VIDEO: When NFL = National Football Luck

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Football games Videos  video national football

From crazy fumbles to impossible finshes, these are some of the luckiest plays in NFL History.

Shocking Video Footage Reveals Fantasy Football RB Sleeper

The Saints traded away next year’s second-round pick to get Alvin Kamara in the third round of this year’s draft.

Source link: http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news/saints-alvin-kamara-emerging-as-prime-fantasy-football-prospect-fantasy-football/kgomiunpw42v15mk9oztdrmti

Fantasy Football: Don’t Buy Into The Hype of the Rookie Runners

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Fantasy Football Strategy  runners rookie football fantasy  Who knew that fantasy football could be so complicated? Up to thirty running backs selected in the 2017 NFL Draft season are expected to make a noticeable impact in fantasy football in the immediate future, and you can only imagine what that will do for the NFL betting picks for the 2018 season.

Rookies like Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette, and Joe Mixon were selected in the first fifteen rounds of the ten-team NFL.Com draft. If that wasn’t enough, there is no end to the level of hype analysts are raising over Jamaal Williams, Kareem Hunt and Joe Williams.

It is hardly surprising that everyone expects depth charts to be dominated by these youngsters and more. And you would be hard-pressed to make a solid argument suggesting that this hype isn’t warranted.

Then again, does it make sense to overvalue players that haven’t even run a lap on an NFL gridiron? And it isn’t like this sort of hype has produced notable results in the past. Prognostications about rookies, especially the optimistic kind, rarely end well. Just look at DeMarco Murray. Everyone thought that his time with the Tennessee Titans was over after Derrick Henry, a Heisman winner was drafted. Murray went on to dominate that season.

If that sounds like it could be an isolated case, consider this; of all the rookie runners that have risen in the last decade, only two dozen have appeared in the top 25 in fantasy points. If those numbers do not make sense to you, that means only three rookie runners a year ranked in the top 25.

Whenever the draft season comes around and the hype surrounding rookies begins to rise, analysts and fans like to throw out names like Matt Forte, Chris Johnson and Jonathan Stewart from 2008. Those guys made it to the top 10 and it was a big deal. But one cannot ignore the fact that Rashard Mendenhall, Jamaal Charles and other high profile runners performed well below expectations.

Looking at the 2012 class, you can point to Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, and Alfred Morris as standouts. However, anyone who is anyone knows that 2012 didn’t have many talented options. The point is this: every rule has a few exceptions, and it seems a like a lot of analysts and fans in fantasy football are making their picks based on the exceptions instead of the rule.

Think about this. There have been 108 running backs in the NFL that have been selected in the first four rounds of the football draft over the previous decade. And among those running backs, only twenty-one have ever finished in the top 10.

Think about how demoralizing that figure should be, and then ask why rookie running backs are still being overvalued today.

Some rationale should be applied during the draft. And do not use the anxiety spreading online about rookie runners as an excuse to avoid rookie runners. That isn’t the take away here. The point here is this: be smart. Do not overreach for rookies. There are picks like Mixon that, while clearly impressive, should be saved for the third and the fourth rounds rather than the second. You do not want to miss on a player in the top fifty.

So, be smart.

2017 NFL Football Futures Odds For Winning Super Bowl LII!

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Sports Betting  winning super futures football  Right after the New England Patriots were crowned once more as the Super Bowl champions, oddsmakers were busy at work determining the futures odds for winning Super Bowl LII. Of course, you can probably guess at which teams are the early favorites without too much trouble, but where do you place other teams? This year’s season hasn’t even started but already there are those making their NFL betting picks according to SkyBook a top online sportsbook.

 

While it’s too early to even take a wild guess at which teams can make it all the way to the Super Bowl, based on the odds it might not be too bad of an idea of laying down some money right now while the odds may be soft. In case you’re wondering here are Super Bowl LII odds as they stand right now:

 

ODDS TO WIN SUPERBOWL LII – ALL IN       

 

ARIZONA CARDINALS  +2800

ATLANTA FALCONS       +1000

BALTIMORE RAVENS   +3500

BUFFALO BILLS              +8000

CAROLINA PANTHERS +2500

CINCINNATI BENGALS +4000

CLEVELAND BROWNS  +20000

DALLAS COWBOYS         +900

DENVER BRONCOS         +1400

DETROIT LIONS                +3500

GREEN BAY PACKERS    +1000

HOUSTON TEXANS          +1600

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS   +2800

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +8000

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS          +2000

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +5000

LOS ANGELES RAMS             +12000

MIAMI DOLPHINS                 +4500

MINNESOTA VIKINGS         +2800

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +250

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +3500

NEW YORK GIANTS  +1800

NEW YORK JETS       +20000

OAKLAND RAIDERS +1000

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES  +4000

PITTSBURGH STEELERS  +1200

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS    +15000

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS        +1000

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS   +3000

TENNESSEE TITANS                +5000

WASHINGTON REDSKINS    +5000

 

