PODCAST: Walter Sharp’s NFL Week 2 Preview!

This show teaches some of the basics of NFL handicapping that the average bettor has never
been educated on. You can learn a lot from Walter Sharp!

2015 Super Bowl Point Spread : Early Movement (archival article)

The point spread for Super Bowl XLIX moved 3.5 points at MGM Resorts on Sunday night, as the Patriots pulled away from the Colts to secure the AFC title.

The Las Vegas sports book operator, along with many others in town, opened the Seahawks as 2.5-point favorites during the third quarter of New England’s 45-7 victory. By the late fourth quarter, the Pats were the 1-point favorite.

“We opened (Seattle) -2.5, but I knew it was the wrong side, and I just kept dropping it down little by little even though we didn’t get much action on it,” Jay Rood, MGM Resorts VP of race and sports, told The Linemakers’ Micah Roberts. “The more I was thinking about it, the more I thought New England should be favored, and the bulk of the action we took on it — about $10,000 — has been on the Patriots -1.”

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Seattle -2.5, but the shop was dealing the game at a pick ‘em less than a half-hour later, according to assistant manager Jeff Sherman’s Twitter feed.

William Hill U.S. moved to a pick ‘em on Sunday night as well, director of trading Nick Bogdanovich told The Linemakers on Sporting News in a text message. The shop was offering an advanced line of Seattle -3 vs. New England last week.

Super Bowl XLIX is set for Sunday, Feb. 1 in Glendale, Ariz.

That the spread moved immediately in New England’s direction is not a surprise. Early line moves are typically prompted by money from professional bettors. But with Vegas books packed with public bettors for Championship Sunday, the cumulative smaller wagers have a greater impact. Public bettors, of course, tend to base their wagers on what they most-recently witnessed — and that was the Pats blowing out the Colts and the Seahawks coming away with a very fortunate win over the Packers.

“The books want to get to the right number as quickly as they can,” said The Linemakers’ Roberts. “This will be the biggest bet game of the year, where the public has more influence on the number than the wise guys. In most cases with the public, they go by what they saw last, and in this case, it was Seattle struggling at home and committing five turnovers and the Patriots rolling to a blowout win. I think the public will side with the Patriots early on.”

Early wagering on last year’s Super Bowl was similar, as Seattle opened as a short favorite but Denver was bet to a favorite within a few hours on Championship Sunday.

Said Tony Miller at the Golden Nugget, “We haven’t taken any big action on the game yet, just a bunch of guys putting some small parlays on it before they head out of town.”

Miller said he believes Seattle -3 is the proper number, but he adjusted to what he saw in the market.

“With -2s being out there and -1.5 at the Mirage, I opened -2.5 just to be at the highest number, but the (odds) screen is jumping right now,” Miller said. “I’m looking at a few books down to -1 right now, so I’m moving to -2 and I’ll still be high.”

Five minutes later, Miller took a bet large enough (not a limit wager) to drop even further, to -1, to put him in line with most of the other books around town. But the number would continue to drop, and pick ‘em was the consensus line by the time the AFC game ended.

The total opened between 48.5 and 49.5.

On sale: The Wynn is enticing bettors in Vegas with a special offer of -105 vigorish on side bets, exec VP for Race & Sports John Avello told The Linemakers on Sporting News in a text on Sunday night. Gamblers usually have to lay -110.

High bar: Nevada sports books handled a record $119.4 million in wagers on last year’s Super Bowl, which shattered the previous mark of $98.9 set the previous year. They also won $19.6 million, another record.


PODCAST: Week 2 Betting Preview or Fake News?

Seriously, would you trust these folks with your betting dollars?


New Age Message For “Naughty Boy” Antonio Brown (Humor)

The quantum soup is bursting with electromagnetic resonance:
Life is the knowledge of wonder, and of us. We exist as NFL transmissions.
Imagine a summoning of what could be.

By unfolding, we believe. Nothing is impossible. We heal, we reflect, we are reborn.

