Game Preview: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday, October 15, 2017)

Riding high after their huge victory against the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday, the Green Bay Packers are riding high as they enter brand-new U.S. Bank Stadium this Sunday, as 3.5-point favorites against the Minnesota Vikings according to NFL betting odds for Packers vs Vikings gameAnd that’s exactly why they could be in position for a big upset this weekend…

When we think of the Vikings, we first think of their defense, thanks to the organizational philosophy laid down by head coach Mike Zimmer. Minnesota enters Week 6 of the NFL season with the 11th-ranked defense in the NFL. They have star players at every level of the defense. Defensive end Everson Griffen is third in the NFL in sacks (six). Cornerback Xavier Rhodes has been one of the best in football this season. Outside linebacker Anthony Barr is a freakish athlete that does so many things for them.

But even with the in-and-out from Sam Bradford due to various injuries, this offense has been deceptively good as well. Minnesota actually averages more passing yards per game (357 — 5th most in the NFL) than Green Bay (336.6 — 11th most in the NFL). It’s even more disparate when you look at each team’s rushing attack: Minnesota averages 118.2 yards per game (#11 in the NFL) versus Green Bay’s 91.6 yards per game (22nd in the NFL). In place of promising rookie Dalvin Cook, who was lost to a season-ending injury to his ACL, Jerick McKinnon provided a spark to Minnesota’s offense, evidenced by his 146 total yards against the Chicago Bears on Monday night. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs is in the midst of a breakout season of his own, sitting in 5th place in the NFL with 395 receiving yards. And the Vikings are just as likely to spread the ball around to the rest of their offense, as they are to force-feed their stars. On Monday evening, quarterback Case Keenum — playing in place of the injured Bradford — threw 16 of his 21 passing attempts to his running backs and tight ends.

Of course, the great equalizer in this entire game — or any game Green Bay plays in — is Aaron Rodgers. At some point, it just feels like we’re going to run out of superlatives to describe his level of play. Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback of all time right now, but Rodgers is the best in the game as of today. His stats don’t tell the whole story (although his league-leading 13 touchdown passes certainly help), but the way he puts the Packers on his shoulders, week after week, is unlike anything we’re seeing in the league today (this side of New England, anyway).

Minnesota’s defense has held Rodgers to less than 220 passing yards in each of the last three games these two have played in Minnesota. Of course, the Packers are 2-1 in in those games, thanks to the balance provided by the Packers rushing attack.

Minnesota handled two very potent offense at home already: New Orleans in Week 1, and Tampa Bay in Week 3. They should be well aware of this, given that they play them twice a year, but if Green Bay is not careful, they could have their hands full.

But as of right now, Green Bay looks like they’re one of the two best teams in the NFC, alongside the Atlanta Falcons. While this game should be a really good matchup, the Vikings aren’t quite as dangerous as the Packers… or as Rodgers, anyway.

My Pick: Green Bay.

 

The Human Mind Needs to Be Rewired for Sports Betting Success


Source: The human mind tends to overweigh small sample recent events, not taking into account randomness.

Artificial Intelligence can be taught to be more patient than the human mind when assessing sports improvement/degradation.

ALERT: FF-Winners.Com Warns On the 2017-8 Falcon Team: TAKE THE UNDER!

Some Las Vegas oddsmakers have sent the “over/under” on the win total for the 2017 Atlanta Falcons at 9.5 wins. At least initially, that number seems ridiculously low, given the fact that this team finished with an 11-5 record last season, and beat the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers en route to representing the NFC in Super Bowl LI this past February.

And yet, we’re not only telling you to bet the “under,” wagering that the Falcons will win less than 9.5 games this year, but we’re also saying that the 2017 Atlanta Falcons will not only fail to win the NFC South division this year, but also fail to make the playoffs.

