Fantasy Football Rising Players

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C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo

Who would’ve thought that C.J. Spiller, second on the depth chart entering week one to Fred Jackson, would be leading the league in rushing yards two weeks in? Not me, that’s for sure. A week-one injury to Jackson spit Spiller back into the spotlight. The Bills’ RB was in the process of breaking out LAST season when Fred was injured and he appears to have really hit his stride in this, his 3rd NFL season. He’s averaging ten yards per attempt on 29 carries! He’s always had breakaway speed and now he’s learned the ways of the NFL and allowing his natural talent to carry him through. 29 carries, 292 yards. Ouch. He’s 51 yards ahead of Reggie Bush, the second-place rusher.

Carson Palmer, QB, Oakland

An unlikely riser, Palmer is 3rd in passing yards after week two. Part of that is the fact that RB Darren McFadden is not having a good start. He’s getting 2.1 yards per carry, forcing the Raiders to the air more than they want. Also, the Raiders are a very weak team overall and are playing from behind a lot, which points to more yards for Palmer. He’s a bit limited by his “help” at WR, but has so far ditched the “Interceptionitis” that he’s shown in recent years and has 2 TD tosses vs. a single pick in two games. Palmer is a guy who you might consider “selling high” in fantasy leagues – if you have any takers.

 Fantasy Football Rising Players

Danny Amendola, WR, St. Louis

Amendola is in a somewhat similar situation as Kevin Ogletree of the Cowboys, but Amendola does more things…namely returning kicks and punts. Against the Redskins, he had a career day, with 15 grabs for 160 yards and a TD. Danny was set up to break out last season after a sophomore campaign where he had 85 catches and appeared to be the NFC’s version of Wes Welker – a small, shifty slot receiver – when he got injured in his first game of 2011 and missed the entire season. It looks like the breakout is on the way now, however. You don’t get 15 receptions in a game without being a favorite of your QB, so look for the chemistry between he and Sam Bradford to continue to get Amendola some looks. He could be a star player in PPR leagues this season.

Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco

Smith showed last year that he can be a “caretaker”-type of QB…a guy who isn’t asked to carry his team, but IS asked to not screw things up and complete short passes with an occasional long ball to TE Vernon Davis. Smith isn’t high up in many statistical cateogries with 437 yards passing in his first two games. He’s got 4 TDs vs. 0 interceptions and only threw 6 INTs in all of 2011. This season, with a year of learning (and buying into) Jim Harbaugh’s system, the Niners look like the class of the NFL with victories over playoff teams in their first two outings. I think his success continues and while he may never have the 500-yard game like Eli Manning did this week, he’ll have a lot of 250-300 yard games and won’t be putting up single-digit fantasy numbers in any given week, either. His floor (fantasy-wise) is pretty high, and his ceiling may be a bit higher than most people think.

Brent Celek, TE, Philadelphia

After two weeks, Celek leads all TEs by a large margin in receiving yards with 222. Next is Jimmy Graham with 156. While Celek doesn’t have a TD yet, he has SIX receptions of over 20 yards already. With numbers like that, it’s only a matter of time before he has a multi-TD game.

Darren Sproles, RB, New Orleans

The Saints’ up-and-down offense this season has given Sproles a chance to shine. He’s got 18 catches in his first 2 games, making him a very nice starter in PPR leagues. With the Saints’ offensive line allowing Brees to be pressured more, Sproles should see more and more looks as a hot receiver in addition to any yardage he gets on the ground. He’s a true dual-threat guy with a unique skill set and offensive role, which should allow him to be on the scoring board in fantasy points every week. With his speed, he’s always a threat to score whenever he gets the ball and with defenders’ hands so full with Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston and Lance Moore, Sproles should see some room underneath…and break one every so often.

 
 Fantasy Football Rising Players

Fantasy Football Philosophy

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Targeting a position:

  • RB - Running backs are almost universally accepted as the premier position in standard fantasy football. This is because they're capable of scoring a ton of fantasy points but are not nearly as deep as quarterback. This year is no exception to that rule. In fact, many people are suggesting that's even more so the case this season than in the past. There are three really elite tier backs: Arian FosterLeSean McCoy, and Ray Rice. They are young guys that have proven they can play at an elite level over the course of multiple seasons. They also carry a lower risk, compared to some of the backs just on the cusp. If you're picking in the top three of your fantasy draft, you'll want to lock up one of these three. There are still great fantasy running backs other than those three of course, such as Maurice Jones-DrewDarren McFadden, Chris Johnson, Marshawn LynchMatt Forte, and the list goes on. These guys vary a lot more than the top three and are subject to where you value their potential.
  • QB - Solid quarterbacks will get you by in most fantasy leagues. However, if there has been a run on the top six to eight running backs and you're drafting outside of that, you might want to look at an elite QB. Guys like Aaron RodgersDrew Brees, and Tom Brady can definitely carry a team. They'll definitely be scoring a lot more points than the nearest elite WR. Something you may have to consider, though, is whether the gap between that elite QB and a solid one you could grab a few rounds later is large enough compared to the gap between the potential WRs or RBs. The Tony Romo's and Eli Manning's of the league will still get the job done that you need from that fantasy position. You definitely want to solidify this position in the draft because QBs are among the harder positions to find waiver wire gems. Michael Vick, Cam Newton, and Ryan Fitzpatrick are the rare exceptions.
  • WR - This might be the hardest position to gauge. Wide receiver is still considered the deepest of the three this season, which is typical. But, outside of the obvious No. 1 WR this year, Calvin Johnson, there is a lot room for subjectivity and/or personal opinion. Larry Fitzgerald, for example, I've seen as high as No. 2 among WRs and as low as No. 6. It was almost the exact same case for Greg Jennings, between No. 2 and No. 7. From my experience, drafting a WR first has not been nearly as fruitful, especially with the likes of Victor CruzLaurent RobinsonStevie JohnsonMiles Austin, and more coming off the waiver wire any given year. Wide receiver is not only deep in the draft, but has the most sleepers that no one thought to pickup in the preseason. We also have TEs like Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham putting up fantasy numbers just as high as elite WRs in today's NFL.

Best Player Available (BPA): Rather than determining what position or player to target based on where you're drafting, with the BPA philosophy you play off of those drafting in front of you and target the best fantasy player available. You don't follow trends or runs of a certain position. The key is sticking to the plan while filling out your roster with good value picks. It's unlikely to happen, but you don't want to take this to the extreme where you'd end up with eight great-to-solid running backs but only two below average wide receivers. You still want to consider depth, but you have to balance that with value. The BPA is my draft philosophy of choice.

Other Draft Day Considerations:

  • Handcuff / Insurance - "Handcuffing" refers to drafting your star running back's backup. This can be particularly important for injury prone RBs. Losing your first round draft pick to injury can be absolutely disastrous in fantasy football, something I and many others know from firsthand experience. The idea here is that you can cut your losses significantly if you already have said pick's backup sitting on your bench ready to plug in. Ask last year's Michael Bush and Ben Tate owners. With that explained, I still don't stress this as much as others. Drafting BPA doesn't allow for reaching, which is often the case with handcuffing. If you can get value out of the pick, that'd be ideal.
  • Understanding Risk: Low vs. High (Recent Injury) - You might be thinking that you're getting an amazing deal with Adrian Peterson slipping all the way to you at No. 10 or so. You're not. You have to factor the risk you're taking. Peterson, for example, tore his left ACL and MCL in Week 17 last season. Recent reports have the Vikings only considering the possibility of even activating him for the season opener. Darren McFadden is another risky player coming off injury. Chris Johnson is coming off a career low season. Consistency is generally the key to low risk. Some players have immediately proven they can come back from injury to perform at a high level, such as Foster. You want to weigh risk against not only the potential reward, but also where you're looking to draft someone.

Mock Draft: Practice makes perfect. Actually in the case of fantasy football, practice makes for slightly lower chances of major mistakes come the time for the real thing. Mock drafts can help you get an initial sense of value, especially if you're new to fantasy football. Even if you're a longtime veteran, the outlook of the league changes a lot from season to season. Trends come and go. You may have to prepare to draft from anywhere, front, back, or middle of the pack. Mock drafts can help you prepare for these things as well as others.