Our conversations with other mystics have led to a refining of ultra-zero-point consciousness. Throughout history, humans have been interacting with the nexus via electromagnetic resonance. We are at a crossroads of understanding and bondage.

Karma is a constant. Knowledge requires exploration. You and I are seekers of the quantum cycle.

Only a Indigo Child of the cosmos may ignite this wellspring of complexity!

Without coherence, one cannot live. Ego is the antithesis of conscious living. Stagnation is born in the gap where choice has been excluded.


Do Betting Trends Make You Feel Jumpy?

With the NFL kicking off on Thursday, here are a few trends bettors should take note of as they finish up their Week 1 capping:

Since 2005, dogs and favorites have been about even when it comes to covering in Week 1. Dogs are slightly better at 112-106 ATS (+1.97 units). However, we see a massive distinction between divisional dogs (47-31 ATS, 60.3%, +14.42 units) and non-division dogs (65-75 ATS, 46.4%, -12.45 units). Divisional dogs perform much better due to the fact that they play each other twice a year and the familiarity levels the playing field and leads to closer games.

Here are the Week 1 Divisional Dogs     (X  means ff-winners.com  AI agrees)

Packers (+3) at Bears
Redskins (+9.5) at Eagles      X
Bills (+3) at Jets                      X
Giants (+7) at Cowboys          X

When it comes to totals, Week 1 also provides an edge to the under (118-103, 53.4%, +9.13 units). This is likely for two reasons. First, the public is inclined to bet an Over because they want to see a past-faced, high-scoring game. The sportsbooks know this and will shade numbers to the Over, providing added value and extra free points for contrarian under bettors. Second, the defenses are usually ahead of the offenses this time of year, leading to lower scoring games overall.

If you look at the under in Week 1 when both teams missed the postseason the previous year, the under improves to 52-37 (58.4%, +12.71 units, 14.1% ROI).

Here are the Week 1 unders that fit this system   (X means ff-winners.com AI agrees)

Vikings-Falcons Under 47.5
Browns-Titans Under 45.5
Jets-Bills Under 41
Buccaneers-49ers Under 50
Cardinals-Lions Under 47       X
Raiders-Broncos Under 43.5   X     

WATCH: Every NFL Team’s Best Play of the 2019 Preseason!

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Simple NFL Betting Edges – Even Your Kids Can Do It!

We suggest you track these betting tips  (from redzone.me) for a while and see if/how they work:

I. The 20-point rebound:
Teams will rarely play as well or as poorly as they did in their prior games.
What to look for:
1) A matchup of one team that has just lost by 10 points ATS or more
against one that has just won by double digits ATS.
2) The underdog will convert frequently enough in one of these contests to increase your yearly winning percentage. The larger the spread or point disparity, the greater the betting opportunity.

II. The favorite rebound:
This converts often enough that the play is on a prior favorite who was blown
out in their last game and is now an underdog.
A word of caution. Unless a team is playoff-bound, this angle is not as strong at
the end of the season, when some teams are getting ready for the golf course.

III. 3 weeks of embellished production:
Any team that has accumulated total yardage or point totals in two successive weeks that are 30% higher than that team’s average will almost always have a
letdown ATS in their third week.

IV. Streaks:
This is one for those who want to keep it really simple, without much homework.
You’ll make money in the long run betting against teams that have won three in  a row, and for those who have lost three in a row.

V. The double home underdog:
Here’s another with little homework needed.
Find a team playing its’ second game in succession
at home that:
a) Lost its previous game, whether an underdog or not; and
b) Is an underdog this week.

VI. Instant angle for a 2nd half wager:
This one involves some quick research towards the end of the
2nd quarter or at half-time. It should only be used for the NFL. It doesn’t happen that often, but is absolutely worth a play when it occurs:

When a double-digit favorite covers in the first half, take the Under in the second half.   


