PODCAST: Applying Trading Fundamentals to Sports Betting

After 15-years as a trader, Andreas Koukorinis has gone on to co-found a tech startup which uses AI and machine learning to trade sports as a financial product.

From listening to this episode, you’ll soon notice that Andreas is passionate about applying rigorous trading principles to nascent markets. And you’ll also hear about the primary drivers behind his predictions on sports games…

Click here to listen now

The Human Mind Needs to Be Rewired for Sports Betting Success


Source: The human mind tends to overweigh small sample recent events, not taking into account randomness.

Artificial Intelligence can be taught to be more patient than the human mind when assessing sports improvement/degradation.

Introduction to NFL Betting

Guide to Betting on the NFL

The NFL is the National Football League of America and is USA professional football’s highest level. The annual season ends with the Super Bowl which is the grand finale and one of the most anticipated, viewed and bet on sporting events in the world.

Sports betting on the NFL is hugely popular and many bettors follow and bet on this league. There is a huge range of bets available that range from futures bets that can be placed well in advance, to live betting options which can be placed during a game as it unfolds.

NFL Betting at Online Sportsbooks

Online betting or using the mobile platform is the preferred method of placing bets on the NFL. It offers convenience and a wider range of betting options. Bettors should however make sure that they are legally accepted at the site and that the site is licensed and trusted.

When an online sportsbook is trusted and offers the best NFL betting options, it will provide top security, safe and secure banking methods, bonus offers and NFL odds that are as accurate as possible. A top sportsbook will also feature a huge array of markets, and whether you want to get great AFL betting odds, bet on horse races, or wager on who will win in a tennis tournament, you should be able to do so all in one place.

Tips for Successful NFL Betting

Choosing trusted online sportsbooks will mean the best possible information about which teams are favoured to win games, and which teams are predicted to make it to the Super Bowl. Consider this information along with any changes in team members, any injuries and any other type of occurrence that may change the odds.

Finding the best possible types of bets is also beneficial as bets range in type, value and have different odds of winning. It is best to have, at the very least, a basic understanding of how the different NFL betting options work.

The Various NFL Betting Options

Bettors will find a wide selection when it comes to the different types of bets that they can place on the NFL, or even the Super Bowl. Each site has its own selection of bets and rules about placing them, so choose a site that has the best options.

The NFL is considered to be the sporting event offering the most betting options, so there is plenty to choose from. Betting options with better odds and live betting options do tend to offer lower pay outs and vice versa, but there are several value bets around too.

Bets can be placed on who will win a game, who will win the Super Bowl and what the point spread will be for a team. Bets for the team to score the most at the first quarter and the first half are available along with predicting whether the total score will be more than a predetermined number or less than a predetermined number. Futures bets are available and are placed on any particular game or NFL event that is to come.

Parlay bets are those consisting of various props and betting options where any sort of possible occurrence can be bet on. These are most common with live betting and include anything from which team will be reaching the end zone first and which of the two teams in a game will be scoring first to which entertainer will be opening the Super Bowl.

NFL betting is great fun, and it can be very lucrative too.

Amazing NFL Betting Statistic

 

No NFL Superbowl Champion(currently Denver)  has covered the pointspread for the first 5 games of the following year :).  Denver is 4-0 Against the Spread this year!

 

Two NFL Betting Trends That You Can Take to the Bank!

 

Since 1991, NFL teams that win back-to-back games straight up as an underdog are just 40-68-2 Against The Spread in their next game if they are on the road and not getting more than 7 points.  In fact they are  19-48-1 ATS if visiting a non-divisional opponent.  What is the psychology driving this trend? Simply put: such teams are less motivated while their opponent is on high alert!

Home underdogs are 173-128-9 ATS if they won straight up as an underdog the previous week.   They feel confident!

Week 15 Betting News

Two pieces of news regarding NFL quarterbacks yesterday had small impacts on the betting lines in Las Vegas.

First, reports said Johnny Manziel would be making his first career start for the Browns. Then, Cam Newton was involved in a car accident in Charlotte. Newton has been released from the hospital but appears very unlikely to play.

The Panthers were adjusted from 5.5- to 4.5-point favorites for Sunday’s home game against the Bucs following news that Newton will probably not play. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook was the first bet shop in Nevada to re-open wagering on the game. The total re-opened 43, the same number it was at when the game was taken off the Westgate board earlier Tuesday.

Since being reposted, the point spread has been adjusted to Carolina -3.5 and the total to 42.

Derek Anderson, who played in place of Newton in the Panthers’ 20-14 win at Tampa Bay in Week 1, is expected to get the starting nod again this week. Carolina was a 5.5-point underdog in that game.

