NFL 2016-7 Super Bowl Dark Horses

Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons are 7-4, and just defeated the Arizona Cardinals 38-19 at home. The Falcons are ranked 4th in total offense, and 3rd in passing offense. QB Matt Ryan has looked much more comfortable with an improved offensive line and a steady, reliable run game in Devonte Freeman. The pass defense is ranked 30th but the run defense is ranked 9th, and they are +3 in turnover differential. The Falcons have always been a dominant team in the Georgia Dome, and if they continue to play at a high level they could secure a home playoff game. With the balance they have on offense and the improving defense, we could see this team making a run in the playoffs.
New York Giants: The Giants are 8-3 and are on a 6 game win streak. The Cowboys are the obvious pick to win the NFC East, but the Giants could still sneak in the wild card and make some noise. Eli Manning is an elite QB, and they have one of the best WR trios in football with Odell Beckham Jr., Victor Cruz and rookie Sterling Shepard. The Giants last two super bowl wins, they barely snuck into the playoffs then caught fire. This team has the potential to do that again, with Manning they are never out of a game. The defense has drastically improved from last year as well, ranking 16th in total defense and 5th against the run. The NFC East is always crazy, and we could definitely see the Giants spoiling the Cowboys super bowl run and make a deep run of their own.
Denver Broncos: This is an unconventional pick from the AFC West, most would pick the Kansas City Chiefs. We like the Broncos because of their suffocating defense, they won a Super Bowl with great defense last year and they could make a run again. QB Trevor Siemian has played well, throwing for 2,396 yards 15 TDs and only 7 INTs. The Broncos have proven they can win b y not beating themselves and letting the defense keep the scores close. They still have an opportunity to clinch a playoff berth with games at the Chiefs and a home finale with the Raiders. If they sneak in, they will be a tough out with that stout defense and can cause problems to the explosive offenses in the AFC.

[Analysis by NFL expert Preston Rowe]

2015 Super Bowl Point Spread : Early Movement

The point spread for Super Bowl XLIX moved 3.5 points at MGM Resorts on Sunday night, as the Patriots pulled away from the Colts to secure the AFC title.

The Las Vegas sports book operator, along with many others in town, opened the Seahawks as 2.5-point favorites during the third quarter of New England’s 45-7 victory. By the late fourth quarter, the Pats were the 1-point favorite.

“We opened (Seattle) -2.5, but I knew it was the wrong side, and I just kept dropping it down little by little even though we didn’t get much action on it,” Jay Rood, MGM Resorts VP of race and sports, told The Linemakers’ Micah Roberts. “The more I was thinking about it, the more I thought New England should be favored, and the bulk of the action we took on it — about $10,000 — has been on the Patriots -1.”

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Seattle -2.5, but the shop was dealing the game at a pick ‘em less than a half-hour later, according to assistant manager Jeff Sherman’s Twitter feed.

William Hill U.S. moved to a pick ‘em on Sunday night as well, director of trading Nick Bogdanovich told The Linemakers on Sporting News in a text message. The shop was offering an advanced line of Seattle -3 vs. New England last week.

Super Bowl XLIX is set for Sunday, Feb. 1 in Glendale, Ariz.

That the spread moved immediately in New England’s direction is not a surprise. Early line moves are typically prompted by money from professional bettors. But with Vegas books packed with public bettors for Championship Sunday, the cumulative smaller wagers have a greater impact. Public bettors, of course, tend to base their wagers on what they most-recently witnessed — and that was the Pats blowing out the Colts and the Seahawks coming away with a very fortunate win over the Packers.

“The books want to get to the right number as quickly as they can,” said The Linemakers’ Roberts. “This will be the biggest bet game of the year, where the public has more influence on the number than the wise guys. In most cases with the public, they go by what they saw last, and in this case, it was Seattle struggling at home and committing five turnovers and the Patriots rolling to a blowout win. I think the public will side with the Patriots early on.”

Early wagering on last year’s Super Bowl was similar, as Seattle opened as a short favorite but Denver was bet to a favorite within a few hours on Championship Sunday.

Said Tony Miller at the Golden Nugget, “We haven’t taken any big action on the game yet, just a bunch of guys putting some small parlays on it before they head out of town.”

Miller said he believes Seattle -3 is the proper number, but he adjusted to what he saw in the market.

“With -2s being out there and -1.5 at the Mirage, I opened -2.5 just to be at the highest number, but the (odds) screen is jumping right now,” Miller said. “I’m looking at a few books down to -1 right now, so I’m moving to -2 and I’ll still be high.”

