“Yesterday, we  saw the Lakers upset the Clippers 112-103 as 2.5-point dogs. The important takeaway, however, was the total. It opened at 227.5, closed at 226.5 and landed on 115, easily cashing the under. Historically, when two elite teams go head-to-head the under has been a smart bet. This is likely due to an added emphasis on defense, a more competitive effort and also a heavier-than-usual public bias toward betting the other between two great teams.

When two teams with 60% win percentages or higher face off the under is 974-797 (55%) since 2005 according to Bet Labs Sports. If the total falls by at least one point (a sign of sharp action), the elite team under improves to 57%.

The trend is even better if the elite teams come from the same division. This is due to built in familiarity. Each team knows what to expect from the other, specifically when it comes to game planning and defending. When two elite teams face off from the same division, the under is 195-135 (59%) since 2005. “

–Josh Appelbaum 2020