Introduction to the NFL Over-Under Bet

 

In sports wagering with top sportsbooks, there are  a few bets that are thought  to be routine bets and the over-under is  one of them. The over-under is a straightforward wager where the bettor makes a decision whether the final score of a certain NFL game will be  more than or less than a posted limit. The limit  stands for the sum total points  scored by both teams. Hence, you either bet on the over or the under.

 

The over-under is noted in the following  way with the visiting team first:

Cleveland Browns
o/u 39.5
Denver Broncos

In this game, the over-under is specified with a decimal, which is an impossible  result. That’s done to stay clear of a push, meaning that the overall points for this game will wind up either above or shown below the number posted. If the over-under were 39 or 40, then the teams could possibly wind up with 39 or 40 points. Then there could be a tie and all bets would  be returned.

In our instance if the  total amount is under 40, the under wins, of if more than 39, the over wagers gain the cash. It’s that simple.

In NFL sports wagering, the over-under is not merely chosen out of thin   air. Like the pointspread, moneyline and all other wagers, it’s based on a variety of aspects, including particular statistics related to scoring offense and defense.

Prior to wagering on the over-under check out the pointspread. This will  tell you how close the experts believe the score will be. Compare that to the over-under number! That will provide you a good scenario of just how the scoring is anticipated to go.

In other words, if the pointspread on the game listed above has Denver favored at

-10.5 that would  suggest that the score  when taken into consideration versus the over-under is anticipated to be something like:.

Cleveland 14.5

Denver 25.

These numbers are approximate, yet they offer you a great idea of exactly what 39 total points would certainly resemble if they play out in reality.  If you assume Cleveland  will score less, however Denver will still rack up 25 points, then you may intend to go with the under. Similarly, if after doing your research you think Denver  will certainly score an additional TD and Cleveland will also score at least 14 than you should go with the over bet.

But, what if the pointspread has Cleveland at -3.5? Exactly how would  that appear  with the same over-under?

Cleveland 21.5
Denver  18.

Once more, checking out that probable outcome based on coordinating the pointspread with the over-under, you would ask yourself if the point total for each  team makes sense. If the totals don’t, then based upon your evaluation,  you would choose the appropriate over-under bet.

If you have the ability to make use of all information at your fingertips, using numbers offered by the handicappers, you can fairly  easily determine how exact the over-under might be. Use this device to assist you in making winning bets!


Video Lecture: Computer Power Rankings and Football Analytics

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FF-Winners.com Reveals: Top Wagers for 2018 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year

There’s no question that the 2018 NFL Draft will be defined by the five quarterbacks who were taken in the first round. But, it’s hard for most quarterbacks to see immediate success, given the steep learning curve they face when transitioning from the college game to the NFL.

Given that, who are the favorites to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award after this season? Here are three names to consider:

Ronald Jones (+3300) – They say the best gamblers aren’t so much looking at who’ll win, as much as they are looking for the best value for their wager. If you happen to be among the latter group, then running back Ronald Jones of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers might be right up your alley. Somewhat overlooked as the fifth running back taken in the 2018 NFL Draft, Jones was one of the most explosive running backs in the nation last year, finishing with 1,550 yards and 19 rushing touchdowns (both of which were top 10 among all running backs in college football). Playing within an offense that features skill position guys like Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson (and young talents on the cusp of breaking out, like O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin), there is plenty of space for Jones to gash defenses. It’s just a matter of time before he assumes the full-time job as the Buccaneers’ starting running back.

Sam Darnold (+1600) – Baker Mayfield was the surprise and Josh Allen was the prototype, which led to everyone forgetting the fact that Sam Darnold was the guy that most teams had declared as the best quarterback in the 2018 NFL Draft. The New York Jets – and their fans – should be thanking every religious being of their choosing for the fact that he fell to them at the #3 overall pick, because they might’ve finally solidified the position for the next decade. Darnold’s ability to scramble around the pocket and create big plays by delivering well-time darts down the field makes him eerily reminiscent of a bigger Tony Romo. Anyone paying attention to the happenings in the Tri-State area knows that Darnold looks like he has a stranglehold on the starting quarterback job for the Jets. If he has a good year, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him emerge as a surprise challenger for this award.

Saquon Barkley (+140) – In reality, everyone knows this award is Saquon Barkley’s to lose. The running back with the generational physical talents and well-rounded game is a virtual lock to accumulate at least 250 touches this year (if not substantially more), given the fact that the New York Giants invested the #2 overall pick in the draft on him. At 5’10 and 230lbs, with the strength of a linebacker and the speed of a cornerback, Barkley is like a human cheat code. An accurate comparison that many have made for him, given his talents as a runner and a pass catcher, as well as his size and his strength, is Todd Gurley – that’s the reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year. Without any sense of hyperbole, Barkley possesses that level of talent.


