Why Smart Bettors are Flocking to the Buffalo Bills for 2015-6 (archival article)

October 13, 2019 by

 

 

How many games will the Buffalo Bills win this year? Sportsbooks have set the betting line at 8.5.  Surprisingly, our Artificial Intelligence computer Beardog has the Bills ranked 5th behind New England, Seattle, Dallas and Green Bay due to its strong defense.

 

Buffalo has a new coach in Rex Ryan whose unusual formations, blitzes and overall defensive expertise should further strengthen the defense. We project the defensive line to have about 62 sacks this season. Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus and Jerry Hughes are as deadly a unit as any in the NFL. They forced 6 fumbles last year.Last year Buffalo was fourth in yards and points given up. There is absolutely no reason that prowess shouldn’t continue this season.

 

If Tom Brady’s suspension is upheld the Bills and their awesome defense will face a green Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 2. Ralph Wilson Stadium is one of the most difficult stadiums for opposing teams to play in due to the rowdy fans and bitter weather.Most of the Bills strong opponents in the next season will be played at home.

 

Hopefully Rex Ryan is smart enough to not play E.J. Manuel. With Manuel on the bench, Tyrod Taylor or Kyle Orton will be in, thus their quarterback problems should dissipate especially if Taylor plays the first game. But in any event Sammy Watkins is a highly talented receiver who we project to have 70 catches and 1000 yards in 2015.

 

Finally, the running back by committee should keep the backfield healthy for what looks like a productive season. LeSean McCoy, recently acquired from the Philadelphia Eagles, is expected to have  recovered  from a hamstring pull and will be supported by capable veteran Fred Jackson. In addition, the Bills also have Boobie Dixon as well as Karlos Williams the impressive rookie from Florida State. Look for Ryan to pound the ball on the ground, attack with his defense and roll easily to 9 victories or more!

 

Filed Under: Archival, Sports Betting, Team News Tagged With: , , , , , ,

2019 NFL WEEK 6 BETTING NOTES

October 13, 2019 by

Today marks the 6th Sunday of the NFL season. Through five weeks of play, we’ve seen a distinct advantage for underdogs. Dogs have gone 46-32 ATS (59%) according to Bet Labs Sports. A $100 bettor taking each one would be up $1,075. Not too bad. Road dogs have been especially profitable, going 34-18 ATS (65.4%). Divisional dogs have gone 15-9 ATS (62.5%). 

With these trends in mind, let’s take a look at five games receiving heavy smart money on Sunday. 

9:30 a.m. ET: Carolina Panthers (3-2) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3)

Who’s ready for an early morning NFC South London sweat? The Panthers started the season 0-2 with Cam Newton, but have now gone a perfect 3-0 with backup Kyle Allen. The Bucs have been Jekyll and Hyde through five weeks, rotating losses and wins each time out. This game opened with the Bucs listed as short 1-point favorites. Despite receiving just a slight majority of bets, we’ve seen a huge line move to Carolina (+1 to -2.5). Sharps hit the Panthers everywhere from +1 to a pick’em to -1.5. One big advantage to Carolina: Favorites have gone 13-9 ATS in London (59%) since 2003 according. We’ve seen some smart money drop the total from 48.5 to 47.5. Tottenham Stadium is expecting 15 mph winds, an edge to the Under. 

1 p.m. ET: Houston Texans (3-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)

The Chiefs lost their first game of the season last week, falling to the Colts at home 19-13 as 10.5 favorites on Sunday Night Football. The public says Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City are a powerhouse and are due for a big bounce back win and cover at home. But sharps are buying low on the Texans to keep it close. Houston is playing well as of late, winning three of their last four including a 53-32 blowout over the Falcons last week. This line opened with KC listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Despite two thirds of bets backing the Chiefs, the line has fallen all the way to -4. This sharp reverse line movement was caused by pros loading up on the Texans plus the points. Since 2003, dogs receiving at least 2.5-points of reverse line movement have covered 55.7% of the time. Sharps also love this under. The total opened at 55.5 and the public is pounding the Over, yet it’s fallen to 54.5. 

1 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks (4-1) at Cleveland Browns (2-3)

This line has been all over the place. The Browns initially opened as 2.5-point home favorites. The public remembers Cleveland being embarrassed 31-3 by San Francisco on Monday night and wants nothing to do with them. This line opened with Cleveland listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Nearly seven-out-of-ten bets are backing Seattle. This lopsided support caused the line to move to Seattle -2.5. But then sharps hammered the Browns plus the points, causing the line to fall down to a pick’em. Essentially, sharps waited for heavy public betting to move the number bigly to Seattle so they could get extra points with the Browns at home. Teams coming off a 20-point loss or more have covered the next game 54.1% of the time since 2003. Pros have also targeting the under. The total opened at 47 and has been bet down to 46. The Dawg Pound is expecting 15 mph winds.

