2017 NFL Football Futures Odds For Winning Super Bowl LII!

Right after the New England Patriots were crowned once more as the Super Bowl champions, oddsmakers were busy at work determining the futures odds for winning Super Bowl LII. Of course, you can probably guess at which teams are the early favorites without too much trouble, but where do you place other teams? This year’s season hasn’t even started but already there are those making their NFL betting picks according to SkyBook a top online sportsbook.

 

While it’s too early to even take a wild guess at which teams can make it all the way to the Super Bowl, based on the odds it might not be too bad of an idea of laying down some money right now while the odds may be soft. In case you’re wondering here are Super Bowl LII odds as they stand right now:

 

ODDS TO WIN SUPERBOWL LII – ALL IN       

 

ARIZONA CARDINALS  +2800

ATLANTA FALCONS       +1000

BALTIMORE RAVENS   +3500

BUFFALO BILLS              +8000

CAROLINA PANTHERS +2500

CINCINNATI BENGALS +4000

CLEVELAND BROWNS  +20000

DALLAS COWBOYS         +900

DENVER BRONCOS         +1400

DETROIT LIONS                +3500

GREEN BAY PACKERS    +1000

HOUSTON TEXANS          +1600

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS   +2800

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +8000

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS          +2000

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +5000

LOS ANGELES RAMS             +12000

MIAMI DOLPHINS                 +4500

MINNESOTA VIKINGS         +2800

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +250

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +3500

NEW YORK GIANTS  +1800

NEW YORK JETS       +20000

OAKLAND RAIDERS +1000

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES  +4000

PITTSBURGH STEELERS  +1200

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS    +15000

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS        +1000

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS   +3000

TENNESSEE TITANS                +5000

WASHINGTON REDSKINS    +5000

 

See anything you like? At +3500 (a $100 bet bags you $3.500 bucks if the team wins), perhaps you  like the New Orleans Saints. Ditto goes for the Kansas City Chiefs. Of course, you could go for the long shot and place a bet on the the New York Jets at +20000 or perhaps the San Francisco 49ers at +15000. But maybe you think the Patriots will make it once more, in which case you’d only see $250 for your $100.

 

Then again, it’s not over till the fat lady sings and every team has a shot at being this year’s champs, so might as well get your bets in early before the odds change ! 

OMG! NFL Wagering and College Football Wagering are Not The Same!

 

There are at least a half-dozen factors that separate college football betting from NFL betting. For starters, action on college football is much more likely to come from sophisticated bettors, known as “sharps” or “wiseguys”, who often possess some insight or kernel of information that may provide them with an edge against the house. Experienced bet takers know not to treat heavy activity on an obscure game, such as East Carolina versus Wake Forest, as casually as they might deal with increased wagering interest on a marquee NFL game such as a Redskins-Cowboys confrontation. For that reason, bookmakers usually move college football betting lines quickly, often one full point at a time. In general, it takes more money to move an NFL betting line(for example, NFL betting at Skybook ) and when it is moved, usually it is by only half a point.

Largely because of a lack of proficiency in the kicking game, key numbers such as 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14 are not nearly as sacrosanct in college football betting as they are in the NFL. College football games just do not fall on those numbers as often as they do in NFL contests.

We may never again see a three-touchdown favorite in the NFL but lines of -30, -40, or even -50 are not that uncommon in the college gridiron game. Oddsmakers and bookmakers also find college totals more difficult to gauge because some coaches try to impress those who have a vote in the polls by running up the score. Others, feel that a third-string player’s reward for practicing all week is to get to play in a blowout. It’s just these types of unique uncertainties that compel bookmakers to shift college “over/under” numbers more quickly than they move NFL totals.

It’s also the nature of college football that personnel change every year. This makes early season evaluation more difficult and leads bet takers to move lines and totals more quickly, especially in September and early October when the season is still young. There is personnel movement in the NFL too, of course, but mostly it involves players of established ability moving from team to team. In college football, you’re always dealing with fresh faces.

