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PODCAST: Do you Like Your Football Silver and Black?

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Fandom Highlights Podcasts Team News  silver podcast football black

 

Avoid The Top 10 Mistakes Made By Beginning OAKLAND RAIDERS!

CLICK HERE!

 


Pass-to-run ratio and fantasy football

Check out:

http://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/4370/does-pass-to-run-ratio-matter-in-fantasy-football


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  • nfl predictions 2019-20

PODCAST: Walter Sharp’s NFL Week 2 Preview!

This show teaches some of the basics of NFL handicapping that the average bettor has never
been educated on. You can learn a lot from Walter Sharp!

2015 Super Bowl Point Spread : Early Movement (archival article)

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Gambling NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  super spread point movement early


 

The point spread for Super Bowl XLIX moved 3.5 points at MGM Resorts on Sunday night, as the Patriots pulled away from the Colts to secure the AFC title.

The Las Vegas sports book operator, along with many others in town, opened the Seahawks as 2.5-point favorites during the third quarter of New England’s 45-7 victory. By the late fourth quarter, the Pats were the 1-point favorite.

“We opened (Seattle) -2.5, but I knew it was the wrong side, and I just kept dropping it down little by little even though we didn’t get much action on it,” Jay Rood, MGM Resorts VP of race and sports, told The Linemakers’ Micah Roberts. “The more I was thinking about it, the more I thought New England should be favored, and the bulk of the action we took on it — about $10,000 — has been on the Patriots -1.”

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Seattle -2.5, but the shop was dealing the game at a pick ‘em less than a half-hour later, according to assistant manager Jeff Sherman’s Twitter feed.

William Hill U.S. moved to a pick ‘em on Sunday night as well, director of trading Nick Bogdanovich told The Linemakers on Sporting News in a text message. The shop was offering an advanced line of Seattle -3 vs. New England last week.

Super Bowl XLIX is set for Sunday, Feb. 1 in Glendale, Ariz.

That the spread moved immediately in New England’s direction is not a surprise. Early line moves are typically prompted by money from professional bettors. But with Vegas books packed with public bettors for Championship Sunday, the cumulative smaller wagers have a greater impact. Public bettors, of course, tend to base their wagers on what they most-recently witnessed — and that was the Pats blowing out the Colts and the Seahawks coming away with a very fortunate win over the Packers.

“The books want to get to the right number as quickly as they can,” said The Linemakers’ Roberts. “This will be the biggest bet game of the year, where the public has more influence on the number than the wise guys. In most cases with the public, they go by what they saw last, and in this case, it was Seattle struggling at home and committing five turnovers and the Patriots rolling to a blowout win. I think the public will side with the Patriots early on.”

Early wagering on last year’s Super Bowl was similar, as Seattle opened as a short favorite but Denver was bet to a favorite within a few hours on Championship Sunday.

Said Tony Miller at the Golden Nugget, “We haven’t taken any big action on the game yet, just a bunch of guys putting some small parlays on it before they head out of town.”

Miller said he believes Seattle -3 is the proper number, but he adjusted to what he saw in the market.

“With -2s being out there and -1.5 at the Mirage, I opened -2.5 just to be at the highest number, but the (odds) screen is jumping right now,” Miller said. “I’m looking at a few books down to -1 right now, so I’m moving to -2 and I’ll still be high.”

Five minutes later, Miller took a bet large enough (not a limit wager) to drop even further, to -1, to put him in line with most of the other books around town. But the number would continue to drop, and pick ‘em was the consensus line by the time the AFC game ended.

The total opened between 48.5 and 49.5.

On sale: The Wynn is enticing bettors in Vegas with a special offer of -105 vigorish on side bets, exec VP for Race & Sports John Avello told The Linemakers on Sporting News in a text on Sunday night. Gamblers usually have to lay -110.