1 p.m. ET: New Orleans (4-1) at Jacksonville (2-3)

On paper this looks like an easy layup with New Orleans. After all, the Saints are 4-1 and have won three straight. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is 2-3 and just lost to Carolina 34-27. So why on Earth did the oddsmakers open this game as a pick’em? Public bettors are hammering the Saints. But despite New Orleans receiving two thirds of bets, the line has moved to Jacksonville -3. Why would the books continue to hand out additional points to public Saints backers when they’re already on New Orleans to begin with? Because pros have been getting down hard on the Jags, creating big liability for the house and forcing the books to move the number bigly in their favor. An added bonus to the Jags: Jerome Boger is the lead referee. Since 2003, home teams have 55% ATS (+12.96 units) with Boger as the lead official. Smart money has also hit the Under. The total has fallen from 44 to 42.5 since opening.

4:05 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers (4-0) at Los Angeles Rams (3-2)

This late afternoon NFC West showdown is the most popular and heavily bet game of the day. The Rams have lost two straight, including a 30-29 heartbreaker to the Seahawks last Thursday night. The public says Los Angeles is a great team and “due” for a big bounce back win and cover at home. But sharps aren’t buying the conventional wisdom. They’re backing the undefeated 49ers in a rare contrarian road dog spot. The Rams opened as a 4-point home favorite. Two thirds of bets are backing Los Angeles. This heavy betting pushed the line up to 4.5. That’s when you saw wiseguys get down hard on the 49ers, causing the line to fall all the way down to 3. Todd Gurley’s injury was also a factor in the line movement. The stud RB is out with a thigh contusion. The 49ers are contrarian in a heavily bet game and also a road divisional dog (10-5 ATS this season). Pros have also hit the over, pushing the total from 48.5 to 50.5. 

More sharp action

Dolphins +4.5 to +4 vs Redskins
Vikings -3 to -3.5 vs Eagles

Filed Under: NFL Forecasting, Sports Betting Tagged With: , ,

How to Excel at Sports Betting

October 10, 2019 by

Introduction

The world of betting and gambling often draws mixed reactions. The people who bet regularly have all praises for it while those who have not tried or have  not got  had good experience with it, do not vouch for it. However, like any other game or profession, betting too is often more than fun and can  become a serious business.  Read this article and find some useful information on getting started with sports betting.

Getting started

There are different forms of betting. The regular way to bet is to visit a reputed casino like bcasino and play different kinds of card games or similar games and to put your money as bets. However, there are other forms of betting as well. In sports betting, you have to bet on different kind of sports as per the situation and options available for you.  To get started, you have to first select a sport on which you are interested in betting. It is not required to have  any skills to bet. However, it does require skill to make a successful bet – and to do it successfully on a regular basis requires much more than luck or chance. So let’s find out how the world of sports betting works!

Knowledge and grip of the sport

When you have to bet on a sport, you should first of all select a sport. So the next question arises is what kind of sport you should pick? Well you should basically pick a sport on which you have knowledge about. There are hundreds of popular sports in the world and it might be that you are aware of most of them. However in order to do better, you should have a firm grip and grasp on the sport on which you would like to bed.

You might think that you know lots of things about the sport and you can bet on it on any given day. However, there are different factors and refinements that are needed to enhance your knowledge of the sport. Let’s try to understand it with help of an example:

Let us pick up a sport first. If you like to bet on tennis, then you should be a Tennis fan. You might know who is the present world number one in the men’s tennis and you might be aware about lots of other things. But in order to bet, you have to analyze a particular match or a tournament. In case of tennis, if you concentrate on the present situation, the hot bids to  would be on whether Nadal  would overtake Novak Djokovic and end up  also as well number one by the end of the year? Now in order to get this correctly, you have to analyze different factors.

Unbiased analysis

First of all, you should check out the present points difference between the two players. If the difference is too much, then it is unlikely that Nadal is going to over take Djokovic. The next thing that you have to analyze is the schedule of the two players. You should ensure and confirm the kinds of tournaments that they are going to play in the next few months till December. These are the tournaments in which they can gain points.

At the same time, you should be aware about how tennis rankings system works. In some cases, a certain player does not participate in a particular tournament that he has participated last year, then he would lose those points. Another important factor that you have to analyze is the fitness level. If the fitness level of the players is questionable, then it is unlikely that they are going to participate in tournaments and even if they do they are not likely to perform well.

Now as you can understand,  all this analysis is required for knowledge and great understanding of the sport concerned. The same case is with the other sports. 