See anything you like? At +3500 (a $100 bet bags you $3.500 bucks if the team wins), perhaps you  like the New Orleans Saints. Ditto goes for the Kansas City Chiefs. Of course, you could go for the long shot and place a bet on the the New York Jets at +20000 or perhaps the San Francisco 49ers at +15000. But maybe you think the Patriots will make it once more, in which case you’d only see $250 for your $100.

 

Then again, it’s not over till the fat lady sings and every team has a shot at being this year’s champs, so might as well get your bets in early before the odds change ! 

OMG! NFL Wagering and College Football Wagering are Not The Same!

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Sports Betting Uncategorized  wagering football college

 

There are at least a half-dozen factors that separate college football betting from NFL betting. For starters, action on college football is much more likely to come from sophisticated bettors, known as “sharps” or “wiseguys”, who often possess some insight or kernel of information that may provide them with an edge against the house. Experienced bet takers know not to treat heavy activity on an obscure game, such as East Carolina versus Wake Forest, as casually as they might deal with increased wagering interest on a marquee NFL game such as a Redskins-Cowboys confrontation. For that reason, bookmakers usually move college football betting lines quickly, often one full point at a time. In general, it takes more money to move an NFL betting line(for example, NFL betting at Skybook ) and when it is moved, usually it is by only half a point.

Largely because of a lack of proficiency in the kicking game, key numbers such as 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14 are not nearly as sacrosanct in college football betting as they are in the NFL. College football games just do not fall on those numbers as often as they do in NFL contests.

We may never again see a three-touchdown favorite in the NFL but lines of -30, -40, or even -50 are not that uncommon in the college gridiron game. Oddsmakers and bookmakers also find college totals more difficult to gauge because some coaches try to impress those who have a vote in the polls by running up the score. Others, feel that a third-string player’s reward for practicing all week is to get to play in a blowout. It’s just these types of unique uncertainties that compel bookmakers to shift college “over/under” numbers more quickly than they move NFL totals.

It’s also the nature of college football that personnel change every year. This makes early season evaluation more difficult and leads bet takers to move lines and totals more quickly, especially in September and early October when the season is still young. There is personnel movement in the NFL too, of course, but mostly it involves players of established ability moving from team to team. In college football, you’re always dealing with fresh faces.

By collective bargaining agreement, each week, the NFL publishes a comprehensive list of injured players and their status. Sure, there are mistakes and abuses and players who have been listed as “doubtful” have played while those regarded as “probable” have not but overall, the list is accurate. On the other hand, colleges are under no obligation to announce the status of injured or disciplined football players. This vagueness over availability sometimes can create opportunities in college football betting. Consequently, bookmakers are wary if too much wagering attention is paid to one team.

When it comes to parlay card numbers, you are much more apt to see a slight gap between those prices printed on cards and those posted on the board in the NFL than you are in college football. The key element is that bookmakers can more accurately predict the public inclination for an NFL game than they can for a college football game. It’s not unusual then for traditionally popular team such as Dallas or a “hot” team such as Oakland, to be listed as a 7 1/2-point favorite on a parlay card but just a 6 1/2 or 7-point choice on the board. Through experience, bookmakers know that “public” teams such as the Cowboys, as well as “now” teams such as the Raiders, will be more aggressively played on parlay cards than they are straight up.

Clearly, understanding the differences between college football betting and NFL betting is essential to winning.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN COLLEGE AND PRO FOOTBALL:

College Football:

‘Wiseguys’ frequently supply the action

College football betting lines often are moved by a full point at a time

Key numbers are not as important

Personnel changes can make early season analysis difficult

Information on injuries is not always accessible

There’s usually not a disparity between parlay card and board numbers

NFL:

Money from public is prevalent

Betting lines are usually moved by a half-point at a time

Key numbers are VERY important

Personnel changes are less volatile and easier to evaluate

Information on injuries usually is accessible

Parlay card numbers sometimes are intentionally different than prices on the board.

Crazed Idiots are Overrating these Fantasy Football Players!

