PODCAST: Issues in Predicting College and NFL Football Games

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, Bob Stoll, founder of Dr. Bob Sports and true analytics pioneer, joins Ed Feng for a wide ranging conversation. Bob has been using analytics in his handicapping for 30 years.
Among other topics, we discuss the following:
  • How Bob first started running numbers on the NFL, and how different it was back then
  • The definition of a tout, and why Bob chooses to show his long term record
  • How Bob makes player adjustments for his college football model
  • The machine learning method he is applying to the NFL
  • Whether linebackers or defensive backs are more important to the defense
To listen on iTunes, click here:

How to Apply Artificial Intelligence to Fantasy Football

There are many ways to use artificial intelligence and machine learning to enhance one’s sports betting and gaming results. This article may give you some ideas:

click here

VIDEO: Simply Amazing Football Plays – Wow!

Source: https://youtu.be/KufAel6i9co

Week 5 Fantasy Football Waiver-Wire Grab Bag


While Week 4 featured another string of memorable, exciting games, several of them came at a cost, as numerous big-name fantasy stars suffered injuries. Fortunately, a few of those players will head …

Source: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000855040/article/week-5-fantasy-football-waiverwire-targets

NFL Fantasy Football 2017: Sleeper Quarterbacks for Your Consideration

Everyone is looking forward to the kickoff of the 2017 NFL season and not just because of the New England Patriots/Kansas City Chiefs game that will get things started. Certainly the NFL betting odds this season are worth the hype.

 

Everyone wants to know whether or not the Patriots will be dethroned and who will carry out the deed. But for fantasy football enthusiasts, there is a whole other prize at stake. If you are part of a fantasy football league, then the chances are high that you already drafted.

 

But if you haven’t yet, there are a few significant quarterbacks you might have slept on but who most definitely deserve your consideration for the 2017 season. Sleeper quarterbacks like this are easy to miss.

 

But if you are looking for a QB late in the draft, these guys could make all the difference to your prospects this season.

 

The first name on the list has to be Jay Cutler. Maybe you thought you would never have to give Cutler another thought. After all, he seemed pretty determined to retire in the offseason. You probably think that he is already off somewhere polishing his broadcaster abilities.

 

But you are wrong. Dolphins Coach Adam Gase threw his retirement plans out the window and dragged him back into the game, not only because of the experience he brings to the table as a former Chicago Bears and Denver Broncos QB but also because Ryan Tannehill was sidelined by a knee injury that has pretty much ended his season.

 

Miami couldn’t afford to continue without  Cutler. So he is back in the game with a one-year deal, so do not count him out. This is as solid a first or second quarterback as they get.

 

Brian Hoyer closely follows Cutler on this list. Some people want to discount him because he can barely keep C.J. Beathard off his back. The San Francisco 49ers rookie is definitely impressive. But Brian is all but certain to keep his starting job this season.

 

And you know that Kyle Shanahan, the new coach, is going to get the best out of him. That is what Kyle does; he takes talent and polishes it. Brian is definitely a talent. He delivered a solid performance in the preseason.

 

The fact that he has largely gone undrafted is surprising. But he still makes a great last-round QB pick; so you might as well pounce on him.

 

DeShone Kizer has the most to prove of the bunch because no one knows whether or not he will be productive for the Browns’ offense this season. But the preseason gave everyone plenty of reason to keep an eye on Kizer. His 8 carries for 47 yards showed just how mobile he can be.

 

And with a solid team of receivers by his side, Kizer’s stock is all but guaranteed to rise.

 

People do not know what to make of Deshaun Watson of the Houston Texans. He isn’t expected to start. But do not be too quick to count him out. The one person standing in his way is Tom Savage.

 

But Tom is only guaranteed to start in Week 1. The veteran is unlikely to hold out for the whole season. So expect Watson’s potential to explode in the near future.

 

Nine 2017 Fantasy Football Sleepers That Pros are Drafting

One of the most underrated avenues to separate yourself from your league-mates is hammering the back end of the draft with high-upside dart throws. The typical drafter will go the safe route and draft players based on name value. Here’s a  tip: don’t do that! The latter part of the draft is where professional fantasy football players separate themselves  from amateurs.

Here are nine sleeper picks you need to consider:
Source: http://www.thefantasyauthority.com/redraft/9-fantasy-football-sleepers/

Thoughts On NFL Fantasy Football After Preseason Week 1

There is no better time than now for fans to draft players to their fantasy football teams. Sunday’s games have a lot to tell about the players and their value to their teams. Based on their performance, you can tell what player deserves to be on your team, and who is not worth the investment. Read on to get more insight on the NFL odds for week 1.

Could Robby Anderson be the New York Jets’ No. 1?

Anderson’s performance last season was nothing if not sterling, which is why he really ought to be a top priority for the Jets. With 14 receptions, 29 targets, 240 yards and 2 scores last week, he is well above most other players. He is a little over 6 feet tall, which makes him the tallest receiver. He might not weigh much at 190 lbs, but there is no denying that he is talented. Despite McCown’s attack on Saturday, Robby still deserves a place as one of the best New York Jets players.