Learning from experience

Apart from the knowledge of the sport, you should also understand other aspects of a profession. If you would like to become successful in sports betting or any other profession, there is a mental aspect that you also have to deal with. You should know how to deal with the tough times. You should be aware of handling the situation and when things are not working your way. This is the most important thing to learn in life. You should be able to hold your emotions and be patient with results.

If you can survive the tough times, then you can always look back and learn from the past mistakes that you have made and improve  on them.  Maintain this on a regular basis, and grow your experience of the game of the sport of the profession and ultimately you are able to use that experience in future to enhance your gambling or sports betting skills. If you follow these instructions and  learn from your own experience and use your own brain and common sense  when required, you would gradually be able to master the art of sports betting or any other profession for that matter.

Final words

 A final word of advice would be to not rush  things and start betting great amounts of money. This can cause  heavy losses. Until and unless you are sure about your bets, try to start with small amounts and gradually learn from the experience and then increase the betting amounts. In this way, you will develop yourself as a good professional and successful sports bettor.

Filed Under: Sports Betting Tagged With: , ,

The Quickest & Easiest Ways To Winning NFL BETTING

October 3, 2019 by

Using Multiple Sportbooks is a no-brainer for those who care about growing their bottom line. Always shop around for the best odds!

Filed Under: Sports Betting, Videos, Web Resources Tagged With: , , ,

PODCAST: NFL WEEK 5 NFL Betting Preview

October 2, 2019 by

This program gives some pretty strong betting trends and angles. But which ones will continue?

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2019 Thursday Nite Betting Preview: Eagles Versus Packers

September 26, 2019 by

8:20 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-0)

Tuley’s Take on Thursday Night Football . . .
After two Must-Not-See TV games the past two Thursday nights, we get a marquee NFL matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles visiting the Green Bay Packers (8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network).

It has lost some of its luster with the injury-plagued Eagles’ slow start (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS), but QB Carson Wentz wasn’t in a panic in his press conference the other day and I almost expected him to pull an Aaron Rodgers and tell fans to “R-E-L-A-X.” Despite their relative woes, Wentz and the offense is still averaging 25.3 points per game (the Packers only average 19.3) and their losses to the Falcons and Lions both could have been wins (though admittedly they were lucky to escape with a come-from-behind victory over the Redskins in the season-opener).

Still, I still have the Eagles rated as the better team and there’s definite value in getting more than a field goal.

Granted, the Packers are off to a great start (3-0 SU & ATS) and are a 4-point favorites as of Wednesday night after getting bet at high as -5.5 on Monday, but I’m ready to fade them as they’re not as good as their record indicates. I’m especially not buying the narrative that they have a dominant defense (allowing an NFL-best 11.7 points per game) as they benefited from catching the Bears before their offense got in sync and the Vikings would have scored more and beaten them if not for Kirk Cousins’ unforced errors.

While the best bet is on the Eagles +4, I also like Over 46 as both offenses should have success and this total is shaded a little low as Unders are 8-2 so far in NFL primetime games this season (and I’m willing to fade that trend as well).

The play: Eagles +4

 

Filed Under: NFL Forecasting, Sports Betting, Team News Tagged With: , , , , ,

The Best Sports for Betting

September 24, 2019 by

If you are a sports enthusiast who loves to place bets on your favorite teams, you need to consider the following;

  • How many sports to bet on?
  • Which sports to bet on?

It is easier to make decisions if you are a sports fan first then a bettor. You can decide to wager on all of the sports that you are familiar with and love to watch. This approach proves logical since those are the sports that you understand best. It is easier to bet on those sports as it will give you a better opportunity of winning money.

However, it is not easier to make such decisions. It is normal for most people to follow diverse sports, and thus, not certain if they want to bet on them all or just select their favorite. There are others who only follow a single sport, and are therefore not sure if they need to limit themselves to just that one particular sport. There are also those who would like to try their luck in sports betting but rarely follow any sports closely.

Definitely, there are sports that we presume are better, though it may not be everyone’s opinion. Your best sport to bet on might be a terrible option for someone else. Therefore, one should consider a number of factors before you place that bet. You need to consider whether it’s perfect to wager on one sport, several sports, or diverse sports. 

The best sports for betting highly depend on what part of the world one is located. Some sports might be well-known in some regions, but not so favored in others. However, a few sports can be popular with bettors all around the world. In terms of the total number of people who bet on them, some sports definitely rank higher than others, these include soccer, American football, basketball, tennis, boxing, and formula 1. Therefore, you need to consider what’s best for you.

Those sports that regularly attract huge viewing audiences, are also the ones that people wager on the most. The reason why most bettors would consider placing their bets on these sports is that they offer many betting opportunities. Information on such sports is also easily accessible and widely available. Bookmakers also offer lots of betting options for these sports.

