Want To Win Your Fantasy League: Pick These 3 Players!

According to fantasy.usatoday.com:

1. RB David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals
ADP: 110.8 (RB 44)

Do you trust Andre Ellington to stay healthy or handle carries between-the-tackles on a regular basis? Me neither. Especially not at his 40.9 overall ADP (RB 18).

Johnson (6-1, 224 pounds) possesses the better profile for full-time work and inside-the-20 chances. This should be close to an even split in touches, and in this case, it’s best to favor the one who’d pull into the lead for touchdown potential.

He could do all the things blind believers thought Ellington could last year — and he’ll offer that upside at a fraction of the price.

2. WR Pierre Garcon, Washington Redskins
ADP: 98.4 (WR 41)

He led the NFL with 113 catches and 182 targets in 2013 but snared just 68 in 2014 with an inconsistent role.

Heading into 2015, Garcon (pictured) is being moved to the “Z” receiver spot, which would put him in motion more often to take more advantage of his possession abilities.

Even with the risk presented by Robert Griffin III under center, Garcon remains a threat to climb back toward 90 catches, which would provide excellent value for looks as a WR3. Listening, PPR gamers?

3. WR Marvin Jones, Cincinnati Bengals
ADP: 144.3 (WR 58)

Jones missed all of 2014 with foot and ankle problems. But in the previous season, he celebrated a six-pointer 10 times while averaging 14.0 yards per catch.

He’s on average being selected behind names such as Brian Quick, DeVante Parker and Dorial Green-Beckham — who have smaller resumes in less desirable environs. Jones could once again corral double-digit scores from quarterback Andy Dalton.

Guru Reveals: 3 Fantasy Football Steals for 2015-6!

Locating a dream stud in the very early rounds of a draft is an obstacle for no one, however having the ability to divide the wheat from the chaff in the later rounds is a much-needed skill to set up a dream juggernaut.

These are three draft day bargains that are anticipated to go in rounds 10 or later on, as well as if they work out they might have a significant influence on any type of fantasy roster.

Danny Woodhead

Danny Woodhead’s 2014 campaign was stopped when he broke his ankle joint in Week 3, inevitably sidelining him for the rest of the period.

While his 2014 period was nothing except featureless, it’s difficult to write-off what he performed in 2013 when he left New England to join San Diego’s backfield.

During Woodhead’s very first period with the Chargers he finished with 1,034 complete backyards from skirmish, 8 overall touchdowns, and he apprehended 76 of his 86 targets. Only Matt Forte and Jamaal Charles finished the 2013 period with even more targets compared to Woodhead.

Woodhead has actually recovered from his injury as well as prepares to go back to his duty as the Chargers’ change-of-pace back. The enhancement of first-round pick Melvin Gordon isn’t a danger to Woodhead’s fantasy worth, viewing as Gordon will certainly be utilized as an early down back, while Woodhead will certainly be used for passing downs.

Woodhead may not be an every-down back, but he still has the possible to be an useful commodity to any sort of dream roster, especially in PPR layouts. For as economical as he will certainly begin draft day, the incentive much surpasses the threat for this prospective dream sleeper.

Jordan Cameron

Jordan Cameron was hindered with injuries in 2014, leaving many dream lovers disappointed and frustrated, but he now has a chance to recover his standing as one of the leading strict ends in the organization this forthcoming year.

During the offseason, Cameron left Cleveland’s inefficient run-first infraction for Miami, a team with the 12th-most pass efforts in the organization. Miami struggled in red-zone efficiency last period, finishing 21st in the NFL in red-zone touchdowns, which is a big reason why they went out and signed Jordan Cameron. The enhancement of Cameron provides quarterback Ryan Tannehill a large, athletic red-zone target, meanings a bunch of appearances inside the 20 for the 6′ 5″ strict end.

Cameron is two years eliminated from an outstanding 2013 season, where he had 80 catches for over 900 backyards, and took 7 touchdowns. More impressively, he did this with the likes of Jason Campbell, Brandon Weeden, as well as Brian Hoyer at quarterback. With a greater than qualified quarterback in Ryan Tannehill at the helm, Cameron has the chance to go back to his standing as a top-10 fantasy strict end.