By collective bargaining agreement, each week, the NFL publishes a comprehensive list of injured players and their status. Sure, there are mistakes and abuses and players who have been listed as “doubtful” have played while those regarded as “probable” have not but overall, the list is accurate. On the other hand, colleges are under no obligation to announce the status of injured or disciplined football players. This vagueness over availability sometimes can create opportunities in college football betting. Consequently, bookmakers are wary if too much wagering attention is paid to one team.

When it comes to parlay card numbers, you are much more apt to see a slight gap between those prices printed on cards and those posted on the board in the NFL than you are in college football. The key element is that bookmakers can more accurately predict the public inclination for an NFL game than they can for a college football game. It’s not unusual then for traditionally popular team such as Dallas or a “hot” team such as Oakland, to be listed as a 7 1/2-point favorite on a parlay card but just a 6 1/2 or 7-point choice on the board. Through experience, bookmakers know that “public” teams such as the Cowboys, as well as “now” teams such as the Raiders, will be more aggressively played on parlay cards than they are straight up.

Clearly, understanding the differences between college football betting and NFL betting is essential to winning.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN COLLEGE AND PRO FOOTBALL:

College Football:

‘Wiseguys’ frequently supply the action

College football betting lines often are moved by a full point at a time

Key numbers are not as important

Personnel changes can make early season analysis difficult

Information on injuries is not always accessible

There’s usually not a disparity between parlay card and board numbers

NFL:

Money from public is prevalent

Betting lines are usually moved by a half-point at a time

Key numbers are VERY important

Personnel changes are less volatile and easier to evaluate

Information on injuries usually is accessible

Parlay card numbers sometimes are intentionally different than prices on the board.

NFL 2016-7 Super Bowl Dark Horses

Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons are 7-4, and just defeated the Arizona Cardinals 38-19 at home. The Falcons are ranked 4th in total offense, and 3rd in passing offense. QB Matt Ryan has looked much more comfortable with an improved offensive line and a steady, reliable run game in Devonte Freeman. The pass defense is ranked 30th but the run defense is ranked 9th, and they are +3 in turnover differential. The Falcons have always been a dominant team in the Georgia Dome, and if they continue to play at a high level they could secure a home playoff game. With the balance they have on offense and the improving defense, we could see this team making a run in the playoffs.
New York Giants: The Giants are 8-3 and are on a 6 game win streak. The Cowboys are the obvious pick to win the NFC East, but the Giants could still sneak in the wild card and make some noise. Eli Manning is an elite QB, and they have one of the best WR trios in football with Odell Beckham Jr., Victor Cruz and rookie Sterling Shepard. The Giants last two super bowl wins, they barely snuck into the playoffs then caught fire. This team has the potential to do that again, with Manning they are never out of a game. The defense has drastically improved from last year as well, ranking 16th in total defense and 5th against the run. The NFC East is always crazy, and we could definitely see the Giants spoiling the Cowboys super bowl run and make a deep run of their own.
Denver Broncos: This is an unconventional pick from the AFC West, most would pick the Kansas City Chiefs. We like the Broncos because of their suffocating defense, they won a Super Bowl with great defense last year and they could make a run again. QB Trevor Siemian has played well, throwing for 2,396 yards 15 TDs and only 7 INTs. The Broncos have proven they can win b y not beating themselves and letting the defense keep the scores close. They still have an opportunity to clinch a playoff berth with games at the Chiefs and a home finale with the Raiders. If they sneak in, they will be a tough out with that stout defense and can cause problems to the explosive offenses in the AFC.

[Analysis by NFL expert Preston Rowe]

Amazing NFL Betting Statistic

 

No NFL Superbowl Champion(currently Denver)  has covered the pointspread for the first 5 games of the following year :).  Denver is 4-0 Against the Spread this year!

