2015 Super Bowl Point Spread : Early Movement (archival article)

The point spread for Super Bowl XLIX moved 3.5 points at MGM Resorts on Sunday night, as the Patriots pulled away from the Colts to secure the AFC title.

The Las Vegas sports book operator, along with many others in town, opened the Seahawks as 2.5-point favorites during the third quarter of New England’s 45-7 victory. By the late fourth quarter, the Pats were the 1-point favorite.

“We opened (Seattle) -2.5, but I knew it was the wrong side, and I just kept dropping it down little by little even though we didn’t get much action on it,” Jay Rood, MGM Resorts VP of race and sports, told The Linemakers’ Micah Roberts. “The more I was thinking about it, the more I thought New England should be favored, and the bulk of the action we took on it — about $10,000 — has been on the Patriots -1.”

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Seattle -2.5, but the shop was dealing the game at a pick ‘em less than a half-hour later, according to assistant manager Jeff Sherman’s Twitter feed.

William Hill U.S. moved to a pick ‘em on Sunday night as well, director of trading Nick Bogdanovich told The Linemakers on Sporting News in a text message. The shop was offering an advanced line of Seattle -3 vs. New England last week.

Super Bowl XLIX is set for Sunday, Feb. 1 in Glendale, Ariz.

That the spread moved immediately in New England’s direction is not a surprise. Early line moves are typically prompted by money from professional bettors. But with Vegas books packed with public bettors for Championship Sunday, the cumulative smaller wagers have a greater impact. Public bettors, of course, tend to base their wagers on what they most-recently witnessed — and that was the Pats blowing out the Colts and the Seahawks coming away with a very fortunate win over the Packers.

“The books want to get to the right number as quickly as they can,” said The Linemakers’ Roberts. “This will be the biggest bet game of the year, where the public has more influence on the number than the wise guys. In most cases with the public, they go by what they saw last, and in this case, it was Seattle struggling at home and committing five turnovers and the Patriots rolling to a blowout win. I think the public will side with the Patriots early on.”

Early wagering on last year’s Super Bowl was similar, as Seattle opened as a short favorite but Denver was bet to a favorite within a few hours on Championship Sunday.

Said Tony Miller at the Golden Nugget, “We haven’t taken any big action on the game yet, just a bunch of guys putting some small parlays on it before they head out of town.”

Miller said he believes Seattle -3 is the proper number, but he adjusted to what he saw in the market.

“With -2s being out there and -1.5 at the Mirage, I opened -2.5 just to be at the highest number, but the (odds) screen is jumping right now,” Miller said. “I’m looking at a few books down to -1 right now, so I’m moving to -2 and I’ll still be high.”

Five minutes later, Miller took a bet large enough (not a limit wager) to drop even further, to -1, to put him in line with most of the other books around town. But the number would continue to drop, and pick ‘em was the consensus line by the time the AFC game ended.

The total opened between 48.5 and 49.5.

On sale: The Wynn is enticing bettors in Vegas with a special offer of -105 vigorish on side bets, exec VP for Race & Sports John Avello told The Linemakers on Sporting News in a text on Sunday night. Gamblers usually have to lay -110.

High bar: Nevada sports books handled a record $119.4 million in wagers on last year’s Super Bowl, which shattered the previous mark of $98.9 set the previous year. They also won $19.6 million, another record.


PODCAST: Week 2 Betting Preview or Fake News?

Seriously, would you trust these folks with your betting dollars?


Do Betting Trends Make You Feel Jumpy?

With the NFL kicking off on Thursday, here are a few trends bettors should take note of as they finish up their Week 1 capping:

Since 2005, dogs and favorites have been about even when it comes to covering in Week 1. Dogs are slightly better at 112-106 ATS (+1.97 units). However, we see a massive distinction between divisional dogs (47-31 ATS, 60.3%, +14.42 units) and non-division dogs (65-75 ATS, 46.4%, -12.45 units). Divisional dogs perform much better due to the fact that they play each other twice a year and the familiarity levels the playing field and leads to closer games.