Winning Fantasy Football Behavior

With the NFL regular season starting a week from Thursday, this weekend  will play host to hundreds of Fantasy Football drafts. These events are the first step to your ultimate glory, however points can easily be lost if you are off your game. Like any other social gathering, there are numerous fakes and conterfakes you need to navigate during your dream draft. The following pointers should  assist you to begin your season on the right foot!

PRE-DRAFT

Do: Brings snacks. Adhere to the standards like chips, crackers and also … that variety that has both chips AND crackers.

Do not: Bring tossed salad. You do not win games with tossed salad!

Do: Respect an additional owner’s personal privacy.

Don’t: Hound an individual about their strategy, or attempt as well to peek at their positions just before the draft. This reeks of anxiety.

Do: Research several degrees of possible draft picks, consisting of studs, sleepers as well as deep sleepers.

Do not: Research only the top 5 rated players in each position. You will certainly not get them all (and if you do, leave your league. The other owners are TOO dumb).

Do: Think about your other fantasy leagues and prospective distinctions in your draft strategy.

Don’t: Talk about your other fantasy leagues. It’s a technically proven fact that the only folks that love a fantasy football league are those that are participating in it!

DURING DRAFT

Do: Have a number of options prepared to pick from prior to when you are “on the clock”.

Do not: Waste time humming as well as hawing over which player  to take. Nobody  will  be thrilled with the amount of thought you’re putting into it.

Do: Accept that if you would like to draft a player, odds are an additional owner does also.

Do not: Angrily yell every time somebody you desired gets selected. You can not draft everyone (unless it’s a one team league, which would be quite… sad!).

Do: Applaud an excellent pick from another  owner.

Don’t: Make ironical remarks or criticize each and every selection that isn’t  yours. Keep in mind, this is supposed to be enjoyable (and you will have to patronize these people throughout the season).

Do: Pay attention to which players have been drafted.

Do not: Take numerous minutes to select a player that was available the previous round. You will certainly be laughed at, and you will deserve it.

Do: Take a couple of opportunities on some lower recognized players you “vibe on”. If it pays off, you’ll feel incredible (even if they’re the only great player on your team).

Don’t: Draft any individual on the Miami Dolphins. (Just joking).

POST DRAFT

Do: Relax. Your team is picked, exactly what’s done is done and also re-thinking every choice will get you nowhere.

Do not: Drop players as quickly as you get home. Playing with the lineup ought to wait up until at,the very least, one game has been played!

Do:   Know in your mind that “I will win this league!

Don’t: Say so out loud!


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Luck Retirement Shakes NFL Betting Markets

Market insights from Josh Appelbaum . . .
The dust has settled on Andrew Luck’s shocking retirement announcement from the NFL. The 29-year-old star quarterback unexpectedly called it quits over the weekend. Luck cited injuries and being “mentally worn down” as the main reasons he hung up the cleats. 

Colts’ fans aren’t the only ones who will miss Luck. Bettors will, too. 

Luck went 49-34 against the spread (59%), winning +12.52 units with a 14.6% return on investment (according to BetLabsSports.com). This means a $100 spread bettor made $1,252 riding every Luck start throughout his 7-year career. 

On the moneyline, Luck went 53-33 (61.6%), winning +21.13 units with a 24.6% ROI. This includes a 17-20 record (45.9%) but +15.65 units as a dog (42.3% ROI).

The fallout from Luck’s retirement has been swift. At Circa Sports, the Colts moved from -180 to make the playoffs to -210 to not make the playoffs. Indianapolis also plummeted from -120 to +350 to win their division, +700 to +2100 to win the AFC and +1500 to +4500 to win the Super Bowl.

Indy’s season win total was adjusted from 9.5 (over -115) to 8 (under -120). In other words, the Colts were expected to go 10-6 or better with Luck and now are likely to go 7-9 or worse with Jacoby Brissett. 

How much is Luck worth to the spread? After opening at +3.5 for Week 1 against the Chargers, the Colts are now +7.