 

Top 5 NFL MVP Contenders in 2016-7

There is no greater on-field honor for a player in the NFL than to receive the Most Valuable Player Award. The fact that only a single defensive player has ever won the MVP award explains why Super Bowl odds are so absurdly in favor of offensive players to win this year, with the top five candidates most likely to take the award in 2016 including the following:

1). Cam Newton

Many a player knows how to stay in the pocket and make all the right throws. Newton does all that, and he can also escape the pocket and run. With Kevin Benjamin returning to complement Devin Funchess’ abilities, Newton’s chances of winning the MVP award this time round are relatively decent. Though very few players have been crowned MVP two years in a row, Newton has a legitimate shot at taking the award home this year.

2). Aaron Rodgers

The Green Bay Packers underperformed in 2015, and Aaron Rodgers wasn’t exactly at his best. However, his failures in 2015 haven’t made him any less of a phenomenal quarterback. Clearly, he is determined to reclaim his throne.

With Jordy Nelson (who just recovered from an ACL injury) returning this season, and Randall Cobb having already proven his mettle in previous seasons, Rodgers has all the tools at his disposal to take the crown in 2016.

Some people are also quite excited about Eddie Lacy’s performance this season. Following a successful campaign in 2014, Lacy put on a few pounds, pounds that he has since worked to lose, making him one of Rodger’s more reliable allies this time round.

3). JJ Watt

The general consensus is that Watt is the best defensive player the NFL has today. If there is one defensive player that could possibly take the MVP award in 2016, it is Watt. Coming in second in votes a few seasons ago, Watt has cemented his position in his particular field by winning the ‘Defensive Player of the Year’ award three times in a row.

Watt’s power and finesse have enabled him to overcome many double teams, and you do not find too many defensive players with a combination of power and finesse in the NFL.

4). Antonio Brown

Antonio Brown is a legitimately impressive player. The fact that Receivers do not generally receive awards says a lot about Antonio Brown, that he is such a serious contender for the MVP award.

With 1,834 yards on 136 catches and ten touchdowns, Brown could have accomplished so much more if he had played the entire season. Arguably the best Wide Receiver in the NFL, the Steelers are going to depend on him to bring them glory.

If all goes well, Brown could actually break Calvin Johnson’s receiving yards record.

5). Russell Wilson

Wilson’s ability to win games is undisputed. He proved it this last season. For a long time, people saw Wilson as a great running quarterback that was most comfortable while throwing outside the pocket.

This image was shattered when Marshawn Lynch was injured. Wilson started throwing the ball more, this allowing him to show what he could really do. Wilson has a decent chance of taking the MVP award.

 

Two NFL Betting Trends That You Can Take to the Bank!

 

Since 1991, NFL teams that win back-to-back games straight up as an underdog are just 40-68-2 Against The Spread in their next game if they are on the road and not getting more than 7 points.  In fact they are  19-48-1 ATS if visiting a non-divisional opponent.  What is the psychology driving this trend? Simply put: such teams are less motivated while their opponent is on high alert!

Home underdogs are 173-128-9 ATS if they won straight up as an underdog the previous week.   They feel confident!

Computer Forecast: Green Bay Packers To Win Superbowl 50.

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Who will win Superbowl 50? Our computer Beardog is picking the Green Bay Packers over close rivals New England, Seattle and Dallas.   Sportsbooks have set the betting odds  at 6.5-1.

It will be inspiring and poetic for the Packers to win the prize after being derailed in last year’s NFL Championship game. Once again, the NFL’s smallest market cap team, will prove to be the best. Some teams would never recover from the trauma of blowing a 19-7 lead with 4 minutes to go as the Packers did in Seattle. The Hawks comeback from down 16-0 at one point was the largest ever in a conference title game. Such a breakdown is not consistent with the heart Green Bay has shown over the years and we are sure they will bounce back strong and determined.