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Player News  these overrating idiots football fantasy drew brees crazed

WR1 Emmanuel Sanders
, Denver Broncos

Sanders is coming off a beast period and also has a lots of skill. Still, he’s being ranked right around the WR15 port. My trouble below is that Peyton Manning
is visibly decreasing as well as the Broncos have actually made it clear they’re transitioning to an even more run oriented infraction this period. Of all the people on this team, Sanders has the greatest prospective to make me look dumb. Nonetheless, I required him to see a significant autumn in dream production in 2015. In fact I pretty much anticipate every person on the Denver crime to take a huge step back.

RB2 Jonathan Stewart
, Carolina Panthers

Stewart is basically right there with Spiller as a low-end RB2 in 10-team leagues. First and foremost, he hasn’t already remained healthy and balanced in four years. Over the previous three periods he’s missed out on 20 games. He hasn’t hurried for 810 yards or 5 TDs considering that 2009. What worldwide is making people think that this person is about to make some sort of significant resurgence? It’s not like he has a ton of PPR worth either; he only caught greater than 25 passes as soon as in his whole job. If you want to prepare a Panthers’ running back, get hold of Cameron Artis-Payne
concerning 90 choices later on. He’s a better value pick.

WR2 Sammy Watkins
, Buffalo Expenses

Watkins remains in a truly bad situation this period. Drafting him as a mid-level WR2 could be a catastrophe. Not simply is he going over offseason hip surgical treatment however his group isn’t really doing him any kind of supports. The Bills got LeSean McCoy
and also Rex Ryan has made it clear they wish to run the round concerning 40 times a game, and also knowing Ryan, that’s possibly just a mild exaggeration.

On the off opportunity the Bills do decide to throw the ball, their quarterbacks could be the worst in the league. Matt Cassel
is the expected starter and also his weaknesses reduce the effects of Watkin’s best toughness. If E.J. Manuel
wins the task, he might have a hard time to get Watkins the round deep or brief. With so couple of passes to walk around, Buffalo has a bunch of mouths to feed. They added Percy Harvin
, Charles Clay
and McCoy, while F-Jax as well as Robert Forest
will likely still play a considerable part. Points don’t look good for Watkins or any one of the Expenses’ receivers.

WR3 Amari Cooper
, Oakland Raiders

I truly like Cooper and also assume he’ll be a superstar in the future. The Raiders merely aren’t there yet. If you could possibly get him as a flex option, I enjoy it. Nonetheless, he’s being placed as a WR3 and prepared as a WR2. That’s merely way excessive. Also, as long as I trust my capability to review ability, that the Raiders selected him does startle me a bit. Derek Carr
and also Cooper will grow into a strong duo, I just assume it’s going to take a while for the youthful pair to establish.

TE1 Josh Hill
, New Orleans Saints

Zach Ertz
scares me also but Hillside perplexes me a lot more. He’s being drafted as a TE1. Do individuals truly believe that he could simply pointer in and also do exactly what Jimmy Graham
did? Very few TEs in the history of the organization have installed the numbers Graham has. Not only that, Drew Brees
is decreasing and also the Saints are one more group transitioning to a run-heavy crime. Hill is totally unverified, and also it’s extremely risky to simply prepare him as your leading TE and anticipate him to make also remotely close Graham. If you want to roll the dice on a man with 20 occupation functions as your starter, you’re a larger risk taker than me.

QB1 Tony Romo
, Dallas Cowboys

Romo is usually being drafted and ranked as a low-end QB1 in 12-team organizations. There are a variety of problems I have with this. One, Romo is coming off an MVP caliber period and also only completed 2014 as the No. 11 dream quarterback. It’s unlikely he has a much better period in 2015 than he did last year. He lost DeMarco Murray
, which took a ton of pressure off Romo, as well as the Cowboys made minimal effort to replace him. The team still intends to release a solid run strike with a lackluster committee.

Additionally, Dez Bryant
is intimidating to sit out normal season games and at finest will most likely be disgruntled. His most trusted target Jason Witten
will be one more year older and also will likely continue to decline at 33. In addition to all that, Romo is still a 35-year-old quarterback with a history of severe back problems. Pass on Romo this period, he’s unworthy the price.

RB1 C.J. Spiller
, New Orleans Saints

He is being prepared as a low-end RB2 as well as is being rated as the RB20 generally. Spiller has actually been nothing but unsatisfactory in spite of a couple of huge video games in one period 3 years ago. He couldn’t vanquish Fred Jackson
in Buffalo and also has actually struggled to remain healthy. Individuals are projecting him to be some kind of PPR star, nonetheless, individuals fall short to realize that he’s not a great pass-catcher. His brightest minutes began brings when he was able to get around the edge. He is as well frail to be knocked between the deals with and struggles as a receiver. His hands are subpar and his path running is even worse. Do not compose Spiller in hopes of getting an additional Darren Sproles
. All you’ll be obtaining is an additional C.J. Spiller
.

