PODCAST: Statistical Insight into the 2017-8 NFL Season

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, Ed Feng talks with Aaron Schatz, founder of Football Outsiders, on the following topics:

  • How Aaron got on the Late Show with Seth Myers
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL, and how it’s been that way for 30 years
  • The coach that defies the odds and makes his team better
  • Why the Rams won’t be as bad as you think in 2017
  • The NFL team due for a steep decline in 2017 due to their defense

FF-Winners.Com Releases 5 Shocking Predictions for the Coming NFL Season

The Cincinnati Bengals  Win the AFC North: We absolutely loved the Bengals draft class, they got two future stars in WR John Ross and RB Joe Mixon. The Bengals relied heavily on WR A.J. green early in the season and had no one step up when Green got injured late in the season. The Bengals went 6-9-1 last year basically relying on Green, a non-existent ground game and defense. Ross will take pressure off Green as he is a true deep threat that will force the defense to account for him. He can also take a slant or screen and use his blazing speed and quickness to score from anywhere on the field. Mixon would have been a top 15 pick if he had not punched a woman in 2014, he has kept his nose clean for 3 years and the Bengals took a chance on him. He was the 2nd best RB in the draft in our opinion behind Dalvin Cook as he is explosive, powerful and has great hands out of the backfield. The Bengals will bounce back and win the AFC North with a healthy Green, and two new stars to help him.

The Indianapolis Colts  Fail to Win the AFC South Again: The Colts drafted the best coverage safety in the draft in Malik Hooker, and also got a solid cover CB in Quincy Wilson to help their weak secondary, but they once again failed to upgrade their most pressing need. The Colts offensive line is a disaster and they still have not made the proper effort to upgrade it. Andrew Luck is overrated and a mediocre system QB  but not even Tom Brady could be successful with that offensive line. The combination of Luck’s mediocrity, the lack of run game and a horrible offensive line will result in yet another failed division crown. The Colts may even miss the playoffs because the Houston Texans drafted QB Deshaun Watson and the Tennessee Titans are on the rise. The Colts will once again fail to win the weakest division in professional football.

The New England Patriots  Win Yet Another Super Bowl:

The Patriots won the off-season, there is no question about that. They signed WR deep threat Brandon Cooks from the New Orleans Saints and signed shutdown CB Stephon Gilmore and power RB Mike Gillislee from the Buffalo Bills. They also drafted a solid edge rusher in Derek Rivers in the 3rd round. The Patriots are the overwhelming favorites to win it all again next year, and they will. The AFC is not as strong as the NFC and the only real challengers we see the Patriots having are the Oakland Raiders with a healthy Derek Carr and then probably the Pittsburgh Steelers as they are always dangerous in the postseason. The Patriots just came back down 25 at halftime to the red hot Atlanta Falcons and stunned the entire world to cap the most improbable super bowl victory last year. They actually improved this off-season with their first real deep threat since Randy Moss and a great CB to help their secondary. The Patriots will repeat as super bowl champs this year.

The New York Giants  Have The Best WR Corps:

The New York Giants will give opposing secondary’s nightmares as they already have one of the best three WRs in the NFL in Odell Beckham Jr. and a rising star in the slot in 2nd year Sterling Sheppard. They also added veteran WR Brandon Marshall, and with those three alone they would be one of the best WR corps in the NFL. Most people believed it could not get any better for QB Eli Manning, but that was before the 2017 NFL Draft. They got a steal with the 23rd pick in hybrid TE/WR Evan Engram, who is 6’3″ 215 Ibs and runs a 4.42 40 time. Engram will be a matchup nightmare for LBs and safeties, and then defenses will be scrambling to try and figure out who to cover and who to double. Marshall and Beckham both are stars and Sheppard and Engram are matchup problems down the seam and over the middle. Eli Manning will light up opposing defenses with all his new weapons and the Giants will win games because of the best WR corps in the NFL.