How to make the best decisions

The more information you have at your disposal, the better the chances of making good decisions. If you find making money more important to you than having fun, then you need to consider;

  • How much time are you willing to dedicate to your betting?
  • What will give you the best chance of making good money?
  • What are the best betting options?

 

Filed Under: Gambling, Sports Betting Tagged With: ,

How Vegas Views The LeSean McCoy for Kiko Alonso Trade (archival article)

September 16, 2019 by

When ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported Thursday night that the Eagles have agreed to trade All-Pro RB LeSean McCoy to the Bills for LB Kiko Alonso, it came as a major shock to many NFL observers: “How could the Eagles, on the brink of Super Bowl contention, let their best player go?”

But Las Vegas sports books barely blinked. Neither the Westgate LV SuperBook nor MGM Resorts, in fact, made any adjustments to their Super Bowl odds. Station Casinos shortened the Bills from 30-to-1 to 25-to-1 and kept the Eagles at 22-to-1. The only move made at The Wynn was a lengthening of the Eagles’ futures price.

“No movement on Bills – they are already low at 50-1 due to bets,” said Wynn sports book director John Avello. “We can’t go much lower until they show they are a contender. We took Philly from 15-to-1 up to 20-to-1. Who will run the ball for them?”

Right now, those running the ball for Philly are Darren Sproles, Chris Polk and former Oregon Duck Kenjon Barner.

Apparently, McCoy and Eagles coach Chip Kelly’s relationship had soured recently, and as we saw last season with All-Pro WR DeSean Jackson, you either get with Kelly’s program or get out. In this case, Kelly was able to grab another one of his Oregon guys in Alonso — he now has nine former Ducks players on his Eagles roster.

Kelly’s offensive system has proven to be effective with interchangeable parts, and by trading McCoy and earlier releasing DE Trent Cole and CB Cary Williams, Philly is projected to be $48 million under the 2015 salary cap. As great as McCoy has been, the Eagles should be able to find a suitable system back either in the draft or through free-agency.

Among the interesting free-agent RBs available is C.J. Spiller, who now knows he won’t be back with Buffalo. The prized free-agent back is DeMarco Murray, and Kelly could kill two birds with one stone by signing him – fill the void left by McCoy and make the Cowboys weaker within the NFC East.

For the Bills, new coach Rex Ryan has inherited a defense on the brink greatness, and a back like McCoy boosts his chances to compete with the Patriots in the AFC East. The Bills have reportedly also made a trade with the Vikings to acquire QB Matt Cassel.

Bills fans should be excited about 2015, and Eagles fans should trust that Kelly has a plan. After taking over a 4-12 squad, Kelly has gone 10-6 in each of his first two seasons. McCoy’s replacement may not have 2,146 yards from scrimmage like McCoy did in 2013, but the system will produce numbers regardless of who in running the ball.

The best bet is that this trade is a win for both teams.

Filed Under: Archival, Sports Betting Tagged With: , , , , ,

PODCAST: Walter Sharp’s NFL Week 2 Preview!

September 12, 2019 by

This show teaches some of the basics of NFL handicapping that the average bettor has never
been educated on. You can learn a lot from Walter Sharp!

Filed Under: NFL Forecasting, Podcasts, Sports Betting Tagged With: , , , ,

2015 Super Bowl Point Spread : Early Movement (archival article)

September 12, 2019 by

The point spread for Super Bowl XLIX moved 3.5 points at MGM Resorts on Sunday night, as the Patriots pulled away from the Colts to secure the AFC title.

The Las Vegas sports book operator, along with many others in town, opened the Seahawks as 2.5-point favorites during the third quarter of New England’s 45-7 victory. By the late fourth quarter, the Pats were the 1-point favorite.

“We opened (Seattle) -2.5, but I knew it was the wrong side, and I just kept dropping it down little by little even though we didn’t get much action on it,” Jay Rood, MGM Resorts VP of race and sports, told The Linemakers’ Micah Roberts. “The more I was thinking about it, the more I thought New England should be favored, and the bulk of the action we took on it — about $10,000 — has been on the Patriots -1.”

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Seattle -2.5, but the shop was dealing the game at a pick ‘em less than a half-hour later, according to assistant manager Jeff Sherman’s Twitter feed.

William Hill U.S. moved to a pick ‘em on Sunday night as well, director of trading Nick Bogdanovich told The Linemakers on Sporting News in a text message. The shop was offering an advanced line of Seattle -3 vs. New England last week.

Super Bowl XLIX is set for Sunday, Feb. 1 in Glendale, Ariz.

That the spread moved immediately in New England’s direction is not a surprise. Early line moves are typically prompted by money from professional bettors. But with Vegas books packed with public bettors for Championship Sunday, the cumulative smaller wagers have a greater impact. Public bettors, of course, tend to base their wagers on what they most-recently witnessed — and that was the Pats blowing out the Colts and the Seahawks coming away with a very fortunate win over the Packers.

