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2026-27 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings
Cracking the NFL Betting Code

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With the NFL kicking off on Thursday, here are a few trends bettors should take note of as they finish up their Week 1 capping:
Since 2005, dogs and favorites have been about even when it comes to covering in Week 1. Dogs are slightly better at 112-106 ATS (+1.97 units). However, we see a massive distinction between divisional dogs (47-31 ATS, 60.3%, +14.42 units) and non-division dogs (65-75 ATS, 46.4%, -12.45 units). Divisional dogs perform much better due to the fact that they play each other twice a year and the familiarity levels the playing field and leads to closer games.
Here are the Week 1 Divisional Dogs (X means ff-winners.com AI agrees)
Packers (+3) at Bears
Redskins (+9.5) at Eagles X
Bills (+3) at Jets X
Giants (+7) at Cowboys X
When it comes to totals, Week 1 also provides an edge to the under (118-103, 53.4%, +9.13 units). This is likely for two reasons. First, the public is inclined to bet an Over because they want to see a past-faced, high-scoring game. The sportsbooks know this and will shade numbers to the Over, providing added value and extra free points for contrarian under bettors. Second, the defenses are usually ahead of the offenses this time of year, leading to lower scoring games overall.
If you look at the under in Week 1 when both teams missed the postseason the previous year, the under improves to 52-37 (58.4%, +12.71 units, 14.1% ROI).
Here are the Week 1 unders that fit this system (X means ff-winners.com AI agrees)
Vikings-Falcons Under 47.5
Browns-Titans Under 45.5
Jets-Bills Under 41
Buccaneers-49ers Under 50
Cardinals-Lions Under 47 X
Raiders-Broncos Under 43.5 X
We suggest you track these betting tips (from redzone.me) for a while and see if/how they work:
I. The 20-point rebound:
Teams will rarely play as well or as poorly as they did in their prior games.
What to look for:
1) A matchup of one team that has just lost by 10 points ATS or more
against one that has just won by double digits ATS.
2) The underdog will convert frequently enough in one of these contests to increase your yearly winning percentage. The larger the spread or point disparity, the greater the betting opportunity.
II. The favorite rebound:
This converts often enough that the play is on a prior favorite who was blown
out in their last game and is now an underdog.
A word of caution. Unless a team is playoff-bound, this angle is not as strong at
the end of the season, when some teams are getting ready for the golf course.
III. 3 weeks of embellished production:
Any team that has accumulated total yardage or point totals in two successive weeks that are 30% higher than that team’s average will almost always have a
letdown ATS in their third week.
IV. Streaks:
This is one for those who want to keep it really simple, without much homework.
You’ll make money in the long run betting against teams that have won three in a row, and for those who have lost three in a row.
V. The double home underdog:
Here’s another with little homework needed.
Find a team playing its’ second game in succession
at home that:
a) Lost its previous game, whether an underdog or not; and
b) Is an underdog this week.
VI. Instant angle for a 2nd half wager:
This one involves some quick research towards the end of the
2nd quarter or at half-time. It should only be used for the NFL. It doesn’t happen that often, but is absolutely worth a play when it occurs:
When a double-digit favorite covers in the first half, take the Under in the second half.
Watch some of the greatest NFL quarterbacks of all time make some of the best passes of all time!
Market insights from Josh Appelbaum . . .
The dust has settled on Andrew Luck’s shocking retirement announcement from the NFL. The 29-year-old star quarterback unexpectedly called it quits over the weekend. Luck cited injuries and being “mentally worn down” as the main reasons he hung up the cleats.
Colts’ fans aren’t the only ones who will miss Luck. Bettors will, too.
Luck went 49-34 against the spread (59%), winning +12.52 units with a 14.6% return on investment (according to BetLabsSports.com). This means a $100 spread bettor made $1,252 riding every Luck start throughout his 7-year career.
On the moneyline, Luck went 53-33 (61.6%), winning +21.13 units with a 24.6% ROI. This includes a 17-20 record (45.9%) but +15.65 units as a dog (42.3% ROI).
The fallout from Luck’s retirement has been swift. At Circa Sports, the Colts moved from -180 to make the playoffs to -210 to not make the playoffs. Indianapolis also plummeted from -120 to +350 to win their division, +700 to +2100 to win the AFC and +1500 to +4500 to win the Super Bowl.
Indy’s season win total was adjusted from 9.5 (over -115) to 8 (under -120). In other words, the Colts were expected to go 10-6 or better with Luck and now are likely to go 7-9 or worse with Jacoby Brissett.
How much is Luck worth to the spread? After opening at +3.5 for Week 1 against the Chargers, the Colts are now +7.
Andrew Luck’s decision to retire from football
is a very difficult decision to make at such a young age (29). We wish him and all connected to him strength and God’s Blessings for the future.
How are you supposed to consistently pick games against the pointspread when plays like this can happen!
We are gaining more data on these rookies… Is Mr. Murray too small? I don’t like that he seems to get too deep in the pocket.
The No. 1 overall pick didn’t look like a generational talent against the Raiders. Murray couldn’t get into a rhythm as a playmaker and his clapping at the snap led to a pair of penalties. With the rookie passer also taking two sacks while directing an offense that only mustered 12 yards of total offense during the first four possessions, the Cardinals need to get better play from their QB1.
The intensity around a Superbowl can make one not want to replay it for a while!
Here is your chance to review last year’s defensive classic:
George Kittle is one of the top 3 Tight Ends in Football – along with Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz.
“David Montgomery is the type of running back that head coaches love. He’s someone who always has hit pad-level low when going into contact and he’s always going to fall forward to gain that extra yard. His balance is what allows him to do that, as he has great control of his momentum no matter which way he’s shifting. There was a carry in the game versus Washington State where he spun off one defender, side-stepped the next, and then carried multiple defenders for a seven-yard gain in what should have been a three-yard loss!” — FantasyPros
It is always refreshing to read scientific analysis:
See: http://grantland.com/features/nfl-stats-predicting-success/
He may have had some trouble in the playoffs – but Mr. Manning is one of the great ones!
Hey, Folks. We don’t recommend this strategy. We believe in owning the elite wide receivers!
Still, you might find this interesting….
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