BETTING PREVIEW: Thurs. Night 10/28/2020: Falcons at Panthers: Smackdown!

VSIN:

Both of these NFC South rivals are below .500 and desperate for a victory. It’s been a putrid season for the Falcons. Atlanta has already changed coaches and is coming off a heartbreaking 23-22 last-second loss to the Lions last week, losing straight up as 1-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Panthers are riding a two-game losing skid and just fell to the Saints 27-24, although they managed to keep it close and cover as 7-point road dogs. This Thursday Night showdown opened with Carolina listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public wants nothing to do with the listless Falcons and Average Joes are all over the Panthers at home. However, despite two-thirds of bets laying the points, we’ve seen this line fall from Carolina -3 to -2.5. Some books are even down to 2. This sharp reverse line movement signals clear wiseguy action on the Falcons, who are the unpopular play tonight but still see the line move in their favor. Atlanta has value as a contrarian dog in a heavily bet primetime game and a buy-low bad ATS team (ATL 2-5 ATS) against a good ATS team (CAR 4-3 ATS). Atlanta is also a divisional dog and short road dog + 6 or less (27-12, 69% ATS this season). Keep an eye on the weather here. We’re looking at 10-15 MPH winds, which would benefit the under. The total opened 51 and dropped to 49 before rising back to 51. Essentially all liability has been under, despite the public hammering the over.

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