“The books want to get to the right number as quickly as they can,” said The Linemakers’ Roberts. “This will be the biggest bet game of the year, where the public has more influence on the number than the wise guys. In most cases with the public, they go by what they saw last, and in this case, it was Seattle struggling at home and committing five turnovers and the Patriots rolling to a blowout win. I think the public will side with the Patriots early on.”

Early wagering on last year’s Super Bowl was similar, as Seattle opened as a short favorite but Denver was bet to a favorite within a few hours on Championship Sunday.

Said Tony Miller at the Golden Nugget, “We haven’t taken any big action on the game yet, just a bunch of guys putting some small parlays on it before they head out of town.”

Miller said he believes Seattle -3 is the proper number, but he adjusted to what he saw in the market.

“With -2s being out there and -1.5 at the Mirage, I opened -2.5 just to be at the highest number, but the (odds) screen is jumping right now,” Miller said. “I’m looking at a few books down to -1 right now, so I’m moving to -2 and I’ll still be high.”

Five minutes later, Miller took a bet large enough (not a limit wager) to drop even further, to -1, to put him in line with most of the other books around town. But the number would continue to drop, and pick ‘em was the consensus line by the time the AFC game ended.

The total opened between 48.5 and 49.5.

On sale: The Wynn is enticing bettors in Vegas with a special offer of -105 vigorish on side bets, exec VP for Race & Sports John Avello told The Linemakers on Sporting News in a text on Sunday night. Gamblers usually have to lay -110.

High bar: Nevada sports books handled a record $119.4 million in wagers on last year’s Super Bowl, which shattered the previous mark of $98.9 set the previous year. They also won $19.6 million, another record.
Filed Under: Archival, Gambling, NFL Forecasting, Sports Betting Tagged With: , , , , , ,

PODCAST: Week 2 Betting Preview or Fake News?

September 12, 2019 by

Seriously, would you trust these folks with your betting dollars?

Filed Under: Gambling, NFL Forecasting, Podcasts, Sports Betting Tagged With: , , ,

Do Betting Trends Make You Feel Jumpy?

September 4, 2019 by

With the NFL kicking off on Thursday, here are a few trends bettors should take note of as they finish up their Week 1 capping:

Since 2005, dogs and favorites have been about even when it comes to covering in Week 1. Dogs are slightly better at 112-106 ATS (+1.97 units). However, we see a massive distinction between divisional dogs (47-31 ATS, 60.3%, +14.42 units) and non-division dogs (65-75 ATS, 46.4%, -12.45 units). Divisional dogs perform much better due to the fact that they play each other twice a year and the familiarity levels the playing field and leads to closer games.

Here are the Week 1 Divisional Dogs     (X  means ff-winners.com  AI agrees)

Packers (+3) at Bears
Redskins (+9.5) at Eagles      X
Bills (+3) at Jets                      X
Giants (+7) at Cowboys          X

When it comes to totals, Week 1 also provides an edge to the under (118-103, 53.4%, +9.13 units). This is likely for two reasons. First, the public is inclined to bet an Over because they want to see a past-faced, high-scoring game. The sportsbooks know this and will shade numbers to the Over, providing added value and extra free points for contrarian under bettors. Second, the defenses are usually ahead of the offenses this time of year, leading to lower scoring games overall.

If you look at the under in Week 1 when both teams missed the postseason the previous year, the under improves to 52-37 (58.4%, +12.71 units, 14.1% ROI).

Here are the Week 1 unders that fit this system   (X means ff-winners.com AI agrees)

Vikings-Falcons Under 47.5
Browns-Titans Under 45.5
Jets-Bills Under 41
Buccaneers-49ers Under 50
Cardinals-Lions Under 47       X
Raiders-Broncos Under 43.5   X     

Filed Under: NFL Forecasting, Sports Betting Tagged With: ,

Simple NFL Betting Edges – Even Your Kids Can Do It!

August 28, 2019 by

We suggest you track these betting tips  (from redzone.me) for a while and see if/how they work:

I. The 20-point rebound:
Teams will rarely play as well or as poorly as they did in their prior games.
What to look for:
1) A matchup of one team that has just lost by 10 points ATS or more
against one that has just won by double digits ATS.
2) The underdog will convert frequently enough in one of these contests to increase your yearly winning percentage. The larger the spread or point disparity, the greater the betting opportunity.

II. The favorite rebound:
This converts often enough that the play is on a prior favorite who was blown
out in their last game and is now an underdog.
A word of caution. Unless a team is playoff-bound, this angle is not as strong at
the end of the season, when some teams are getting ready for the golf course.