Let’s state the obvious: in a quarterback driven league, Aaron Rodgers is the most effective and most consistently lethal at his position. The Packers ensured he did not lose his vital receivers and strong offensive line in the off season. We don’t think the loss of Jordy Nelson to injury will be a large negative. Furthermore, running back Eddie Lacy is one of the very best in the game. Astute readers will know that we like to see the quarterback to also have a strong running option. The Green Bay defense may only be a little above average but by coupling Clay Matthews with Julius Peppers they have their share of play makers.

The key to this year’s success is to simply play as well as they did last year but to gain the home-field advantage for the Championship game. Played on the frozen tundra of Lambeau field, the Seattle crowd will obviously not be a factor in the game. As the strongest team in the NFC North, they are in position to have the best win-loss record.

Reaching the Superbowl in Santa Clara, California will be very exciting, especially if Rodgers plays New England (winner of Superbowl 49) with Tom Brady since both quarterbacks grew up in Northern California and are considered the best in the game. Green Bay won the first two Superbowls at a time before it became a national holiday. It will only be fitting for them to win the 50th Superbowl as well!

Chicago Bears Bad News Again In 2015-6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How many games will the Chicago Bears win this year? Sportsbooks have set the betting line at 7.0.

 

 But our artificial intelligence computer Beardog has the Bears ranked 29th of 32 teams with only Washington,  Oakland and Tennessee ranked lower. With Green Bay, Detroit and Minnesota ranked 4th, 11th and 19th ,respectively, Chicago is simply outmatched in their division. The bottom line is that the Bears are very weak on defense, careless and aging on offense and  face a  tough schedule in 2015-6. Newly acquired coach John Fox is in for a long season.

 

Despite a lot of offensive talent on the roster, 2014 was a disaster for the Bears.  They only won 5 games and averaged less than 20 points per game. This led to the firing of coach Marc Trestman and the trading away   of wide receiver Brandon Marshall to the New York Jets. In 2015 Alshon Jeffery will assume the top wide receiver spot and be paired with  rookie WR Kevin White out of West Virginia. We also see newly acquired Eddie Royal and TE Martellus Bennett being targeted. This is only an average group of receivers. Last season, QB Jay Cutler had the highest completion percentage and most touchdowns thrown in a season in his career. But sadly, Mr. Cutler simply did not deliver at critical moments. He was responsible for 21 turnovers!

 

If Cutler, does not improve, look for him to be yanked early in the season and the tumultous process of finding a suitable replacement beginning. Although he rushed for more than 1000 yards last season, Matt Forte  carried the ball less than in recent previous years. In 2015, we see Forte possibly having a big year with increased workload as the play calling will be more run-oriented with  coach  Fox. But it is equally possible his durability will start slipping at this point in his career. The Bears offense is also crippled by a poor offensive line.

 

On top of these troubles the once feared defense gave up 27.6  points per game. The defense has not been significantly upgraded in the offseason.  As evidence, in the third preseason game against Cincinatti the defense was completely flat and listless in a 21-10 loss in which the Bengals completed their first 13 passes.

 

And, unfortunately, The Bears schedule is brutal with their opponents having a combined .531 winning percentage, 5 of their first 8  are against playoff teams from 2014! Specifically, they play Green Bay, Arizona, at Seattle, Oakland, at Kansas City, at Detroit, bye, Minnesota, at San Diego, at St. Louis, Denver, at Green Bay, San Francisco, Washington, at Minnesota, at Tampa Bay, and finish with Detroit at home. With Jay Cutler, a weak defense  and a challenging schedule it is very hard to envision where 7 or more wins will come from.

Don’t Overlook These NFL MVP Candidates for 2015-6


It is fun and potentially lucrative to bet on the NFL MVP award winner.

It seems like all we hear about these days is Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Tom Brady and Russell Wilson. Bla-bla-bla….But we give you four other  NFL offensive players who are rated as longshots but have a decent chance to win the award:

 

 Adrian Peterson, Running Back, Minnesota Vikings at 8-1:

A lot of people are overlooking Adrian Peterson due to his off field issues. They are forgetting that he is one of the most talented running backs of all time!