Newton reportedly has two transverse process fractures in his lower back, an injury similar to the one Cowboys QB Tony Romo suffered in a Monday night loss to Washington in Week 8 that kept him out of Dallas’ loss to Arizona the following week.

The ultimate 2-point adjustment from Newton to Anderson is about what we expected.

“I’d say 2 to 2.5-points if Anderson goes, but I will say that Anderson has been very effective when getting into games,” said The Linemakers on Sporting News’ Kenny White. “He started in the opener and won at Tampa Bay, and he’s completed 70 percent of his passes between that start and four other appearances.”

Anderson completed 24 of 34 passes for 230 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Bucs in Week 1.

Here’s Johnny

When news broke that Manziel will start against the Bengals, Station Casinos and the South Point sports books immediately adjusted the Browns from a 1-point underdog to a pick ‘em, an indication that the betting market respects Manziel a touch more than it does Brian Hoyer.

Most Las Vegas books, though, stood pat at Cincinnati -1, while the Westgate had already moved its line to a pick ’em after opening Sunday night at Cincy -1.

Neither The Linemakers’ Kenny White nor the Westgate’s Ed Salmons made an adjustment to their power ratings because of the QB change.

After a solid start to the season, Hoyer’s play has fallen off dramatically, as he’s gone just 75-for-151 for one touchdown and eight interceptions in the four games since the Browns beat the Bengals in Cincinnati 24-3 on Nov. 6.

“Hoyer didn’t do himself any favors to hold the job after his poor play in a one-point home loss to Indianapolis,” said The Linemakers’ Micah Roberts. “The Browns have to make something happen quickly and win out, and this is a gamble that has to be made. Manziel is still raw and he will make mistakes that Hoyer won’t, but he can also make some plays on his own and possibly be the difference between losing tough games like last week and winning. It’s that spark that was the reason for drafting him. …

“It was a good move by the Browns staff to start Manziel, but there is no effect to the number because Manziel is so green.”

Week 7 NFL Betting Trends

1. Andy Reid-coached teams are 10-5 against the number (66.7 percent) and 13-2 straight-up (86.7 percent) in the first game after the bye.

2. The Patriots are 5-3-1 against the spread (62.5 percent) and 7-2 straight-up (77.8 percent) on Thursdays in Bill Belichick’s tenure.

3. Since 1978, teams coming off a tie are 16-18 against the number (47.1 percent) and 13-21 straight-up (38.2 percent) in the next game.

4. Since Kurt Warner retired after the 2009 season, Ken Whisenhunt-coached teams are 22-30-2 against the spread (42.3 percent). In the previous 54-game span, Whisenhunt-led teams were 30-23-1 vs. the number (56.6 percent).

5. The Ravens are 40-5 straight-up (88.9 percent) and 25-19-1 against the number (56.8 percent) at home under John Harbaugh.

Shocking NFL Betting System

When it comes to NFL wagering systems, there is one that stands apart above everything else. The bitter truth, however, is that it typically just offers one play a year, and has actually had many years without a single play.

The system is merely to bet against any NFL team that has scored 30 or more points in two straight games, while permitting 10 or fewer points in its last 2 games and the team is playing a non-divisional opponent. That’s all there is to it.
Considering that since 1989, the system is 15-1, being defeated only in 2008. The record tells you that there aren’t many plays, however you most definitely want to observe when they do occur.

There was just one play in 2012, which was the New York Giants +7 against the 49ers. San Francisco was coming into the game off a 34-0 clunk of the New York Jets and followed that up with a 45-3 pasting of the Buffalo Bills.

The 49ers were never ever in the game against the Giants, getting crushed 26-3!

Do You Obey the Fundamental Law of NFL Betting?

There is no “inside info” when it concerns Pro football wagering as the info age has just made it impossible to keep information secret. Once we understand this fact we can consider only one main NFL wagering statistic above all others and that is the pointspread. The oddsmaker is going to base his NFL betting line on just how the public is going to bet. This can offer you valuable insight without doing other work! You can check out the Pro football betting line which side the oddsmaker wants to win. Often that will be the underdog considering that the oddsmaker understands the favorite is usually getting pounded with public money in NFL wagering. This is not always the situation, yet it occurs typically. You could look purely at the pointspread and base your bet on which party the oddsmaker wishes in NFL wagering. Specifically, this will be side of the bet that is drawing least money!

Most impulsive NFL bettors will take the favorite. The main herd of gamblers lose at NFL wagering due to the fact that they decline to think about the underdog at all!. That is a significant mistake. If you really want the best NFL tip it is to behave  like the oddsmaker. Typically the sportsbooks make easy cash with NFL betting so if you could determine what teams they would like to win and then wager those groups, you have a likelihood of gaining consistent  profits in Pro football wagering! Just watch which way the pointspread moves during the week and bet contrary to the movement!