III. 3 weeks of embellished production:
Any team that has accumulated total yardage or point totals in two successive weeks that are 30% higher than that team’s average will almost always have a
letdown ATS in their third week.

IV. Streaks:
This is one for those who want to keep it really simple, without much homework.
You’ll make money in the long run betting against teams that have won three in  a row, and for those who have lost three in a row.

V. The double home underdog:
Here’s another with little homework needed.
Find a team playing its’ second game in succession
at home that:
a) Lost its previous game, whether an underdog or not; and
b) Is an underdog this week.

VI. Instant angle for a 2nd half wager:
This one involves some quick research towards the end of the
2nd quarter or at half-time. It should only be used for the NFL. It doesn’t happen that often, but is absolutely worth a play when it occurs:

When a double-digit favorite covers in the first half, take the Under in the second half.   

Filed Under: NFL Forecasting, Sports Betting Tagged With: , ,

Luck Retirement Shakes NFL Betting Markets

August 26, 2019 by

Market insights from Josh Appelbaum . . .
The dust has settled on Andrew Luck’s shocking retirement announcement from the NFL. The 29-year-old star quarterback unexpectedly called it quits over the weekend. Luck cited injuries and being “mentally worn down” as the main reasons he hung up the cleats. 

Colts’ fans aren’t the only ones who will miss Luck. Bettors will, too. 

Luck went 49-34 against the spread (59%), winning +12.52 units with a 14.6% return on investment (according to BetLabsSports.com). This means a $100 spread bettor made $1,252 riding every Luck start throughout his 7-year career. 

On the moneyline, Luck went 53-33 (61.6%), winning +21.13 units with a 24.6% ROI. This includes a 17-20 record (45.9%) but +15.65 units as a dog (42.3% ROI).

The fallout from Luck’s retirement has been swift. At Circa Sports, the Colts moved from -180 to make the playoffs to -210 to not make the playoffs. Indianapolis also plummeted from -120 to +350 to win their division, +700 to +2100 to win the AFC and +1500 to +4500 to win the Super Bowl.

Indy’s season win total was adjusted from 9.5 (over -115) to 8 (under -120). In other words, the Colts were expected to go 10-6 or better with Luck and now are likely to go 7-9 or worse with Jacoby Brissett. 

How much is Luck worth to the spread? After opening at +3.5 for Week 1 against the Chargers, the Colts are now +7.

Filed Under: Gambling, NFL Forecasting, Quarterbacks, Sports Betting Tagged With: , , ,

Projections of NFL 2014-5 Numbers

August 10, 2019 by

It is always refreshing to read scientific analysis:

 

See: http://grantland.com/features/nfl-stats-predicting-success/

Filed Under: Sports Betting Tagged With: ,

4 Horse Race Betting Tips

August 7, 2019 by

Betting is one of the most common past time activities for people all over the world. As such, people want to ensure that they derive some pleasure from this activity as well as make some money in the process. Horse racing is one of the most common sports that people bet on. This is more so in the United Kingdom and the United States than any other country. One of the reasons why many people watch horse racing is that they place bets on it and the race is exciting because there is a monetary investment at stake. As such, they end up enjoying the thrill of the race as they wait to either win or lose! However, there are many tips that one can follow so that they can win in horse racing bets. 
Here are 4 horse racing tips to help you:

1. Do your homework properly
It is true that thousands of people place bets worth millions of dollars on horse racing. However, among all these, only a small percentage will win. This is because most people do not do research before they place their bets. You should at least throw a cursory glance at the horse racing and betting program to be sure of what you are doing. You should know something about the form guides, also known as the racing guides to help you know the horses that are racing and their related information. Get to know more about the type of track that the horses are racing on. Form guides have many aspects and it would be good that you familiarize yourself with the guides to understand horse racing and horse race betting.

2. Understand the different kinds of bets
There are many types of horse racing wagers. Rather, you can place the various types of bets. You do not have to rely only on the win bets. You need to learn how you can place the various types of bets in a strategic way and benefit from them. Many countries have different wagers and rules that govern horse racing betting.
Learn the different betting systems that are used in horse race betting. There is a fixed -odd system of betting. Here, your winning will be determined by the odds you placed multiplied by the amount you have staked. Then there is the exchange betting. Here, one bets not against a bookmaker but against another person. It is also possible to place multiple horse bets.

3. Shop the odds
This works much better for the people who are placing fixed odd bets. Here, you could get the best value for your money if you can check with many online gambling sites and even the on-course bookmakers to learn the odds they have assigned a specific bet. Here, you will need to choose the odds that give you a better chance of winning.

4. Multiple race betting
This is a better way of increasing your chances of winning. However, one should be a much smarter gambler for them to place bets on many races. Remember that the chances of winning are higher if you stake in more than one race.