Carson Palmer

Carson Palmer has had problem with injuries throughout his career, most recently tearing his left ACL for the 2nd time in 2014. It were reported that Palmer taken into consideration retirement after in 2014’s knee injury.

Palmer’s injury past history and interception troubles are issues that have him forecasted to go quite late in fantasy drafts, yet gambling on him in the final round could possibly pay massive returns.

Palmer has actually completely recovered from ACL surgical treatment and has actually looked wonderful in minicamp. Behind an upgraded offensive line as well as with another year of exposure to Bruce Arians’ infraction, Palmer is primaried to be a practical fantasy quarterback in 2015.

If you leave out the game he left early with his ACL injury, his numbers are among the dream elite. In the five games he played from start to complete, he averaged 18.8 dream issues each game in typical scoring.

There is obviously no guarantee that Palmer will certainly continue to be healthy for an entire 16 video game stretch, however if he does, it’s hard to argue that he will not be a top-10 fantasy quarterback. Make certain Palmer winds up on your roster if your method is to take a few late-round fliers at the quarterback placement.

With an even more compared to qualified quarterback in Ryan Tannehill at the helm, Cameron has the opportunity to return to his condition as a top-10 dream limited end.

Albeit short, Carson Palmer’s 2014 project was quite outstanding while he was on the industry. If you omit the video game he left early with his ACL injury, his numbers are amongst the dream elite. In the 5 video games he played from beginning to finish, he averaged 18.8 fantasy factors per game in common racking up. If you theorize those numbers over an entire 16 game period he would have finished with 300 factors, ranking 5th ideal in the organization.

Winning Fantasy Football Strategy

(from sporting news.com:)

Basics (If you’ve played for a few years, feel free to skip this section)

1. Knowledge is power. You HAVE to know your league’s settings. This is non-negotiable. Know what positions are required (2 QBs? 3 flex? No flex?), know how the scoring is broken down,  know if bonus points are awarded, etc. You can throw a wrench into your season from the very beginning by not understanding your league’s settings.

2. Do your research. You don’t need to know who has what assignment on an A-gap overload zone blitz (is that even a real thing?), but it’s important to know who the starting running back and receivers are for the Jaguars, who some of the backups are in Dallas and Philadelphia, and so on.

3. Personal touch. Make your own rankings. Yahoo!, ESPN, CBS, etc. are all going to have their own set of rankings, but yours may look a lot different — especially when you move beyond the top 30-40 or so. Your rankings will reflect your research and your strategy and will help you have an easier time during the draft.

4. Patience is a virtueDon’t be the person who jumps on a kicker or defense a round or three too early. Not only will you announce yourself as fresh meat, but you could significantly lower your team’s ceiling.

5. Fantasy football “fitbit”. Everyone wants to get his and her steps these days. Use that same mentality in fantasy football. Be active on the wire, consume information, start players who are actually starting on game day. You’ll be surprised what simply being an active owner can do for you even if you had a lackluster draft.

Advanced

1. Pitch selection. One of the most basic things you’ll hear someone say regarding draft strategy is “get as much value as possible”. That’s certainly true, but “value” is such a fluid concept in a draft. At any point, the best value may be that boring, steady vet with the established ceiling and high floor. Sometimes it’s the flashy young player with high risk but an even higher ceiling. The key is knowing when to simply move the chains and when to toss the Hail Mary. Whatever you do, try to avoid “throwaway picks”. That’s not the official term, but you know it when you see it. “Oh, it’s the 12th round, Trent Richardson and his 3.3 yards per carry will come in handy at some point, right?” No! Even late in the draft, you want to avoid wasting picks on players that you know won’t give you anything. If you’re going to take a zero anyway, you might as well swing for the fences.

2. “Last man standing”. In this day of specialization and committees, it can be difficult to sort through backfield pecking orders. It’s one thing if you know that Player A is going to handle early-down work and give way in passing situations or if Player B is a goal-line specialist, but how do you handle a situation like Cleveland or Dallas where multiple backs with similar skillsets are going to be battling for carries? Instead of guessing, just wait and pluck the second or third guy in the competition. Not only are you getting him at a cheaper price, but chances are solid that you’ll end up with the top option. You can also avoid these murky situations altogether, but it’s getting increasingly more difficult to build a team without dipping into these muddled competitions.