Guru Reveals: 3 Fantasy Football Steals for 2015-6!

2020-21 NFL Computer Predictions and Rankings Football Player News  week 15 steals reveals football fantasy

Locating a dream stud in the very early rounds of a draft is an obstacle for no one, however having the ability to divide the wheat from the chaff in the later rounds is a much-needed skill to set up a dream juggernaut.

These are three draft day bargains that are anticipated to go in rounds 10 or later on, as well as if they work out they might have a significant influence on any type of fantasy roster.

Danny Woodhead

Danny Woodhead’s 2014 campaign was stopped when he broke his ankle joint in Week 3, inevitably sidelining him for the rest of the period.

While his 2014 period was nothing except featureless, it’s difficult to write-off what he performed in 2013 when he left New England to join San Diego’s backfield.

During Woodhead’s very first period with the Chargers he finished with 1,034 complete backyards from skirmish, 8 overall touchdowns, and he apprehended 76 of his 86 targets. Only Matt Forte and Jamaal Charles finished the 2013 period with even more targets compared to Woodhead.

Woodhead has actually recovered from his injury as well as prepares to go back to his duty as the Chargers’ change-of-pace back. The enhancement of first-round pick Melvin Gordon isn’t a danger to Woodhead’s fantasy worth, viewing as Gordon will certainly be utilized as an early down back, while Woodhead will certainly be used for passing downs.

Woodhead may not be an every-down back, but he still has the possible to be an useful commodity to any sort of dream roster, especially in PPR layouts. For as economical as he will certainly begin draft day, the incentive much surpasses the threat for this prospective dream sleeper.

Jordan Cameron

Jordan Cameron was hindered with injuries in 2014, leaving many dream lovers disappointed and frustrated, but he now has a chance to recover his standing as one of the leading strict ends in the organization this forthcoming year.

During the offseason, Cameron left Cleveland’s inefficient run-first infraction for Miami, a team with the 12th-most pass efforts in the organization. Miami struggled in red-zone efficiency last period, finishing 21st in the NFL in red-zone touchdowns, which is a big reason why they went out and signed Jordan Cameron. The enhancement of Cameron provides quarterback Ryan Tannehill a large, athletic red-zone target, meanings a bunch of appearances inside the 20 for the 6′ 5″ strict end.

Cameron is two years eliminated from an outstanding 2013 season, where he had 80 catches for over 900 backyards, and took 7 touchdowns. More impressively, he did this with the likes of Jason Campbell, Brandon Weeden, as well as Brian Hoyer at quarterback. With a greater than qualified quarterback in Ryan Tannehill at the helm, Cameron has the chance to go back to his standing as a top-10 fantasy strict end.

Carson Palmer

Carson Palmer has had problem with injuries throughout his career, most recently tearing his left ACL for the 2nd time in 2014. It were reported that Palmer taken into consideration retirement after in 2014’s knee injury.

Palmer’s injury past history and interception troubles are issues that have him forecasted to go quite late in fantasy drafts, yet gambling on him in the final round could possibly pay massive returns.

Palmer has actually completely recovered from ACL surgical treatment and has actually looked wonderful in minicamp. Behind an upgraded offensive line as well as with another year of exposure to Bruce Arians’ infraction, Palmer is primaried to be a practical fantasy quarterback in 2015.

If you leave out the game he left early with his ACL injury, his numbers are among the dream elite. In the five games he played from start to complete, he averaged 18.8 dream issues each game in typical scoring.

There is obviously no guarantee that Palmer will certainly continue to be healthy for an entire 16 video game stretch, however if he does, it’s hard to argue that he will not be a top-10 fantasy quarterback. Make certain Palmer winds up on your roster if your method is to take a few late-round fliers at the quarterback placement.

With an even more compared to qualified quarterback in Ryan Tannehill at the helm, Cameron has the opportunity to return to his condition as a top-10 dream limited end.

Albeit short, Carson Palmer’s 2014 project was quite outstanding while he was on the industry. If you omit the video game he left early with his ACL injury, his numbers are amongst the dream elite. In the 5 video games he played from beginning to finish, he averaged 18.8 fantasy factors per game in common racking up. If you theorize those numbers over an entire 16 game period he would have finished with 300 factors, ranking 5th ideal in the organization.