Filed Under: Horse Race Betting, Sports Betting Tagged With: ,

NFL Wagering and Money Management

August 4, 2019 by

Any sports bettor, expert nfl handicapper, and sharp gambler recognize the value of just how money management plays into having a successful season. It’s not all about taking your best NFL picks from a solid nfl handicapper and going for the win. Bankroll administration is important when betting on the NFL, and in this blog post I’ll cover a few finance pointers when counting on the NFL for profits.

You can never have sufficient education and learning about money management and investing or betting on sports. If you can practice good financial discipline in sports betting, you will certainly go a long ways. Just as you would with a sensible financial investment strategy in your 401K, IRA or the securities market and balance your risk. You may use a money manager or financial investment consultant for your investment profile, and the very same for your sports investing. However,  both you personally need to still have an understanding of the fundamentals.

The concept of bankroll management appears very easy and obvious, but numerous NFL gamblers and sports bettors do not get it. Here we cover basic principles to help you.
Even the best market nfl handicapper can enter a rough stretch. Recognizing your limits and recognizing when to take a break will always help.

Rough Patches

If the cash you’re losing is earmarked for buying sports or social sports betting, cash you could afford to lose, then you will not be ruining your finances. Conversely, putting money aside for investing in sporting activities that you can afford to lose will keep you from difficult and awkward financial circumstances.

Just what is your bankroll?

If you establish a $1000 account , assigning a wagering approach based on your comfort level and the number of systems you’ll spend, will aid in maintaining a consistent strategy. Don’t just go for one shot to win big, or lose big. That’s gambling! Diversifying your money on the systems you’ll invest on various wagering or investing possibilities, will help you in the long run. We generally advise using a conventional 1 % money management philosophy, even though others may be much wilder ; just as those Wall Street investors who could invest smaller sized allocations into mutual fund into equities gradually, vs. the recreational investor who might go crazy and go full into an huge investment in the gold futures market.

Bankroll accessibility

You likewise need to have the bankroll where it is available. If you are wagering online, you need to be funding your account prior to betting, making the cash readily available when you need it. And not simply at one sportsbook , a number of sportsbooks. Sportsbooks will offer different lines on games, and searching those possibilities to obtain even more return with one sportsbook over another. Having your money spread at a few reliable online sportsbooks will allow you to spend and play at anytime.

Sorts of sporting activities spending or wager types

Understanding the various type of sporting activities wagers and sports investments is essential. Never ever simply opt for the one time shot. Know the wagers rules and the appropriate bankroll for that.

Betting longshots indicates having deeper pockets considering that you will have a lower winning percentage with statistical certainty. Other gamblers will need a smaller bankroll given that they can expect a higher winning percentage.

For instance, understanding the basic NFL bet types as spread (ATS), cash lines and totals (over/under), teasers, parlays etc.

Portfolio track record

Treat your NFL betting activities spending as managing an equity financial investment collection (stocks,  401K, and so on), and keep a document of each bet or financial investment in addition to the most essential variables.

With time you’ll find situations where you executed flawlessly, and other areas you did not. For instance, you might discover you made the very best ROI or yield in the NFL preseason versus regular season. Or perhaps better performance with a particular NFL handicapper over another NFL handicapper, or at specific odds and bet sizes.
Keep a track record of your performance. Record-keeping is as crucial in sports wagering as the bet itself.
You need to keep your documents up to date date with all the pertinent information such as bet dimension, condition of your money in the past and after the game, and wager types (ATS, money line, total amounts, etc.). Recording these crucial portfolio metrics will assist you in identifying the precise size and type of your future bets and assist you in making incremental profits over time!

Bankroll money management and applying it can be tiresome initially, but once you begin doing it, you will know the value it produces in your NFL portfolio, and boost your profits! 🙂

Filed Under: Sports Betting Tagged With: , , ,

Start Thinking Like a Professional NFL Bettor Now!

August 2, 2019 by


Being an expert handicapper needs full dedication. It’s generally a full time task. It’s not for everyone. Yet that does not indicate that even the casual bettor wouldn’t gain from adopting some qualities that are shared by the best in the business. You may not need to match their proficiency, devotion, and abilities, however knowing how they act and doing the same will improve your bottom line!
One thing the pros do is play the value game. There are point-spreads and total amounts and a lot of folks attempt to ride winners and that’s it. The pros are definitely handicapping the games, but they’re just as obsessed with the movement of lines. One attribute discussed by all leading pros is that they have better value on bets compared to everyone else. You have the Patriots -14 and they have it at -12. You have under 47 and they have under 49.5.

It’s vital to be discerning the winning sides and total amounts– make no mistake. However the pros understand that when they are constantly getting the best value on a wager, they will have an edge that reaps huge returns over time. In order to regularly extract the finest value out of a wager, you have to become expert at knowing line movement.