Five minutes later, Miller took a bet large enough (not a limit wager) to drop even further, to -1, to put him in line with most of the other books around town. But the number would continue to drop, and pick ‘em was the consensus line by the time the AFC game ended.

The total opened between 48.5 and 49.5.

On sale: The Wynn is enticing bettors in Vegas with a special offer of -105 vigorish on side bets, exec VP for Race & Sports John Avello told The Linemakers on Sporting News in a text on Sunday night. Gamblers usually have to lay -110.

High bar: Nevada sports books handled a record $119.4 million in wagers on last year’s Super Bowl, which shattered the previous mark of $98.9 set the previous year. They also won $19.6 million, another record.


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2015-6 Super Bowl Odds Posted

Futures wagering on Super Bowl 50, set for Sunday, Feb. 7 in Santa Clara, Calif., is open in Las Vegas, and three of this season’s final four teams sit atop the odds board at the Westgate SuperBook.

The Seahawks (5-to-1 odds), Patriots (6-to-1) and Packers (7-to-1) open as the top three betting choices, while the Colts – this season’s other semifinalist – is tied for sixth at 16-to-1.

The Eagles, also at 16-to-1, have the shortest odds to win Super Bowl 50 of any team that missed this season’s playoffs.

The Broncos and Cowboys – both eliminated in the divisional round last weekend – open at 8-to-1 and 12-to-1, respectively.

The 49ers are 25-to-1 to win the Super Bowl in their home, Levi’s Stadium.

While it may seem early for odds to be posted on next season’s championship, bookmakers don’t worry too much about seismic shifts in balance due to the draft or free agency.  In the NBA, a move like LeBron James’ from Miami to Cleveland has a dramatic impact on futures prices .  Such a dynamic does not occur in the NFL.

“You’ll rarely find a rookie who will make a huge impact on the futures,” SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay told The Linemakers’ Micah Roberts. “Usually in the NFL, it takes multiple trades, multiple additions in the free-agent market to adjust the futures – but it will happen.”

ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL 50, SANTA CLARA, CALIF., FEB. 7, 2016
SEAHAWKS 5-1
PATRIOTS 6-1
PACKERS 7-1
BRONCOS 8-1
COWBOYS 12-1
EAGLES 16-1
COLTS 16-1
LIONS 25-1
SAINTS 25-1
RAMS 25-1
49ERS 25-1
CARDINALS 25-1
STEELERS 25-1
RAVENS 25-1
BENGALS 25-1
TEXANS 30-1
CHARGERS 30-1
CHIEFS 30-1
GIANTS 30-1
PANTHERS 30-1
FALCONS 30-1
DOLPHINS 30-1
BEARS 50-1
VIKINGS 50-1
BILLS 50-1
BROWNS 50-1
REDSKINS 100-1
JETS 100-1
BUCS 200-1
TITANS 300-1
JAGUARS 300-1
RAIDERS 300-1

Estimating the Odds for 2015 Super Bowl Matchups

From all the feasible matchups for  the 2015 Superbowl, which is  the most likely to take place on Feb. 1 in the Phoenix desert?

 

Our staff has been studying the odds for 2015 Super Bowl candidate pairings.A lengthy listing has been produced by us, integrating every feasible mix of teams to attempt and predict the future. Nonetheless, all of us recognize that there are a few combos that are  more likely to occur, and may allow the shrewd bettor to place some profitable wagers.

The most likely game is  a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl between the Seattle Seahawks and the Denver Broncos. The Hawks defeated Peyton Manning and the AFC champs in impressive fashion, allowing their defense to set the tone on their way to a 43-8 devastation.

As NFL oddsmakers see this ordeal playing out, the opportunities that these groups meet  in the Big Game for the second year in a row is  about 6-1, the most likely chances of any  combination. Both teams have made some key moves to their lineups this offseason, so it’s clear that this competition is a distinct possibility.

The 2nd likeliest of all the competitions includes these same Seahawks against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. Currently, that competition is about 8-1, in  what unquestionably would be an awesome Superbowl.


Next  on our list, and completing our top 3 NFL wagering favorites, is a potential showdown between two of the best quarterbacks in the game in Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers. So at about 10-1 odds the Broncos will meet the  Packers.

 We have  the San Francisco 49ers to meet the Broncos at about 15-1 odds.For those of you who like teams that begin with B, we would set the Bears versus the Broncos at 45-1! For teams that begin with P, we have the Packers versus the Patriots at 18-1!