NFL Guru’s Betting Notebook Exposed!

Inside this secret black book we uncovered some real gems!

1. “Since 2005, road underdogs with a losing record have covered the spread at a shocking 55.5% clip from 2005 to 2019!”

2. “In Week 1, non-playoff teams cover the spread at an amazing 65% rate when facing off against a team who made the playoffs the year prior.”

3. “When a team loses a game by more than 21 points, they cover the spread the following week at a 59% rate since 2005”.

4. “From 2000 to 2018, an NFL team that rushes for 30-plus yards more than their opponent covers the spread at an almost unbelievable 75% rate.” (The difficulty with applying this statistic to your betting strategy is that you can’t rely (necessarily) on past data, but rather, you must predict how the rushing yards will play out for each team.)

5. “From 2003 to 2018, teams that have a winning percentage of .800 or better after Week 12 have a 43.6% win rate against the spread.” Thus, underdogs in these situations are a particularly profitable play.

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FF-Winners.Com Reacts: Tom “Milkshake” Brady Goes to the Buccaneers

With Brady joining the Bucs, Tampa Bay now has better Super Bowl odds than New England. The Westgate moved the Bucs from + 4000 to + 1400 and dropped the Patriots from + 1400 to + 3000.

Jeff Sherman of the Westgate told the Las Vegas Review-Journal “We didn’t want to be too aggressive on them as long as Belichick is there… The year Brady was out they won 11 games with Matt Cassel. We trust more in Belichick’s system than Brady at his age right now.”

Circa Sports moved the Patriots win total from 9 (over -120) to 8.5 (even -110 both sides). Their odds to win the AFC dropped from + 625 to + 1200. The Patriots remain slight favorites to win the AFC East, falling from -278 to -125 at DraftKings. The Bills improve from + 325 to + 175. Jets move from + 1200 to + 900 and Dolphins move from + 1600 to + 1000.

Folks, this is a very interesting development. Fortunately, we can gain insight from our industry-leading AI Power Rankings. The interpretation might surprise you:

Tampa Bay has the 4th Strongest Offense in all of football at 28.0 points per game. While  this would seem to be an exciting position  for Brady, we doubt he can maintain this production compared to Jameis Winston the previous QB.

Tampa Bay has the third worst defense in the NFL, giving up 30 points a game. By Brady producing many fewer turnovers this should improve dramatically.

The Bucs were 7-9 last year, we look for a 9-7  record in 2020, which might make the now 7-team per conference playoffs.

New England has the number 1 defense in the NFL, giving up just 10.8 points per game.

Their offense is just rated 10th, at 25.1 points per game.   We doubt the loss of Brady will change these numbers dramatically.   Look for the 12-4 Patriots to go 10-6 in 2020, making the playoffs once again.

For more opinion, CLICK HERE!

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NFL betting is fun and really not very complicated. If you have any questions,  just ask us at  customerservice@ff-winners.com.

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Christian “Nitro” McCaffrey (born June 7, 1996) is an American football running back for the Carolina Panthers of the National Football League (NFL). He played college football at Stanford, and was drafted by the Panthers with the eighth overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. As a sophomore in 2015, McCaffrey was the AP College Football Player of the Year and the runner-up for the Heisman Trophy. He holds the NCAA record for most all-purpose yards in a season with 3,864. McCaffrey holds numerous NFL and Carolina Panthers franchise records and is a member of the 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving in a season club.


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Guru’s NBA Betting System Has Finally Been Revealed!

“Yesterday, we  saw the Lakers upset the Clippers 112-103 as 2.5-point dogs. The important takeaway, however, was the total. It opened at 227.5, closed at 226.5 and landed on 115, easily cashing the under. Historically, when two elite teams go head-to-head the under has been a smart bet. This is likely due to an added emphasis on defense, a more competitive effort and also a heavier-than-usual public bias toward betting the other between two great teams.

When two teams with 60% win percentages or higher face off the under is 974-797 (55%) since 2005 according to Bet Labs Sports. If the total falls by at least one point (a sign of sharp action), the elite team under improves to 57%.

The trend is even better if the elite teams come from the same division. This is due to built in familiarity. Each team knows what to expect from the other, specifically when it comes to game planning and defending. When two elite teams face off from the same division, the under is 195-135 (59%) since 2005. “

–Josh Appelbaum 2020

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Don’t Bet Parlays! Do This Instead!

By Josh Appelbaum (VSiN.com)

“Parlay Patz,” a 23-year-old sports bettor from New York, was charged on Wednesday with “transmitting threats in interstate or foreign commerce” by the Justice Department. Benjamin Tucker Patz’s sports betting renown emerged over the last year for cashing in on a series of massive parlays totaling more than a half-million dollars. But now he is in deep trouble for allegedly making violent online threats to college and pro players who struck out or missed shots and caused him to lose bets. If convicted, Patz would face up to 5 years in prison.

The first and most obvious takeaway is that this kind of behavior is totally unacceptable and, worst of all, criminal. If you’ve been betting sports long enough, you know that tough losses are part of the game. Bad bets can be crushing, but that’s no excuse for threatening players who fail to come through for you in the clutch.

The second takeaway has to do with parlays themselves. Public bettors love betting parlays because they represent the ultimate get-rich-quick money grab. By combining multiple bets into one, you can quickly turn $10 into $100 or $100 into $1000. However, parlays are dangerous and considered the penny slot of sports betting: highly attractive but also a big loser for the bettor and big winner for the house. As I detail in my book The Everything Guide to Sports Betting, the average hold on an individual bet is about 5% according to the Nevada Gaming Control Board. However, the average hold on a parlay is closer to 30%. This means the house makes a killing off parlays.

It’s hard enough to win one bet, so the more bets you layer on the more risk you assume. A better approach is to employ flat betting. This means betting each game individually and only risking one unit and 3% of your bankroll per play. Think of it this way: if you have a 5-team parlay and you go 4-1, you lose the entire parlay. But if you bet all five games individually and go 4-1 you win roughly three units.

If you want to bet a parlay every once in a while, all the power to you. Just don’t make it your most common form of betting. You are playing right into the sportsbook’s hands. Also, reading about “Parlay Patz” makes you think betting parlays can be a huge success. But how many losses did Patz suffer in order to cash his big hits?

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