High bar: Nevada sports books handled a record $119.4 million in wagers on last year’s Super Bowl, which shattered the previous mark of $98.9 set the previous year. They also won $19.6 million, another record.

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PODCAST: Week 2 Betting Preview or Fake News?

Seriously, would you trust these folks with your betting dollars?


New Age Message For “Naughty Boy” Antonio Brown

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Humor Motivational New Age Player News  naughty message healing brown antonio   The quantum soup is bursting with electromagnetic resonance:
Life is the knowledge of wonder, and of us. We exist as transmissions.
Imagine a summoning of what could be.

By unfolding, we believe. Nothing is impossible. We heal, we reflect, we are reborn.

Our conversations with other mystics have led to a refining of ultra-zero-point consciousness. Throughout history, humans have been interacting with the nexus via electromagnetic resonance. We are at a crossroads of understanding and bondage.

Karma is a constant. Knowledge requires exploration. You and I are seekers of the quantum cycle.

Only a Indigo Child of the cosmos may ignite this wellspring of complexity!

Without coherence, one cannot live. Ego is the antithesis of conscious living. Stagnation is born in the gap where choice has been excluded.


Do Betting Trends Make You Feel Jumpy?

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  trends betting   With the NFL kicking off on Thursday, here are a few trends bettors should take note of as they finish up their Week 1 capping:

Since 2005, dogs and favorites have been about even when it comes to covering in Week 1. Dogs are slightly better at 112-106 ATS (+1.97 units). However, we see a massive distinction between divisional dogs (47-31 ATS, 60.3%, +14.42 units) and non-division dogs (65-75 ATS, 46.4%, -12.45 units). Divisional dogs perform much better due to the fact that they play each other twice a year and the familiarity levels the playing field and leads to closer games.

Here are the Week 1 Divisional Dogs     (X  means ff-winners.com  AI agrees)

Packers (+3) at Bears
Redskins (+9.5) at Eagles      X
Bills (+3) at Jets                      X
Giants (+7) at Cowboys          X

When it comes to totals, Week 1 also provides an edge to the under (118-103, 53.4%, +9.13 units). This is likely for two reasons. First, the public is inclined to bet an Over because they want to see a past-faced, high-scoring game. The sportsbooks know this and will shade numbers to the Over, providing added value and extra free points for contrarian under bettors. Second, the defenses are usually ahead of the offenses this time of year, leading to lower scoring games overall.

If you look at the under in Week 1 when both teams missed the postseason the previous year, the under improves to 52-37 (58.4%, +12.71 units, 14.1% ROI).

Here are the Week 1 unders that fit this system   (X means ff-winners.com AI agrees)

Vikings-Falcons Under 47.5
Browns-Titans Under 45.5
Jets-Bills Under 41
Buccaneers-49ers Under 50
Cardinals-Lions Under 47       X
Raiders-Broncos Under 43.5   X     

Why Russell Wilson Could be the Key to your Fantasy Football Championship (archival article)

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Fantasy Football Strategy Player News  wilson russell football fantasy could championship

Russell Wilson

1. Average draft position

According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Russell Wilson is coming off the board late in the ninth round and as the No. 15 quarterback. That’s very ridiculous value for a quarterback who finished No. 8 at the position in basic scoring Yahoo leagues for the 2013 season.

Quarterbacks being prepared ahead of Wilson in 2014: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Andrew Luck, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Nick Foles, Jay Cutler, Cam Newton, Tony Romo, Robert Griffin III, Colin Kaepernick and Philip Rivers

Quarterbacks who completed ahead of Wilson in 2013: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Andrew Luck, Philip Rivers and Matthew Stafford

There is an evident perception that Wilson is simply a video game manager, but he still finished No. 8 in quarterback scoring and averaged 1.4 points less per video game than Andrew Luck, who is presently being prepared at the beginning of the 5th round in fantasy drafts. Provided his leading 5 capacity, Wilson provides exceptional value. Load up on receivers and running backs in the early and middle rounds and draft Wilson late.
2. Seahawks’ tendencies

