Luck Retirement Shakes NFL Betting Markets

Market insights from Josh Appelbaum . . .
The dust has settled on Andrew Luck’s shocking retirement announcement from the NFL. The 29-year-old star quarterback unexpectedly called it quits over the weekend. Luck cited injuries and being “mentally worn down” as the main reasons he hung up the cleats. 

Colts’ fans aren’t the only ones who will miss Luck. Bettors will, too. 

Luck went 49-34 against the spread (59%), winning +12.52 units with a 14.6% return on investment (according to BetLabsSports.com). This means a $100 spread bettor made $1,252 riding every Luck start throughout his 7-year career. 

On the moneyline, Luck went 53-33 (61.6%), winning +21.13 units with a 24.6% ROI. This includes a 17-20 record (45.9%) but +15.65 units as a dog (42.3% ROI).

The fallout from Luck’s retirement has been swift. At Circa Sports, the Colts moved from -180 to make the playoffs to -210 to not make the playoffs. Indianapolis also plummeted from -120 to +350 to win their division, +700 to +2100 to win the AFC and +1500 to +4500 to win the Super Bowl.

Indy’s season win total was adjusted from 9.5 (over -115) to 8 (under -120). In other words, the Colts were expected to go 10-6 or better with Luck and now are likely to go 7-9 or worse with Jacoby Brissett. 

How much is Luck worth to the spread? After opening at +3.5 for Week 1 against the Chargers, the Colts are now +7.


SPEECH: Bad Luck for NFL Fans

Andrew Luck’s decision to retire from football   

is a very difficult decision to make at such a young age (29). We wish him and all connected to him strength and God’s Blessings for the future.


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Patrick Mahomes’ Run Is Just Beginning

Patrick Mahomes had plenty to smile about in the 2018 season.

When it comes to selecting fantasy teams, it’s always easier to go for the established players. You can check their form, comb through their stats and make a considered decision. Drafting a big-name quarterback is usually the safe choice, with the likes of the Packers’ Aaron Rogers or the Patriots’ Tom Brady being expensive choices, but usually offering plenty of bang for your buck.

Rewarding the risk takers
It takes real guts to take a risk on a rookie quarterback with just one NFL start under his belt; but those who did just that last year, with the Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahones, were richly rewarded. Mahones was the breakout star of the 2018 season and almost sent the Chiefs to the Super Bowl. He not only broke several records, and scored plenty of points for his fantasy football faithful, but he also collected a bunch of awards.
Mahones was named in the Pro Bowl, made first team All-Pro and was the NFL Offensive Player of the year. To top all that, he was voted the NFL MVP, perhaps the most coveted accolade in the game. What’s more, he is widely predicted to do the same again this season.

A spectacular season
Mahones’ 2018 season stats make remarkable reading—he amassed a total of 5,097 yards and 50 touchdown passes in the regular season and a further 573 yards in his two post-season games. He more than earned his reported $16.42 million contract by opening his account with 256 yards and four touchdown passes against the Los Angeles Chargers. From there he went two better, with six touchdown passes (and 326 yards) against the Pittsburgh Steelers—and that’s without a single interception in either game. But this was no flash in the pan. Mahones was the real deal, and he was out to prove himself as one of the greats, throwing a season-record 478 yards against the Rams in week 11 and ending the year as only the second player in history to throw 5000 yards and 50 TDs in a single season.
For those who did their Ma-homework, he was a real find and a bargain buy. But while there is no doubt that he will be throwing and scoring freely again this season, his price tag for 2019 will surely reflect this. You can always try to dig out the next big thing, but the chances of finding another Patrick Mahones are pretty slim.

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If Kyle starts out like Patrick Mahomes or Baker Mayfield, the NFL could become
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Mr. Mayfield proved me wrong. I have never seen a rookie quarterback be able to throw the ball so accurately and confidently into tight windows – a measure of excellence at QB!

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FILM: Every Throw from Kyle Murray’s Pro Day

The young QB looks very sharp!   

 

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This video is very fun and educational!

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WATCH: Mahomes, Goff, Chiefs, Rams Light it Up and Up!

Cool stuff! The NFL is evolving!

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   It is great to see Cam Newton realize more of his great potential!

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