“Silent circuits hum—
winter winds shift the outcome,
numbers whisper truth.”
The NFL IChing Matrix: A Mystical Dance of Probability and Prediction
In the ancient art of divination, the I Ching—The Book of Changes—has long been revered as a mystical guide to the unfolding of fate through patterns and permutations. We bring that timeless wisdom to the gridiron with the NFL IChing Matrix, a fusion of mathematics, probability, and football insight.
What is the NFL IChing Matrix?
Imagine every NFL game as a triad of outcomes—did the home team win? Did they cover the spread? Did the total points go over the line? Each of these is a binary event: yes or no. Combine them, and you have (2^3 = 8) possible outcome patterns, each a unique “hexagram” in our modern oracle.
The NFL IChing Matrix is an (8 by 8) mystical grid, where each row represents the predicted outcome pattern, and each column represents the actual outcome pattern. Each cell in this matrix reveals the probability that a predicted pattern corresponds to an actual pattern, illuminating the strengths, weaknesses, and hidden rhythms of your prediction model.
Why is this matrix so powerful?
- Mathematical elegance: It captures the joint distribution of complex, intertwined outcomes beyond simple win/loss.
- Mystical insight: Just as the ancient I Ching reveals the flow of change, this matrix reveals how your model’s predictions flow into reality—where it shines and where it stumbles.
- Practical use: By studying this matrix, you can identify which outcome combinations your model predicts well and which need refinement, guiding smarter betting and model improvements.
How can you use it?
- Evaluate model accuracy: See how often your predictions hit the mark exactly.
- Diagnose prediction errors: Understand which outcome combinations are confused.
- Calibrate probabilities: Adjust your model to better reflect real-world results.
- Enhance betting strategies: Focus on bets where your model has proven strength.
Step into the realm where football meets fortune, and let the NFL IChing Matrix be your guide through the ever-changing tides of the game!
BELOW IS THE MATRIX AFTER 240 GAMES (16 WEEKS) THIS SEASON. NOTE THAT 100 IS THE MOST COMMON PREDICTION (20.4% of the time ) AND 111 is the MOST COMMON OUTCOME (22.1%), SO FAR!
TRENDS TO WATCH:
- We are tracking the performance of the following system which was:
8-6 ATS in Week 14.
8-8 ATS in Week 15.
4-12 ATS in Week 16. Kaboom! System is now shredded….
“If the prediction has two or three 1 bits: Bet on the Home Team to Cover.
If the prediction has two or three 0 bits: Bet on the Visitor to Cover.”
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2. THE CHRISTMAS ATS SYSTEM: (A gift ?)
The following precise system was 12-4 ATS and 10-6 ATS weeks 15 and 16,respectively.
Check it out!
“Using ff-winners.com power rankings Add the ROAD “OVER TOTAL SCORE” to the HOME “OVER TOTAL SCORE”.
If this number is 100 or greater we expect the game to go over the TOTAL, Bet On The ROAD TEAM to cover!
If less than 100 we expect the game to go under the TOTAL. Bet on the home team to cover!
For example, Broncos at Chiefs this week: 52 + 23 = 75 < 100. So look for the Home Team, “Chiefs”, to cover the spread! Note that the system can be wrong about the Total, but still go on to win the ATS bet.
(Be careful! in the last two weeks of the season, team motivation may be unpredictable or absent.).
Outc_000 Outc_001 Outc_010 Outc_011 Outc_100 Outc_101 Outc_110 Outc_111 Row Total
Pred_000 0.029 0.042 0.008 0.017 0.004 0.004 0.029 0.046 0.179
Pred_001 0.029 0.025 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.021 0.008 0.092
Pred_010 0.008 0.013 0.004 0.013 0.000 0.000 0.017 0.017 0.071
Pred_011 0.025 0.013 0.000 0.008 0.004 0.000 0.013 0.008 0.071
Pred_100 0.038 0.042 0.000 0.000 0.017 0.004 0.046 0.058 0.204
Pred_101 0.017 0.025 0.000 0.000 0.017 0.000 0.021 0.021 0.100
Pred_110 0.008 0.025 0.000 0.000 0.013 0.017 0.042 0.033 0.137
Pred_111 0.029 0.029 0.000 0.004 0.004 0.021 0.029 0.029 0.146
Col Total 0.183 0.213 0.017 0.042 0.058 0.050 0.217 0.221 1.000