The Vikings lost four of  nine games last season by a combined eight points! With Peterson now back in the fold and additions on both sides of the ball, Minnesota can do some serious damage. At age  30  he has nearly 2,300 total touches under his belt. However, he’s had an entire season to rest! He’s  averaged nearly 1,700 total yards and 13 touchdowns in his first seven NFL seasons.  If he performs similarly he could  easily walk off with the MVP trophy!

 

 Tony Romo, Quarterback, Dallas Cowboys at 15-1:

Tony Romo can be a very effective and dangerous quarterback. Last season with the assistance of Demarco Murray , Dez Bryant and a strong offensive line he led the Dallas Cowboys to a 12-4 record. He led the league with a 69.9 completion percentage and a 113.2 quarterback rating. He threw for over 3,700 yards with 34 touchdowns and 9 interceptions.

If Dallas and Romo have another great season, he will have arrived into the elite category and will surely be a hot MVP candidate.

 

Antonio Brown, Wide Receiver, Pittsburgh Steelers at 15-1:

By now everybody recognizes the extraordinary productivity of Antonio Brown. If anybody is a potential dark horse candidate for the MVP award it is surely him. Last year’s season was simply phenomenal.His 129 receptions were second-most in league history. The 1,698 receiving yards Brown put up were sixth in league history. What if he improves on these numbers? How could voters ignore him as they did last year?

 

 Philip Rivers, Quarterback, San Diego Chargers at 20-1:

OMG! Phillip Rivers seems to get better with age!

He put up nearly 4,300 yards with 31 touchdowns last year. Unfortunately the Chargers lacked a running game. They ranked 31st in the NFL in yards per rush at 3.3 and 30th at 80.4 yards per game. Hopefully, now that the Chargers added Melvin Gordon in the first round of the 2015 NFL draft, Rivers should have more support on the ground. Throughout history the elite quarterbacks have typically had such a solid running option to go to. San Diego is loaded in the passing game and has one of the most underrated offensive lines in the NFL.  If San Diego wins the AFC West over Peyton Manning’s Broncos don’t be surprised if Rivers is getting lots of MVP love!

 

Why Smart Bettors are Flocking to the Buffalo Bills for 2015-6

 

 

How many games will the Buffalo Bills win this year? Sportsbooks have set the betting line at 8.5.  Surprisingly, our Artificial Intelligence computer Beardog has the Bills ranked 5th behind New England, Seattle, Dallas and Green Bay due to its strong defense.

 

Buffalo has a new coach in Rex Ryan whose unusual formations, blitzes and overall defensive expertise should further strengthen the defense. We project the defensive line to have about 62 sacks this season. Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus and Jerry Hughes are as deadly a unit as any in the NFL. They forced 6 fumbles last year.Last year Buffalo was fourth in yards and points given up. There is absolutely no reason that prowess shouldn’t continue this season.

 

If Tom Brady’s suspension is upheld the Bills and their awesome defense will face a green Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 2. Ralph Wilson Stadium is one of the most difficult stadiums for opposing teams to play in due to the rowdy fans and bitter weather.Most of the Bills strong opponents in the next season will be played at home.

 

Hopefully Rex Ryan is smart enough to not play E.J. Manuel. With Manuel on the bench, Tyrod Taylor or Kyle Orton will be in, thus their quarterback problems should dissipate especially if Taylor plays the first game. But in any event Sammy Watkins is a highly talented receiver who we project to have 70 catches and 1000 yards in 2015.

 

Finally, the running back by committee should keep the backfield healthy for what looks like a productive season. LeSean McCoy, recently acquired from the Philadelphia Eagles, is expected to have  recovered  from a hamstring pull and will be supported by capable veteran Fred Jackson. In addition, the Bills also have Boobie Dixon as well as Karlos Williams the impressive rookie from Florida State. Look for Ryan to pound the ball on the ground, attack with his defense and roll easily to 9 victories or more!