Closing statement: Fantasy leagues are not won in the draft. Good drafts will help a lot, sure. But, leagues are won throughout the season. The most obvious thing is just to set your lineup every week. That seems simple enough, but you might be surprised how often that relatively simple task is forgotten. The next thing can take a little more time and effort, but is still very doable, and it's something I've been preaching since I started writing these. Work the waiver wire! Master that and you'll do well.Targeting a position:

  • RB - Running backs are almost universally accepted as the premier position in standard fantasy football. This is because they're capable of scoring a ton of fantasy points but are not nearly as deep as quarterback. This year is no exception to that rule. In fact, many people are suggesting that's even more so the case this season than in the past. There are three really elite tier backs: Arian FosterLeSean McCoy, and Ray Rice. They are young guys that have proven they can play at an elite level over the course of multiple seasons. They also carry a lower risk, compared to some of the backs just on the cusp. If you're picking in the top three of your fantasy draft, you'll want to lock up one of these three. There are still great fantasy running backs other than those three of course, such as Maurice Jones-DrewDarren McFadden, Chris Johnson, Marshawn LynchMatt Forte, and the list goes on. These guys vary a lot more than the top three and are subject to where you value their potential.
  • QB - Solid quarterbacks will get you by in most fantasy leagues. However, if there has been a run on the top six to eight running backs and you're drafting outside of that, you might want to look at an elite QB. Guys like Aaron RodgersDrew Brees, and Tom Brady can definitely carry a team. They'll definitely be scoring a lot more points than the nearest elite WR. Something you may have to consider, though, is whether the gap between that elite QB and a solid one you could grab a few rounds later is large enough compared to the gap between the potential WRs or RBs. The Tony Romo's and Eli Manning's of the league will still get the job done that you need from that fantasy position. You definitely want to solidify this position in the draft because QBs are among the harder positions to find waiver wire gems. Michael Vick, Cam Newton, and Ryan Fitzpatrick are the rare exceptions.
  • WR - This might be the hardest position to gauge. Wide receiver is still considered the deepest of the three this season, which is typical. But, outside of the obvious No. 1 WR this year, Calvin Johnson, there is a lot room for subjectivity and/or personal opinion. Larry Fitzgerald, for example, I've seen as high as No. 2 among WRs and as low as No. 6. It was almost the exact same case for Greg Jennings, between No. 2 and No. 7. From my experience, drafting a WR first has not been nearly as fruitful, especially with the likes of Victor CruzLaurent RobinsonStevie JohnsonMiles Austin, and more coming off the waiver wire any given year. Wide receiver is not only deep in the draft, but has the most sleepers that no one thought to pickup in the preseason. We also have TEs like Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham putting up fantasy numbers just as high as elite WRs in today's NFL.

Best Player Available (BPA): Rather than determining what position or player to target based on where you're drafting, with the BPA philosophy you play off of those drafting in front of you and target the best fantasy player available. You don't follow trends or runs of a certain position. The key is sticking to the plan while filling out your roster with good value picks. It's unlikely to happen, but you don't want to take this to the extreme where you'd end up with eight great-to-solid running backs but only two below average wide receivers. You still want to consider depth, but you have to balance that with value. The BPA is my draft philosophy of choice.

Other Draft Day Considerations:

  • Handcuff / Insurance - "Handcuffing" refers to drafting your star running back's backup. This can be particularly important for injury prone RBs. Losing your first round draft pick to injury can be absolutely disastrous in fantasy football, something I and many others know from firsthand experience. The idea here is that you can cut your losses significantly if you already have said pick's backup sitting on your bench ready to plug in. Ask last year's Michael Bush and Ben Tate owners. With that explained, I still don't stress this as much as others. Drafting BPA doesn't allow for reaching, which is often the case with handcuffing. If you can get value out of the pick, that'd be ideal.
  • Understanding Risk: Low vs. High (Recent Injury) - You might be thinking that you're getting an amazing deal with Adrian Peterson slipping all the way to you at No. 10 or so. You're not. You have to factor the risk you're taking. Peterson, for example, tore his left ACL and MCL in Week 17 last season. Recent reports have the Vikings only considering the possibility of even activating him for the season opener. Darren McFadden is another risky player coming off injury. Chris Johnson is coming off a career low season. Consistency is generally the key to low risk. Some players have immediately proven they can come back from injury to perform at a high level, such as Foster. You want to weigh risk against not only the potential reward, but also where you're looking to draft someone.

Mock Draft: Practice makes perfect. Actually in the case of fantasy football, practice makes for slightly lower chances of major mistakes come the time for the real thing. Mock drafts can help you get an initial sense of value, especially if you're new to fantasy football. Even if you're a longtime veteran, the outlook of the league changes a lot from season to season. Trends come and go. You may have to prepare to draft from anywhere, front, back, or middle of the pack. Mock drafts can help you prepare for these things as well as others.