SHOCKING 90% Reliable NFL Betting Edge!

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These “systems” may provide you some excellent  betting ideas this season.   They agree with the principal that “Parity” in the NFL can be exploited by astute bettors. Most of the public and sportswriters “overreact” to recent performance.  By definition, “recent performance” is only a small sample.  Even sadder is all the experts and pundits making bold predictions in the off season when NO football is even being played! If you do “Big Data” computer analysis, you will discover that there are many things about predicting the NFL which are systematic but not always intuitive.

Tips for Betting on Football Underdogs.

Watch this Podcast:

 

 

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The 3 Main Reasons Most Amateur Sports Bettors Lose Money

Does the following scenario sound familiar?

“This guy Archie came into my book on the first week of September and bet about $1k on ten different NFL games. He ended up going 9-1, and turned his $10k into $18k. (n.b. we are ignoring vig for the sake of simple calculations) I knew he would be back though, and sure enough he was there the following week, betting $2k on nine different NFL games and totals. He got hot again, and went 7-2, and his $10k had now grown to $28k in just two weeks. I wasn’t worried though, because the story is always the same with these guys. In week three, he came in with 7 more ‘locks’ and put $4k on each game, only to go 1-6, losing three of the games in the last minute. Frustrated with his bad luck, he put all of his remaining $8k on the Monday Night Under, which busted when the Broncos scored a meaningless touchdown in the final minute. Three weeks after he started, Archie was broke.”

The 3 main reasons amateurs lose money:

          1.   They over bet.

         2.   They vary their bet size dramatically.

         3.    They fail to appreciate the amount of randomness in game outcomes and forecast accuracy.

                (the media contributes to this view by understating the luck factor).

For the correct mathematics:

 

CLICK HERE!

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The Kelly System is designed to maximize your “betting edge” while minimizing your “risk of ruin”.
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What Does the Post-PASPA Gambling Landscape Hold for the United States?

In May of 2018, the US Supreme Court overturned the earlier PASPA ruling that had effectively outlawed any form of sports betting in the country. While there had been some notable exceptions, mostly in illegal form, it was clear that the United States was entering a new era,

As we head towards the end of the year, it’s a good opportunity to reflect on the decision and to assess the pros and cons of legal sports gambling across America.

Early Adopters

It’s fair to say that the PASPA ruling has led to a trickle of developments as opposed to a flood. When America got the go ahead on sports betting, some of the biggest names in the industry made an early move and we saw some gambling floors built in established Las Vegas casinos.

Betting operations also moved to the racetrack and some early sports sponsorship deals were struck between operators and clubs across America. A high profile merger also took place between a well known brand and a US Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) site so there were some early movements in the wake of the decision. To date, only a few states have adopted sports betting and the forecast for growth remains steady rather than spectacular.

A report in November 2018 claimed that in two years, the number of American states allowing sports betting would grow to 24 but is this a good move or are there concerns about the developing situation?

Building the Coffers

One of the clear benefits of introducing sports betting would be the additional revenue that each individual state stands to earn. Back in August of 2018, a report carried out by Oxford University suggested that the industry could provide a $14 billion boost to the US GDP on an annual basis and the performance of the gambling sector in other countries indicates that this is no wild claim.

Over in the UK, reports show that the gambling industry there brings in close to £14 billion annually so, in a country as vast and as populous as the United States, there must be scope to hit the $14 billion mark.

Keeping it Clean

Legalised betting will also help to bring the practise out of the underground and away from the world of criminal activities. The US has its own problems and in other countries where sports betting is outlawed, the criminals find a way to carry on regardless.

Elsewhere, the PASPA ruling has also opened the door for official sports sponsorship and some brands have been quick to adopt this. The NBA and NHL have been lining up betting partners while soccer side the Las Vegas Lights secured a high profile sponsor to bring much needed funds into the club.

The Potential Downsides

When the announcement from the US Supreme Court was made in May, there were some dissenting voices and that’s to be expected. Among the concerns was the issue of gambling addiction which can be evident in other countries while some sports governing bodies felt that legalised sports betting could usher in the spectre of match fixing.

A further concern may be brought to life as the situation develops: As individual states in the US choose to adopt sports betting, there is a school of thought suggesting that those that delay or refuse to allow the practise may see a rise in illegal activities.

There are some points to consider but on the whole, the outlook for sports betting in the United States is a positive one and it will be fascinating to see the situation develop through 2019 and beyond.

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Week 8 NFL Best Bets by Humanoid

Colin is hitting 60 percent this season!

WEEK 1 is on our radar. Our picks remain unofficial until then.