Individuals prefer to explain how often the Seahawks run the sphere as a factor for Wilson being simply a typical fantasy football quarterback. There is some credibility to that. In 2013, the Seahawks were No. 2 in the league with 509 rushing attempts. They were also No. 31 in the NFL with 420 passing efforts. Regardless of those numbers, Wilson was a leading 10 fantasy quarterback in 2013. Now Wilson is in his third season, Marshawn Lynch is getting a bit older and the Seahawks have even more weapons. They also controlled groups in 2013, which trigger them to run the ball more.

It’s not likely the Seahawks will be challenging the Broncos for the majority of passes tried in 2014, however a boost over the 420 pass attempts is likely for Wilson. An increase in pass attempts can be all Wilson requires to go from the No. 8 fantasy quarterback to a top five alternative in 2014.
3. How well he’s played

Seattle’s offense has actually looked dominant since the Super Bowl. Wilson tossed for 200 yards and a pair of touchdowns versus the Broncos. Throughout the preseason, he finished almost 80 percent of his passes, including a dominant display in the 3rd preseason video game where he went 15-for-20 for 202 yards and two goals while scrambling for 23 yards and a goal all in simply over one half of play. If the Seahawks are willing to open the offense, Wilson can control in 2014.
4. Rushing ability

Quarterbacks who can run supply a benefit for fantasy owners. Wilson ran for more than 500 yards and one touchdown a year earlier. A boost in pass efforts would likewise cause a boost in rushing chances for Wilson, who hurried for 3 touchdowns throughout the preseason. Don’t forget about Wilson’s hurrying capability when he begins to slide in your fantasy draft.
5. Percy Harvin

Percy Harvin hardly dipped into all in 2013 till the Super Bowl, in which his effect was obvious. If Harvin is able to stay healthy in 2014, he will certainly have a favorable result on Wilson’s fantasy value. He’s able to make something from nothing in the brief passing game, and Wilson is wise enough to make the most of that.


WATCH: Every NFL Team’s Best Play of the 2019 Preseason!

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Highlights Videos  watch preseason every   Are you ready for some FOOTBALL!!!!!!!!!!!!

CLICK HERE!


Simple NFL Betting Edges – Even Your Kids Can Do It!

2019-20 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings NFL Forecasting Sports Betting  simple edges betting   We suggest you track these betting tips  (from redzone.me) for a while and see if/how they work:

I. The 20-point rebound:
Teams will rarely play as well or as poorly as they did in their prior games.
What to look for:
1) A matchup of one team that has just lost by 10 points ATS or more
against one that has just won by double digits ATS.
2) The underdog will convert frequently enough in one of these contests to increase your yearly
winning percentage. The larger the spread or point disparity, the greater the betting opportunity.

II. The favorite rebound:
This converts often enough that the play is on a prior favorite who was blown
out in their last game and is now an underdog.
A word of caution. Unless a team is playoff-bound, this angle is not as strong at
the end of the season, when some teams are getting ready for the golf course.

III. 3 weeks of embellished production:
Any team that has accumulated total yardage or point totals in two successive weeks
that are 30% higher than that team’s average will almost always have a
letdown ATS in their third week.

IV. Streaks:
This is one for those who want to keep it really simple, without much homework.
You’ll make money in the long run betting against teams that have won three in a row,
and for those who have lost three in a row.

V. The double home underdog:
Here’s another with little homework needed.
Find a team playing its’ second game in succession
at home that:
a) Lost its previous game, whether an underdog or not; and
b) Is an underdog this week.

VI. Instant angle for a 2nd half wager:
This one involves some quick research towards the end of the
2nd quarter or at half-time.
It should only be used for the NFL. It doesn’t happen that often,
but is absolutely worth a play when it occurs.

When a double-digit favorite covers in the first half, take the Under in the second half.