Here’s a fact for you: over the last 20 years, the team that lost the Super Bowl failed to make the playoffs 9 times. Over the last 15 years, the Super Bowl loser failed to make the playoffs the ensuing year. In other words, it’s basically a 50/50 chance that if you lose the Super Bowl, you’re not making the postseason the following year.

But specifically, in terms of the Falcons, there are two big reasons why we’re confident enough to make such a statement:

1. We think everyone overlooked an Atlanta defense that really wasn’t all that great

2. The difference between Kyle Shanahan’s offense and Steve Sarkisian’s offense is going to be jarring, in a really, really bad way if you’re a Falcons fan.

While the offense was busy putting up franchise-best numbers last season, the defense finished 26th in defensive DVOA last season, 25th in total yards allowed per game, and 28th in passing yards allowed per game. They allowed the fifth-most touchdown passes in the NFL to opponents last year, and didn’t have anyone on the entire team (outside of Vic Beasley Jr.) register more than five sacks. Does that sound like a “good defense” to you? In fact, name a player on the Falcons defense, outside of maybe Beasley, who opposing teams really need to worry about. If you polled 100 relatively knowledgeable NFL fans, could they name more than three players on the Falcons defense?

Atlanta plays in a division where they’ll face Drew Brees, Cam Newton, or Jameis Winston in more than a third of their games this year; that’s not even mentioning the fact that Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson are all on teams who are on the Falcons’ schedule this year as well.

And before you say: “well, Atlanta can win those games in a shootout,” that brings us to the Shanahan-Sarkisian issue, with that issue specifically being the fact that the Falcons are replacing one of the BEST offensive minds in the NFL with someone who has NEVER called plays or ran an offense in the NFL at any point in his career.

What Shanahan did for the Falcons offense last year was his career’s magnum opus. He found a way to masterfully utilize Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Taylor Gabriel, Mohamed Sanu, the incomparable Julio Jones, and a veritable pupu platter of tight ends, taking all of those random ingredients and concocting an offering in a way that would’ve made an Iron Chef proud.

But Shanahan is gone, and being replaced by Steve Sarkisian. Here’s what you need to know about about Sarkisian: 1) the last time he was a head coach, he was fired because of a history of alcohol abuse; and 2) Sarkisian has never been an offensive coordinator in the NFL.

In the three seasons prior to 2016, Atlanta finished 21st, 12th, and 20th in the NFL in points per game. So tell us what sounds more realistic: Sarkisian implementing another league-leading, well-oiled offensive juggernaut? Or Atlanta’s offense reverting back to the mean, thanks to a coordinator who was so toxic that most college programs gave tremendous pause to the idea of hiring him?

So, scoff at our less 9.5 wins projection. Go ahead and overlook the fact that, in the three seasons before last year, Atlanta failed to reach nine wins, or the fact that they’ve ranked in the bottom six in the NFL in points allowed per game in three of the past four seasons.

We stand by our prediction that the Falcons will be suffering the “Super Bowl loser hangover” this upcoming season.

Introduction to NFL Betting

Guide to Betting on the NFL

The NFL is the National Football League of America and is USA professional football’s highest level. The annual season ends with the Super Bowl which is the grand finale and one of the most anticipated, viewed and bet on sporting events in the world.

Sports betting on the NFL is hugely popular and many bettors follow and bet on this league. There is a huge range of bets available that range from futures bets that can be placed well in advance, to live betting options which can be placed during a game as it unfolds.

NFL Betting at Online Sportsbooks

Online betting or using the mobile platform is the preferred method of placing bets on the NFL. It offers convenience and a wider range of betting options. Bettors should however make sure that they are legally accepted at the site and that the site is licensed and trusted.

When an online sportsbook is trusted and offers the best NFL betting options, it will provide top security, safe and secure banking methods, bonus offers and NFL odds that are as accurate as possible. A top sportsbook will also feature a huge array of markets, and whether you want to get great AFL betting odds, bet on horse races, or wager on who will win in a tennis tournament, you should be able to do so all in one place.