The Dallas Cowboys Do Not Win 10 Games :

The Dallas Cowboys shocked everyone by winning 13 games with two major rookie contributors last year with QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott. What people forget is that they were 4-12 the previous season so they played a weak schedule. This season the Cowboys will play a first place schedule which will be much tougher, plus the division rival New York Giants will be a lot better and more explosive. The Cowboys must travel to the Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons and the Oakland Raiders as well as play the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks at home. All of these games are potential losses especially because the Cowboys did not give their defense much help. They drafted DE Taco Charlton in the first round but passed on stud MLB Reuben Foster who was a top 5 talent in this class. Teams will have an entire off-season to plan for Dak Prescott, and if we add that to the fact that they play a much tougher schedule as well as did not upgrade their defense, the Dallas Cowboys will fail to win 10 plus games this year.

Six Tips for an Awesome Tailgate Season

You already take your tailgating seriously. It’s not like you’re someone who would show up on game day with a bag of chips and a six pack of beer and think you’re prepared. But there is a difference between holding a good tailgate that has the basics covered and hosting the tailgate people are still talking about after the game.

All great tailgates excel in three main areas: food, drinks and setup. Check out these six tips for taking all aspects of your party to the next level — and get ready for a winning tailgate season.

The Food

A great tailgate takes typical game day food and turns it up a few notches. You don’t need a five-star tasting menu. Nope, just add some flair to the normal hamburger and chip-dip selection.

1. Make Your Food Portable.

Your tailgate guests don’t want to be stuck hovering over the food table, so set them free by making most of your food easy to hold with one hand. Think wax paper sleeves for your burgers (in team colors, of course) as well as kettle corn and other snacks already packaged in mini-brown paper bags. Oh, and don’t forget a cupcake tier of bite-sized desserts.

2. Pick Out a Themed Recipe.

Make one item on your spread themed to your team. Are you a Bills fan? Then you’ll need some Buffalo chicken bites. Baltimore Ravens tailgaters will love your Edgar Allen Poe-boy sliders. The more creative, the better.

The Drinks

Like your food, you don’t need to have a fully stocked bar to throw a great party (although we’re not stopping you). In addition to a variety of beer, wine, water and soda on ice, offer at least one fun drink option to help your tailgate stand out.

3. Create a Bloody Mary Bar.

For early morning tailgates, a decked out Bloody Mary bar can serve as both drink and food. Load mason jars with pickled vegetables, cheese cubes, bacon, olives and lemon wedges, and let your guests make their own skewers. Provide pitchers of your favorite Bloody Marys (spicy and non-spicy), along with celery salt-rimmed glasses.

4. Strongly Consider Ice Pops.

Frozen drinks become essential for proper hydration and enjoyment, especially for those early season games. The night before the game, add sangria, screwdriver or cosmo mix into Popsicle molds and break out your boozy treats when the sun starts beating down the next day. Just be sure not to go too heavy on the alcohol or your ice pops will be too slushy to freeze.

The Setup

Any seasoned tailgater will tell you that people will stay for your food and drinks, but they’re initially attracted to the party you’ve set up. In addition to ample seating, a few party games and shade, invest in one big thing that will make your setup stand above the rest.

5. Go Big on Your Ride.

The bigger you can go, the better. What other kind of party gives you an excuse to trick out your vehicle? If you have a truck, bump up your tire size and outfit your rims. If you have an RV, get that custom team paint job you have always been dreaming about.

6. Throw in Some Tech.

Bring a mobile Wi-Fi hub and a few external batteries to use as mobile charging stations and your guests will hail you as a genius (particularly when it’s time to go to the game and their phone has 5 percent battery life).

Carolina and Denver open the NFL season


Football is officially back! We just enjoyed the greatest opening weekend in college football history and on Thursday we will get a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl. The Carolina Panthers will travel to Denver to try and prove last year’s game was a fluke. The Panthers outgained the Broncos 315 to 194 but the game was decided by the Panther’s four turnovers. The Broncos stout defense stripped MVP QB Cam Newton and scored early on.