Here are the Week 1 Divisional Dogs     (X  means ff-winners.com  AI agrees)

Packers (+3) at Bears
Redskins (+9.5) at Eagles      X
Bills (+3) at Jets                      X
Giants (+7) at Cowboys          X

When it comes to totals, Week 1 also provides an edge to the under (118-103, 53.4%, +9.13 units). This is likely for two reasons. First, the public is inclined to bet an Over because they want to see a past-faced, high-scoring game. The sportsbooks know this and will shade numbers to the Over, providing added value and extra free points for contrarian under bettors. Second, the defenses are usually ahead of the offenses this time of year, leading to lower scoring games overall.

If you look at the under in Week 1 when both teams missed the postseason the previous year, the under improves to 52-37 (58.4%, +12.71 units, 14.1% ROI).

Here are the Week 1 unders that fit this system   (X means ff-winners.com AI agrees)

Vikings-Falcons Under 47.5
Browns-Titans Under 45.5
Jets-Bills Under 41
Buccaneers-49ers Under 50
Cardinals-Lions Under 47       X
Raiders-Broncos Under 43.5   X     

WATCH: Every NFL Team’s Best Play of the 2019 Preseason!

Are you ready for some FOOTBALL!!!!!!!!!!!!

CLICK HERE!


Simple NFL Betting Edges – Even Your Kids Can Do It!

We suggest you track these betting tips  (from redzone.me) for a while and see if/how they work:

I. The 20-point rebound:
Teams will rarely play as well or as poorly as they did in their prior games.
What to look for:
1) A matchup of one team that has just lost by 10 points ATS or more
against one that has just won by double digits ATS.
2) The underdog will convert frequently enough in one of these contests to increase your yearly winning percentage. The larger the spread or point disparity, the greater the betting opportunity.

II. The favorite rebound:
This converts often enough that the play is on a prior favorite who was blown
out in their last game and is now an underdog.
A word of caution. Unless a team is playoff-bound, this angle is not as strong at
the end of the season, when some teams are getting ready for the golf course.

III. 3 weeks of embellished production:
Any team that has accumulated total yardage or point totals in two successive weeks that are 30% higher than that team’s average will almost always have a
letdown ATS in their third week.

IV. Streaks:
This is one for those who want to keep it really simple, without much homework.
You’ll make money in the long run betting against teams that have won three in  a row, and for those who have lost three in a row.

V. The double home underdog:
Here’s another with little homework needed.
Find a team playing its’ second game in succession
at home that:
a) Lost its previous game, whether an underdog or not; and
b) Is an underdog this week.

VI. Instant angle for a 2nd half wager:
This one involves some quick research towards the end of the
2nd quarter or at half-time. It should only be used for the NFL. It doesn’t happen that often, but is absolutely worth a play when it occurs:

When a double-digit favorite covers in the first half, take the Under in the second half.   


Fear? Not If You Use NFL PASSES The Right Way!

Watch some of the greatest NFL quarterbacks of all time make some of the best passes of all time!

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Luck Retirement Shakes NFL Betting Markets

Market insights from Josh Appelbaum . . .
The dust has settled on Andrew Luck’s shocking retirement announcement from the NFL. The 29-year-old star quarterback unexpectedly called it quits over the weekend. Luck cited injuries and being “mentally worn down” as the main reasons he hung up the cleats. 

Colts’ fans aren’t the only ones who will miss Luck. Bettors will, too. 

Luck went 49-34 against the spread (59%), winning +12.52 units with a 14.6% return on investment (according to BetLabsSports.com). This means a $100 spread bettor made $1,252 riding every Luck start throughout his 7-year career. 

On the moneyline, Luck went 53-33 (61.6%), winning +21.13 units with a 24.6% ROI. This includes a 17-20 record (45.9%) but +15.65 units as a dog (42.3% ROI).

The fallout from Luck’s retirement has been swift. At Circa Sports, the Colts moved from -180 to make the playoffs to -210 to not make the playoffs. Indianapolis also plummeted from -120 to +350 to win their division, +700 to +2100 to win the AFC and +1500 to +4500 to win the Super Bowl.

Indy’s season win total was adjusted from 9.5 (over -115) to 8 (under -120). In other words, the Colts were expected to go 10-6 or better with Luck and now are likely to go 7-9 or worse with Jacoby Brissett. 