You additionally have to be aggressive! The huge dogs pull the trigger without concern. They see a team they like at -2, they don’t hang around for it to head to -3. Or if they pick up a total that will certainly be bet up and they like the over, they catch it. They’ll be resting there with over 41 besides bettors in the publi with over 43. Over the long run, that amounts to additional success.

Pros do not emphasize unimportant information. Every little thing they take into accounts applies directly to what a spread or total could be based on. They do not pour over stats and play the quant game. They examine specific match-ups, take into consideration emotional parts of the game, and other things that do not show up in the normal statistics.

Ever notice that near a listing of games at the sportsbook , they have statistics detailed there? You know they would never provide you with data that could possibly offer you a better opportunity to beat them. You could believe that’s wonderful of them to offer you those numbers. Yet that’s because they want you to be preoccupied with pointless stats and figures. The pros look behind the surface and obvious. The understanding they establish doesn’t arise from the stats the book gives you to make use of.

The pros have a situational feel for games. It’s not about having an encyclopedic understanding of team rosters or being able to state where a team ranks in passing defense. Additionally, they do not jump to quick verdicts of teams based on watching one or two games. A casual bettor may watch a game and believe he has a great understanding of both teams. However that game might have been a whole lot worse or far better than the productivity that team generally has.

A great bettor might view a team control a Monday Night Football game. Every person is yapping concerning about how good that team is. So the pro knows whoever they play next week, especially if it’s an ignored kind of team, will certainly have good wagering value. They watch the opening line move in their favor. So they strike late and nail down a great number. And the exact same applies to the team that may have lost a large televised game. Folks will undervalue them because that team’s failure is so fresh on everybody’s mind.

Professional handicappers have a keen understanding of the mental and psychological elements of a football game. They will keep in mind points like Buffalo passing into the endzone late in 4th quarter up 28 points on Cleveland, and then they figure that into their evaluation the next time they play. Cleveland might be pissed off and all set to dish out punishment. Or possibly a team is playing a weak team the week prior to a large game versus a long time competitor and will be emotionally distracted. The pros can notice the psychological assortment of a group, which is never a constant. The pro can anticipate the peaks and valleys.

So, if you can start thinking out of the stat box, and into the psychological and value boxes, you will
definitely improve your bottom line! Maybe one day you will even yourself turn pro!!
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Filed Under: Sports Betting Tagged With: , , ,

Shocking NFL Betting System

July 31, 2019 by

When it comes to NFL wagering systems, there is one that stands apart above everything else. The bitter truth, however, is that it typically just offers one play a year, and has actually had many years without a single play.

The system is merely to bet against any NFL team that has scored 30 or more points in two straight games, while permitting 10 or fewer points in its last 2 games and the team is playing a non-divisional opponent. That’s all there is to it.
Considering that since 1989, the system is 15-1, being defeated only in 2008. The record tells you that there aren’t many plays, however you most definitely want to observe when they do occur.

There was just one play in 2012, which was the New York Giants +7 against the 49ers. San Francisco was coming into the game off a 34-0 clunk of the New York Jets and followed that up with a 45-3 pasting of the Buffalo Bills.

The 49ers were never ever in the game against the Giants, getting crushed 26-3!

Filed Under: Football, Sports Betting Tagged With: , ,

Do You Obey the Fundamental Law of NFL Betting?

July 29, 2019 by

There is no “inside info” when it concerns Pro football wagering as the info age has just made it impossible to keep information secret. Once we understand this fact we can consider only one main NFL wagering statistic above all others and that is the pointspread. The oddsmaker is going to base his NFL betting line on just how the public is going to bet. This can offer you valuable insight without doing other work! You can check out the Pro football betting line which side the oddsmaker wants to win. Often that will be the underdog considering that the oddsmaker understands the favorite is usually getting pounded with public money in NFL wagering. This is not always the situation, yet it occurs typically. You could look purely at the pointspread and base your bet on which party the oddsmaker wishes in NFL wagering. Specifically, this will be side of the bet that is drawing least money!

Most impulsive NFL bettors will take the favorite. The main herd of gamblers lose at NFL wagering due to the fact that they decline to think about the underdog at all!. That is a significant mistake. If you really want the best NFL tip it is to behave  like the oddsmaker. Typically the sportsbooks make easy cash with NFL betting so if you could determine what teams they would like to win and then wager those groups, you have a likelihood of gaining consistent  profits in Pro football wagering! Just watch which way the pointspread moves during the week and bet contrary to the movement!

 

 

 

 

Filed Under: Gambling, Sports Betting Tagged With: ,

WEEK 1 is on our radar. Our picks remain unofficial until then.