3. Stacking. While you shouldn’t necessarily set out to draft excess depth at a position or a number of players with the same bye, you shouldn’t be afraid to build on it if that’s how your draft has unfolded. Quality depth is never a bad thing, and you can usually trade from a surplus. As far as byes are concerned, I’ll reiterate that you shouldn’t go out of your way to have all of your players on one bye week, but sacrificing one automatic loss in exchange for a higher chance at a win in several other weeks isn’t an awful trade.

Fantasy Football Secrets of High Stakes Players

 

 

 

 

 

 

Keep Things Very Simple and You Will Succeed:

1.   Play a top fantasy defense when it is at home.

2.   Play a quarterback when he has high QB Rating and is against a defense that allows high completion percentage.  Make sure his team is the favorite to win the game.

3.   Play wide receivers that are heavy and tall.

4.   Play other wide receivers who have a top ten quarterback throwing to them,  and are targeted often in and out of the red zone.

(5.   Read ff-winners.com   :lol:)

 

 

Top Three Quarterbacks in the 2015 NFL draft

While a lot of teams in the NFL feel like they already have a franchise quarterback to count on, there are going to be teams looking for that type of guy in the 2015 NFL draft. It might not be the most outstanding year for quarterbacks, but there are a few who have an opportunity to become starters rather quickly. Here is a look at who might be able to take a franchise to another level.

Jameis Winston

In his redshirt freshman year, Winston made a name for hiimself as a nationalchampion and a Heisman Trophy winner. However, a lot of people are goingto focus on some of his transgressions off of the field as reasons to doubt his character a little bit. He seems to be maturing quickly, and a lot of mock drafts have him as the number 1 overall pick by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They have been desperately looking for a franchise type of guy, and he certainly has the arm strength and the size to be solid in the NFL.

Marcus Mariota

Like Winston, Mariota goes into the draft with the Heisman Trophy alreaady to his name. He has some people doubting him as well, but that has to do with the type of style he played at the college level. There are some scouts who feel like Oregon made him look better than he actually is. His draft position seems a little bit trickier, but someone in the 1st round is going to take a chance on him. In fact, slipping out of the top 10 seems almost impossible.

Brett Hundley

After the top 2 prospects, there is a chance that we do not see another quarterback drafted until the 3rd round. There are going to be some options for teams at that time, as Bryce Petty and Garrett Grayson could go in that round as well. Hundley just seems like the guy with the most potential right now. He was able to have quite a bit of success at UCLA, and he has the armstrength to compete at the highest level.

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How Vegas Views The LeSean McCoy for Kiko Alonso Trade

When ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported Thursday night that the Eagles have agreed to trade All-Pro RB LeSean McCoy to the Bills for LB Kiko Alonso, it came as a major shock to many NFL observers: “How could the Eagles, on the brink of Super Bowl contention, let their best player go?”

But Las Vegas sports books barely blinked. Neither the Westgate LV SuperBook nor MGM Resorts, in fact, made any adjustments to their Super Bowl odds. Station Casinos shortened the Bills from 30-to-1 to 25-to-1 and kept the Eagles at 22-to-1. The only move made at The Wynn was a lengthening of the Eagles’ futures price.

“No movement on Bills – they are already low at 50-1 due to bets,” said Wynn sports book director John Avello. “We can’t go much lower until they show they are a contender. We took Philly from 15-to-1 up to 20-to-1. Who will run the ball for them?”

Right now, those running the ball for Philly are Darren Sproles, Chris Polk and former Oregon Duck Kenjon Barner.

Apparently, McCoy and Eagles coach Chip Kelly’s relationship had soured recently, and as we saw last season with All-Pro WR DeSean Jackson, you either get with Kelly’s program or get out. In this case, Kelly was able to grab another one of his Oregon guys in Alonso — he now has nine former Ducks players on his Eagles roster.