That game is in the past, and the Panther’s will be up for this one to prove all their doubters wrong. The Panthers return their star WR Kelvin Benjamin from injury and will be even more explosive than last year, which is frightening. The defense lost Pro Bowl CB Josh Norman, but the front seven remains intact and their zone coverage scheme should help mask the loss of Norman. The Broncos lost a legend in QB Peyton Manning, as well as DL Malik Jackson and LB Danny Trevathan. The defensive losses will have a huge impact on the Broncos, as it make it difficult for their defense to be as dominant as last year. The defense helped them win many games last year, and with a new a starting QB in Trevor Siemian they will rely on the defense early and often. The problem is the Panthers are hungry and out to prove they never lost a step. Cam Newton and all his weapons will be motivated and want to make a statement. The Broncos front seven, led by OLB Von Miller will get after Newton and make him uncomfortable at first.

PREDICTION: The game will be close at first, but the Broncos will not make enough explosive plays to keep up and the Panthers will pull away in the third and fourth quarters. The Panthers will make it a priority to stop the run and force Siemian to beat them with his arm. The Broncos will try to get the ball out of his hands quickly to WRs Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. They will try to slice the defensive zone schemes and coverage with screens and curls, but it won’t be enough. The Panthers will win this game with a very good defense and an offense that will be even better this year.

[Analysis by NFL expert Preston Rowe]

Workout Guide: Football Season Edition

The 2015 NFL season is finally here. And that means instead of hitting the gym like usual, you’re going to be spending a lot more time on couch with your buddies in front of your flat screen, rooting for your favorite teams and fantasy players. The face-stuffing, beer-drinking, sedentary lifestyle that comes with every football season might leave you feeling a little heavier than pre-season. But the guys who follow winning teams might have an unfair advantage. And no, we’re not talking about Tom Brady’s balls and Deflategate.

A new study has shown that fans of losing NFL teams are more likely to be fat. According to a study from the Journal of Psychological Science, after a loss, losing fans eat 16 percent more saturated fats and 10 percent more calories, while fans of winning teams are more likely to eat healthy. If your team’s coach is in the hot seat this year, like the Eagle’s Chip Kelly or Jeff Fisher from the Rams, you better hide chips and dip. If you’re all about college football, prepare for this season’s biggest matchups. Whatever the outcome, win or lose, you should still be getting in some reps and staying fit this season. Here’s how:

Commercials: Push Ups

When it comes to hanging with the guys, even the littlest things can turn into a competition. Who can pick up that girl? Who can drink more beers? Who has the nicest car? A little competition is healthy, so bring that same competitive spirit to your living room while you’re watching the game with your bros. During each commercial break, challenge your friends to a push-up contest. See how many you can do. Whoever does the most reps wins. There’s not exactly a prize, just bragging rights.

Halftime: Touch Football

If you’ve got a crowd at your place, take everyone outside during halftime and toss-around the ol’ pigskin during halftime. Split everyone up into even teams and play a game of touch football. Moving a little bit, getting your heart rate up and breathing in some fresh air after two long quarters of sitting inside is good for you. Just don’t go too hard, you don’t want to pull something.

Timeouts: Planks

Work your core and pass the time during each timeout of the game. Like pushups, this exercise will spark a little competition between all the guys. See who can hold the pose for the longest time, with proper form, until play resumes. A little ab work never hurt anybody. Exercising during time out breaks will also help you cut back on snacking

Catch the Game at the Gym

For fitness junkies who are serious about breaking a sweat on game day, head to the gym and flip on the TV. Whether you’re using your home gym or you belong to a member’s only club, breaking a sweat and getting some cardio in while watching TV actually makes the exercise feel easier. A study from the University of North Carolina found that people who watched a video while working out had perceived less exertion. And, another study from the Journal of Behavioural Science showed that people who worked out in front of a TV actually exercised longer than people who weren’t watching. 🙂

These Harvard NFL Season Predictions are Weird!

Judge for yourself :

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2015/07/a-way-too-early-prediction-of-the-nfl-season/

NFL 2015-6: Forecasting Next Season

 

 

My wild predictions for 2015! 😆

The Seattle Seahawks as well as New England Patriots will certainly have their teams mostly in one piece for one more champion run next year. As long as Tom Brady and also Bill Belichick remain  in the video, the Patriots will always be in the discussion.

The Bears’ hiring of John Fox is a fantastic hire. He when led the Panthers to the Super Bowl with Jake Delhomme as his quarterback. If any person can coach Jay Cutler to the Super Bowl, it ‘d be Fox. Cutler has had a lot of tools at his disposal, but in some way he can not acquire the job done. A seasoned coach in Fox just could turn the Bears around following season.