Tips for Successful NFL Betting

Choosing trusted online sportsbooks will mean the best possible information about which teams are favoured to win games, and which teams are predicted to make it to the Super Bowl. Consider this information along with any changes in team members, any injuries and any other type of occurrence that may change the odds.

Finding the best possible types of bets is also beneficial as bets range in type, value and have different odds of winning. It is best to have, at the very least, a basic understanding of how the different NFL betting options work.

The Various NFL Betting Options

Bettors will find a wide selection when it comes to the different types of bets that they can place on the NFL, or even the Super Bowl. Each site has its own selection of bets and rules about placing them, so choose a site that has the best options.

The NFL is considered to be the sporting event offering the most betting options, so there is plenty to choose from. Betting options with better odds and live betting options do tend to offer lower pay outs and vice versa, but there are several value bets around too.

Bets can be placed on who will win a game, who will win the Super Bowl and what the point spread will be for a team. Bets for the team to score the most at the first quarter and the first half are available along with predicting whether the total score will be more than a predetermined number or less than a predetermined number. Futures bets are available and are placed on any particular game or NFL event that is to come.

Parlay bets are those consisting of various props and betting options where any sort of possible occurrence can be bet on. These are most common with live betting and include anything from which team will be reaching the end zone first and which of the two teams in a game will be scoring first to which entertainer will be opening the Super Bowl.

NFL betting is great fun, and it can be very lucrative too.

Video Lecture: Computer Power Rankings and Football Analytics

This video covers the basics and some of the nuances of developing and using computer
models to forecast football games.

Four Amazing Win-Loss Total OVER Wagers for NFL 2017

With training camp and the NFL preseason just a few weeks away surely you’re already gearing up to root for your favorite team.

It’s also more than likely that you’re certain of your team’s win-loss record for the season.

You’re not alone. Most sportsbooks have released their futures odds for NFL football betting and as expected there are some clear favorites.

But, which team will make it to Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis, Minnesota?

Will the Falcons or Patriots make it back to the big game? Or is there another team that will surprise?

To be certain, it’s impossible to predict the future. And, these predictions will likely be more wrong than right.

But, that doesn’t mean we can’t count on a few relevant factors:

It’s likely the Patriots, Steelers and Packers will all have at least 12 wins this season. It’d be hard to argue that these organizations are among the best in the league and they’ll likely do well in their weak divisions.

The Chiefs, Cowboys, Giants, and Raiders might also have at least 12 wins, but because the NFC East plays the AFC West this year it means they’ll be locking horns throughout the entire season and that has to be taxing.

As far as the AFC South and NFC South teams are concerned, they’re pretty much even and might have some surprises in store for us all.

Anyhow, here are some predictions for the 2017 NFL season:

New England Patriots OVER 12.5

The Patriots have lost just about three times per season in their last seven years. That’s including three trips to the big game and two championship rings.

So long as nothing happens to Brady, fans can count they’ll be good for at least 12 wins. They have a difficult test in Week 10 against the Broncos and then the following week against the Raiders in Mexico City, but if they can get past those two games they’ll be fine.

Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 10.5

The Steelers offense is among the best in the league with their deadly trio of Roethlisberger, Bell and Brown.

If Bell can stay healthy all season, they should breeze through the first five games. Their big test comes in Week 15 when they face the Patriots, but by that time they should have already accrued many more wins than the line is at right now.

Oakland Raiders OVER 9.5

Should Derek Carr heal well from his leg injury, the Raiders should be good for at least 11 wins. Three of their first four games are on the road, which will be difficult for them to win, but they should pull through with at least two wins. They also have a difficult game against the Chiefs in Week 7, but if Carr plays well they’ll get through it.