How much is Luck worth to the spread? After opening at +3.5 for Week 1 against the Chargers, the Colts are now +7.


SPEECH: Bad Luck for NFL Fans

Andrew Luck’s decision to retire from football   

is a very difficult decision to make at such a young age (29). We wish him and all connected to him strength and God’s Blessings for the future.


WATCH: Do You Like Your Football “Crazy” and “Whacky”?

How are you  supposed to consistently  pick games against the pointspread when plays like this  can happen!

 

CLICK HERE!


FILM STUDY: Preseason Week 2: QB Kyle Murray: weak, QB Haskins: having some fun

We are gaining more data on these rookies… Is Mr. Murray too small? I don’t like that he seems to get too deep in the pocket.

The No. 1 overall pick didn’t look like a generational talent against the Raiders. Murray couldn’t get into a rhythm as a playmaker and his clapping at the snap led to a pair of penalties. With the rookie passer also taking two sacks while directing an offense that only mustered 12 yards of total offense during the first four possessions, the Cardinals need to get better play from their QB1.

 

Catch Them Here!


Are You Afraid to Review Superbowl 53?

The intensity around a Superbowl can make one not want to replay  it for a while!

Here is your chance to review last  year’s defensive classic:


 

FILM STUDY: Learn a Little From Kittle

George Kittle is one of the top 3 Tight Ends in Football – along with Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz.

Pass to him here!


FILM STUDY: Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins and Kyle Murray Debut

These young men are looking very good! How will they look in midseason?

Catch Them Here!


WATCH: Chicago Bears’ Amazing New Power Back

“David Montgomery is the type of running back that head coaches love. He’s someone who always has hit pad-level low when going into contact and he’s always going to fall forward to gain that extra yard. His balance is what allows him to do that, as he has great control of his momentum no matter which way he’s shifting. There was a carry in the game versus Washington State where he spun off one defender, side-stepped the next, and then carried multiple defenders for a seven-yard gain in what should have been a three-yard loss!” — FantasyPros

Tackle Him Here!


Projections of NFL 2014-5 Numbers

It is always refreshing to read scientific analysis:

 

See: http://grantland.com/features/nfl-stats-predicting-success/

FILM STUDY: The Shocking Truth about Eli Manning

Mr. Manning may have overcome his biggest weakness! How will he do in 2019?

WATCH: The Ultimate Guide To PEYTON MANNING’s TD Passes

  He may have had some trouble in the playoffs – but Mr. Manning is one of the great ones!

CLICK HERE!


FILM STUDY: The RUN-PASS OPTION Mystery Revealed


The RPO is here to stay!

CLICK HERE!


Do You Obey the Fundamental Law of NFL Betting?

There is no “inside info” when it concerns Pro football wagering as the info age has just made it impossible to keep information secret. Once we understand this fact we can consider only one main NFL wagering statistic above all others and that is the pointspread. The oddsmaker is going to base his NFL betting line on just how the public is going to bet. This can offer you valuable insight without doing other work! You can check out the Pro football betting line which side the oddsmaker wants to win. Often that will be the underdog considering that the oddsmaker understands the favorite is usually getting pounded with public money in NFL wagering. This is not always the situation, yet it occurs typically. You could look purely at the pointspread and base your bet on which party the oddsmaker wishes in NFL wagering. Specifically, this will be side of the bet that is drawing least money!

Most impulsive NFL bettors will take the favorite. The main herd of gamblers lose at NFL wagering due to the fact that they decline to think about the underdog at all!. That is a significant mistake. If you really want the best NFL tip it is to behave  like the oddsmaker. Typically the sportsbooks make easy cash with NFL betting so if you could determine what teams they would like to win and then wager those groups, you have a likelihood of gaining consistent  profits in Pro football wagering! Just watch which way the pointspread moves during the week and bet contrary to the movement!

 


 

 

 

What is Zero Wide Receiver Drafting and How Does it Work?

Hey, Folks. We don’t recommend this strategy. We believe in owning the elite wide receivers!
Still, you might find this interesting….