Closing statement: Fantasy leagues are not won in the draft. Good drafts will help a lot, sure. But, leagues are won throughout the season. The most obvious thing is just to set your lineup every week. That seems simple enough, but you might be surprised how often that relatively simple task is forgotten. The next thing can take a little more time and effort, but is still very doable, and it's something I've been preaching since I started writing these. Work the waiver wire! Master that and you'll do well.

 

 Fantasy Football Philosophy
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Four Very High Risk Fantasy Football Studs

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First off, The Bucs wrongdoing is coming off a hideous year in which they averaged a disappointing 17.9 points per online game, 27th in the league. A big reason for that was Bount's incapability to exploit a productive rookie campaign that saw him go over 1,000 backyards. After being afflicted by injuries as well as ineffectiveness last time, Blount lost the faith of the Bucs company and they drafted previous Boise State celebrity Doug Martin in the preliminary. Martin's overall skills will make him the starter, potentially by the beginning of theseason.
 
 
When Boldin appeared to the Ravens, he was supposed to be the major online game receiver they had actually been so seriously needing. With either his own inability, or much more most likely, the failure of the quarterback he plays with, Boldin has failed to become the enormous stud he was supposed to be. With the Ravens being centered on Ray Rice and also with Boldin not getting more youthful at 31, ignore name recognition and also prevent your man like the pester!
 
3. Kenny Britt, WR Tennessee Titans
 
First thing to begin with, Britt is an extremely skilled comprehensive receiver who can set up large game plays as well and is most likely going to be prepared as a very early No. 2 receiver. While there is incredible upside with Britt, I state avoid him due to the fact that of his lack of ability to stay healthy and balanced. Britt failed to see three games in 2011 and a whopping 18 online games in the previous 2 years. Also, Britt will definitely be coming off of a knee surgical treatment which he had in May, which can't be a good indication.
 
 
Mentioning extremely accomplished users who just can't seem to remain in the industry, Darren McFadden takes the variety four spot on this listing. Like Britt, McFadden has been trauma vulnerable, failing to see 13 games in the past two periods. While he has revealed flashes of shine, the risk factor entailed is as  very high when you are talking about a back that is going  in the initial two rounds.

 

 Four Very High Risk Fantasy  Football Studs
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A Few 2012 FantasyFootball Draft Mock ADP Bargains and Sleepers

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From http://www.tulsaworld.com/blogs/ sportspost.aspx?Some_early_fantasy_football_sleepers/44-15170:

QB Jay Cutler, Bears: Stop laughing. New scheme that made Daunte Culpepper a fantasy stud. He gets back the guy who catch more than 100 of his passes a few seasons ago, Brandon Marshall. Those other receivers who have been forced to be the No. 1 guy are allowed to go to their natural positions. The new running back Michael Bush won't catch the ball much, forcing more throws. That might easily be 30 touchdowns.

QB Matt Flynn, Seahawks: He has people to throw to and the offense can run the ball. A bad defense means he will be on the field a lot.

RB Fred Jackson, Bills: With a better defense comes more carries for a running back. Jackson was a stud before getting hurt. He has no competition and right now is ranked way too low. Could be a top 10 guy.

LaMichael James, 49ers: Could be the next Darren Sproles. The 49ers aren't going to become a passing threat with Alex Smith under center. Frank Gore is still your main man, but I see a lot of screens coming out of this team. Without a No. 1 receiver (apologies to the unretired Randy Moss) James could be the one getting a lot of attention.

Felix Jones, Cowboys: He finally gets one of the league's best fullbacks to run behind. DeMarco Murray is in the mix, sure, but Jones may be the home run threat you can get a lot later. Mike Goodson, Raiders: So far, Darren McFadden can't stay healthy. Now that Michael Bush is in Chicago, Goodson is the only guy left. And he's shown he can get yards behind a decent offensive line.

Doug Martin Bucs: If Robert Griffin III doesn't win rookie of the year, I think this guy does. He is going to start and be on a better coached team than took the field last year. Oh, and the new coach likes to run down people's throats.

WR Robert Meachem, Chargers: The BTW Hornet is now the No. 1 threat in San Diego who feed receivers a lot. Can he fight a double team, which he never had in New Orleans. I say yes.

Reggie Wayne, Colts: Bad defense. Decent rookie quarterback. No running game. If you needed a third starter, he might be a steal late in the draft.

Rueben Randle Giants: I would say that the Giants know something about wide receivers. They have been able to find talent in the draft and in free agency.

 A Few 2012 FantasyFootball Draft Mock  ADP Bargains and Sleepers
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