Denver Broncos OVER 8.5

If Trevor Siemian can be consistent, the Broncos are good for at least 11. But, if he plays as he did in the second half of last year’s season it’ll be a short year for the Broncos. They have a trap game in Week 9 versus the Eagles, with a game against Kansas City the previous week and one against the Patriots in the following week. But they’ll pull through.

2017 NFL Football Futures Odds For Winning Super Bowl LII!

Right after the New England Patriots were crowned once more as the Super Bowl champions, oddsmakers were busy at work determining the futures odds for winning Super Bowl LII. Of course, you can probably guess at which teams are the early favorites without too much trouble, but where do you place other teams? This year’s season hasn’t even started but already there are those making their NFL betting picks according to SkyBook a top online sportsbook.

 

While it’s too early to even take a wild guess at which teams can make it all the way to the Super Bowl, based on the odds it might not be too bad of an idea of laying down some money right now while the odds may be soft. In case you’re wondering here are Super Bowl LII odds as they stand right now:

 

ODDS TO WIN SUPERBOWL LII – ALL IN       

 

ARIZONA CARDINALS  +2800

ATLANTA FALCONS       +1000

BALTIMORE RAVENS   +3500

BUFFALO BILLS              +8000

CAROLINA PANTHERS +2500

CINCINNATI BENGALS +4000

CLEVELAND BROWNS  +20000

DALLAS COWBOYS         +900

DENVER BRONCOS         +1400

DETROIT LIONS                +3500

GREEN BAY PACKERS    +1000

HOUSTON TEXANS          +1600

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS   +2800

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +8000

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS          +2000

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +5000

LOS ANGELES RAMS             +12000

MIAMI DOLPHINS                 +4500

MINNESOTA VIKINGS         +2800

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +250

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +3500

NEW YORK GIANTS  +1800

NEW YORK JETS       +20000

OAKLAND RAIDERS +1000

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES  +4000

PITTSBURGH STEELERS  +1200

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS    +15000

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS        +1000

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS   +3000

TENNESSEE TITANS                +5000

WASHINGTON REDSKINS    +5000

 

See anything you like? At +3500 (a $100 bet bags you $3.500 bucks if the team wins), perhaps you  like the New Orleans Saints. Ditto goes for the Kansas City Chiefs. Of course, you could go for the long shot and place a bet on the the New York Jets at +20000 or perhaps the San Francisco 49ers at +15000. But maybe you think the Patriots will make it once more, in which case you’d only see $250 for your $100.

 

Then again, it’s not over till the fat lady sings and every team has a shot at being this year’s champs, so might as well get your bets in early before the odds change ! 

OMG! NFL Wagering and College Football Wagering are Not The Same!

 

There are at least a half-dozen factors that separate college football betting from NFL betting. For starters, action on college football is much more likely to come from sophisticated bettors, known as “sharps” or “wiseguys”, who often possess some insight or kernel of information that may provide them with an edge against the house. Experienced bet takers know not to treat heavy activity on an obscure game, such as East Carolina versus Wake Forest, as casually as they might deal with increased wagering interest on a marquee NFL game such as a Redskins-Cowboys confrontation. For that reason, bookmakers usually move college football betting lines quickly, often one full point at a time. In general, it takes more money to move an NFL betting line(for example, NFL betting at Skybook ) and when it is moved, usually it is by only half a point.

Largely because of a lack of proficiency in the kicking game, key numbers such as 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14 are not nearly as sacrosanct in college football betting as they are in the NFL. College football games just do not fall on those numbers as often as they do in NFL contests.

We may never again see a three-touchdown favorite in the NFL but lines of -30, -40, or even -50 are not that uncommon in the college gridiron game. Oddsmakers and bookmakers also find college totals more difficult to gauge because some coaches try to impress those who have a vote in the polls by running up the score. Others, feel that a third-string player’s reward for practicing all week is to get to play in a blowout. It’s just these types of unique uncertainties that compel bookmakers to shift college “over/under” numbers more quickly than they move NFL totals.

