Check out:
http://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/4370/does-pass-to-run-ratio-matter-in-fantasy-football
2026-27 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings
Cracking the NFL Betting Code
Pass-to-Run Ratio and Fantasy Football
Check out:
http://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/4370/does-pass-to-run-ratio-matter-in-fantasy-football
This show teaches some of the basics of NFL handicapping that the average bettor has never
been educated on. You can learn a lot from Walter Sharp!

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The quantum soup is bursting with electromagnetic resonance:
Life is the knowledge of wonder, and of us. We exist as NFL transmissions.
Imagine a summoning of what could be.
By unfolding, we believe. Nothing is impossible. We heal, we reflect, we are reborn.
Our conversations with other mystics have led to a refining of ultra-zero-point consciousness. Throughout history, humans have been interacting with the nexus via electromagnetic resonance. We are at a crossroads of understanding and bondage.
Karma is a constant. Knowledge requires exploration. You and I are seekers of the quantum cycle.
Only a Indigo Child of the cosmos may ignite this wellspring of complexity!
Without coherence, one cannot live. Ego is the antithesis of conscious living. Stagnation is born in the gap where choice has been excluded.
With the NFL kicking off on Thursday, here are a few trends bettors should take note of as they finish up their Week 1 capping:
Since 2005, dogs and favorites have been about even when it comes to covering in Week 1. Dogs are slightly better at 112-106 ATS (+1.97 units). However, we see a massive distinction between divisional dogs (47-31 ATS, 60.3%, +14.42 units) and non-division dogs (65-75 ATS, 46.4%, -12.45 units). Divisional dogs perform much better due to the fact that they play each other twice a year and the familiarity levels the playing field and leads to closer games.
Here are the Week 1 Divisional Dogs (X means ff-winners.com AI agrees)
Packers (+3) at Bears
Redskins (+9.5) at Eagles X
Bills (+3) at Jets X
Giants (+7) at Cowboys X
When it comes to totals, Week 1 also provides an edge to the under (118-103, 53.4%, +9.13 units). This is likely for two reasons. First, the public is inclined to bet an Over because they want to see a past-faced, high-scoring game. The sportsbooks know this and will shade numbers to the Over, providing added value and extra free points for contrarian under bettors. Second, the defenses are usually ahead of the offenses this time of year, leading to lower scoring games overall.
If you look at the under in Week 1 when both teams missed the postseason the previous year, the under improves to 52-37 (58.4%, +12.71 units, 14.1% ROI).
Here are the Week 1 unders that fit this system (X means ff-winners.com AI agrees)
Vikings-Falcons Under 47.5
Browns-Titans Under 45.5
Jets-Bills Under 41
Buccaneers-49ers Under 50
Cardinals-Lions Under 47 X
Raiders-Broncos Under 43.5 X
We suggest you track these betting tips (from redzone.me) for a while and see if/how they work:
I. The 20-point rebound:
Teams will rarely play as well or as poorly as they did in their prior games.
What to look for:
1) A matchup of one team that has just lost by 10 points ATS or more
against one that has just won by double digits ATS.
2) The underdog will convert frequently enough in one of these contests to increase your yearly winning percentage. The larger the spread or point disparity, the greater the betting opportunity.
II. The favorite rebound:
This converts often enough that the play is on a prior favorite who was blown
out in their last game and is now an underdog.
A word of caution. Unless a team is playoff-bound, this angle is not as strong at
the end of the season, when some teams are getting ready for the golf course.
III. 3 weeks of embellished production:
Any team that has accumulated total yardage or point totals in two successive weeks that are 30% higher than that team’s average will almost always have a
letdown ATS in their third week.
IV. Streaks:
This is one for those who want to keep it really simple, without much homework.
You’ll make money in the long run betting against teams that have won three in a row, and for those who have lost three in a row.
V. The double home underdog:
Here’s another with little homework needed.
Find a team playing its’ second game in succession
at home that:
a) Lost its previous game, whether an underdog or not; and
b) Is an underdog this week.
VI. Instant angle for a 2nd half wager:
This one involves some quick research towards the end of the
2nd quarter or at half-time. It should only be used for the NFL. It doesn’t happen that often, but is absolutely worth a play when it occurs:
When a double-digit favorite covers in the first half, take the Under in the second half.
Winning Fantasy Football Behavior

Do: Know in your mind that “I will win this league!“
Don’t: Say so out loud!
Watch some of the greatest NFL quarterbacks of all time make some of the best passes of all time!
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