits.

You can never have sufficient education and learning on money management and investing or betting on sports. If you can practice good financial discipline in sports betting, you will certainly go a long ways. Just as you would with a sensible financial investment strategy into your 401K, IRA or the securities market and balance your risk. You may use a money manager or financial investment consultant for your investment profile, and the very same for your sports investing, however despite both you personally need to still have an understanding of the fundamentals.

The concept of bankroll management appears very easy and obvious, but numerous nfl gamblers and sports bettors do not get it. Here we cover basic principles to help you.
Even the best market nfl handicapper can enter a rough stretch. Recognizing your limits and recognizing when to take a break will always help.

Rough Patches

If the cash you’re losing is earmarked for buying sports or social sports betting, cash you could afford to lose, then you will not be ruining your finances. Conversely, putting money aside for investing in sporting activities that you can afford to lose will keep you from difficult and awkward financial circumstances.

Just what is your bankroll?

If you establish a $1000 account , assigning a wagering approach based on your comfort level and the number of systems you’ll spend, will aid in maintaining a consistent strategy. Don’t just go for one shot to win big, or lose big. That’s gambling! Diversifying your money on the systems you’ll invest on various wagering or investing possibilities, will help you in the long run. We generally advise using a conventional 1 % money management philosophy, even though others may be much wilder ; just as those Wall Street investors who could invest smaller sized allocations into mutual fund into equities gradually, vs. the recreational investor who might go crazy and go full into an huge investment into the gold futures market.

Bankroll accessibility

You likewise need to have the bankroll where it is available. If you are wagering online, you need to be funding your account prior to betting, making the cash readily available when you need it. And not simply at one sporting activities books and magazine, a number of sports books. Sportsbooks will offer different lines on games, and searching those possibilities to obtain even more return with one sportsbook over another. Having your money spread at a few reliable online sportsbooks will allow you to spend and play with any at anytime.

Sorts of sporting activities spending or wager types

Understanding the various type of sporting activities wagers and sports investments is essential. Never ever simply opt for the one time shot. Know the wagers rules and the appropriate bankroll for that.

Betting longshots indicates having deeper pockets considering that you will have a lower winning percentage with statistical certainty. Other gamblers will need a smaller bankroll given that they can expect a higher winning percentage.

For instance, understanding the basic NFL bet types as spread (ATS), cash lines and totals (over/under), teasers, parlays etc.

Portfolio track record

Treat your NFL betting activities spending as managing an equity financial investment collection (stocks, RRSPs, 401K, and so on), and keep a document of each bet or financial investment in addition to the most essential variables.

With time you’ll find situations where you executed flawlessly, and other areas you did not. For instance, you might discover you made the very best ROI or yield in the NFL preseason versus regular season. Or perhaps better performance with a particular NFL handicapper over another NFL handicapper, or at specific odds and bet sizes.
Keeping a track record of your performance. Record-keeping is as crucial in sports wagering as the bet itself.
You need to keep your documents up to date date with all the pertinent information such as bet dimension, condition of your money in the past and after the game, and wager types (ATS, money line, total amounts, etc.). Recording these crucial portfolio metrics will assist you in identifying the precise size and type of your future bets and assist you in making incremental profits over time!

Bankroll money management and applying it can be tiresome initially, but once you begin doing it, you will know the value it produces in your NFL portfolio, and boosts your profits! 🙂

Start Thinking Like a Professional NFL Bettor Now!


Being an expert handicapper needs full dedication. It’s generally a full time task. It’s not for everyone. Yet that does not indicate that even the casual bettor wouldn’t gain from adopting some qualities that are shared by the best in the business. You may not need to match their proficiency, devotion, and abilities, however knowing how they act and doing the same will improve your bottom line!
One thing the pros do is play the value game. There are point-spreads and total amounts and a lot of folks attempt to ride winners and that’s it. The pros are definitely handicapping the games, but they’re just as obsessed with the movement of lines. One attribute discussed by all leading pros is that they have better value on bets compared to everyone else. You have the Patriots -14 and they have it at -12. You have under 47 and they have under 49.5.

It’s vital to be discerning the winning sides and total amounts– make no mistake. However the pros understand that when they are constantly getting the best value on a wager, they will have an edge that reaps huge returns over time. In order to regularly extract the finest value out of a wager, you have to become expert at knowing line movement.

You additionally have to be aggressive! The huge dogs pull the trigger without concern. They see a team they like at -2, they don’t hang around for it to head to -3. Or if they pick up a total that will certainly be bet up and they like the over, they catch it. They’ll be resting there with over 41 besides bettors in the publi with over 43. Over the long run, that amounts to additional success.

Pros do not emphasize unimportant information. Every little thing they take into accounts applies directly to what a spread or total could be based on. They do not pour over stats and play the quant game. They examine specific match-ups, take into consideration emotional parts of the game, and other things that do not show up in the normal statistics.

Ever notice that near a listing of games at the sportsbook , they have statistics detailed there? You know they would never provide you with data that could possibly offer you a better opportunity to beat them. You could believe that’s wonderful of them to offer you those numbers. Yet that’s because they want you to be preoccupied with pointless stats and figures. The pros look behind the surface and obvious. The understanding they establish doesn’t arise from the stats the book gives you to make use of.

The pros have a situational feel for games. It’s not about having an encyclopedic understanding of team rosters or being able to state where a team ranks in passing defense. Additionally, they do not jump to quick verdicts of teams based on watching one or two games. A casual bettor may watch a game and believe he has a great understanding of both teams. However that game might have been a whole lot worse or far better than the productivity that team generally has.

A great bettor might view a team control a Monday Night Football game. Every person is yapping concerning about how good that team is. So the pro knows whoever they play next week, especially if it’s an ignored kind of team, will certainly have good wagering value. They watch the opening line move in their favor. So they strike late and nail down a great number. And the exact same applies to the team that may have lost a large televised game. Folks will undervalue them because that team’s failure is so fresh on everybody’s mind.

Professional handicappers have a keen understanding of the mental and psychological elements of a football game. They will keep in mind points like Buffalo passing into the endzone late in 4th quarter up 28 points on Cleveland, and then they figure that into their evaluation the next time they play. Cleveland might be pissed off and all set to dish out punishment. Or possibly a team is playing a weak team the week prior to a large game versus a long time competitor and will be emotionally distracted. The pros can notice the psychological assortment of a group, which is never a constant. The pro can anticipate the peaks and valleys.

So, if you can start thinking out of the stat box, and into the psychological and value boxes, you will
definitely improve your bottom line! Maybe one day you will even yourself turn pro!!