The Indianapolis Colts require some tools to place together with Andrew Luck, as well as when they do they will come to be a severe danger to the Patriots in the AFC. I believe Chuck Pagano is an exceptional coach. His team just doesn’t have all the items in position. Way too much drops on Luck’s shoulders, and the defense is far also inconsistent. Adding some vital items in complimentary agency or the draft might push the Colts past the AFC Championship Game.

The Green Bay Packers have some cost-free broker problems also. Randall Cobb, Bryan Bulaga, B.J. Raji and also Tramon Williams, among others, lack agreements this offseason. A tough offensiveline is critical for protecting Aaron Rodgers as well as opening holes for Eddie Lacy, but Bulaga’s injury past may lead the Packers to look in other places. I do believe re-signing Cobb is a must, nonetheless. Cobb’s convenience and athleticism makes him a sensational possession, and also he’s confirmed to be a reputable target for Rodgers.The Packers were so near to getting to the Super Bowl this year. They could certainly draw of itf next year.

The Seahawks have lost protective planner Dan Quinn but advertised secondary coach Kris Richard to fill the gap. Russell Wilson and also Bobby Wagner will likely be offered financially rewarding expansions, yet if Marshawn Lynch determines to retire this offseason, the Seahawks’ road to the Super Bowl will certainly be considerably harder. Lynch is the essential to offensive success for the Seahawks, as well as without him they just aren’t as lethal.

I’m considering the Atlanta Falcons as well as Chicago Bears to  mind, and also he should be into tightening up the Falcons defense. And it’s not like Matt Ryan is a bad quarterback. The Falcons have soring  ability in him and Julio Jones. If Quinn could protect his quarterback and also whip the defense right into shape, I could view the Falcons vying for an NFC South crown next year!

St. Louis Rams Gain The NFC West

Marshawn Lynch may be retiring from Seattle. The San Francisco 49ers look directionless. When it comes to the Arizona Cardinals, they merely shed their protective coordinator and also can lose among their crucial edges to cost-free firm. It produces an excellent scenario for a group ahead from no place in that department. That is just what the St. Louis Rams are positioned to do. Currently flaunting a top protection, they are a quarterback far from stabilizing points out on infraction, making them underdog favorites for the NFC West crown.

Joe Flacco Reaches His First Super Bowl

Since 2008, Joe Flacco has actually only missed out on the playoffs when his whole occupation. He also has a Super Bowl ring and also Super Bowl MVP honors. So it might be difficult to visualize that the Baltimore Ravens quarterback has actually never ever gotten to a Pro Dish. Well expect that to alter. Regarding the arrival of offending coordinator Marc Trestman, Flacco is poised to have his finest season as a professional as well as lastly get several of the acknowledgment he deserves by visiting play in Hawaii.

Chicago Bears Defense Competes In The Top 10

It really did not acquire more unsightly for the Chicago Bears protection than going back-to-back video games surrendering 50 points in 2014. There should be no reason to expect this device to obtain better in one period, right? Well many thanks to the arrival of head coach John Fox as well as defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, that’s precisely what will certainly occur. Many thanks to some heady free agent offers and also composing, not just will the Bears rebound, they will actually complete in the leading 10 general.

Eli Manning Wins NFL MVP

Most of the period it was pretty unsightly for Eli Manning regarding all the interceptions, however he actually doned with a thrive. Now the proficient New York Giants quarterback is readied to go into a period regarding Victor Cruz and Odell Beckham Jr. as his main receivers. And also a steady ground assault led by Rashad Jennings as well as Andre Williams. Not only will Manning have a career year, but he will finally join his sibling Peyton in a special club by gaining NFL MVP.

Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick Each Rush for 1,000 Yards

Even as teams start to swing back in the direction of valuing pocket quarterbacks a lot more, the time of the running quarterback goes on. Many people could not understand that Russell Wilson hurried for 849 lawns and also his local equivalent Colin Kaepernick managed 639. Not only will the two finest those numbers in 2015, they will certainly become very first quarterbacks in NFL history to break 1,000 yards hurrying as a set.