The Patriots’ Backfield Uncertainty

There is little clarity on the status of the Patriots’ backfield. Dion Lewis seems to bear the bulk of the work after veteran player Mike Gilislee’s hamstring injury. Last season, Lewis did not get much time on the field due to injury, but this season seems more promising for him. According to many fantasy football enthusiasts, players like Rex Burkhead and James White seem invaluable, but the team’s coach Bill Belichick thinks that Lewis is just as important to the team.

Jameis Winston’s Astounding Performance

Winston beat Mike Evans with 7 targets and Cameron Brate with 19 and 8 yard gains, which is really not surprising. He remains a valuable player for his team, and one that you should consider drafting to your fantasy team. The case is different for rookie O.J Howard who despite showing great potential during the game remains a risky investment. Evan’s regression is a mere rumor, and since he has proven himself in other seasons, you might want to draft him into your team.

Is Kenny Galloday The Lions’ Star?

After two touchdowns, Lions’ rookie receiver enjoyed his well- earned time in the limelight. He has both flair and athletic ability, although this does not guarantee him a spot in the fantasy football community. This is because the Lions players rise through the ranks in a designated way. Currently, Marvin Jones, Eric Ebron and Theo Riddick are above Galloday in the pecking order. He might however be lucky since Ebron is prone to injury and Jones suffered huge statistical drop, so Galloday might still get his chance to shine.

Who will be the Dallas Backfield?

After Darren McFadden’s performance on Sunday, there is no doubt that he will be the Dallas backfield. He might be getting old and losing some of his exceptional flexibility as he turns thirty before the season kicks off, but he is still one of the team’s best players. Elliot’s pending suspension makes him a risky investment for your fantasy team. It is also hard to guess what a fair price for Zeke would be.

Colts Panic Due to Andrew Luck’s Absence

Luck has been missing in action for a while now after he suffered a shoulder injury that needed to be surgically repaired. This veteran quarterback’s absence from the field is unsettling to say the least. To make matters worse, his backup, Scott Tolzien, is not half as inspiring as Luck is. The team’s manager has not clearly stated that Luck won’t be joining the team, so there is still a glimmer of hope that he might return.

Rookies prove themselves

2017 seems like the year for rookie running backs to prove themselves. These include such players as Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara. It is somewhat reminiscent of the year 2014 where rookies like Odell Beckham Jr., Kelvin Benjamin and Mike Evans proved to be talented wide outs. Some rookie quarterbacks to watch out for include Deshaune Watson, Mitchell Trubisky and Deshone Kizer. Although it is clear that these rookies have immense talent, it is best to first observe them before drafting them for your team.

Video Lecture: Computer Power Rankings and Football Analytics

This video covers the basics and some of the nuances of developing and using computer
models to forecast football games.

VIDEO: When NFL = National Football Luck

From crazy fumbles to impossible finshes, these are some of the luckiest plays in NFL History.

Fantasy Football: Don’t Buy Into The Hype of the Rookie Runners

Who knew that fantasy football could be so complicated? Up to thirty running backs selected in the 2017 NFL Draft season are expected to make a noticeable impact in fantasy football in the immediate future, and you can only imagine what that will do for the NFL betting picks for the 2018 season.

Rookies like Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette, and Joe Mixon were selected in the first fifteen rounds of the ten-team NFL.Com draft. If that wasn’t enough, there is no end to the level of hype analysts are raising over Jamaal Williams, Kareem Hunt and Joe Williams.

It is hardly surprising that everyone expects depth charts to be dominated by these youngsters and more. And you would be hard-pressed to make a solid argument suggesting that this hype isn’t warranted.

Then again, does it make sense to overvalue players that haven’t even run a lap on an NFL gridiron? And it isn’t like this sort of hype has produced notable results in the past. Prognostications about rookies, especially the optimistic kind, rarely end well. Just look at DeMarco Murray. Everyone thought that his time with the Tennessee Titans was over after Derrick Henry, a Heisman winner was drafted. Murray went on to dominate that season.

If that sounds like it could be an isolated case, consider this; of all the rookie runners that have risen in the last decade, only two dozen have appeared in the top 25 in fantasy points. If those numbers do not make sense to you, that means only three rookie runners a year ranked in the top 25.

Whenever the draft season comes around and the hype surrounding rookies begins to rise, analysts and fans like to throw out names like Matt Forte, Chris Johnson and Jonathan Stewart from 2008. Those guys made it to the top 10 and it was a big deal. But one cannot ignore the fact that Rashard Mendenhall, Jamaal Charles and other high profile runners performed well below expectations.

Looking at the 2012 class, you can point to Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, and Alfred Morris as standouts. However, anyone who is anyone knows that 2012 didn’t have many talented options. The point is this: every rule has a few exceptions, and it seems a like a lot of analysts and fans in fantasy football are making their picks based on the exceptions instead of the rule.

Think about this. There have been 108 running backs in the NFL that have been selected in the first four rounds of the football draft over the previous decade. And among those running backs, only twenty-one have ever finished in the top 10.

Think about how demoralizing that figure should be, and then ask why rookie running backs are still being overvalued today.

Some rationale should be applied during the draft. And do not use the anxiety spreading online about rookie runners as an excuse to avoid rookie runners. That isn’t the take away here. The point here is this: be smart. Do not overreach for rookies. There are picks like Mixon that, while clearly impressive, should be saved for the third and the fourth rounds rather than the second. You do not want to miss on a player in the top fifty.

So, be smart.