“Silent circuits hum—
winter winds shift the outcome,
numbers whisper truth.”
The NFL IChing Matrix: A Mystical Dance of Probability and Prediction
In the ancient art of divination, the I Ching—The Book of Changes—has long been revered as a mystical guide to the unfolding of fate through patterns and permutations. We bring that timeless wisdom to the gridiron with the NFL IChing Matrix, a fusion of mathematics, probability, and football insight.
What is the NFL IChing Matrix?
Imagine every NFL game as a triad of outcomes—did the home team win? Did they cover the spread? Did the total points go over the line? Each of these is a binary event: yes or no. Combine them, and you have (2^3 = 8) possible outcome patterns, each a unique “hexagram” in our modern oracle.
The NFL IChing Matrix is an (8 by 8) mystical grid, where each row represents the predicted outcome pattern, and each column represents the actual outcome pattern. Each cell in this matrix reveals the probability that a predicted pattern corresponds to an actual pattern, illuminating the strengths, weaknesses, and hidden rhythms of your prediction model.
Why is this matrix so powerful?
- Mathematical elegance: It captures the joint distribution of complex, intertwined outcomes beyond simple win/loss.
- Mystical insight: Just as the ancient I Ching reveals the flow of change, this matrix reveals how your model’s predictions flow into reality—where it shines and where it stumbles.
- Practical use: By studying this matrix, you can identify which outcome combinations your model predicts well and which need refinement, guiding smarter betting and model improvements.
How can you use it?
- Evaluate model accuracy: See how often your predictions hit the mark exactly.
- Diagnose prediction errors: Understand which outcome combinations are confused.
- Calibrate probabilities: Adjust your model to better reflect real-world results.
- Enhance betting strategies: Focus on bets where your model has proven strength.
Step into the realm where football meets fortune, and let the NFL IChing Matrix be your guide through the ever-changing tides of the game!
BELOW IS THE MATRIX (AFTER 21 WEEKS)THIS SEASON.
The MOST IMPORTANT THING TO KNOW: The results (distribution) in the BOTTOM ROW does NOT DEPEND on the predictions (individual rows) – but give the EXACT GAMES RESULTS for the 25-26 season (except Superbowl60 to come) – for ALL bettors. Thus, Naively one might predict the Superbowl 60 outcome to be [1,1,1] 22.9% of the time. In fact, 5 out of 12 (41.7%) playoff games so far this year have ended [1,1,1].
Outc_000 Outc_001 Outc_010 Outc_011 Outc_100 Outc_101 Outc_110 Outc_111 Row Total
Pred_000 0.030 0.042 0.008 0.017 0.004 0.004 0.021 0.047 0.174
Pred_001 0.030 0.017 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.017 0.013 0.085
Pred_010 0.008 0.021 0.013 0.017 0.000 0.000 0.025 0.021 0.106
Pred_011 0.030 0.013 0.004 0.008 0.004 0.000 0.017 0.008 0.085
Pred_100 0.038 0.034 0.000 0.000 0.017 0.004 0.042 0.055 0.191
Pred_101 0.013 0.021 0.000 0.000 0.017 0.000 0.025 0.025 0.102
Pred_110 0.004 0.025 0.000 0.000 0.008 0.013 0.042 0.030 0.123
Pred_111 0.034 0.017 0.000 0.004 0.004 0.021 0.025 0.030 0.136
Col Total 0.186 0.191 0.034 0.047 0.055 0.042 0.216 0.229 1.000