Kelly’s offensive system has proven to be effective with interchangeable parts, and by trading McCoy and earlier releasing DE Trent Cole and CB Cary Williams, Philly is projected to be $48 million under the 2015 salary cap. As great as McCoy has been, the Eagles should be able to find a suitable system back either in the draft or through free-agency.

Among the interesting free-agent RBs available is C.J. Spiller, who now knows he won’t be back with Buffalo. The prized free-agent back is DeMarco Murray, and Kelly could kill two birds with one stone by signing him – fill the void left by McCoy and make the Cowboys weaker within the NFC East.

For the Bills, new coach Rex Ryan has inherited a defense on the brink greatness, and a back like McCoy boosts his chances to compete with the Patriots in the AFC East. The Bills have reportedly also made a trade with the Vikings to acquire QB Matt Cassel.

Bills fans should be excited about 2015, and Eagles fans should trust that Kelly has a plan. After taking over a 4-12 squad, Kelly has gone 10-6 in each of his first two seasons. McCoy’s replacement may not have 2,146 yards from scrimmage like McCoy did in 2013, but the system will produce numbers regardless of who in running the ball.

The best bet is that this trade is a win for both teams.

Pass-to-run ratio and fantasy football

Check out:

http://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/4370/does-pass-to-run-ratio-matter-in-fantasy-football

2015 Super Bowl Point Spread : Early Movement

The point spread for Super Bowl XLIX moved 3.5 points at MGM Resorts on Sunday night, as the Patriots pulled away from the Colts to secure the AFC title.

The Las Vegas sports book operator, along with many others in town, opened the Seahawks as 2.5-point favorites during the third quarter of New England’s 45-7 victory. By the late fourth quarter, the Pats were the 1-point favorite.

“We opened (Seattle) -2.5, but I knew it was the wrong side, and I just kept dropping it down little by little even though we didn’t get much action on it,” Jay Rood, MGM Resorts VP of race and sports, told The Linemakers’ Micah Roberts. “The more I was thinking about it, the more I thought New England should be favored, and the bulk of the action we took on it — about $10,000 — has been on the Patriots -1.”

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Seattle -2.5, but the shop was dealing the game at a pick ‘em less than a half-hour later, according to assistant manager Jeff Sherman’s Twitter feed.

William Hill U.S. moved to a pick ‘em on Sunday night as well, director of trading Nick Bogdanovich told The Linemakers on Sporting News in a text message. The shop was offering an advanced line of Seattle -3 vs. New England last week.

Super Bowl XLIX is set for Sunday, Feb. 1 in Glendale, Ariz.

That the spread moved immediately in New England’s direction is not a surprise. Early line moves are typically prompted by money from professional bettors. But with Vegas books packed with public bettors for Championship Sunday, the cumulative smaller wagers have a greater impact. Public bettors, of course, tend to base their wagers on what they most-recently witnessed — and that was the Pats blowing out the Colts and the Seahawks coming away with a very fortunate win over the Packers.

“The books want to get to the right number as quickly as they can,” said The Linemakers’ Roberts. “This will be the biggest bet game of the year, where the public has more influence on the number than the wise guys. In most cases with the public, they go by what they saw last, and in this case, it was Seattle struggling at home and committing five turnovers and the Patriots rolling to a blowout win. I think the public will side with the Patriots early on.”

Early wagering on last year’s Super Bowl was similar, as Seattle opened as a short favorite but Denver was bet to a favorite within a few hours on Championship Sunday.

Said Tony Miller at the Golden Nugget, “We haven’t taken any big action on the game yet, just a bunch of guys putting some small parlays on it before they head out of town.”

Miller said he believes Seattle -3 is the proper number, but he adjusted to what he saw in the market.

“With -2s being out there and -1.5 at the Mirage, I opened -2.5 just to be at the highest number, but the (odds) screen is jumping right now,” Miller said. “I’m looking at a few books down to -1 right now, so I’m moving to -2 and I’ll still be high.”

Five minutes later, Miller took a bet large enough (not a limit wager) to drop even further, to -1, to put him in line with most of the other books around town. But the number would continue to drop, and pick ‘em was the consensus line by the time the AFC game ended.