It’s also the nature of college football that personnel change every year. This makes early season evaluation more difficult and leads bet takers to move lines and totals more quickly, especially in September and early October when the season is still young. There is personnel movement in the NFL too, of course, but mostly it involves players of established ability moving from team to team. In college football, you’re always dealing with fresh faces.

By collective bargaining agreement, each week, the NFL publishes a comprehensive list of injured players and their status. Sure, there are mistakes and abuses and players who have been listed as “doubtful” have played while those regarded as “probable” have not but overall, the list is accurate. On the other hand, colleges are under no obligation to announce the status of injured or disciplined football players. This vagueness over availability sometimes can create opportunities in college football betting. Consequently, bookmakers are wary if too much wagering attention is paid to one team.

When it comes to parlay card numbers, you are much more apt to see a slight gap between those prices printed on cards and those posted on the board in the NFL than you are in college football. The key element is that bookmakers can more accurately predict the public inclination for an NFL game than they can for a college football game. It’s not unusual then for traditionally popular team such as Dallas or a “hot” team such as Oakland, to be listed as a 7 1/2-point favorite on a parlay card but just a 6 1/2 or 7-point choice on the board. Through experience, bookmakers know that “public” teams such as the Cowboys, as well as “now” teams such as the Raiders, will be more aggressively played on parlay cards than they are straight up.

Clearly, understanding the differences between college football betting and NFL betting is essential to winning.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN COLLEGE AND PRO FOOTBALL:

College Football:

‘Wiseguys’ frequently supply the action

College football betting lines often are moved by a full point at a time

Key numbers are not as important

Personnel changes can make early season analysis difficult

Information on injuries is not always accessible

There’s usually not a disparity between parlay card and board numbers

NFL:

Money from public is prevalent

Betting lines are usually moved by a half-point at a time

Key numbers are VERY important

Personnel changes are less volatile and easier to evaluate

Information on injuries usually is accessible

Parlay card numbers sometimes are intentionally different than prices on the board.

NFL 2016-7 Super Bowl Dark Horses

Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons are 7-4, and just defeated the Arizona Cardinals 38-19 at home. The Falcons are ranked 4th in total offense, and 3rd in passing offense. QB Matt Ryan has looked much more comfortable with an improved offensive line and a steady, reliable run game in Devonte Freeman. The pass defense is ranked 30th but the run defense is ranked 9th, and they are +3 in turnover differential. The Falcons have always been a dominant team in the Georgia Dome, and if they continue to play at a high level they could secure a home playoff game. With the balance they have on offense and the improving defense, we could see this team making a run in the playoffs.
New York Giants: The Giants are 8-3 and are on a 6 game win streak. The Cowboys are the obvious pick to win the NFC East, but the Giants could still sneak in the wild card and make some noise. Eli Manning is an elite QB, and they have one of the best WR trios in football with Odell Beckham Jr., Victor Cruz and rookie Sterling Shepard. The Giants last two super bowl wins, they barely snuck into the playoffs then caught fire. This team has the potential to do that again, with Manning they are never out of a game. The defense has drastically improved from last year as well, ranking 16th in total defense and 5th against the run. The NFC East is always crazy, and we could definitely see the Giants spoiling the Cowboys super bowl run and make a deep run of their own.
Denver Broncos: This is an unconventional pick from the AFC West, most would pick the Kansas City Chiefs. We like the Broncos because of their suffocating defense, they won a Super Bowl with great defense last year and they could make a run again. QB Trevor Siemian has played well, throwing for 2,396 yards 15 TDs and only 7 INTs. The Broncos have proven they can win b y not beating themselves and letting the defense keep the scores close. They still have an opportunity to clinch a playoff berth with games at the Chiefs and a home finale with the Raiders. If they sneak in, they will be a tough out with that stout defense and can cause problems to the explosive offenses in the AFC.

[Analysis by NFL expert Preston Rowe]