The total opened between 48.5 and 49.5.

On sale: The Wynn is enticing bettors in Vegas with a special offer of -105 vigorish on side bets, exec VP for Race & Sports John Avello told The Linemakers on Sporting News in a text on Sunday night. Gamblers usually have to lay -110.

High bar: Nevada sports books handled a record $119.4 million in wagers on last year’s Super Bowl, which shattered the previous mark of $98.9 set the previous year. They also won $19.6 million, another record.


NBA betting lines and picks – Heavy hoops action on Dr. King’s day

By Craig Williams, Sporting News


AccuScore’s NBA Pick of the Day – 76ers at Wizards

By Rohit Ghosh for AccuScore, Sporting News


Mixed bag of results for Vegas books on Championship Sunday

By Micah Roberts, Sporting News


Who will start at QB for Ohio State next season? Here are mock odds

By Marcus DiNitto, Sporting News

 

2015-6 Super Bowl Odds Posted

Futures wagering on Super Bowl 50, set for Sunday, Feb. 7 in Santa Clara, Calif., is open in Las Vegas, and three of this season’s final four teams sit atop the odds board at the Westgate SuperBook.

The Seahawks (5-to-1 odds), Patriots (6-to-1) and Packers (7-to-1) open as the top three betting choices, while the Colts – this season’s other semifinalist – is tied for sixth at 16-to-1.

The Eagles, also at 16-to-1, have the shortest odds to win Super Bowl 50 of any team that missed this season’s playoffs.

The Broncos and Cowboys – both eliminated in the divisional round last weekend – open at 8-to-1 and 12-to-1, respectively.

The 49ers are 25-to-1 to win the Super Bowl in their home, Levi’s Stadium.

While it may seem early for odds to be posted on next season’s championship, bookmakers don’t worry too much about seismic shifts in balance due to the draft or free agency.  In the NBA, a move like LeBron James’ from Miami to Cleveland has a dramatic impact on futures prices .  Such a dynamic does not occur in the NFL.

“You’ll rarely find a rookie who will make a huge impact on the futures,” SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay told The Linemakers’ Micah Roberts. “Usually in the NFL, it takes multiple trades, multiple additions in the free-agent market to adjust the futures – but it will happen.”

ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL 50, SANTA CLARA, CALIF., FEB. 7, 2016
SEAHAWKS 5-1
PATRIOTS 6-1
PACKERS 7-1
BRONCOS 8-1
COWBOYS 12-1
EAGLES 16-1
COLTS 16-1
LIONS 25-1
SAINTS 25-1
RAMS 25-1
49ERS 25-1
CARDINALS 25-1
STEELERS 25-1
RAVENS 25-1
BENGALS 25-1
TEXANS 30-1
CHARGERS 30-1
CHIEFS 30-1
GIANTS 30-1
PANTHERS 30-1
FALCONS 30-1
DOLPHINS 30-1
BEARS 50-1
VIKINGS 50-1
BILLS 50-1
BROWNS 50-1
REDSKINS 100-1
JETS 100-1
BUCS 200-1
TITANS 300-1
JAGUARS 300-1
RAIDERS 300-1

Week 7 NFL Betting Trends

1. Andy Reid-coached teams are 10-5 against the number (66.7 percent) and 13-2 straight-up (86.7 percent) in the first game after the bye.

2. The Patriots are 5-3-1 against the spread (62.5 percent) and 7-2 straight-up (77.8 percent) on Thursdays in Bill Belichick’s tenure.

3. Since 1978, teams coming off a tie are 16-18 against the number (47.1 percent) and 13-21 straight-up (38.2 percent) in the next game.

4. Since Kurt Warner retired after the 2009 season, Ken Whisenhunt-coached teams are 22-30-2 against the spread (42.3 percent). In the previous 54-game span, Whisenhunt-led teams were 30-23-1 vs. the number (56.6 percent).

5. The Ravens are 40-5 straight-up (88.9 percent) and 25-19-1 against the number (56.8 percent) at home under John Harbaugh.